CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity Financial Overview August 2006.
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Transcript of CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity Financial Overview August 2006.
page 2
Overview of Financial Model
• Revenues exclusively based on advertising– In-stream video ads– Banner ads / ad-words– Sponsored search
• Assumes growth in unique user based and conservative CPMs
• COGS consist of streaming and web site bandwidth• Additional operating expenses primarily relate to three categories, each growing with the business over time
– Personnel– Infrastructure– Marketing
Revenues Revenues
CostsCosts
Adjustments to Management Model
Adjustments to Management Model
Investment and Return Investment and Return
• Grouper management provided an initial financial model • SPE base case adjusted the model
– Maintain management projections for unique user base through FY2008– Decrease CPMs over time– Increased total expenses by 5-10% of revenue
• Investment includes total consideration of $65MM– $52.5MM at closing– $12.5MM contingent on performance
• Discounted pre-tax cash flow analysis performed with a discount rate of 16.5% (in-line with SPE’s normal rate); terminal EBIT multiple of 8.0x
page 3
Comparison of Management Projections and SPE Base Case
Note: Figures provided by company were adjusted to Sony’s fiscal year-end.
SPE Base CaseSPE Base CaseManagement CaseManagement Case
FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
20.9 37.2 53.9 76.3
899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,506.4
171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,251.7
1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,543.6
1.42$ 10.06$ 28.25$ 43.02$ 1.18 5.66 12.80 20.99 0.46 2.87 10.46 19.51
3.07$ 18.60$ 51.50$ 83.51$
1.68$ 6.99$ 15.13$ 22.81$
1.39$ 11.60$ 36.37$ 60.70$
5.36$ 9.41$ 10.95$ 12.34$ 1.63 4.80 5.11 7.90 1.51 2.08 2.39 2.73 1.67 2.07 3.54 4.74 0.08 0.46 1.29 2.09
10.23$ 18.82$ 23.28$ 29.80$
(8.85)$ (7.22)$ 13.09$ 30.91$
FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
20.9 37.2 53.9 72.5
899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,379.1
171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,186.7
1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,393.4
1.59$ 11.80$ 37.34$ 58.31$ 0.85 4.49 11.22 16.87 0.54 3.74 15.28 28.04
2.97$ 20.03$ 63.84$ 103.23$
1.67$ 7.10$ 15.99$ 24.05$
1.29$ 12.93$ 47.85$ 79.18$
4.29$ 7.53$ 9.08$ 10.72$ 0.25 1.10 3.85 7.39 1.51 2.08 2.55 2.99 0.67 0.82 1.10 1.20
- - - -
6.71$ 11.53$ 16.58$ 22.29$
(5.42)$ 1.40$ 31.26$ 56.89$
(millions)
User Activity
End of Period Uniques
Page Views
Total Searches
Total Streams
P&L Performance
In-StreamBanner / Ad-wordsSponsored Search
Total Revenue
Total COGS
Gross Profit
PayrollMarketingG&AInternet, Hardware, SoftwareOther
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Difference Between SPE Base Case and Management Projections
Total Revenue 0.10$ (1.43)$ (12.34)$ (19.72)$
Total COGS 0.01$ (0.10)$ (0.86)$ (1.23)$
Payroll 1.07$ 1.88$ 1.87$ 1.62$ Marketing 1.38 3.70 1.26 0.51 G&A - - (0.16) (0.26) Internet, Hardware, Software 1.00 1.25 2.43 3.54 Other 0.08 0.46 1.29 2.09
Operating Profit (3.43)$ (8.62)$ (18.18)$ (25.99)$
page 4
Grouper Growth Trajectory
Sale of Studio Content
Harvest High Quality User
Content
Promotion of Studio Content
Advertising Revenue
Grow User Base and Ad Inventory
IncreaseInventory
Drive Grouper Revenue
Decrease SPE Marketing Expense,
Increase SPE Sales
SPE Revenue at Higher Margins
SPE Acquires
Content at Lower Cost
Excluded from Financial Model (Potential Upside)Excluded from Financial Model (Potential Upside)Included in Financial ModelIncluded in Financial Model
page 6
Revenue Type
Revenue Drivers
In-Stream
Base of Users
Drivers of Inventory % Sold Revenue (in $mm)
Unique users for Grouper.com
+
Embedded unique user
Total unique users
Banner and Ad-words
Sponsored Search
Streams per unique X
Total uniques=
Total streams
Page views per unique
XTotal uniques
=Page views
% of page views searching
XPage views
=Searches
% of inventory sold(1)(2)
XTotal Streams
=Streaming ads sold
Ads sold per page (2) viewX
Page views=
Ads sold
% of inventory sold (2)
XSearches
=Ads sold
CPMX
Ads sold=
Revenue
CPMX
Ads sold=
Revenue
CPMX
Ads sold=
Revenue
(1) % of inventory sold for in-stream ads assumes pre-roll ads are placed with only 1/4 to 1/3 of videos.(2) % of inventory sold assumed to be highest in United States initially, Rest of World increases over time.
page 7
Revenue Assumptions – SPE Base Case Relative to Management Case
* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.
• Slight increase in FY2009 unique users projected as a result of aggressive forecasting of an additional 3 months for the fiscal year SPE base case
• Same per user stream rates used
• Same % inventory sell through assumptions used
• Overall revenue at 70%-80% of management case– Video CPMs adjusted 85%-90% ($12-$16)– Banner / ad-words CPMs increased slightly– Sponsored search CPMS decreased to a constant $15
• Assumes smaller dedicated sales force based on ability to leverage SPE ad sales
page 8
Revenue Assumptions Comparison
* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.
