Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly
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Transcript of Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly
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The Economic Outlook for
Building Materials:
New Opportunities and Risks in the
Evolving Business Cycle
Dr. Bill Conerly
for
Composite Panel Association
June 1, 2015
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0
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
perc
en
t ch
an
ge
U.S. Real GDP Growth
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0
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
perc
en
t c
han
ge
Canada Real GDP GrowthIMF Forecast
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0
1
2
3
4
5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
perc
en
t c
han
ge
Mexico Real GDP GrowthIMF Forecast
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340
360
380
400
420
440
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ b
illi
on
sRetail Salesexcluding gasoline
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6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ b
illi
on
sRetail Sales: Furniture Stores
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Singles
Multis
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mil
lio
ns
of
un
its
Housing Starts
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2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
perm
its, m
illi
on
sBuildFax Remodeling Index
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20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ b
illi
on
sCommercial Construction
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All Items
Ex Food & Energy
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% c
han
ge 1
2 m
on
ths
InflationConsumer Price Index
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0
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4-q
uart
er
% c
han
ge
Employment Cost Inflationincluding wages and benefits
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West Texas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ /
barr
el
Oil Prices
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3-monthT-bill
30-year mortgage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
perc
en
tInterest Rate Forecast
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90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ind
ex
Foreign Exchange Value of $trade-weighted index
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ t
rill
ion
sBank Reserves
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
perc
en
tRisk of Recession
Wall Street Journal survey
May: 12%
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Sources of Uncertainty
Economy
Technology
Social Attitudes
Government
Competition
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The Flexible Stance
Operating Plans
What would I do if the recession hits?
What would I do in a strong recovery?
Areas of Concern
Sales/marketing
Inventories
Capital spending
Staff
Working capital
Lines of business
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The Nutshell
Most likely
Better markets for composite panels
Stronger growth in rest of 2015 & 2016
Higher interest rates
Oil prices around $60 - $70
Downside Upside
Weak retail spend Consumer optimism
Recession Stronger building
Dollar rises Dollar falls
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Questions?
Bill @ ConerlyConsulting.com
one “n”