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CONFERENCE PROGRAM

Small Area Estimation

3-5 September, Poznan, Poland

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All the technical talks, the poster session and the Welcome Party will be held in

building A, University of Economics, al. Niepodleglosci 10. The conference

banquet will be held in the Wasowo Palace situated 50 km from Poznan. The

workshop will be held in building B, University of Economics, al. Niepodleglosci

12. Lunches will be held in Collegium Historicum, ul. Święty Marcin 78. Maps

with directions to the conference venues are shown on the last page of the

Conference program.

Please visit the conference website for last minute changes in the conference

program.

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Tuesday September 2, 2014 (building B, room 24) The workshop: Small Area Estimation in R (Li-Chun Zhang)

9.30-11.00 - Small Area Estimation in R (part 1)

11.00-11.30 - Coffee Break

11.30-13.00 - Small Area Estimation in R (part 2)

13.00-14.30 - Lunch (Collegium Historicum, ul. Święty Marcin 78)

14.30-16.00 - Small Area Estimation in R (part 3)

16.00-16.30 - Coffee Break

16.30-18.00 - Small Area Estimation in R (part 4)

Wednesday September 3, 2014 (building A) 8.00-9.00 – Registration/Reception (ground floor)

9.00-9.45 – Welcome Session (Aula - second floor)

Rector of the Poznan Univeristy of Economics, Professor Marian Gorynia

President of the Central Statistical Office, Professor Janusz Witkowski

Head of Department of Statistics, Poznan Univeristy of Economics,

Professor Elżbieta Gołata

Central Statistical Office in Poland, Professor Jan Kordos

Department of Statistics, Poznan University of Economics, Dr Marcin

Szymkowiak

9.45-10.50 - Plenary session (Aula - second floor)

9.45 – 10.40 J.N.K. Rao - Inferential issues in model-based small area

estimation: some new developments

10.40 – 10.50 Discussion

10.50-11.20 - Coffee Break (second floor)

11.20-13.00 Invited session - Small Area Methods for Repeated Surveys (room

311) organized by Partha Lahiri (chairman Wayne Fuller)

11.20-11.50 Partha Lahiri - An Overview of Small Area Estimation with

Repeated Survey Data

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11.50-12.10 Jan A. van den Brakel, Sabine Krieg - Small area estimation

with state-space common factor models for rotating panels

12.10-12.30 Enrico Fabrizi, Maria Rosaria Ferrante, Carlo Trivisano -

Estimation of value added for firms cross-classified by region, industry

and size using repeated survey data

12.30–12.50 Carolina Franco, William R. Bell - Alternative Approaches to

Borrowing Information Over Time in Small Area Estimation with

Application to Data from the Census Bureau’s American Community

Survey

12.50-13.00 Discussion

13.00-14.30 - Lunch (Collegium Historicum, ul. Święty Marcin 78)

14.30-16.10 Invited session - SAE: robust and non-parametric methods (room

311) organized by Raymond Chambers (chairman Graham Kalton)

14.30-15.00 Raymond Chambers - Two Recent Developments in Robust

and Semiparametric Small Area Estimation

15.00-15.20 Beate Weidenhammer, Nikos Tzavidis, Timo Schmid, Nicola Salvati - Domain Prediction for Counts using Microsimulation via Quantiles

15.20-15.40 Payam Mokhtarian - On Outlier Robust Small Area Prediction of the Empirical Distribution Function

15.40–16.00 Forough Karlberg - Small Area Prediction for Skewed Data in the Presence of Zeroes

16.00-16.10 Discussion

16.10-16.40 - Coffee Break (second floor)

16.40-18.20 Invited session - SAE in poverty mapping (room 311) organized by

Isabel Molina (chairman Monica Pratesi)

16.40-17.10 Isabel Molina, J.N.K. Rao - An overview of small area

estimation methods for poverty mapping

17.10-17.30 Gauri Datta, Abhyuday Mandal - Small area estimation with uncertain random effects

