Conceptualizing infrastructure-systems as socio-technical autocatalytic processes Implications for economic infrastructure performance!

Alexander Otto & Igor Nikolic

Cambridge, 27 March 2014

Information Infrastructure & Long-term Infrastructure Evolution Empirical  and  es.mated  GDP,  US  1950-­‐2000  

GDP  inde

x  (1900=1)   GDP  

without  ICT  

without  Exergy  Efficiency  

Ayres  &  Warr,  2009  

Grady  et  al.  Nature  Communica.ons,  2012  

Universal Darwinism

Varia.on,  Selec.on,  Replica.on  of  Memes  

Universal Darwinism

Universal Darwinism

Co-­‐Shaping  of  Fitness  Landscapes  

Bone and Bane of Complexity

The Power of auto-catalysis

Physical  loops  

Network Effect

Connectivity Effect

Physical scale effects

Economies of Scale

The Power of auto-catalysis

Meme.c  Loops  

Framing Effects

Issue linking

Social influence networks

Institutions

The Power of auto-catalysis

The  Physical-­‐Meme.c  Loop  

Perception of the

Environment

Ideas, Wishes, Plans

Complex Language

Technology embodies

ideas

Infrastructure as collective Technology

Infrastructure as

environment

Multiple Sectors, Actors, Influences

Memetic Space Physical Space

Framing Effects

Issue linking

Social influence networks

Institutions

Network Effect

Connectivity Effect

Physical scale effects

Economies of Scale

Timescales of Change

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

Companies  

Technologies   Infrastructures   Culture  

Ins.tu.ons  Climate  

Exergy space Memetic space

A Generic Model of Infrastructure System Evolution

A Generic Model of Infrastructure System Evolution

§  Integrating with other activities in WS3 of ITRC

A new economic geography model with Infrastructure with Robert Carlsson, Jim Hall

A generic model of integrated Infrastructure capacity and demand allocation and planning

with Beate Dirks, Jim Hall

§  Completing and testing the demonstrator

§  Develop case studies and collaborations (e.g. TU Delft)

Next  Steps