Completion Report - Asian Development Bank...(i) The fiscal year (FY) of the government and its...

Completion Report Project Number: 37188 Loan Number: 2310-PAK(SF) March 2014

Pakistan: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project This document is being disclosed to the public in accordance with ADB’s Public Communications Policy 2011.

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit – Pakistan rupees (PRs)

At Appraisal At Project Completion 1 December 2006 30 June 2013

PRs1.00 = $0.0164 $ 0.0101 $1.00 = PRs60.82 PRs99.550

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB – Asian Development Bank CBO – community-based organization CPS – country strategy and program DPIU – district project implementation unit EIRR – economic internal rate of return EMP – environmental management plan GAD – gender and development GIS – geographic information systems IEE – initial environmental examination IUCN – International Union for the Conservation of Nature MSI – medium-scale infrastructure MTR – midterm review NCB – national competitive bidding NGO – nongovernmental organization NRSP – National Rural Support Programme O&M – operation and maintenance PMU – project management unit PSC – project steering committee SCDA – Sindh Coastal Development Authority SDR – special drawing rights (currency unit) SFD – Sindh Forest Department SLFD – Sindh Livestock and Fisheries Department SSI – small-scale infrastructure TA – technical assistance

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

ha – hectare km – kilometer MW – megawatt

NOTES

(i) The fiscal year (FY) of the government and its agencies ends on 30 June. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2012 ends on 30 June 2012.

(ii) In this report, “$” refers to US dollars.

Vice-President W. Zhang, Operations 1 Director General K. Gerhaeusser, Central and West Asia Department (CWRD) Director A. Siddiq, Environment, Natural Resources and Agriculture Division,

CWRD

Team leader I. Raza, Senior Project Officer, CWRD Team member M. Bukhari, Project Analyst, CWRD

In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

CONTENTS

Page

I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1

II. EVALUATION OF DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION 1 A. Relevance of Design and Formulation 1 B. Project Outputs 3 C. Project Costs 7 D. Disbursements 7 E. Project Schedule 8 F. Implementation Arrangements 8 G. Conditions and Covenants 8 H. Consultant Recruitment and Procurement 9 I. Performance of Consultants, Contractors, and Suppliers 9 J. Performance of the Borrower and the Executing Agency 9 K. Performance of the Asian Development Bank 10

III. EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE 10 A. Relevance 10 B. Effectiveness in Achieving Outcome 11 C. Efficiency in Achieving Outcome and Outputs 12 D. Preliminary Assessment of Sustainability 13 E. Impact 13

IV. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS 14 A. Overall Assessment 14 B. Lessons 15 C. Recommendations 15

APPENDIXES

1. Design and Monitoring Framework 16 2. Project Outcome and Outputs – Level 2 Indicators 23 3. Gender and Development Achievements 24 4. Project Cost at Completion 29 5. Annual Contract Awards and Disbursements 30 6. Implementation Schedule 31 7. Status of Compliance with Loan Covenants 35 8. Utilization of Consultant Inputs 44 9. Economic and Financial Analyses 46

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BASIC DATA A. Loan Identification 1. Country 2. Loan Number 3. Project Title 4. Borrower 5. Executing Agency 6. Amount of Loan 7. Project Completion Report Number

Pakistan 2310-PAK(SF) Sindh Coastal Community Development Project Islamic Republic of Pakistan Sindh Coastal Development Authority SDR24,230,000 ($36,000,000 equivalent) 1440

B. Loan Data 1. Appraisal – Date Started – Date Completed 2. Loan Negotiations – Date Started – Date Completed 3. Date of Board Approval 4. Date of Loan Agreement 5. Date of Loan Effectiveness – In Loan Agreement – Actual – Number of Extensions 6. Closing Date – In Loan Agreement – Actual – Number of Extensions 7. Terms of Loan – Interest Rate – Maturity (number of years) – Grace Period (number of years) 8. Terms of Relending (if any) – Interest Rate – Maturity (number of years) – Grace Period (number of years) – Second-Step Borrower

18 September 2006 2 October 2006 16 November 2006 17 November 2006 15 January 2007 7 December 2007 6 March 2008 27 February 2008 0 30 June 2013 30 January 2014 0 1% during the grace period and 1.5% thereafter 32 8 1% during the grace period and 1.5% thereafter 32 8 Government of Sindh

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9. Disbursements a. Dates Initial Disbursement

