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  • Composite RE Index for MENA Region Master Thesis Presentation

    In

    RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY

    Kassel University, Cairo University

    Ahmed Salama 19 March 2013

    1

  • Contents

    1. Definitions of Composite Index elements

    2. Targeted Countries

    3. Related Work

    4. Aim of the research

    5. Proposed Framework for Composite RE Index

    6. Weights of Composite RE Index.

    7. Scoring Systems for some Indicators 8. Mathematical Methodology.

    9. Results of Indices.

    10. Robustness Analysis.

    11. Areas for future improvement

    12. Future Work

    13. Conclusion

    14. References

    2

  • Indicator 1 Indicator 2 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 Indicator 6 Indicator 5

    Index 2 Index 1

    Composite Index

    Statistical Data Questionnaire

    3

    1- Definitions of Composite Index elements

  • 2- Targeted Countries

    • A composite RE Index has been constructed for RCREEE

    Member States.

    Ref. MAHMOUD Maged, October 2012, Renewable Energy Development Tracks in MENA Region, Egyptian

    Power & Electricity Summit, Cairo, Egypt

  • 3- Related Work

    RE country attractiveness Indices

    Experts

    RE Market Competence Index

    (Elrefaie, March 2012) Motivation

    Brit Samborsky RE Framework

    (September,2012) RE Barriers

    5

  • 4- Aim of the research

    1- To benchmark countries through a newly developed Index by assessing:

    • RE market Structures.

    • Policy Framework.

    • Institutional Capacity.

    • Finance and Investment.

    • Different RE technologies.

    2- To make a robustness analysis for the results.

    3- Able to clearly display the weak areas.

    6

  • 5- Proposed Framework for Composite RE Index

    General Index

    Institutional Capacity

    Market structure

    Policy Frame work

    Finance & Investment

    Wind Index CSP Index PV Index

    7

  • Market structure

    Private sector penetration

    Independent power producer (IPP)

    Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

    availability

    Auto producer

    Grid connectivity/access

    Interconnection availability

    Capacity of Interconnection lines

    Grid Code availability

    Priority Dispatch

    7 indicators

    8

  • Policy Frame work

    Strategy

    Announcement of RE Target with a Road map

    % of RE share in MW

    Electricity retail price

    (residential)

    RE Regulations

    NET Metering

    Competitive bidding

    Feed in Tariff

    6 indicators

    9

  • Institutional Capacity

    Governance quality

    Ease of doing Business Index

    Corruption perception index

    RE Institutions

    No. of policies formulated

    RE Agencies

    3 indicators

    10

  • Finance & Investment

    Fiscal incentives

    Customs duty

    Existing Incentives (Grants, subsidies,

    soft loans)

    Risk Mitigation

    RE fund

    sovereign guarantee

    Investment size

    future RE Investment announced

    4 indicators

    11

  • Technology Specific Indices

    Installed base

    Technology installed capacity

    National Target

    Technology yearly Target size

    Detailed action plan (planned projects)

    Resource potential

    Resource Quality assessment (map,

    Atlas)

    Resource potential in TWh

    4 indicators

    12

  • 6- Weights of Composite RE Index

    50%, General index (4/8)

    50% , 3 Technology-specific indices (4/8)

    General Index (50%) (4)

    Institutional Capacity

    (1)

    Market structure

    (1)

    Policy Frame work

    (1)

    Finance & Investment

    (1)

    Wind Index 23.8%(1.89)

    CSP Index 16.4% (1.31)

    PV Index 9.8%(0.78)

    Wind Market Size:

    47.6%

    CSP Market Size:

    32.8%

    PV Market Size:

    19.6% 13

  • Percentage of all RE share in MW scoring system:

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70 % of RE

    14

    7- Scoring Systems for some Indicators

  • Residential Price scoring system:

    Average Price for KWh in $ cents based on 482.5 KWh consumption

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

    Syria

    Bahrain

    Iraq

    Egypt

    Libya

    Yemen

    Lebanon

    Algeria

    Jordan

    Sudan

    Tunis

    Morocco

    Palestine

    Average

    Average Price ($cent/kWh)

    $ Cents/KWh

    15

  • • Ease of doing business scoring System:

    Missing countries (Palestine and Libya)