SPE Projected Base CaseSPE Projected Base CaseManagement CaseManagement Case
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Unique Users (000)
Total Unique Users 20,868 37,211 53,905 76,309
Page Views (000)
Grouper.com PVs/Unique 15.9 25.7 32.9 33.5 Total Page Views 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,506,356
Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 171,474 797,981 1,941,754 3,251,652
Streams (000)
Streams/Total Uniques 10.1 16.6 21.7 22.4 Total Streams 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,543,578
Sell-Through / Inventory
In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 185,086 999,854 2,717,879 4,455,878
% In-Stream Inventory Sold 12.1% 16.8% 22.6% 25.4%
Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 1,152,503 5,703,871 13,222,563 21,713,410
Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7
Sponsored Search (from Searches) 31,000 191,649 697,049 1,300,661
% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 18.1% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%
CPMs / Unit Prices
In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 13.92$ 16.29$ 13.77$ 12.54$
Banner / Ad-words CPMs 1.02$ 0.99$ 0.97$ 0.97$
Sponsored Search CPMs 15.00$ 15.00$ 15.00$ 15.00$
Revenue (000)
In-Stream Revenue 1,424$ 10,061$ 28,247$ 43,019$
Banner / Ad-words Revenue 1,181$ 5,662$ 12,796$ 20,986$
Sponsored Search Revenue 465$ 2,875$ 10,456$ 19,510$
Total Revenue 3,070$ 18,598$ 51,499$ 83,515$
Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)
North America Revenue 1,674$ 8,887$ 21,675$ 35,303$
Asia Revenue 181$ 1,050$ 1,978$ 3,002$
Western Europe Revenue 221$ 1,406$ 3,569$ 5,666$
ROW Revenue 35$ 230$ 503$ 758$
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Unique Users (000)
Total Unique Users 20,868 37,211 53,905 72,491
Page Views (000)
Grouper.com PVs/Unique 15.9 25.7 32.9 33.6 Total Page Views 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,379,074
Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 171,474 797,981 1,941,754 3,186,737
Streams (000)
Streams/Total Uniques 10.1 16.6 21.7 22.4 Total Streams 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,393,449
Sell-Through / Inventory
In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 185,086 999,854 2,717,879 4,385,588
% In-Stream Inventory Sold 12.1% 16.8% 22.6% 25.2%
Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 1,152,503 5,703,871 13,222,563 21,365,134
Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7
Sponsored Search (from Searches) 31,000 191,649 697,049 1,274,695
% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 18.1% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%
CPMs / Unit Prices
In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 15.24$ 18.51$ 17.37$ 16.28$
Banner / Ad-words CPMs 0.74$ 0.79$ 0.85$ 0.79$
Sponsored Search CPMs 17.29$ 19.51$ 21.93$ 22.00$
Revenue (000)
In-Stream Revenue 1,586$ 11,800$ 37,339$ 58,311$
Banner / Ad-words Revenue 848$ 4,490$ 11,218$ 16,875$
Sponsored Search Revenue 536$ 3,740$ 15,285$ 28,044$
Total Revenue 2,969$ 20,030$ 63,841$ 103,230$
Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)
North America Revenue 1,495$ 8,996$ 25,833$ 42,260$
Asia Revenue 145$ 964$ 2,871$ 4,350$
Western Europe Revenue 236$ 1,655$ 4,921$ 7,913$
ROW Revenue 28$ 202$ 645$ 1,051$
page 10
Market Support for Grouper Revenue Model
• Grouper will derive advertising revenue through three distinct business models– In-stream video ads– Banners and ad-words on the Grouper.com website– Sponsored searches
• Recent deals validate the overall potential for advertising associated with both user generate video and social networking sites
– Google / MySpace / Newscorp – Google will pay Fox Interactive Media $900M to provide search and advertising for Fox Interactive sites
– Google / MTV – Google agrees to distribute video clips from MTV Networks over the AdSense network
• Market has demonstrated willingness to pay premium CPMs for streaming video ads– Sony experience, independent analysts and industry experts have validated current
online video CPMs to be approximately $20 to $30 (1)
– In-line with traditional TV CPMs and positioned to benefit from growth of online advertising spend
– Grouper model conservatively assumes CPMs to be from $12.50 to $16.30
(1) Josh Bernoff, Forrester Research; Allie Savarino, SVP World of Worldwide Marketing, Unicast; Jeff Lanctot, VP of Media Buying, Avenue A Razorfish.
page 11
Google Strikes $900M Advertising Search Deal With MySpace and Fox Interactive Media Sites
Deal SpecificsDeal Specifics
Google Inc. will provide search and advertising for News Corp.'s MySpace and other Fox Interactive Media sites
Google will pay at least $900 million in advertising revenue to News Corp. over the next four years in an all-cash deal, provided traffic on the sites reaches an undisclosed threshold
Google will install its search boxes and keyword-driven ads
Google also receives the right to sell directly any display ads not sold by Fox
Google Inc. will provide search and advertising for News Corp.'s MySpace and other Fox Interactive Media sites
Google will pay at least $900 million in advertising revenue to News Corp. over the next four years in an all-cash deal, provided traffic on the sites reaches an undisclosed threshold
Google will install its search boxes and keyword-driven ads
Google also receives the right to sell directly any display ads not sold by Fox
ViewsViews
Analysts estimate that the deal could bring Google revenue (net of the $900 million paid to News Corp) of anywhere from $50 million to $200 million
"Google needed to win this deal to lock up the last remaining large and fast growing piece of traffic on the Web today. One thing is certain: Yahoo and MSN would have loved to sign News Corp., but could not make sense of a $900 million guarantee.“ – Jordan Rohan, RBC, August 8, 2006
"While we have highlighted the potential opportunity for Google on the display side for some time, we feel that Google has made limited progress on this front. We applaud this deal as an example of how Google can leverage its relationships and technology to grow an additional revenue stream and monetization models.“ – Benjamin Schachter, UBS, August 8, 2006
Analysts estimate that the deal could bring Google revenue (net of the $900 million paid to News Corp) of anywhere from $50 million to $200 million
"Google needed to win this deal to lock up the last remaining large and fast growing piece of traffic on the Web today. One thing is certain: Yahoo and MSN would have loved to sign News Corp., but could not make sense of a $900 million guarantee.“ – Jordan Rohan, RBC, August 8, 2006
"While we have highlighted the potential opportunity for Google on the display side for some time, we feel that Google has made limited progress on this front. We applaud this deal as an example of how Google can leverage its relationships and technology to grow an additional revenue stream and monetization models.“ – Benjamin Schachter, UBS, August 8, 2006