17 December 2008

Final Disbursement

12 November 2013

Time Interval

59 months

Effective Date

27 February 2008

Original Closing Date

30 January 2014

Time Interval

71 months

b. Amount (SDR) Category or Subloan

Original Allocation

Last Revised

Allocation Amount

Canceled

Net Amount

Available Amount

Disbursed

Undis-bursed

Balance Small-scale initiatives 6,076,000 4,112,701 1,963,299 4,112,701 3,813,311 299,390 Medium-scale initiatives 5,854,000 7,311,485 (1,457,485) 7,311,485 6,807,221 504,264 Minor civil works 141,000 521,628 (380,628) 521,628 481,376 40,252 Vehicles and motorcycles 522,000 380,000 142,000 380,000 337,731 42,269 Machinery and heavy equipment 23,000 150,000 (127,000) 150,000 94,227 55,773 Office equipment 448,000 324,084 123,916 324,084 296,696 27,388 Community organization 2,685,000 3,023,540 (338,540) 3,023,540 3,009,745 13,795 Mangroves, ponds, and others 945,000 1,929,263 (984,263) 1,929,263 2,006,144 (76,881) Consulting services 752,000 965,274 (213,274) 965,274 885,623 79,651 Project management 817,000 533,390 283,610 533,390 588,880 (55,490) Capacity development 1,379,000 292,073 1,086,927 292,073 63,648 228,425 Recurrent cost 1,163,000 737,535 425,465 737,535 757,541 (20,006) Interest charges 681,000 681,000 681,000 265,570 415,430 Unallocated 2,751,000 2,751,000 Total 24,237,000 20,961,973 3,275,027 20,961,973 19,407,712 1,554,261a $ Equivalent 36,000,000 32,210,627 4,884,965 32,210,627 29,833,819 2,393,468 ( ) = negative, SDR = special drawing rights. a Cancelled upon loan account closing— on 30 Jan 2014. Source: ADB Loan Financial Information System. 10. Local Costs (Financed) - Amount ($) - Percent of Local Costs - Percent of Total Cost

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C. Project Data

1. Project Cost ($ million)

Cost Appraisal Estimate Actual Foreign Exchange Cost Local Currency Cost Total 40.11 33.11 a a The loan made no distinction between local and foreign costs.

2. Financing Plan ($million)

Cost Appraisal Estimate Actual Implementation Costs Borrower Financed 3.36 2.65 ADB Financed 35.00 29.43 Beneficiaries 0.65 0.62

Total 39.11 32.70

IDC Costs Borrower Financed ADB Financed 1.00 0.41 Beneficiaries

Total 40.11 33.11

ADB = Asian Development Bank, IDC = interest during construction. 3. Cost Breakdown by Project Component ($million)

Component Appraisal Estimate

Actual

A. Base Cost

1. Institutional strengthening a. Capacity Building of Coastal Development Authority 1.7 0.6 b. Fisheries Fresh/Brackish Water and Water Quality Survey and

District Capacity Building 0.6 0.9

2. Community Development a. Community Organization and Income Enhancement 5.8 4.6 b. Small-scale Community Managed Initiatives 9.5 6.5 c. Medium-scale Local Government Managed Infrastructure 8.9 10.8 3. Improved Coastal Management a. Mangrove Planting 1.7 3.5 b. Prawn and Crab Pond and Bivalve or Seaweed Raft Development 0.7 0.2 c. Hatchery Rehabilitation 1.7 0.5 4. Project Management 3.2 5.1 Subtotal (A) 33.8 32.7

B. Contingencies

a. Physical Contingencies 0.4 b. Price Escalation 4.9 Subtotal (B) 5.3

C. Interest During Implementation 1.0 0.4 Total(A+B+C) 40.1 33.1 Sources: Report and Recommendation of the President for Sindh Coastal Community Development Project, Loan Financial Information System, Borrower’s Project Completion Report.

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4. Project Schedule

Item Appraisal Estimate

Actual

Date of Contract with Consultants Firms NRSP for community mobilization

10 April 2009

IUCN – environmental monitoring October 2007 10 April 2009 Management Development Consultants for baseline study October 2007 3 May 2011

Infofish for fisheries, water quality survey and district capacity building

October 2007 23 April 2012

Individual Consultants Financial Management Specialist October 2007 16 May 2011

GIS Specialist October 2007 3 January 2011Project Economist October 2007 23 May 2013 Rural Infrastructure Engineer October 2007 23 May 2013

Completion of Engineering Designs

Civil Works Contract Medium-scale infrastructure schemes Date of Award Various datesa Completion of Work Various datesb Small-scale infrastructure schemes Date of Award Various datesc Completion of Work Various datesd Hatchery rehabilitation and field ponds trials Date of Award Various datese Completion of Work Various datesf Equipment and Supplies Dates First Procurement January 2009 Last Procurement May 2013 Completion of Equipment Installation – GIS = geographic information system, IUCN = International Union for Conservation of Nature, NRSP = National Rural Support Programme. a From 2 February 2011 to 24 December 2012. b From 01 August 2011 to 30 June 2013. c From 28 August 2009 to 7 April 2013. d From 27 September 2009 to 20 June 2013 e From 21 April 2011 to 31 December 2012 f From 21 December 2011 to 30 Mar 2013. Sources: Loan Financial Information System, and EA’s Records. 5. Project Performance Report Ratings

