Complexity Across Boundaries: Coupled Human and Natural Systems in the Yellowstone Northern Elk Winter Range (NEWR)

(NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment (BE) – Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Award #0216588)

Cast of Characters

Dr. David McGinnis (ISU, PI) Dr. Jason Shogren (UW, Co-PI)Dr. Mark Lewis (UA) Dr. Jerry Johnson (MSU) Dr. Charles Peterson (ISU) Mr.. Wenwu Tang (UI) Mr.. Craig Anderson (UC-B)Dr. David Bennett (UI, Co-PI) Dr. William Travis (UC, Co-PI) Dr. Marc Armstrong (UI) Dr. Bruce Maxwell (MSU) Dr. Paul Robins (OSU) Ms. Lifang Huang (UI) Dr. Mark Lung (ISU)Dr. Duncan Patten (MSU, Co-PI) Dr. Bob Crabtree (YERC) Dr. Richard Horwitz (UI) Dr. Sheila McGinnis (ISU)Dr. Mark Williams (UC-B) Ms. Julia Haggerty (UC-B) Dr. Eric Noonberg (YERC)

Dec

isio

n Fr

amew

ork

Exogenous Shifts

Disease (CWD)

RegulationChange

Land Value

Population Events

Predator Tol.Scenarios

LivestockMortality

Perception of over-population

Ownership/Mgmt change

Fish & GameFormula

DiseasePerception

Env

iron

men

tal P

ract

ices

# of permits

Conversion of LC

Hunterbehavior

Regulationchange

Change in LU

# and locationlicenses

Hunter Demographics

Inst

itutio

nal C

ondi

tions

# and locationhunters

Elk

Wol

fV

eget

atio

nS

now

Bio

phys

ical

sys

tem

HUMAN SYSTEM MODEL

Policy affects land managers

Land managers affect policyPolicy makers

Land Managers

State changes within human sub-systems

Biological

Physical

State changes in biophyscial

systems a

a

a

a

Human subsystems affect the biophysical sub-systems

Biophysical subsystems affect the human sub-

systems

CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM

LANDSCAPELANDSCAPE

PHYSICAL SYSTEM MODEL

Willow

Wolf

Elk

Beaver

Prey

Predators

Grass/shrub

Climate

Not modeled

Groundwater

Amphibian

Snow

Temp.

Rainfall

Precip

Human System Changes:DevelopmentRanchingHunting regulationWildlife management strategies

Aspen

Soil Water

Stream

Northern Elk Winter Range (www.nps.gov/yell/nature/northern range/natreg/ map.html)

Specific objectives for this project:1.Assess the knowledge/belief systems of NEWR stakeholders with respect to environmental

change and ecosystem service and relate these systems to socio-economic characteristics and stakeholder identity.

2. Improve and expand the empirical record associated with land-use/cover change and use this record to model the impact of development and other human activities on the NEWR.

3. Improve and extend individual-based models that represent large-mammal behavior. 4.Develop plausible climate scenarios that illustrate how the NEWR may adapt to global

climate change/variability.5.Use knowledge gleaned from 1 through 4 to model decision-making using quantitative

(intelligent agents) and qualitative (scenario analyses) methods and to merge the biophysical and decision-making models into an ecosystem model that allows us to explore alternative future scenarios for the NEWR.

Rose Creek wolf pack near elk trail. (http://www.nps.gov/yell/press/images/wildlife/wolf pack.jpg)

Climate classification system using non-linear Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) on 700 hPa geopotential heights. Each day is classified into a single map node shown at right. Daily snowfall water equivalence can be modeled for each SOM node to provide input to a snow model (depth, density, and character) that will then be used as input to an elk energetics model (snow depth and characteristics are crucial for winter feeding habits, migration, and predator avoidance). The elk model will be incorporated into an agent-based, spatially explicit GIS model to demonstrate how changing conditions modify elk behavior and vice versa. The annual snow accumulation will also be used in the groundwater-riparian habitat modeling.

$

$$

$

$

$$

$

Agriculture

Grassland Riparian

Shrub land Forest

Disturbed

89%

79%

87%

82%

5%

11%

0.5%

1%13%

7%1%

1%

18%2%

1%

Land use transition diagram for generalized land use/cover types in the Upper Yellowstone Valley for the period between 1948 and 1998. Historical land use data provides a robust way to analyze environmental change. These changes will be related to demographic change and human decision-making systems and will be used to project future ecosystem change resulting from human activities.

Arial photos indicating 100 meter radius zones of influence around house site points (left) and 100 m radius house site zones of influence colored to show intersection with different land use/cover types. To assess how humans make decision regarding land use, qualitative interviews are being conducted. Results from these interviews will help explain why change happens and will provide input to the land-use change models.

Elk-Human interaction? (http://www.nps.gov/yell/safetyvideos.htm)

Wolf predation affects the spatial pattern of elk, concentrating them into areas of low predation pressure

Within these areas willow and aspen become over browsed which in turn has a negative impact on riparian habitat.

The wolf population responds to the new spatial pattern of elk (different packs prosper) and a new spatial pattern of predation evolves.

In response, elk adapt, reducing the pressure on plant resources in one area and increasing it in another.

Thus creating a shifting pattern of resource use that is sustainable at the landscape level.

Perhaps humans have modified this pattern.

By removing two key elements of the ecosystem, wolves and beaver, and by restricting elk movement to the upper part of their traditional migration range through development and hunting, humans may have artificially constrained this spatio-temporal cycle.

As a result, willow and aspen do not recover from elk browsing and, as a result, riparian habitats that support beaver and amphibian populations suffer. The system has, perhaps, entered into a new state with reduced stability.

Confounding factors include climate change, changes in predator-prey relationships, changes in economics and demographics, etc.

A Postulate: