Congress and 2008. Why the Democrats Win The Incumbency advantage The Fundraising Advantage The...
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Transcript of Congress and 2008. Why the Democrats Win The Incumbency advantage The Fundraising Advantage The...
Why the Democrats Win
• The Incumbency advantage
• The Fundraising Advantage
• The Retirement Advantage
• The Partisan Advantage
Candidate Quality
• We Vote For members who we trust
• Political Amateurs?
• What is a quality Challenger?
Strategic Politicians and 2008
• The Democrats were willing to Run
• Republicans stayed home, or Retired
Attracting Good Challengers
• The GOP cannot find good challengers
• The Democrats did– In the House
– In the Senate
Voluntary Retirements
• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.
• Why people Retire?
Retirements in the House
• 3 Special Elections in 2007 set the stage
• 23 Retirements and 29 open House seats for the GOP to Defend
• 7 open seats for the Democrats
Retirements in the Senate
• ZERO Democrats retired in 2008
• 5 Republicans– 2 Safe States
– Colorado, New Mexico, and Virgina
Wave Elections
• They usually correct themselves
• 2006 and 2008 featured Democratic Tides
– Unpopular Bush Presidency– Macro Factors
Contextual Factors
• A Sour Mood in the electorate
• 90% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track
• Consumer Confidence was at an all time low
The Bush Legacy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs
The Republican Brand
• A Tarnished Image
• Responsibility without Power
• Scandal
• Forced to go on local factors in a national election
A Shift in Partisan Loyalty
• Democrats grew with young voters
• Independents leaned Democratic
• Other Groups Went Democratic
• Key States went Democratic
The House Results
Democrats Republicans Incumbents Reelected 98% 90% Challenger victories 14 5 Open Seats successfully defended 7 (of 7) 17 (of 29) Open Seats captured from Opposition 12 0 Total Seats 257 178 Democratic Net Gain 21
Where the Democrats Won
• Defeating Vulnerable Republicans
• Winning in Districts where Bush Did Poorly
• Winning the Open Seats
The Dynamics
• The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend
– 22 Republican Seats
– 12 Democratic Seats
– 5 open GOP Seats
• A Weak Republican Class
The Results
Democrats Republicans Incumbents Reelected 100% 67% Challenger victories 5 0 Open Seats successfully defended 0 2 Open Seats captured from Opposition 3 0 Total Seats 59 41 Democratic Net Gain 8
Why The Democrats Won
• Open Seats
• National Tides
• Red Senators in Blue States
• Not as big as it could have been