Implementation Period

Ratings

Development Objectives Implementation Progress

28 Feb 2007 to 30 Sep 2007 Satisfactory Satisfactory 01 Oct 2007 to 31 Dec 2007 Satisfactory Unsatisfactory 01 Jan 2008 to 31 Mar 2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 01 May 2010 to 30 Sep 2010 Partly Satisfactory Satisfactory 01 Oct 2010 to 30 Dec 2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory

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Overall Project Rating

01 Jan 2011 to 31 Mar 2011a Potential Problem 01 Apr 2011 to 30 Jun 2012 On Track 01 Jul 2012 to 30 Sep 2012 Potential Problem 01 Oct 2012 to 30 Sep 2013 On Track a Effective 1 January 2011, the Lotus Notes-based Project Performance Reporting system was replaced with an Oracle-based eOperations Projects database. The new system does not rate development objectives and implementation progress separately, but provides overall project ratings such as “On Track”, “Potential Problem”, and “Actual Problem”. Source: Historical Project Performance Report Database in Lotus Notes, and Oracle-based eOperations database.

D. Data on Asian Development Bank Missions

Name of Mission

Date

No. of Persons

No. of Person-Days

Specialization of Members

Pre-Fact-finding 30 Mar–17 Apr 06 9 162 a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i Fact-finding 22–31 May 06 3 27 a,m,n Project-Specific Contact/Consultation

27 Jul–9 Aug 06

5

50

k,a,l,m,n

Appraisal 18 Sep–2 Oct 06 8 65 k,c,o,g,p,j,l,m Inception 7–12 Aug 08 2 10 p,l Review 1 12–18 Mar 09 3 18 r,l,l Special Project Administration 9–11 Sep 09 1 2 L Review 2 26 Jan–9 Feb 10 3 33 l,t,v Review 3 20–24 Dec 10 2 8 l, t Mid-term Review 1–15 Aug 11 4 56 s,u,w,x Follow-up Mid-term Review 17–25 Oct 11 1 8 s Review 4 19 Nov–3 Dec 12 4 34 s,u,w,x Review 5 8–15 Apr 13 2 14 s,u Project completion review 10–28 Jun 13 3 54 s,u,f

a = natural resources management specialist, b = poverty reduction specialist, c = young professional, d = NGO specialist, e = institutional specialist (consultant), f = economist (consultant), g = civil engineer (consultant), h = financial analyst (consultant), i = livestock specialist (consultant, m = project implementation specialist (consultant), j = financial analyst/economist (consultant), k = project specialist (rural development and finance), l = project implementation officer, m = poverty reduction specialist, n = natural resources biologist, o = counsel, p = coastal biology and environment specialist (consultant), q = head, project administration unit, r = senior rural development specialist, s = senior project officer, t = assistant project analyst, u = project analyst, v = principal natural resources management specialist, w = environment specialist (consultant), x = gender and development specialist (consultant) Source: Mission Back to Office Reports.

I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

1. Sindh has a coastline of approximately 350 kilometers (km), a major portion of which comprises the Indus River Delta. The center of this highly fragile and rapidly changing ecosystem is the coastal areas of Thatta and Badin districts, consisting of eight talukas (subdistricts) with a population of 1.2 million. Significantly reduced water flows in the lower Indus River resulting from longstanding upstream river water extraction have reduced the availability of water and increased saltwater intrusion in the river’s lower reaches. This has resulted in a high level of environmental degradation, significant loss of agricultural production, a decline in mangrove habitat, erosion along tidal creeks, and loss of inshore fish stocks.1 2. The economy and livelihoods of these rural communities are directly tied to their immediate environment, which consists of (i) mangrove swamps and creeks at the outer fringe of the Indus Delta, and the associated fisheries; and (ii) land above the high tide level, where subsistence agriculture, and village livestock and fish farming, are practiced. Most of the communities live in abject poverty. Secondary data generated by the project preparatory technical assistance (TA) showed that 54% of these communities are in the poorest category, with 79% characterized as poor.2 Almost 90% of the residents live in reed shacks in small, isolated, and scattered settlements having no amenities. This resource and service scarcity has the greatest effect on women and children. Average literacy rates at the time of appraisal were 47% for men and 14% for women. These areas have hierarchical and patriarchal social systems, in which women are essentially bound to perform domestic and reproductive work. 3. The intended project impact was a reduction in poverty for households in Sindh Province. The outcomes as designed included improved, ecologically sustainable income opportunities and access to services for poor residents in the eight coastal talukas of Thatta and Badin districts. The project had four components: (i) institutional capacity building, (ii) community development, (iii) improved coastal management, and (iv) project management. The Sindh Coastal Development Authority (SCDA) was the executing agency. Implementing agencies included: (i) the Sindh Forest Department (SFD), (ii) Sindh Livestock and Fisheries Department (SLFD), and (iii) district governments of Thatta and Badin. Implementing partner nongovernment organizations (NGOs) included the National Rural Support Programme (NRSP), and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

