Conflict Analysis

Joakim KreutzDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala

University

Objectives of the Lecture

• Introduce a method to analyse conflicts• Speak a common language; agreement on a

specific terminology• Make a link between conflict analysis and

context analysis in your (change) project

What is Conflict Analysis?

• A method for presenting a systematic analysis of a conflict at a given moment in time, usually with some conclusions relating to e.g. risk assessment, scenario analysis, or conflict sensitivity

Why Conflict Analysis?

• To better understand a conflict for the purpose of improving decision-making, e.g. in regards to conflict prevention, management, and resolution

• Improved understanding of the context in which different organizations work and their role in it

• Relevant both for actors working ”on” and ”in” conflict

• Relevant both from perspective of ”Do No Harm” and ”Do Maximum Good”

• Relevant for all types of conflicts, not just armed/political

How to do a Conflict Analysis?

• Different analytical frameworks and

methodologies available

Methods: desk study or in the field, outside

(neutral) or inside (partial) view

Sources: reports and previous analyses, official

documents and statements, academic studies,

interviews, stakeholder workshops

Definition of conflict

”A social situation in which a minimum of two

actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same

moment in time an available set of scarce

resources”

(Wallensteen 2007:

15)

Level of Analysis?

• International

• Regional

• Country

• Community/Group

• Individual

Basic Structure for Conflict Analysis?

• Parties (actors)

• Conflict Issues

• Conflict Behaviour

• Conflict Attitudes

• Conflict Dynamics

• Conflict Resolution

1. Parties (Actors)

• Primary parties: The central actors who are

pursuing the issues at stake in the conflict

• Secondary parties: Actors who support the

primary parties and indirectly affect the

dynamic of the conflict

• Third parties: Actors who are outside the

conflict and are helping the primary parties to

resolve it

The Character of the Parties

• Composition of the party: degrees of cohesion

or fragmentation

• Type of leadership

• Basis for mobilization

• The relationship between the group and its

constituency and with the society at large

Power Resources and Power Relations

• Power resources of the primary parties

• Economic, military, political

• International status, popular support, alliances,

legitimacy

• Power relations between the parties (primary

+ secondary)

• Symmetry

• Assymetry

Questions

• Who are the primary parties to the conflict?

• What are the characters of the primary

parties?

• Who are the secondary parties?

• Is there a third party?

• What power resources do the primary parties

have?

• What is the power relation between the

parties?

• Are power relations symmetrical or

assymetrical?

Conflict Issues

Attitudes

Behaviour

The Conflict Triangle

2. Conflict Issues

• Positions (subjective demands)

• Offensive or defensive positions (Change/status quo)

• General or specific positions

• Underlying interests (values, resources)

• Material or Immaterial interests

• Divisible or non-divisible interests

• Absolute or relative interests

Questions

• What is the issue at stake or the

incompatibility in question?

• What are the parties positions (subjective

definition) in regards to the issue?

• Are the positions offensive or defensive?

• Are the positions expressed in general or

specific terms?

• What are the underlying interests that can

explain the parties’ positions?

3. Conflict Behaviour

• The actions and strategies that parties use to

reach their goals or prevent others from

reaching their goals

• Violent and non-violent actions

• The targeting of certain individuals, groups or

regions; gender aspects of violence, targeting

of civilians• Selective or indiscriminate?

Questions

• What types of conflict behaviour have been

used in the conflict?

• Are some groups in society more likely to be

targeted for violence than others?

4. Conflict Attitudes

• Emotional or psychological states in a conflict

situation; fear, hate, anger, suspicion

• Cognitive processes; negative attitudes and

perceptions

• Influence on norms; individual, communal,

societal

Questions

• Which conflict attitudes are commonly

displayed by the conflicting parties and/or in

society at large?

• Try to differentiate between emotional states and

cognitive processes

• Which norms are prevalent in society?

• In general? As an effect of the conflict?

• On violence, on governance, on gender roles?

5. Conflict Dynamics

• A comprehensive analysis of conflict dynamics

inlcude a study of the causes of conflict, the

context in which the conflict takes place, and

its development over time

• The key concern is how the different

components of the conflict triangle – issues,

behavior and attitudes – relate to each other

over time

What is escalation?

Two different understandings:

• From light to heavy tactics (more destructive)

and/or geographical spread of violence

• But also an intensification of the conflict as a

whole – in all corners of the Conflict Triangle

What happens when conflicts escalate?

• From few to many parties (new parties, splits,

new alliances)

• From few and small to many and large issues

• From specific to general issues

• From light to heavy tactics (more destructive

behaviour)

• From doing well (absolute gain) to winning

(relative gain) to hurting Other (Other’s loss)

Why do they escalate?

• Temporary emotional states (fear, anger,

blame) lead to structural (permanent) changes

at different levels of analysis

• Individual level: e.g. stereotypes, deindividualization,

dehumanization

• Group level: e.g. group polarization, militant leaders

• Community level: community polarization,

segregation

Escalation and conflict resolution?

• These structural changes tend to become self-

reinforcing through the development of self-

confirmatory mechanisms at different levels of

analysis

• Individual level: self-fulfilling prophecy, selective information

processing

• Group level: development of vested interests, war economy, war

political order

• Community level: destruction of crosscutting organisations,

disappearance of neutral parties

Conflict Issues

Attitudes

Behaviour

The Conflict Triangle

Questions

• Has the parties changed over time?

• Has the conflict issues changed over time? Has

more issues been added? Have they been

generalized?

• Has the conflict behaviour of the parties

changed over time?

• Has there been phases of escalation and de-

escalation?

• Has the conflict attitudes of the parties

changed over time?

• Has there been a polarization of the conflict?

6. Conflict Resolution

• Change of/in parties

• Different mechanisms in place for resolving

issues through redrawing of territorial

boundaries or governance arrangements

• Addressing conflict behaviour through

ceasefires and DDR & SSR processes

• Adressing conflict attitudes through confidence

building measures, reconciliation, transitional

justice

Questions

• In what way does the suggested solution affect

the structure of the parties to the conflict?

• How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the

conflict issues?

• In what ways does it address conflict

behaviour?

• Does it affect the social relations between the

parties and their conflict attitudes?

Questions +1

• In what way does the suggested solution affect

the structure of the parties to the conflict?

• How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the

conflict issues?

• In what ways does it address conflict

behaviour?

• Does it affect the social relations between the

parties and their conflict attitudes?

• How does conflict resolution affect other

parties (violent and non-violent)?

Thank you!