page 12
The Google Deal Implies Strong Revenue Potential for Grouper
Deal MetricsDeal Metrics Implied Grouper Revenue OpportunityImplied Grouper Revenue Opportunity
Total Deal Revenue $900 MM
Average Annual Revenue $225 MM
MySpace Uniques 54.1 MM
Revenue Per Unique 4.16$
( $ millions)
Unique Users (Avg)
Implied Banner/Ad-
wordsBanner/Ad-
words In-Stream
Sponsored Search TOTAL
FY2006 8.8 $36.6 $1.2 $1.4 $0.5 $3.1
FY2007 29.0 $120.6 $5.7 $10.1 $2.9 $18.6
FY2009 45.6 $189.6 $12.8 $28.3 $10.5 $51.5
FY2009 65.1 $270.7 $21.0 $43.0 $19.5 $83.5
Projected Revenue
page 13
Viacom Aggressively Pursues Stronger Position in Digital Space
Viacom’s MTV Networks Announces Intent to Acquire Atom Entertainment for $200MM
Viacom’s MTV Networks Announces Intent to Acquire Atom Entertainment for $200MM
Viacom announced on 8/09/2006 that they had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Atom Entertainment
The acquisition would serve to further strengthen Viacom’s presence in digital media
Atom Entertainment is a marketer and distributor of broadband entertainment; formed by the 2001 merger of Internet Shockwave.comand AtomFilms
In 2005, Atom acquired the online games portal AddictingGames and the online video site AddictingClips (1.7MM unique users)
This deal would follow acquisitions of other online entities, including: NeoPets, XFire, Y2M, GameTrailers.com and IFILM
Viacom announced on 8/09/2006 that they had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Atom Entertainment
The acquisition would serve to further strengthen Viacom’s presence in digital media
Atom Entertainment is a marketer and distributor of broadband entertainment; formed by the 2001 merger of Internet Shockwave.comand AtomFilms
In 2005, Atom acquired the online games portal AddictingGames and the online video site AddictingClips (1.7MM unique users)
This deal would follow acquisitions of other online entities, including: NeoPets, XFire, Y2M, GameTrailers.com and IFILM
Viacom Considers Bid for BeboViacom Considers Bid for Bebo
According to the Financial Times, Viacom is potentially evaluating an acquisition of Bebo, a social network similar to MySpace
Bebo is the top site in Ireland and the UK
25MM unique users worldwide as compared to 90MM for MySpace
It is rumored that BT (the telecom group) had offered £300MM for Bebo
Bebo reportedly looking for greater than $1BN
According to the Financial Times, Viacom is potentially evaluating an acquisition of Bebo, a social network similar to MySpace
Bebo is the top site in Ireland and the UK
25MM unique users worldwide as compared to 90MM for MySpace
It is rumored that BT (the telecom group) had offered £300MM for Bebo
Bebo reportedly looking for greater than $1BN
page 14
Blue Chip Companies Are Advertising on Traditional and User-Generated Video Sites
AT&T, Nike, Neutrogena, Above The Influence, Pepsi, Kohl's, Clairol, Neutrogena, Target
Snickers, Altoids, Playstation, Virgin Mobile (w/text message contest), Axe, Nike, Puma
Intel, Oscar Meyer, Hershey's, Moviefone, Kraft, I Can't Believe It's Not Butter
Suave, Tylenol, Zyrtec, Disney, Pampers, Swiffer, Bounty, Mr. Clean
Dr. Pepper, Chili's, Superpages, Neosporin, Mazda, Benadryl, Lipitor, State Farm
Dodge, Honda, Air Force, Toyota, FOX Searchlight, AllTel
Ads by Google, E-Bay, True.com, classmates.com, heavy.com, Blockbuster Online
Sierra Mist, University of Phoenix Online, Cingular, Chili's, Universal Studios
Traditional Advertisers AdvertisersUser Generated
page 15
Online Video CPMs Are Currently $20-$30, In-line with Traditional TV CPMs and Positioned to Benefit From Growth of Online Ad Spend
Industry CommentaryIndustry Commentary
• Josh Bernoff, Forrester analyst
“…the driving force of the online video market is advertising…advertisers are paying $25 per thousand users who see their online commercials, more than they pay for network television”
• Allie Savarino, SVP World of Worldwide Marketing at Unicast
“…while rich media ads on average cost around $10-20 on a cost per thousand basis the video commercials cost around $25-30 for the same rate… a comparable cost with advertising on a US television network to the same number of television viewers for a 15- to 30-second spot.”
• Jeff Lanctot, VP of media buying at Avenue A Razorfish
“Advertisers are now paying about $20 to $30 a CPM for a 15-second spot that pre-rolls a broadband video… one reason advertisers are warming up to Web broadband content is because they can interact with consumers.”
• Trends in Sony Ad Sales
Online video ad components of deals are being priced at CPMs of roughly $30.00. Sony’s advertising partners are demonstrating strong demand for cross-platform packaged deals.
page 16
Television CPMs Have Grown to Reach $23.50, Initial Online Video CPMs Are At a Similar Level
$23.50$22.30$20.30$19.00$19.20$18.10$16.60
$14.60
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CBS ABC NBC FOX WB Average CPM
Source: Nielson Media Research.
CPM Pricing TrendsCPM Pricing Trends
5 yr CAGR: 5.4%
page 17
Media spending does not yetreflect consumption
Advertising dollars are shifting online to address the current gap
2003-’05 US Advertising CAGR
Contribution to Growth
Television:
TV Stations 1.5% 2%
Cable Networks 15.6% 19%
Cable MSOs 8.1% 3%
CBS Net, FOX Net 5.8% 9%
Total Television 7.0% 34%
Magazines 8.9% 5%
Newspapers 3.4% 11%
Radio 0.2% 0%
Outdoor 7.1% 5%
Online 50.4% 45%
Total 8.4% 100%
SUMMARY
Traditional Media 5.1% 55%
Online 50.4% 45%
Total 8.4% 100%
Consumer Time is Shifting Online and Drove 50% Annual Growth in Online Ad Spending Over the Last Three Years
Network TV20%
Cable TV25%
Radio27%
Other11%
Magazines4%
Newspaper5%
Games2%
Internet6%
Network TV24%
Cable TV19%
Radio29%
Newspaper6%
Magazines4%
Other14%
Internet2%
Games2%
1999
2005
page 18
Internet Advertising is Forecast to Grow 22% Annually through 2009, Reaching 25% of the $115BN Domestic Advertising Market
36.6 40.0 39.6 43.2 44.0 47.2 48.2 52.2 53.3
14.214.7 16.3
18.9 21.724.3 26.9
29.733.4
7.16.0 7.3
9.612.6
16.120.0
24.128.2
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Broadcast Netw orks Cable Netw orks Online
US
$ (
Bil
lio
ns
)
Overall ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 10.1%
Broadcast ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 4.9%
Cable/Sat ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 11.4%
Online ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 22.3%
TV
& O
nli
ne
Ad
ve
rtis
ing
Sp
en
d
Source: Veronis Suhler, 2005 Note: Cable/satellite growth expected to be driven by increasing audience share of prime time ratings, ability to target within specific demographic groups, improved sales system; broadcast growth expected to be driven by sustained ratings and ad rates, continued appeal as optimal means to reach large audiences