II. EVALUATION OF DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION

A. Relevance of Design and Formulation

4. At appraisal, the project’s outcomes (improved ecologically sustainable income opportunities and access to services for poor residents) and impact (reduction in poverty for targeted households) were consistent with Asian Development Bank (ADB) poverty reduction strategies and the focus of the 2002-2006 country strategy and program (CPS) was on rural development, infrastructure constraints, inclusive social development and sustainable environmental management.3 However, these themes are not the focus of the CPS (2009-2013). 4 The project was the last ADB-funded community development project in Pakistan.

1 ADB. 2006. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan to the Islamic

Republic of Pakistan for Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. Manila. 2 ADB. 2004. Technical Assistance to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for Preparing the Sindh Coastal and Inland

Community Development Project. Manila (PPTA 4525, approved on 23 December). 3 ADB. 2000. Country Strategy and Program: Pakistan, 2002-2006. Manila 4 ADB. 2009. Country Partnership Strategy: Pakistan, 2009-2013. Manila.

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The project outcomes were highly relevant to the government’s agenda of poverty reduction in coastal areas and its integrated coastal zone management strategy. The project brought coastal development into the mainstream of the Sindh development agenda. Based on the project’s success, the Government of Sindh approved (in 2012 and 2013) three new government-financed projects for Rs2.45 billion ($24.88 million equivalent).5 In addition, the government has also committed to financing the 5- and 20-year coastal development plans prepared through the project. In addition, other development partners provided $1.92 million through NRSP to community-based organizations (CBOs) established under the project. 5. The analysis in the project preparatory TA captured the multidimensional nature of the situation, involving the poverty–natural resources nexus in coastal areas, the capacity of line agencies, and local communities. The project preparatory TA proposed a host of interventions, implementation arrangements, and policy recommendations, not all of which were included in the design. Given the history of failure of investment projects in Pakistan that incorporate a policy reform component, the policy recommendation to improve the environment for private sector-led investment was not included in the design to avoid entangling the project with structural reforms. The proposal to establish livestock feedlots was not included because of the small size of cattle heads owned by average target households in the project areas. A community development fund to manage the community’s infrastructure needs was also not included in the design due to the inefficiency of the proposed implementation arrangements. Instead, an additional assessment of the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund and the NRSP was carried out, with the NRSP selected to implement community mobilization and community-managed small-scale infrastructure (SSI) schemes. 6. The design included lessons drawn from similar projects. These indicated that (i) a project needs to be simple to be effective, (ii) should use institutions with built-in capacity, (iii) adopt a demand-driven approach to community development, and (iv) balance civil works construction with effective social mobilization. These lessons were relevant to the design and helped ensure effective implementation. 7. Given the project’s multiple sector outputs, the choice of the SCDA as the executing agency was appropriate. It had the required mandate but lacked technical capacity, which was strengthened through the project by setting up a project management unit (PMU) and district project implementation units (DPIUs), a monitoring unit and a geographic information system (GIS) unit within SCDA. The project benefits, impacts, and risks as assessed at appraisal were relevant. The outputs, targets, stakeholder consultation and participation, and risks were also generally relevant as appraised. Project costs as appraised were generally accurate, except for minor overestimation of the unit cost for medium-scale infrastructure (MSI) schemes (further exacerbated by an exchange rate differential). The resultant cost savings were later used to fund additional community infrastructure needs. 8. The gender strategy provided in the design and gender action plan (GAP) developed during implementation worked as an effective tool to achieve gender and development (GAD) results. The gender issues were addressed through increased representation of women and targeted interventions such as the establishment of women’s CBOs, training, physical infrastructure schemes with primary GAD objectives, and access to microfinance and markets.

5 These included: (i) Improvement of Major Fishermen Settlements and Rehabilitation of Flood-Affected Areas of

Thatta and Badin for $7.95 million; (ii) Conservation, Development and Management of Indus Delta Mangroves to Check Sea Intrusion for $6.99 million; and (iii) Development of Coastal Areas of District Thatta for $9.94 million.