    • CPI scoring system:

    Missing countries (Palestine)

    • RE Agencies scoring system: (0.5 - 3)

    RE Agency +1

    Specific RE Agency +1

    Otherwise (Ministry) 0.5

    Regulatory Authority +1

    16

  • Future RE investment announced scoring system

    RE Investment announced for future RE Projects in Million Euro

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    Million Euro

    17

  • • Technology yearly Target size

    Expected annual technology target MW Capacity =

     

      

    Year InitialYearTarget

    Capacity InstalledCurrent Target Announced

    18

    • Resource potential Indicator in TWh/Year MED-CSP study which done by DLR at 2005

    missing countries (Palestine and Sudan)

  • Country Wind Resource

    potential

    CSP Resource

    potential PV Resource potential

    Algeria 35 168972 13.9

    Bahrain 0.1 33 0.3

    Egypt 90 (87) 73656 36

    Iraq 10 28647 6.8

    Jordan 2 6429 4.5

    Lebanon 0.2 14 1.5

    Libya 15 139477 3.9

    Morocco 25 20146 17

    Palestine 0.2 14 1.5

    Syria 12 10210 8.5

    Sudan 45 73656 36

    Tunisia 8 9244 5

    Yemen 3 5100 25.8

    • Resource Economic potential Indicator in TWh/Year

    19

  • 8- Mathematical Methodology

    • Treat potentially problematic indicators, those with

    (skewness >2 AND kurtosis > 3.5)

    • MVPstats, January2013, http://mvpprograms.com/help/mvpstats/distributions/SkewnessKurtosis

    •MICHAELA Saisana, A do-it-yourself guide in Excel for composite indicator development, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, Version: October 2012

    20

    http://mvpprograms.com/help/mvpstats/distributions/SkewnessKurtosis

  • Mathematical Methodology (cont.)

    • Normalizing all Indicators data to a common scale from (0 to 1)

    using Min-Max formula:

    • Normalized data are aggregated using arithmetic averaging using

    Excel Program Formula for unequal weights:

    score=sum product(weights*normalized values)

    21

     directiondirection  1*5.0* min-max

    min- valueold

  • 9- Results of the proposed Indices

    Scores out of

    1.893 Countries Ranks

    1.893 Egypt 1

    1.006 Morocco 2

    0.457 Jordan 3

    0.375 Tunisia 4

    0.320 Sudan 5

    0.311 Algeria 6

    0.222 Libya 7

    0.201 Syria 8

    0.083 Iraq 9

    0.074 Yemen 10

    0.062 Lebanon 11

    0.007 Palestine 12

    - Bahrain 13

    General Index Ranking Results Wind Index Ranking Results 22

    Scores out of 4 Countries Ranks

    3.162 Jordan 1

    2.804 Morocco 2

    2.734 Egypt 3

    2.502 Tunisia 4

    2.258 Algeria 5

    2.241 Palestine 6

    1.413 Syria 7

    1.357 Lebanon 8

    1.110 Sudan 9

    0.687 Bahrain 10

    0.584 Yemen 11

    0.531 Iraq 12

    0.450 Libya 13

  • Results of the proposed Indices (cont.)

    CSP Index Ranking Results PV Index Ranking Results

    Scores out of 1.3 Countries Ranks

    1.042 Algeria 1

    0.753 Morocco 2

    0.591 Egypt 3

    0.360 Tunisia 4

    0.288 Libya 5

    0.145 Sudan 6

    0.135 Jordan 7

    0.076 Iraq 8

    0.022 Syria 9

    0.016 Yemen 10

    0.004 Palestine 11

    0.001 Lebanon 12

    0.000 Bahrain 13

    Scores out of 0.78 Countries Ranks

    0.466 Algeria 1

    0.381 Egypt 2

    0.351 Yemen 3

    0.253 Morocco 4

    0.250 Jordan 5

    0.232 Sudan 6

    0.191 Tunisia 7

    0.171 Syria 8

    0.131 Iraq 9

    0.121 Libya 10

    0.023 Palestine 11

    0.011 Lebanon 12

    0.001 Bahrain 13

    23

  • Results of Composite RE Index (cont.)

    Composite Index Ranking Results Composite Index Ranking Scores 24

    Scores out of 8 Countries Ranks