1. Systems Engineering Complexity Types INCOSE WMA July 14, 2009

2. Agenda

SE has always been about complexity

Complexity has many spectra...which do you pick?

What are the types?

How do you measure it?

3. SE and complexity

in the 1960s... engineers, scientists, and managers... had found the systems approach effective in responding to physical and organizational complexity...

T. Hughes,Rescuing Prometheus(1998)

What has led to...systems engineering as a separate function in organized creative technology? ...increasing system complexity...

A. Hall,A Methodology for Systems Engineering(1962)

4. How SE has addressed complexity

Planning, and monitoring to ensure compliance

Hierarchy

Decomposition of systems

Order...avoiding chaotic regimes

Control (Marines vs. Kindergarteners)

Gaussian distributions

Trade Studies

Requirements

Architecture

Bottom line: Vanquish complexity

5. Complexity Complex systems Simple systems Systems using systems engineering 6. Spectra-1...Which systems? Less ComplexMore ComplexClosed systems Open systems Clockwork systems Swarm systems Organized Self-organizing Weakly integrated systems Highly integrated systems Central control Decentralized control Single agents to pairs of agents Infinities of agents 7. Spectra -2...Characteristics Less ComplexMore ComplexUnderstandable Difficult to understand Predictable Unpredictable Equilibrium Chaos Linear Nonlinear Loose coupling Tight coupling Control Adaptability Strict hierarchies Networks 8. Spectra -3...Consequences Less ComplexMore ComplexStrict hierarchies Networks Simple behavior Strategic behavior Simple behavior Emergent behavior Clear cause and effect Unclear cause/effect Economy of scale available Economy of scale-killers Single scale Multi-scale Reductionism works Holism required 9. Theoretical types of complexity have have createdvia Dynamic complexity Development processes Things (Systems, products, things being engineered) Environment supports contains subtypes subtypes have has From current doctoral research Conclusion: Be clear which one you are talking about. Structural complexity Dynamic complexity: long term 5 Structural complexity: Size 1 Socio-political complexity 6 Dynamic complexity: short term 4 2 Structural complexity: Connectivity 3 Structural complexity: Architecture 10. Existing Measure for Type 6 (SocioPolitical)

Traditional program domain

• Well-bounded problem

• Predictable behavior

• Stable environment

Transitional domain

• Systems engineering across boundaries

• Influence vs. authority

Messy frontier

• Political engineering (power, control)

• High risk, potentiallyhigh reward

• Foster cooperative behavior

Enterprise Systems Engineering Profiler TM of MITRE Source: Renee Stevens, Engineering Enterprise Systems: C hallenges and Prospects,Presentation to DAS XIII ,2006. 11. A process for getting to a Complexity measure

Suggest 3-point scale for each type of complexity: Is this traditional scale, transitional, or messy frontier?

For Sociopolitical, use MITRE ESE profiler (Convert to a number)

Ask programs to weight 6 types (normalized)

Then the program can watch changes

12. Use ESE Profiler, get a number What are you measuring the complexity of? x Weights Sum 3 2 2 2 1 3 5 30 20 25 5 15 15 60 40 50 5 45 215 Use Development processes Things (Systems, products, things being engineered) Environment 1 Traditional 2 Transitional 3Messy Frontier Estimate:Dynamic complexity: long term 5 Structural complexity: Size 1 Socio-political complexity 6 Dynamic complexity: short term 4 2 Structural complexity: Connectivity 3 Structural complexity: Architecture 13. Complexity in Program 3/31/09 14. Program Complexity Over Time 15. Caveats

I have no faith in this method at this point

Must find verifiably good measures

• Repeatable by same people

• Different people estimate same numbers

Must set applicability boundaries

• Ground rules for weighting

• Text for each type of complexity

Must examine and define usability (risk assessment? mitigation? comparison?...)

16. Conclusion

Ongoing research

Spectra of complexity are many

Types fairly constant across a wide number of references

Measurability is of issue at this point