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9. The project duration and implementation schedule took into account the usual startup delays. The project was completed on schedule despite large floods in 2010 and flash floods in 2011, a cyclone in 2010 in the project area and the temporary freeze on funds for a subcomponent of MSI schemes due to changes in the local government system.6 Despite these difficult conditions, the project was completed on schedule, and in addition rehabilitated 158 schemes that were constructed under the project and damaged by the floods, including 43 MSI schemes and 115 SSI schemes. The overall strength of the design enabled the project to achieve 100%–300% of the appraisal targets for various activities. 10. The summary initial environmental examination (IEE) and proposed environmental assessment and review procedures as designed were relevant. The project was correctly rated as category B for the environment and was not anticipated to have resettlement and indigenous people’s impacts as defined by ADB. The IEE was conducted for all 178 MSI schemes, 30 crab and shrimp ponds, and the Badin hatchery, and an environmental management plan (EMP) was prepared for disposing of Badin hatchery silage. The IEEs, the EMP for the hatchery, and the mangrove monitoring reports were provided to ADB and made available on the project website. Mangrove monitoring reports were also made public though ADB’s website. The mangrove plantations had a positive impact on the coastal environment. B. Project Outputs

11. Both the outputs and components were highly relevant as designed. Some activities and outreach were expanded during implementation to address additional community needs. Most of the achievements surpassed the appraisal targets, including for mangroves plantation, MSI and SSI schemes, community mobilization and training, and establishment of a geographic information system (GIS). The GAD achievements were much greater than the targets. Key achievements against performance targets as presented in the report and recommendation of the president (footnote 1) and as revised are provided in the design monitoring framework (Appendix 1), level 2 indicators (Appendix 2) and GAD achievements (Appendix 3).

1. Institutional Strengthening

12. Sindh Coastal Development Authority capacity building. The SCDA had to develop a comprehensive coastal development plan that could effectively address environmental, social development, economic, and other concerns; and establish a GIS unit and train staff to improve SCDA’s management and technical capacity. These activities were highly relevant. 13. Coastal development plan. Two plans—a 5-year and a 20-year plan— were prepared and approved. The Government of Sindh allocated Rs990 million ($9.94 million equivalent) in its Annual Development Plan FY2013 for implementation of selective interventions in six coastal talukas of Thatta district, as proposed under the 5-year plan. 14. Geographic information system and staff training. The GIS and training of SCDA staff were both relevant and successfully completed. The scope of the GIS unit was increased to include a flood monitoring application. The GIS unit was fully functional and had the capacity

6 According to ADB estimates, the 2010 and 2011 floods caused $13.78 billion of damage in Pakistan; Sindh was the

most heavily affected province, with $4.38 billion in estimated damage. The floods affected over 40 million people, many of whom are still recovering; they suffer from extreme poverty, food insecurity and diseases. Entire villages were washed away, cities were flooded, homes were destroyed, and crops and agricultural land remained inundated for months.

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to provide data for all coastal sectors, to monitor project interventions, and provide services to other government agencies and NGOs. SCDA also maintained a web portal that provided geo-data and a flood monitoring system. Courses totaling 957 training-days and covering different technical and management skills were organized to upgrade the capacity of SCDA and its partner organizations. 15. Fisheries and water quality survey and district capacity building. The water quality surveys were rated by SLFD and SCDA as useful for fisheries sector planning. The consultants also completed a training needs assessment of the district fisheries staff, prepared a training plan and provided training to SLFD staff to upgrade their skills and improve the extension capacity of district offices. A total of 102 district fisheries staff members were trained in technical skills, with 50 master trainers. In addition, 8,943 CBO members (26% of whom were women) were trained in collective fisheries management and regulations.