Online %: 12% 10% 12% 13% 16% 18% 21% 23% 25%
57.9 60.7 63.271.7
78.3
87.695.1
106.0114.9
page 19
Using Yahoo! as a proxy for the global Internet, both traffic and CPMs continue to rise as the Internet becomes a significant play for advertisers.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Q1:03 Q2:03 Q3:03 Q4:03 Q1:04 Q2:04 Q3:04 Q4:04 Q1:05 Q2:05 Q3:05 Q4:05
Ya
ho
o G
lob
al M
on
thly
Un
iqu
e V
isito
rs (
MM
)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Avg
. Mkt
g. S
erv
. Re
ven
ue
/ 1
,00
0 P
ag
es
(RP
M)
Global Monthly Unique Visitors (000's) (a) Avg. Mktg. Serv. Revenue / 1,000 Pages (RPM)Line 3 Line 4Line 5
Growth in Demand for Online Advertising is Driving 25% Annual Growth in Banner Ad CPMs
2003 Avg CPM $1.64
2004 Avg CPM $2.33
2005 Avg CPM $2.642 yr CAGR: 25.6%
page 21
SPE Base Case – COGS Drivers and Assumptions
Cost AssumptionsCost Assumptions
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Streaming Bandwidth
Bandwidth cost per MB per Month 50.00$ Cost of Streaming 1 Video 0.0009$ Cost of Streaming One Page 0.0001$
Total Streams (000) 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,543,578 Streaming Costs 1,386$ 5,388$ 10,836$ 15,838$
Total Page Views (000) 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,506,356 Page View Costs 81$ 306$ 688$ 1,129$
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 77 83
Cost per Head 107$ 140$ 142$ 149$ Total Payroll 5,357$ 9,409$ 10,953$ 12,340$
Marketing
% of Revenue 52.9% 25.8% 9.9% 9.5%Marketing Expense 1,625$ 4,796$ 5,112$ 7,899$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 54.4% 11.1% 6.9% 5.7%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 1,669$ 2,072$ 3,537$ 4,740$
Cost DriversCost Drivers
Bandwidth cost per meg per month 50.00$ MpbsPer day cost 1.67$ Per hour cost 0.07$ Peak to Average (efficiency) 2.0 Calculated Cost per Hour 0.14$
Bitrate for Video 260 KbpsAverage Video Preview 1.5 min# of Videos Played per hour 40# of Vids Played per hr per meg (max usage) 154
• COGS based on 95th percentile pricing with current vendor (GNI), in line with management case
– Bandwidth cost of $50 per meg per month does not assume packaged pricing (negotiated volume discounts)
– Does not assume bandwidth price to decrease over time, although this will likely be the case
– Does not include reduced bandwidth costs associated with the use of P2P file sharing
page 23
Comparison of Operating Costs Drivers and Assumptions
• Operating expense in the SPE base case included adjustments to the Grouper management case
– SPE projected payroll costs reflect increase of 25% to management projections to account for higher salaries and benefits
– Marketing costs are adjusted to reflect the greater of 10% of calendar revenue or $5M
– Initial infrastructure spend increased an additional $1M in first calendar year and $2M each subsequent calendar year
– “Other” cost contingency was added at 2.5% of revenue
Management CaseManagement Case SPE Projected Base CaseSPE Projected Base Case
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 77 83
Cost per Head 107$ 140$ 142$ 149$ Total Payroll 5,357$ 9,409$ 10,953$ 12,340$
Marketing
% of Revenue 52.9% 25.8% 9.9% 9.5%Marketing Expense 1,625$ 4,796$ 5,112$ 7,899$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 54.4% 11.1% 6.9% 5.7%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 1,669$ 2,072$ 3,537$ 4,740$
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 82 90
Cost per Head 86$ 112$ 111$ 119$ Total Payroll 4,286$ 7,527$ 9,080$ 10,718$
Marketing
% of Revenue 8.4% 5.5% 6.0% 7.2%Marketing Expense 248$ 1,100$ 3,849$ 7,387$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 22.5% 4.1% 1.7% 1.2%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 669$ 822$ 1,104$ 1,200$
page 24
Payroll Assumptions – SPE Base Case
Variations to Management Case
• Maintains salaries for key management consistent with Grouper management model
• Assumes additional 25% cushion applied to total overhead numbers
• Lower revenue triggered less need for sales force and advertising support
• Assumes smaller dedicated sales force based on ability to leverage SPE ad sales
* Not yet hired.
FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Total Revenue $3,069,685 $18,597,766 $51,498,524 $83,514,559
Total COGS $1,681,794 $6,994,978 $15,129,335 $22,813,017
Gross Profit $1,387,890 $11,602,788 $36,369,189 $60,701,542
Marketing $1,625,000 $4,795,813 $5,112,294 $7,899,421G&A $1,506,382 $2,082,083 $2,392,610 $2,728,478Internet, Hardware, Software $1,669,000 $2,072,000 $3,536,913 $4,739,652Other $76,742 $464,944 $1,287,463 $2,087,864
Payroll and Headcount $5,357,325 $9,408,891 $10,952,580 $12,340,186
Total Operating Expenses $10,234,450 $18,823,731 $23,281,860 $29,795,602
Operating Profit ($8,846,559) ($7,220,943) $13,087,328 $30,905,941
Amortization (1) ($1,428,571) ($2,857,143) ($2,857,143) ($2,857,143)
EBIT ($10,275,131) ($10,078,086) $10,230,186 $28,048,798
FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Payroll and Headcount $5,357,325 $9,408,891 $10,952,580 $12,340,186
Felser #Salary $110,000 $119,831 $125,823 $127,339 $127,339Tax and Benefits $19,173 $20,132 $20,374 $20,374Total $139,004 $145,954 $147,713 $147,713
Samuel #Salary $110,000 $119,831 $125,823 $127,339 $127,339Tax and Benefits $19,173 $20,132 $20,374 $20,374Total $139,004 $145,954 $147,713 $147,713
Aviv #Salary $130,000 $141,619 $148,700 $150,491 $150,491Tax and Benefits $22,659 $23,792 $24,079 $24,079Total $164,278 $172,492 $174,570 $174,570
Sitrin #Salary $100,000 $108,938 $114,384 $115,763 $115,763Tax and Benefits $17,430 $18,302 $18,522 $18,522Total $126,368 $132,686 $134,285 $134,285
Shambroom #Salary $140,000 $152,513 $160,138 $162,068 $162,068Tax and Benefits $24,402 $25,622 $25,931 $25,931Total $176,915 $185,760 $187,998 $187,998
Amen * 0Salary $0 $0 $0 $0Tax and Benefits $0 $0 $0 $0Total $0 $0 $0 $0
StaffSalary Monthly $8,204 $8,730 $8,958 $8,987Average Months / Year 8.27 10.74 10.65 11.17 Number of Workers 45 62 72 78
Salary $3,051,976 $5,814,022 $6,870,504 $7,827,474Tax and Benefits $488,316 $930,244 $1,099,281 $1,252,396Total $3,540,292 $6,744,266 $7,969,785 $9,079,870
TOTAL $4,285,860 $7,527,112 $8,762,064 $9,872,149
SPE Adjsutment (25%) $1,071,465 $1,881,778 $2,190,516 $2,468,037
SPE Base Case Model $5,357,325 $9,408,891 $10,952,580 $12,340,186
page 26
Valuation Based on SPE Base Case
Valuation ParametersValuation Parameters Discounted Cash FlowDiscounted Cash Flow
7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x
$216 $247 $278 $309
Discount Rate Valuation11.5% $158 $178 $198 $21814.0% 145 163 182 20016.5% 133 150 166 18319.0% 122 137 153 16821.5% 112 126 141 155
Terminal EBIT Multiple
Terminal Value
(1) EBIT reflects operating profit less estimated amortization of technology/software assets totaling $20MM over 7 years. Initial estimate requires third party review for final figures. Assumes transaction close at 9/30/2006.