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17.30-17.50 Domingo Morales - Partitioned area-level time models for

estimating poverty indicators

17.50–18.10 Roy Van der Weide - Estimation of Normal Mixtures in a

Nested Error Model with an Application to Small Area Estimation of

Poverty and Inequality

18.10-18.20 Discussion

18.30-19.15 Poster session (second floor)

Maria Dolores Esteban, Domingo Morales, Augustín Pérez - Area-level

time models in R

Tomasz Józefowski - Applying indirect estimation to special economic

zones

Anna Małasiewicz - Estimation of education level in 2011 National

Census of Population and Housing in Poland using small area estimation

Magdalena Okupniak - Mincer model in small area statistics

Jan Paradysz, Karolina Paradysz - Indirect estimation of disability on the

base of Polish National Census 2011

Alessandra Petrucci, Stefano Marchetti, Caterina Giusti, Nicola Salvati -

Geographic information in area level models for small area estimation

Alina Szkop - Using small area estimators to estimate the number of

disabled people

Sebastian Warnholz, Timo Schmid, Nikos Tzavidis - Robust Fay Herriot

Estimators in Small Area Estimation

Łukasz Wawrowski - Estimation of poverty headcount ratio at LAU 1 level

in Poland using Fay-Herriot model

Kamil Wilak - Trend Estimation in Labour Force Survey in Poland

19.30-20.00 Concert (Aula - second floor)

20.00-21.30 Welcome Party (room 111 – first floor)

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Thursday September 4, 2014 (building A)

9.00-10.50 Invited session - SAE models: selection and checking (room 311)

organized by Danny Pfeffermann (chairman Elżbieta Gołata)

9.00-9.40 Danny Pfeffermann - Model Selection and Checking for Small Area Estimation (30 minutes), Graham Kalton – discussant (10 minutes)

9.40-10.00 Jay Breidt, Daniel Hernandez-Stumpfhauser, Jean D. Opsomer - Variational Approximations for Selecting Hierarchical Models of Circular Data in a Small Area Estimation Application

10.00-10.20 Jiraphan Suntornchost, Partha Lahiri - Variable selection for Linear Mixed Models with Applications in Small Area Estimation

10.20–10.40 Yahia El Horbaty - A Simple Score Test for Random Effects with Application to Small Area Models

10.40-10.50 Discussion

10.50-11.20 - Coffee Break (second floor)

11.20-13.00 Invited session - SAE in Official Statistics (room 311) organized by

Jan Kordos (Parallel session) (chairman William Bell)

11.20-11.50 Jan Kordos - Small area estimation in official statistics and

statistical thinking

11.50-12.10 Danute Krapavickaite, Tomas Rudys - Application of small area estimation methods for Lithuanian Labour force survey data

12.10-12.30 Jan Paradysz, Karolina Paradysz - Indirect estimation of

disability on the base of Polish National Census 2011

12.30–12.50 Jan Kubacki, Alina Jędrzejczak - Small area estimation under

spatial SAR model

12.50-13.00 Discussion

11.20-13.00 Invited session - Teaching SAE (room 407) organized by Risto

Lehtonen (Parallel session) (chairman Gauri Datta)

11.20-11.50 Risto Lehtonen - Experiences and challenges in teaching small area estimation

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11.50-12.10 Jan Pablo Burgard, Ralf Münnich - SAE teaching using simulations

12.10-12.30 Elżbieta Gołata, Tomasz Klimanek - Challenges facing academics and the NSI in SAE education

12.30–12.50 Esther Lopez Vizcaino Lombardía Cortiña, M. José, Domingo Morales - mme: An R package for small area estimation with multinomial mixed models

12.50-13.00 Discussion

13.00-14.30 - Lunch (Collegium Historicum, ul. Święty Marcin 78)

14.30-15.35 - Plenary session (room 311)

14.30 – 15.25 Malay Ghosh - Benchmarked Empirical Bayes Estimators

for Multiplicative Area Level Models

15.25 – 15.35 Discussion

15.35-16.00 - Coffee Break (second floor)

16.00-17.40 Contributed session 1 (room 311) (chairman Wojciech Roszka)

16.00-16.15 Charlotte Articus, Jan Pablo Burgard, Ralf Münnich - A Finite Mixture Fay-Herriot Model for the Estimation of Regional Rental Prices