2. Community Development

16. Community organization and income enhancement. All envisaged activities were relevant and successfully completed, including (i) participatory planning, (ii) training, (iii) income generation and leadership, and (iv) microsavings and links to microcredit and formation of CBO apex structures. A total of 1,587 CBOs were formed, covering 847 villages (exceeding the appraisal target of 1,388 CBOs in 700 villages). Village development plans for all 847 villages were developed and implemented. The membership of all CBOs totaled 31,018, with women accounting for 52%. A total of 1,122 CBOs were organized into apex structures for sustainability purposes, including 145 village organizations, 13 local support organizations, and 2 citizen community boards. Over and beyond the project scope, 11,824 CBO members (51% of whom were women) were assisted with registration of National Identity Cards, and 10,018 CBO members were assisted with voter registration, 51% of whom were women. 17. A total of 49,118 community members (half of whom were women) were trained in income generation, health care, environmental management skills, organizational management and leadership skills; this is almost double the appraisal target of 25,000. In addition, 1,451 microcredit loans worth Rs19.80 million ($0.21 million equivalent) were disbursed by NRSP to 1,129 community members; 69% ($0.15 million) comprised microcredit loans given to women. The CBOs in total saved PRs6.84 million ($0.74 million equivalent). The average monthly income of training and microfinance recipients increased by $20-$150. 18. Community-managed small-scale infrastructure schemes. The project anticipated 600 SSI schemes in 700 villages, while it completed 1,291 SSI schemes benefiting 45,385 households in 847 villages. Of the 1,291 completed schemes, 806 schemes (62%), involving Rs338.41 million ($3.671 million equivalent) or 57% of the total cost at completion, had GAD as a primary objective. The project also rehabilitated 115 flood-affected SSI schemes. In addition to project-financed schemes, CBOs completed 606 schemes worth $1.92 million with support from other funding sources. Appraisal targets were increased because of additional community needs and savings from the exchange rate differential. The schemes included school buildings, solar panels, roads, drinking water supplies, flood protection structures, water harvesting structures, and toilets. CBOs provided $0.62 million in cost sharing (9%), compared with 5% as estimated at appraisal. The project also trained at least one person per scheme in operation and maintenance (O&M) skills (for a total of 904 people, 20% of whom were women). In addition, 32 CBO members were trained in hand pump installation and repair, and were provided with tool kits.

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19. The civil works were highly satisfactory in terms of quality, operational status, and the benefits they provided. The external engineering audit of SSI schemes rated the overall quality of 90% of the schemes visited as highly satisfactory,7 with 10% rated satisfactory; none were rated unsatisfactory.8 Of the schemes that were visited by the audit team, 98% had all the components completed with respect to the approved proposals, while just 2% (a single scheme) had been completed while dropping a minor component that was not essential. Most schemes visited (84%) were rated highly satisfactory, with the remaining 16% rated satisfactory. All visited schemes were turned over to CBOs and were operational; the O&M of 76% of the schemes was rated highly satisfactory, with 24% found to be satisfactory. 20. Local government-managed medium-scale infrastructure schemes. At appraised, the project was to finance at least 91 MSI schemes at a cost of less than $100,000 per scheme. At completion, 168 schemes had been financed, benefitting a population of 161,513, at an average cost of $67,153.69 per scheme. Of the completed schemes, 31 MSI schemes (18%) had GAD as primary objective; their cost was PRs138.07 million ($1.49 million equivalent), or 13% of the total cost. In addition, 43 flood-affected MSI schemes were rehabilitated under the project. The MSI schemes included rural roads and bridges, flood protection bunds, cyclone-resistant school buildings, and drinking water supply schemes. The project increased the target to meet community needs and use cost savings resulting from lower-than-expected costs and exchange rate differentials. The communities’ cost share (2% of the scheme's cost in cash or in kind) was dropped because of the lack of technical and financial capacity on the part of the communities, and unviability of free labor, particularly after the massive flood devastation. 21. The external engineering audit rated the quality of civil works construction, operational status, and their benefits as satisfactory. Of 27 surveyed schemes, the overall performance of 59% schemes was rated as highly satisfactory, with the remaining 41% rated satisfactory; none were unsatisfactory. The quality of construction of 22% of surveyed schemes was rated as highly satisfactory, and the remaining 78% were satisfactory; 89% were functional and three schemes (for water supply) were completed but not yet functioning because electrification was pending. The corresponding implementing agencies were responsible for O&M; 85% of the schemes were rated highly satisfactory and 15% satisfactory with respect to O&M.

3. Improved Coastal Management

22. Mangrove planting. This subcomponent included: (i) planting of mangroves on 3,350 hectares (ha) of land on two sites in Thatta district (Keti Bunder and Shah Bunder) and one site in Badin (the northwest corner of the inland sea); (ii) construction of two forest base camps and two walkways; (iii) third-party monitoring and supervision of mangrove plantations; and (iv) an information and education campaign. This subcomponent was highly relevant to improving the natural resource base of the Indus Delta and the achievements surpassed appraisal targets. At project completion, 10,600 hectares of mangroves were planted, including 10,250 hectares by the SFD and 350 hectares by the IUCN on sites identified at appraisal. The project also set a Guinness World Record by planting 798,775 mangrove trees in a single day on 22 June 2013. The planting took place along the coast in the project districts. The project contributed 14% of the total area of mangrove planted since Pakistan was established in 1947 (77,550 ha have been planted, including 72,000 ha by SFD and 5,550 ha by IUCN). Based on the successful 7 Government of Sindh, Sindh Coastal Development Authority. June 2013, External Technical Audit of Civil Works

Carried Out under Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. Karachi. 8 The performance criteria included the appropriateness of the technical design, quality of construction and

implementation, O&M status, and whether the scheme met its objectives. The rating scale included (i) highly satisfactory (90%–100%), satisfactory (75%–90%), partly satisfactory (60%–75%) and unsatisfactory (0–60%).