(2) 4 year discounted pre-tax cash flow analysis (2006-2009) performed with a discount rate of 16.5% (in-line with SPE’s normal rate); terminal EBIT multiple of 8.0x.(3) Total consideration includes $52.5m at closing; $12.5m contingent on performance and paid over the course of 2007 and 2008. (4) Deepwater mark represents cumulative cash position.
(millions) FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Total Revenue 3.07$ 18.60$ 51.50$ 83.51$
Total COGS 1.68$ 6.99$ 15.13$ 22.81$
Gross Profit 1.39$ 11.60$ 36.37$ 60.70$
Total Operating Expenses 10.23$ 18.82$ 23.28$ 29.80$
Operating Profit (8.85)$ (7.22)$ 13.09$ 30.91$
Amortization (1) (1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$
EBIT (10.28)$ (10.08)$ 10.23$ 28.05$
Impact on SPE
DCF Value (2) 149.62$
Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$
NPV 88.99$
IRR 47%
Deepwater Mark (4) Mar-08 (76.36)$
page 28
Grouper Actual Monthly Performance Year-to-Date
(millions) Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06
Operating Metrics
End of Period Uniques - - 0.8 4.5 7.0 6.4 Unique User Growth NM NM NM 455.7% 56.3% -8.7%
Financial Metrics
Revenue $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
COGS $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03
Gross Profit ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.02) ($0.03) ($0.03)Gross Margin NM NM NM NM NM NM
Payroll $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.21 $0.26Marketing $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01G&A $0.04 $0.08 $0.07 $0.07 $0.09 $0.24
Total Operating Expenses $0.24 $0.29 $0.28 $0.28 $0.31 $0.51OpEx as % of Revenue NM NM NM NM NM NM
Operating Profit ($0.24) ($0.29) ($0.28) ($0.30) ($0.34) ($0.54)
(1)
(1) May to June unique user decrease due to change in Yahoo! search engine algorithm.
page 29
Grouper Networks – Management Projections
Note: Figures provided by company were adjusted to Sony’s fiscal year-end.
(millions) FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
User Activity
End of Period Uniques 20.9 37.2 53.9 72.5
Page Views 899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,379.1
Total Searches 171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,186.7
Total Streams 1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,393.4 FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
P&L Performance
In-Stream 1.59$ 11.80$ 37.34$ 58.31$ 53.4% 58.9% 58.5% 56.5%Banner / Ad-words 0.85 4.49 11.22 16.87 28.5% 22.4% 17.6% 16.3%Sponsored Search 0.54 3.74 15.28 28.04 18.1% 18.7% 23.9% 27.2%
Total Revenue 2.97$ 20.03$ 63.84$ 103.23$ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Sales Commission 0.21$ 1.40$ 4.47$ 7.23$ 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%Video Streaming 1.39 5.39 10.84 15.70 46.7% 26.9% 17.0% 15.2%Page View Bandwidth 0.08 0.31 0.69 1.12 2.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1%
Total COGS 1.67$ 7.10$ 15.99$ 24.05$ 56.4% 35.4% 25.1% 23.3%
Gross Profit 1.29$ 12.93$ 47.85$ 79.18$ 43.6% 64.6% 74.9% 76.7%
Payroll 4.29$ 7.53$ 9.08$ 10.72$ 144.3% 37.6% 14.2% 10.4%Marketing 0.25 1.10 3.85 7.39 8.4% 5.5% 6.0% 7.2%G&A 1.51 2.08 2.55 2.99 50.7% 10.4% 4.0% 2.9%Internet, Hardware, Software 0.67 0.82 1.10 1.20 22.5% 4.1% 1.7% 1.2%Other - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Operating Expenses 6.71$ 11.53$ 16.58$ 22.29$ 226.0% 57.6% 26.0% 21.6%
Operating Profit (5.42)$ 1.40$ 31.26$ 56.89$ NM 7.0% 49.0% 55.1%
Percent of Total Revenue
page 30
Management Projections – Assumptions
Revenue Drivers and AssumptionsRevenue Drivers and Assumptions Cost Drivers and AssumptionsCost Drivers and Assumptions
* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Unique Users (000)
Total Unique Users 20,868 37,211 53,905 72,491
Page Views (000)
Grouper.com PVs/Unique 15.9 25.7 32.9 33.6 Total Page Views 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,379,074
Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 171,474 797,981 1,941,754 3,186,737
Streams (000)
Streams/Total Uniques 10.1 16.6 21.7 22.4 Total Streams 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,393,449
Sell-Through / Inventory
In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 185,086 999,854 2,717,879 4,385,588
% In-Stream Inventory Sold 12.1% 16.8% 22.6% 25.2%
Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 1,152,503 5,703,871 13,222,563 21,365,134
Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7
Sponsored Search (from Searches) 31,000 191,649 697,049 1,274,695
% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 18.1% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%
CPMs / Unit Prices
In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 15.24$ 18.51$ 17.37$ 16.28$
Banner / Ad-words CPMs 0.74$ 0.79$ 0.85$ 0.79$
Sponsored Search CPMs 17.29$ 19.51$ 21.93$ 22.00$
Revenue (000)
In-Stream Revenue 1,586$ 11,800$ 37,339$ 58,311$
Banner / Ad-words Revenue 848$ 4,490$ 11,218$ 16,875$
Sponsored Search Revenue 536$ 3,740$ 15,285$ 28,044$
Total Revenue 2,969$ 20,030$ 63,841$ 103,230$
Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)
North America Revenue 1,495$ 8,996$ 25,833$ 42,260$
Asia Revenue 145$ 964$ 2,871$ 4,350$
Western Europe Revenue 236$ 1,655$ 4,921$ 7,913$
ROW Revenue 28$ 202$ 645$ 1,051$
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Streaming Bandwidth
Bandwidth cost per MB per Month 50.00$ Cost of Streaming 1 Video 0.0009$ Cost of Streaming One Page 0.0001$
Total Streams (000) 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,393,449 Streaming Costs 1,386$ 5,388$ 10,836$ 15,702$
Total Page Views (000) 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,379,074 Page View Costs 81$ 306$ 688$ 1,118$
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 82 90
Cost per Head 86$ 112$ 111$ 119$ Total Payroll 4,286$ 7,527$ 9,080$ 10,718$
Marketing
% of Revenue 8.4% 5.5% 6.0% 7.2%Marketing Expense 248$ 1,100$ 3,849$ 7,387$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 22.5% 4.1% 1.7% 1.2%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 669$ 822$ 1,104$ 1,200$
page 31
(1) EBIT reflects operating profit less estimated amortization of technology/software assets totaling $20MM over 7 years. Initial estimate requires third party review for final figures. Assumes transaction close at 9/30/2006.