16.15-16.30 Yuki Kawakubo, Tatsuya Kubokawa - Modified conditional AIC in linear mixed models

16.30-16.45 Shonosuke Sugasawa, Tatsuya Kubokawa - Estimation and Prediction Intervals in Transformed Linear Mixed Models

16.45–17.00 Bac Tran, Partha Lahiri - An Evaluation of Design-Based properties of Different Small Area Estimators Using Data from the U.S. Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll

17.00-17.15 Imanol Montoya, Aramendi, J., Garmendia, I., Iztueta A. -

Mixed models for longitudinal data with applications to small area

statistics in the Basque Statistical Office

17.15-17.30 Mauno Keto, Erkki Pahkinen - On sample allocation for efficient small area estimation

17.30-17.40 Discussion

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16.00-17.40 Contributed session 2 (room 407) (Isabel Molina)

16.00-16.15 Stephen Haslett - The role of contextual variables in small area estimation of poverty

16.15-16.30 Włodzimierz Okrasa - Spatial Dynamics of Community Well-Being. Patterns of inequality of local deprivation, Poland 2004-2012

16.30-16.45 Marcin Szymkowiak, Łukasz Wawrowski, Andrzej Młodak – Mapping poverty at the level of subregions in Poland using indirect estimation

16.45–17.00 Sumonkanti Das - Back Transformation Bias in Poverty Mapping

17.00-17.15 Enrico Fabrizi, Maria Rosaria Ferrante, Carlo Trivisano -

Hierarchical Beta regression models for the estimation of poverty and

inequality parameters in small areas

17.15–17.30 Trijya Singh - Estimation Of Rates And Proportions For Small Areas When Covariates Are Measured With Error

17.30-17.40 Discussion

16.00-17.40 Contributed session 3 (room 408) (chairman Jan van den Brakel)

16.00-16.15 Harm Jan Boonstra - Hierarchical Bayesian Small Area Estimation with R

16.15-16.30 Claudia Baldermann, Timo Schmid, Nicola Salvati - A robust unit-level model for small area estimation allowing for spatial non-stationarity

16.30-16.45 Tomas Hobza, Domingo Morales - MSM estimation and EBP in unit-level logit mixed models

16.45–17.00 Junni Zhang, John Bryant - Full Bayesian Benchmarking of Small Area Estimation Models

17.00-17.15 Jerzy Wieczorek, Michael Pane, Rebecca C. Steorts -

Struggles in Small Area Estimation: Benchmarking and Weighting

17.15-17.30 Bart Buelens, Jan van den Brakel - Covariate selection for small area estimation in repeated surveys

17.30-17.40 Discussion

17.45 – Bus to Wąsowo

19.30-24.00 Conference Banquet – The Hardt Palace in Wąsowo

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Friday September 5, 2014 (building A)

9.00-10.40 Invited session - SAE applications (room 311) organized by Ralf

Münnich (Parallel session) (chairman Roy van der Weide)

9.00-9.30 Ralf Münnich - Small area applications: some remarks from a design-based view

9.30-9.50 Ugarte, MD, Adín, A., Goicoa, T., Militino, A.F., López‐Abente, G. - Space‐time analysis of young people brain cancer mortality in Spanish provinces

9.50-10.10 Rebecca C. Steorts - Constrained Smooth Bayesian Estimation

10.10–10.30 William R. Bell, Mark Seiss - A Modeling Approach to Estimating the Mean Squared Error of Synthetic Small Area Estimators

10.30-10.40 Discussion

9.00-10.40 Invited session - Benchmarking, design issues and nonresponse in

SAE (room 407) organized by Stefano Falorsi (Parallel session) (chairman

Michel Hidiroglou)

9.00-9.30 Andrea Fasulo, Michele D’Alo’, Lorenzo Di Biagio, Stefano Falorsi, Fabrizio Solari - Benchmark constraints for space and time unit level EBLUP estimators

9.30-9.50 Li-Chun Zhang, Alison Whitworth - Benchmarked synthetic small area estimation