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experience under the ADB loan, in FY2012 the government approved an additional mangrove planting project by SFD on 100,000 hectares, using the government’s own resources. 23. Third-party monitoring reports by IUCN found the survival rate at the Keti Bundar plantation for 2009–2012 was 76%, and 74% at Shah Bundar, which are both highly satisfactory. Survival rates for areas planted during 2013 were 96% at Shah Bundar and 100% at Keti Bandar, giving an overall success rate for 2013 of 98%, which is well above the global standard of 70%. The species composition included the genera Avicennia (49%), Rhizophora (46%), and Ceriops (5%). The planting was done in a linear-block fashion, with overall spacing of 3 meters between plants and rows. As envisaged, SFD arranged community policing to guard plantations. 24. The SFD also constructed two base camps and two walkways, and managed new nurseries that raised 2.937 million saplings. The IUCN completed an information and education campaign to educate policy planners, the media and the local communities about the ownership and sustainability of mangrove plantations. The campaign included 15 technical training events for CBOs; 7 environmental awareness events; 3 exposure visits for policy and project planners and media persons; 119 radio programs and 360 spot messages; distribution of promotional materials; and establishment of a web-link. The IUCN conducted 6 evaluation surveys and prepared 5 mangrove monitoring reports and a report on economic evaluation of mangroves. 25. Prawn and crab ponds and bivalve and seaweed raft cultivation. The appraisal targets included 100 extensive prawn and crab ponds, and 100 bivalve and seaweed cultivation rafts. The project completed a total of 30 ponds and 80 rafts. These activities suffered from startup delays due to their innovative nature and breeding-season limitations. Pond construction takes at least 6 months and crab and shrimp culture at least 4 months. Winter is the best season for crab culture, and summer the best for shrimp culture. This was the first experience the Fisheries Department had in establishing such ponds. The design included pilot ponds and rafts (20 each), followed by replication by communities. The activity was complicated because of the time required to establish pilot ponds and rafts and then replicate these; crab ponds required a long (1-year) gestation period and a large area of land (1 ha) for each scheme. The targets for ponds were therefore revised from 100 to 30, and the revised targets were achieved. The raft cultivation activity achieved its objective of innovation and demonstration, but the marketing of mussels and oysters remained a challenge because of a lack of local market demand; exports were costly because of the freight charges for the comparatively heavy mussels and oysters. 26. Hatchery rehabilitation. The design envisaged minor production capacity upgrades in Hawkes Bay Hatchery, Gharo Hatchery, and Badin Hatchery. The project upgraded Badin Hatchery, while the two other hatcheries were dropped from the project because they had already been upgraded using public resources. The project upgraded Badin Hatchery from fresh to brackish water, with a production capacity of 6.0 million brackish water hatchlings. The renovation work in the existing freshwater hatchery increased production from 1.0 million to 1.3 million hatchlings. As part of the capacity upgrade, the Badin Hatchery was provided with training facilities. A training hall was constructed to train 25 people in brackish and freshwater fish farming, thereby enabling the provision of training services to government staff and farmers. In addition, two laboratories were constructed and equipped at Badin Hatchery to test soil and water samples, and undertake nutritional testing of feed ingredients. The laboratory also produces live food to feed hatchlings and larvae produced at the Hatchery. Hatchery staff were trained in oyster and finfish breeding (9 staff members), water quality (2 staff members), and overseas fisheries (3 staff members). The consultants conducted breeding trials of sea bass brooders (six pieces) caught in the freshwater area of Badin district shifted to the Hawkes Bay hatchery. Oyster breeding trials included three batches of oyster brooders.

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4. Project Management

27. As designed at appraisal this component included the provision of the PMU, two DPIUs, vehicles, furnishings, equipment, and consultants. The PMU and both DPIUs were established. Recruitment of staff was delayed at startup as a result of political intervention, but once staff members were recruited, the offices generally remained fully staffed throughout the project period, and all the consultants were hired as planned. A baseline survey was carried out and monitoring systems were established. The overall design of this component matched the project requirements. C. Project Costs

