Complex Systems, Dynamics & Design KEY NOTE Professor Jeffrey Johnson, Principal Investigator: ECiD2...

Complex Systems, Dynamics & Design

KEY NOTE

Professor Jeffrey Johnson, Principal Investigator: ECiD2 Research Cluster.

Complexity, Dynamics & Design

• designed systems can be complex



• design processes can be complex




• design environment can be complex

Complexity, Dynamics & Design• designed systems can be complex


• design environment can be complex

• design - a complex cognitive social process


Design involves assembles parts into wholes

predicting the behaviour of the whole


Design involves assembles parts into wholes

predicting the behaviour of the whole

dynamics

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience




Halley’s Comet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Tapestry_of_bayeux10.jpg




Halley’s Comet

Newton’s Laws – a triumph for science




Predictive science for engineering design




Some systems: point prediction impossible




How can the dynamics be designed & controlled?




Dynamics and prediction in design ?

Science versus pre-science: ‘just knowing’

How can the dynamics be designed & controlled?


Complex Systems & Prediction

Dynamics emerge from interactions ofmany heterogeneous parts at many levels

Trial and error not an option

Must understand transitions



t + tt + 2t

t + 3t

Now

time horizon

?



Now

t + tt + 2t

t + 3t

time horizon

?



Now

t + tt + 2t

t + 3t

time horizon

?

designing the future


Design as the Lab of Complex Systems

map out possible futures from data

make a change

create ‘artificial’ system

observe what happens

Experiments not replicable


Designing Complex Systems only politicians have the mandate & the money



Complex Systems Scientists need to work with policy makers




But they know nothing of design as process




CS Scientists need to know about design

…together we are designing the future

Complex Systems, Dynamics & Design KEY NOTE Professor Jeffrey Johnson, Principal Investigator: ECiD2...

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