(2) 4 year discounted pre-tax cash flow analysis (2006-2009) performed with a discount rate of 16.5% and terminal EBIT multiple of 8.0x.(3) Total consideration includes $52.5m at closing; $12.5m contingent on performance and paid over the course of 2007 and 2008. (4) Deepwater mark represents cumulative cash position.
Comparison of Sensitivities on the Operating Model
Upside Case(above management projections)
Upside Case(above management projections)
DownsideDownsideBase Case (below management projections)
Base Case (below management projections)
Increased unique users to 125% of management forecast
Assumes higher CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%
of revenue
Increased unique users to 125% of management forecast
Assumes higher CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%
of revenue
Maintain management projections for unique user base
Assumes average CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%
of revenue
Maintain management projections for unique user base
Assumes average CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%
of revenue
Decreased unique users to roughly equal 80% of management forecast
Assumes lower CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%
of revenue
Decreased unique users to roughly equal 80% of management forecast
Assumes lower CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%
of revenue
A B C
(millions)
Operating Statistics
End of Period Uniques
Page Views
Total Searches
Total Streams
Financial Performance
Total Revenue
Total COGS
Gross Profit
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
Amortization (1)
EBIT
DCF Value (2) 336.77$
Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$
Deepwater Mark (4) Dec-07 (69.25)$
Impact on SPE
DCF Value (2) 90.37$
Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$
Deepwater Mark (4) Sep-08 (81.91)$
Impact on SPE
DCF Value (2) 149.62$
Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$
Deepwater Mark (4) Mar-08 (76.36)$
Impact on SPE
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
20.9 37.2 53.9 76.3
899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,506.4
171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,251.7
1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,543.6
3.07$ 18.60$ 51.50$ 83.51$
1.68$ 6.99$ 15.13$ 22.81$
1.39$ 11.60$ 36.37$ 60.70$
10.23$ 18.82$ 23.28$ 29.80$
(8.85)$ (7.22)$ 13.09$ 30.91$
(1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$
(10.28)$ (10.08)$ 10.23$ 28.05$
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
25.6 46.2 67.2 95.4
1,094.2 4,348.5 9,790.3 16,065.2
213.6 1,025.1 2,494.3 4,177.0
1,816.3 7,428.8 15,011.2 22,007.6
4.77$ 29.71$ 83.12$ 136.89$
2.07$ 9.18$ 20.25$ 30.90$
2.70$ 20.53$ 62.87$ 105.99$
10.37$ 20.13$ 30.14$ 41.90$
(7.68)$ 0.41$ 32.73$ 64.09$
(1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$
(9.10)$ (2.45)$ 29.87$ 61.24$
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
16.2 29.3 42.5 60.1
754.5 2,677.2 6,027.5 9,890.7
140.0 631.1 1,535.6 2,571.6
1,250.7 4,693.4 9,459.4 13,831.0
2.24$ 13.75$ 38.97$ 63.57$
1.35$ 5.44$ 11.81$ 17.83$
0.88$ 8.30$ 27.16$ 45.74$
10.12$ 18.30$ 20.99$ 25.18$
(9.24)$ (10.00)$ 6.17$ 20.57$
(1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$
(10.66)$ (12.86)$ 3.31$ 17.71$
page 32
SPE Projections – Upside Case A
(millions) FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
User Activity
End of Period Uniques 25.6 46.2 67.2 95.4
Page Views 1,094.2 4,348.5 9,790.3 16,065.2
Total Searches 213.6 1,025.1 2,494.3 4,177.0
Total Streams 1,816.3 7,428.8 15,011.2 22,007.6 FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
P&L Performance
In-Stream 2.12$ 15.13$ 43.26$ 67.85$ 44.4% 50.9% 52.0% 49.6%Banner / Ad-words 1.95 10.15 23.75 38.97 40.8% 34.2% 28.6% 28.5%Sponsored Search 0.71 4.43 16.12 30.07 14.8% 14.9% 19.4% 22.0%
Total Revenue 4.77$ 29.71$ 83.12$ 136.89$ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Sales Commission 0.33$ 2.08$ 5.82$ 9.58$ 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%Video Streaming 1.64 6.71 13.55 19.87 34.4% 22.6% 16.3% 14.5%Page View Bandwidth 0.10 0.39 0.88 1.45 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1%
Total COGS 2.07$ 9.18$ 20.25$ 30.90$ 43.4% 30.9% 24.4% 22.6%
Gross Profit 2.70$ 20.53$ 62.87$ 105.99$ 56.6% 69.1% 75.6% 77.4%
Total Operating Expenses 10.37$ 20.13$ 30.14$ 41.90$ 215.0% 65.2% 33.8% 28.1%
Operating Profit (7.68)$ 0.41$ 32.73$ 64.09$ NM 1.4% 39.4% 46.8%
Percent of Total Revenue
page 33
SPE Projections – Upside Case Assumptions
Revenue Drivers and AssumptionsRevenue Drivers and Assumptions Cost Drivers and AssumptionsCost Drivers and Assumptions
A
* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.
