CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving

Flexibility, Improving science

Mark Janssen – LADCOCMAS CONFERENCE

October 6-8, 2008

Chapel Hill, North Carolina

What is CONCEPT?

• Open Source PostgreSQL based chemical transport emissions model

• Integrated GIS(postgis), fully spatially enabled

• Data and code transparency is a critical element to understand how data will be processed.

CONCEPT Emissions Model

• Foundation of development community• Point and Area - Improved Temporal• Nonroad – Runs day specific

met/Temporal• Link Level Onroad Mobile• Process Based Ammonia • Internal GIS for visualization, spatial

allocation. Spatial processing just happens.

Recent CONCEPT Developments

• Process Based Ammonia Model

• Biogenics and MEGAN

• Link based onroad QA.

• Google Earth implementation

• Base “N” 2005 inventory beyond RPO’s

Focus of Improvements

• Data Transparency, Can we understand the data we are using: Google Earth, Onroad QA,

• Updated Science: Megan, Process based NH3 model

• Improved Performance: NH3 Model

• Development and use of model in components that are most different from existing tools.

UC Davis/Riverside Process Based Agricultural Ammonia

• Consider and analyze all physical, chemical and biochemical processes and reactions that take place and influence ammonia emission rate,

• Employ processed based mechanistic and empirical models

• Keep mass balances for the flow of nitrogen through each component of an animal waste management system.

• New work to create C++ version of the model that is fast enough to build national inventory.

Predicted NH3 Emissions from Dairy Lagoon under Different pH(H=25ft and TAN=450mg/L, Fresno)

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Predicted NH3 Emissions from Dairy Lagoons at Extreme Conditions(Fresno)

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pH=7.8, TAN=600mg/L, H=10ft

Why High Resolution NH3

• Wintertime PM2.5 nitrate peak critical to northern 24 hour PM.

• Early modeling seem to indicate NH3 is the limiting pollutant.

• Ambient data and processed based model indicate 4x higher emissions on these days.

CONCEPT Onroad

• Link based onroad inventory

• Enhanced temporal allocation.

• T3 tool translates from common Travel Demand Models.

• Slow to run, but able to resolve many interesting things. 40% drop in NOX in Detroit on weekends due to HDDV changes. Not happening in Chicago.

Interstate Vehicle Mix by State and Urban/Rural

Vehicle mix

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How Link Level Data Changes QA

• Current HPMS county level inventories are hard to test against reality.

• New methods result in ability to ask “What are the attributes of a link at a specific hour.”

• Example Boreman Expressway +50% HDDV congested to 20mph at 3AM

• MOBILE6 inputs in database/GIS so easier to ask difficult questions. Example, fleet age distributions of.

Motor Vehicles

MEGAN Biogenics Model

• Implement MEGAN biogenics code into CONCEPT.

• Must match photochemical model species with MEGAN species.

• Must parse 54 Organic Species to CAMx SOA Species– TOLA, XYLA, ISP, CG3, SQT, TRP

Comparing MEGAN and BIOME Emissions

Comparison of MEGAN and EMS/BIOME (BEIS3soa) isoprene (July 1, 2002 day)

MEGAN predicts similar total daily tons over the modeling domain as BIOME

MEGAN estimates more isoprene in the central U.S.

Base KBase J

Base M2Base M1

Google Earth In CONCEPT

• CONCEPT has an integrated full feature GIS. Integrated means all tables are spatially enabled. CYID map

• Google earth cannot handle large data sets. 24 hours of 12km data set for regional grid is too much.

• Must dissolve cell boundaries for similar cells. • Project from RPO Lambert to Google Earth(Geo)• Mostly for non-modeler inventory folks as a QA

tool.

Future of Google Earth in CONCEPT

• Export diagnostic reports as Google earth input, IE. Large sources with problematic coordinates

• Export link level characteristics for onroad and rail traffic.

• Mostly for non-modelers to QA inventory problem with tools publicly available.

• People take ownership of inventory when they can look at it at the neighborhood level.

Base “N”

• First LADCO inventory that will use CONCEPT for all sectors.

• Remaining sectors are those most similar to existing models SMOKE/EMS. (Point,Area).

• SIP timing requires that all inventory science and model development done by June 1st 2010

Beyond RPO’s• ERTAC, Group of eastern states with a goal of

improving inventories for regional analysis.• Work will be done by states/regional groups

Marine and Rail InventoriesArea Source ComparabilityAgricultural NH32005 Modeling InventoryEGU temporalization methods

from CEM

Canadian emissions (2005/2008)Evaluation of IPMPrimary OC from onroadWildfires/Prescribed burns

Temporal modeling profiles.

The People That Did the Work

• Biogenics– Jim Wilkinson- Alpine Geophysics– Kirk Baker – LADCO

• Onroad – Allison Pollack et al Environ

• Google Earth – Jim Wilkinson – Alpine Geophysics

• Ammonia Model – Zion Wang – UC Riverside– Ruhong Zhang – UC Davis

Model

This!!