9.50-10.10 Serena Arima, Gauri S. Datta, Brunero Liseo - Multivariate Fay-Herriot model with structural measurement error

10.10–10.30 Janusz Wywiał - On sampling design proportional to function of auxiliary variable order statistics

10.30-10.40 Discussion

10.40-11.10 - Coffee Break (second floor)

11.10-12.50 Invited session - Population census and SAE (room 311) organized

by Li-Chun Zhang (Parallel session) (chairman Stephen Haslett)

11.10-11.40 Li-Chun Zhang - Census and SAE: Population size estimation

11.40-12.00 Ralf Münnich - Small area estimation in the German Census 2011

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12.00-12.20 Paul Williamson, Karyn Morrissey, Ferran Espuny-Pujol - Survey reweighting as a means to SAE

12.20–12.40 Angela Luna-Hernandez, Li-Chun Zhang - Multivariate Generalized Structure Preserving Estimation

12.40-12.50 Discussion

11.10-12.50 Invited session - Other topics related to SAE (room 407) organized

by Domingo Morales (Parallel session) (chairman María Dolores Ugarte)

11.10-11.40 Wayne Fuller, Andreea Erciulescu - Small Area Prediction under Alternative Model Specifications

11.40-12.00 Domingo Morales, Miguel Boubeta, María José Lombardía - Empirical best prediction in Poisson mixed models

12.00-12.20 M.A. Hidiroglou, Victor Estevao - A comparison of small area and direct estimators via simulation

12.20–12.40 Monica Pratesi, Fosca Giannotti, Caterina Giusti, Stefano Marchetti, Dino Pedreschi, Nicola Salvati - Area level SAE models with measurement errors in covariates: an application to sample surveys and Big data sources

12.40-12.50 Discussion

13.00-14.30 - Lunch (Collegium Historicum, ul. Święty Marcin 78)

14.30-15.30 – Panel discussion (Aula – second floor) - The Newest

Achievements in SAE both in the Theoretical and Practical Field

Organizer and Chair: Elżbieta Gołata

Panelists:

Raymond Chambers

Jan Kordos

Partha Lahiri

Risto Lehtonen

Isabel Molina

Domingo Morales

Ralf Münnich

Danny Pfeffermann

LiChun Zhang

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15.30-16.00 - Coffee Break (second floor)

16.00-17.10 Contributed session 4 (room 311) (chairman Jan Kubacki)

16.00-16.15 Renato Salvatore, Maria Chiara Pagliarella - Spatio-temporal time-varying effects models and state-space models with spatial structure: an assessment of their efficiency in small area estimation

16.15-16.30 Tomasz Klimanek - Spatial Approach In Indirect Estimation Of Some Labor Market Characteristics On Rural Areas

16.30–16.45 Tomasz Żądło - On measuring prediction accuracy in small area estimation in the multivariate case

16.45-17.00 Wojciech Roszka - Creating small area spatial microdata for

multidimensional labor market analysis

17.00-17.10 Discussion

16.00-17.10 Contributed session 5 (room 407) (chairman Marcin Szymkowiak)

16.00-16.15 Alina Potrykowska - New pattern of migration in Poland. A migration policy perspective

16.15-16.30 Grażyna Dehnel, Jacek Kowalewski - The tax register and the social security register in estimation methodology of short-term business statistics in Poland

16.30-16.45 Mossamet Nesa, Robert G.Clark, Carole L.Birrell - Adults Health Status and Behaviors in New Zealand: An Application of Multivariate Fay-Herriot Model

16.45-17.00 Andrius Čiginas - On a concept of similarity

17.00-17.10 Discussion

16.00-16.55 Contributed session 6 (room 408) (chairman Tomasz Józefowski)

16.00-16.15 Enes Ertad Eslu - Small Area Estimation With Data Mining Techniques: A Case Study For Turkey

16.15–16.30 Maciej Beręsewicz - Big Data for Small Area Estimation or Small Area Estimation for Big Data?

16.30-16.45 Hanna Gruchociak - Computational problems in the selection of variables for multilevel models using stepwise regression

16.45-16.55 Discussion

17.15-17.45 Closing ceremony (room 311)

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MAPS

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