Discounted Cash FlowDiscounted Cash Flow
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Streaming Bandwidth
Bandwidth cost per MB per Month 50.00$ Cost of Streaming 1 Video 0.0009$ Cost of Streaming One Page 0.0001$
Total Streams (000) 1,816,333 7,428,829 15,011,176 22,007,554 Streaming Costs 1,640$ 6,707$ 13,552$ 19,868$
Total Page Views (000) 1,094,236 4,348,469 9,790,294 16,065,247 Page View Costs 99$ 393$ 884$ 1,450$
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 88 98
Cost per Head 107$ 140$ 137$ 148$ Total Payroll 5,357$ 9,409$ 12,046$ 14,535$
Marketing
% of Revenue 34.1% 18.3% 9.9% 9.4%Marketing Expense 1,625$ 5,425$ 8,255$ 12,920$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 37.0% 8.3% 6.0% 5.7%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 1,765$ 2,469$ 4,953$ 7,752$
7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x
$449 $513 $577 $641
Discount Rate Valuation11.5% $356 $398 $439 $48114.0% 328 366 404 44216.5% 302 337 372 40619.0% 279 311 343 37521.5% 258 287 317 346
Terminal EBIT Multiple
Terminal Value
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Unique Users (000)
Total Unique Users 25,571 46,224 67,170 95,394
Page Views (000)
Grouper.com PVs/Unique 16.3 25.7 32.9 33.5 Total Page Views 1,094,236 4,348,469 9,790,294 16,065,247
Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 213,599 1,025,060 2,494,312 4,176,964
Streams (000)
Streams/Total Uniques 10.4 16.7 21.8 22.5 Total Streams 1,816,333 7,428,829 15,011,176 22,007,554
Sell-Through / Inventory
In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 222,634 1,243,001 3,392,017 5,566,636
% In-Stream Inventory Sold 12.3% 16.7% 22.6% 25.3%
Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 1,439,937 7,327,002 16,985,263 27,892,321
Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7
Sponsored Search (from Searches) 39,193 246,186 895,406 1,670,786
% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 18.3% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%
CPMs / Unit Prices
In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 17.56$ 19.74$ 16.59$ 15.39$
Banner / Ad-words CPMs 1.35$ 1.39$ 1.40$ 1.40$
Sponsored Search CPMs 18.00$ 18.00$ 18.00$ 18.00$
Revenue (000)
In-Stream Revenue 2,118$ 15,127$ 43,260$ 67,845$
Banner / Ad-words Revenue 1,946$ 10,154$ 23,745$ 38,974$
Sponsored Search Revenue 705$ 4,431$ 16,117$ 30,074$
Total Revenue 4,770$ 29,712$ 83,122$ 136,894$
Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)
North America Revenue 2,522$ 13,970$ 34,842$ 57,699$
Asia Revenue 275$ 1,760$ 4,559$ 7,621$
Western Europe Revenue 436$ 2,836$ 7,553$ 12,681$
ROW Revenue 64$ 440$ 1,207$ 2,043$
page 34
SPE Projections – Base Case B
(1) EBIT reflects operating profit less estimated amortization of technology/software assets totaling $20MM over 7 years. Initial estimate requires third party review for final figures. Assumes transaction close at 9/30/2006.
(2) 4 year discounted pre-tax cash flow analysis (2006-2009) performed with a discount rate of 16.5% (in-line with SPE’s normal rate); terminal EBIT multiple of 8.0x.(3) Total consideration includes $52.5m at closing; $12.5m contingent on performance and paid over the course of 2007 and 2008. (4) Deepwater mark represents cumulative cash position.
(millions) FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
User Activity
End of Period Uniques 20.9 37.2 53.9 76.3
Page Views 899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,506.4
Total Searches 171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,251.7
Total Streams 1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,543.6 FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
P&L Performance
In-Stream 1.42$ 10.06$ 28.25$ 43.02$ 46.4% 54.1% 54.8% 51.5%Banner / Ad-words 1.18 5.66 12.80 20.99 38.5% 30.4% 24.8% 25.1%Sponsored Search 0.46 2.87 10.46 19.51 15.1% 15.5% 20.3% 23.4%
Total Revenue 3.07$ 18.60$ 51.50$ 83.51$ 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Sales Commission 0.21$ 1.30$ 3.60$ 5.85$ 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%Video Streaming 1.39 5.39 10.84 15.84 45.14% 28.97% 21.04% 18.96%Page View Bandwidth 0.08 0.31 0.69 1.13 2.65% 1.64% 1.34% 1.35%
Total COGS 1.68$ 6.99$ 15.13$ 22.81$ 54.79% 37.61% 29.38% 27.32%
Gross Profit 1.39$ 11.60$ 36.37$ 60.70$ 45.21% 62.39% 70.62% 72.68%
Total Operating Expenses 10.23$ 18.82$ 23.28$ 29.80$ 333.40% 101.22% 45.21% 35.68%
Operating Profit (8.85)$ (7.22)$ 13.09$ 30.91$ (288.19%) (38.83%) 25.41% 37.01%
Amortization (1) (1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (46.54%) (15.36%) (5.55%) (3.42%)
EBIT (10.28)$ (10.08)$ 10.23$ 28.05$ (334.73%) (54.19%) 19.87% 33.59%
Impact on SPE
DCF Value (2) 149.62$
Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$
NPV 88.99$ (52.50)$ (6.25)$ (3.75)$ -$
IRR 47%
Deepwater Mark (4) Mar-08 (76.36)$ #####
Percent of Total Revenue
page 35
SPE Projections – Base Case Assumptions
Revenue Drivers and AssumptionsRevenue Drivers and Assumptions Cost Drivers and AssumptionsCost Drivers and Assumptions
B
* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.
Discounted Cash FlowDiscounted Cash Flow
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Streaming Bandwidth
Bandwidth cost per MB per Month 50.00$ Cost of Streaming 1 Video 0.0009$ Cost of Streaming One Page 0.0001$
Total Streams (000) 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,543,578 Streaming Costs 1,386$ 5,388$ 10,836$ 15,838$
Total Page Views (000) 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,506,356 Page View Costs 81$ 306$ 688$ 1,129$
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 77 83
Cost per Head 107$ 140$ 142$ 149$ Total Payroll 5,357$ 9,409$ 10,953$ 12,340$
Marketing
% of Revenue 52.9% 25.8% 9.9% 9.5%Marketing Expense 1,625$ 4,796$ 5,112$ 7,899$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 54.4% 11.1% 6.9% 5.7%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 1,669$ 2,072$ 3,537$ 4,740$
7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x
$216 $247 $278 $309
Discount Rate Valuation11.5% $158 $178 $198 $21814.0% 145 163 182 20016.5% 133 150 166 18319.0% 122 137 153 16821.5% 112 126 141 155
Terminal EBIT Multiple
Terminal Value
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Unique Users (000)
Total Unique Users 20,868 37,211 53,905 76,309
Page Views (000)
Grouper.com PVs/Unique 15.9 25.7 32.9 33.5 Total Page Views 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,506,356
Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 171,474 797,981 1,941,754 3,251,652
Streams (000)
Streams/Total Uniques 10.1 16.6 21.7 22.4 Total Streams 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,543,578
Sell-Through / Inventory
In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 185,086 999,854 2,717,879 4,455,878
% In-Stream Inventory Sold 12.1% 16.8% 22.6% 25.4%
Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 1,152,503 5,703,871 13,222,563 21,713,410
Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7
Sponsored Search (from Searches) 31,000 191,649 697,049 1,300,661
% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 18.1% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%
CPMs / Unit Prices
In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 13.92$ 16.29$ 13.77$ 12.54$
Banner / Ad-words CPMs 1.02$ 0.99$ 0.97$ 0.97$
Sponsored Search CPMs 15.00$ 15.00$ 15.00$ 15.00$
Revenue (000)
In-Stream Revenue 1,424$ 10,061$ 28,247$ 43,019$
Banner / Ad-words Revenue 1,181$ 5,662$ 12,796$ 20,986$
Sponsored Search Revenue 465$ 2,875$ 10,456$ 19,510$
Total Revenue 3,070$ 18,598$ 51,499$ 83,515$
Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)
North America Revenue 1,674$ 8,887$ 21,675$ 35,303$
Asia Revenue 181$ 1,050$ 1,978$ 3,002$
Western Europe Revenue 221$ 1,406$ 3,569$ 5,666$
ROW Revenue 35$ 230$ 503$ 758$
page 36
SPE Projections – Downside Case C
(millions) FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
User Activity
End of Period Uniques 16.2 29.3 42.5 60.1
Page Views 754.5 2,677.2 6,027.5 9,890.7
Total Searches 140.0 631.1 1,535.6 2,571.6
Total Streams 1,250.7 4,693.4 9,459.4 13,831.0 FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
P&L Performance
In-Stream 1.11$ 7.85$ 22.43$ 34.60$ 49.9% 57.1% 57.6% 54.4%Banner / Ad-words 0.76 3.70 8.55 14.06 34.0% 26.9% 21.9% 22.1%Sponsored Search 0.36 2.20 7.99 14.92 16.2% 16.0% 20.5% 23.5%
Total Revenue 2.24$ 13.75$ 38.97$ 63.57$ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Sales Commission 0.16$ 0.96$ 2.73$ 4.45$ 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%Video Streaming 1.13 4.24 8.54 12.49 50.5% 30.8% 21.9% 19.6%Page View Bandwidth 0.07 0.24 0.54 0.89 3.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4%
Total COGS 1.35$ 5.44$ 11.81$ 17.83$ 60.5% 39.6% 30.3% 28.0%
Gross Profit 0.88$ 8.30$ 27.16$ 45.74$ 39.5% 60.4% 69.7% 72.0%
Total Operating Expenses 10.12$ 18.30$ 20.99$ 25.18$ 449.9% 130.7% 51.4% 37.1%
Operating Profit (9.24)$ (10.00)$ 6.17$ 20.57$ NM NM 15.8% 32.4%
Percent of Total Revenue
page 37
SPE Projections – Downside Case Assumptions
Revenue Drivers and AssumptionsRevenue Drivers and Assumptions Cost Drivers and AssumptionsCost Drivers and Assumptions
C
* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.
Discounted Cash FlowDiscounted Cash Flow
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Streaming Bandwidth
Bandwidth cost per MB per Month 50.00$ Cost of Streaming 1 Video 0.0009$ Cost of Streaming One Page 0.0001$
Total Streams (000) 1,250,720 4,693,388 9,459,421 13,831,014 Streaming Costs 1,129$ 4,237$ 8,540$ 12,486$
Total Page Views (000) 754,544 2,677,161 6,027,453 9,890,665 Page View Costs 68$ 242$ 544$ 893$
Payroll
Headcount 50 67 72 77
Cost per Head 107$ 140$ 149$ 149$ Total Payroll 5,357$ 9,409$ 10,747$ 11,483$
Marketing
% of Revenue 72.7% 33.0% 9.9% 9.4%Marketing Expense 1,625$ 4,540$ 3,872$ 6,006$
Infrastructure Technology
% of Revenue 70.3% 14.0% 8.0% 5.7%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 1,573$ 1,928$ 3,109$ 3,604$
7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x
$144 $165 $185 $206
Discount Rate Valuation11.5% $96 $109 $122 $13614.0% 87 99 111 12416.5% 79 90 102 11319.0% 72 82 93 10321.5% 66 75 85 94
Terminal EBIT Multiple
Terminal Value
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009
Unique Users (000)
Total Unique Users 16,237 29,299 42,460 60,134
Page Views (000)
Grouper.com PVs/Unique 15.4 25.7 32.9 33.5 Total Page Views 754,544 2,677,161 6,027,453 9,890,665
Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 139,999 631,084 1,535,638 2,571,573
Streams (000)
Streams/Total Uniques 9.8 16.6 21.7 22.4 Total Streams 1,250,720 4,693,388 9,459,421 13,831,014
Sell-Through / Inventory
In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 146,619 785,027 2,141,293 3,511,037
% In-Stream Inventory Sold 11.7% 16.7% 22.6% 25.4%
Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 938,010 4,510,912 10,457,078 17,172,073
Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7
Sponsored Search (from Searches) 24,915 151,566 551,262 1,028,629
% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 17.8% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%
CPMs / Unit Prices
In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 13.72$ 15.99$ 13.45$ 12.32$
Banner / Ad-words CPMs 0.81$ 0.82$ 0.82$ 0.82$
Sponsored Search CPMs 14.50$ 14.50$ 14.50$ 14.50$
Revenue (000)
In-Stream Revenue 1,115$ 7,852$ 22,431$ 34,600$
Banner / Ad-words Revenue 760$ 3,696$ 8,548$ 14,057$
Sponsored Search Revenue 361$ 2,198$ 7,993$ 14,915$
Total Revenue 2,236$ 13,745$ 38,972$ 63,572$
Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)
North America Revenue 1,202$ 6,485$ 16,710$ 27,744$
Asia Revenue 106$ 692$ 1,823$ 2,879$
Western Europe Revenue 163$ 1,081$ 2,834$ 4,481$
ROW Revenue 20$ 154$ 386$ 580$