28. The project cost at appraisal was estimated to be $40.1 million, including taxes and duties of $1.76 million. The project was financed through an ADB loan of SDR24,237,000 ($36.0 million equivalent) from the Asian Development Bank’s Special Fund (90%); the government’s contribution of $3.36 million equivalent (8.4%); and the beneficiaries’ contribution of $0.65 million equivalent (1.6%). The project was cost effective, because achievements exceeded targets within the given budget. At completion, the cost included ADB financing of $29.8 million (90.1% against the appraised estimate of 90%);9 the government share of $2.65 million (8.0% against 8.4% as originally appraised); and beneficiaries’ contribution of $0.62 million (1.9% compared to 1.6% estimated at appraisal).10 The project cost at completion—by financier and by component—is provided in Appendix 4. 29. There were no cost overruns. The inter-component change in allocations and spending was because the project scope was revised to utilize loan savings and meet additional community demands. Loan savings occurred as a result of the devaluation of the Pakistan rupee versus the dollar, and of the dollar against SDR.11 The overall project cost in dollars did not change and the additional cost (PRs77.0 million, or $0.8 million equivalent) was contributed by the government despite its fiscal deficit.12 A surplus of $4.8 million equivalent was cancelled by ADB on 28 May 2013 at the borrower’s request because of further devaluation. The counterpart funds were adequately and timely provided by the government and community. D. Disbursements

30. Disbursements were generally efficient and timely except for a temporary freeze on funds provided to district governments for MSI schemes because of administrative changes in Sindh Province. As designed, funds for MSI schemes were routed through a regular district government account (Account-IV). This arrangement suffered from minor problems, because Account-IV was temporarily abolished twice in the province for 2 months (11 July–8 August 2011, and 10 November–14 December 2011) and replaced with the provincial government’s Account-I. This change negatively affected the fund flow during these 2 months for a single project activity (the MSI schemes).To protect the project from these changes (which resulted from political conflict between coalition partners over a local government system), Account-IV was revised to enable payment from the main imprest account (effective January 2012), which

9 The increase in dollar terms resulted from devaluation of the dollar versus the SDR. 10 The beneficiaries’ total contribution includes PRs18.29 million ($0.20 million equivalent in cash) and unpaid labor

of PRs39.03 million ($0.42 million equivalent). 11 At appraisal, the exchange rate was $1 = PRs 60.82, while the last transaction took place with a rate of $1 =

PRs107.2. The average exchange rate across all project transaction in the Loan Financial Information System was $1 = PRs93.1.

12 However, the government share in dollar terms decreased because of change in the exchange rate.

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helped resolve the problem. The imprest accounts were well maintained. An imprest account and the statement-of-expenditure procedure were used for payments. All payments less than $50,000 were paid out of the imprest account, which ensured timely release of payments to contractors. Direct payments were made to consultants, NGOs, and vehicle suppliers. Counterpart part funds were provided on time. A year-by-year comparison of projected versus actual contract awards and disbursements during implementation is in Appendix 5. E. Project Schedule

31. The project duration and implementation schedule took into account the typical startup delays in Pakistan, including for establishment of project offices and recruitment of staff. The project was completed and closed on schedule (Appendix 6) despite two floods and a cyclone; the usual startup delays; and 11 months of delay in loan signing; and frequent changes of ADB staff due to restructuring in ADB. The loan was declared effective on 27 February 2008 (within the stipulated period of 90 days) and all activities were completed before loan closing. Advance contracting was approved and used to avoid delays in contracting the IUCN and NRSP. Recruitment of consulting firms was delayed mainly due to SCDA’s lack of understanding of ADB’s guidelines for recruitment of consultants and partly due to ADB’s delayed approval of EA’s submissions related to fisheries and water quality survey, and coastal development plan. F. Implementation Arrangements

32. The appraisal assessments of the capability of the executing and implementing agencies were generally accurate. The PMU and DPIUs responded well to the project’s intensive coordination requirements, and had adequate technical and management capacity to comply with government procedures. A lack of understanding on the part of the PMU that resulted in minor problems in complying with ADB procurement guidelines was resolved by ADB. Partner NGOs, including NRSP and the IUCN, had the required institutional mandates and technical capacity to deliver project outcomes and outputs. The third-party monitoring and supervision of the mangrove component and the preparation of IEEs and EMP for the fisheries component implemented by the IUCN were highly satisfactory. Pre-selection of these NGOs during appraisal facilitated effective startup of the project. All the committees identified in the report and recommendation of the president (footnote 1) were established and performed according to their envisaged mandates, and guided the project in planning, recruitment, and procurement. The project was implemented by public sector institutions, with limited, essential consultant input; this approach supported public sector ownership and effective project implementation. G. Conditions and Covenants

33. The loan covenants were relevant and helped ensure smooth project implementation. The loan effectiveness and disbursement conditions for the project were relevant and simple. The loan became effective 8 days prior to the deadline stipulated in the loan agreement. Overall compliance with loan covenants was satisfactory (Appendix 7). Out of a total of 55 covenants, 53 were complied with and two were not applicable. The covenant related to the insurance of imported goods (section 2.05 [b] of the Project Agreement) was not applicable because no goods were imported. The covenant related to consultation on amendments to the SCDA Act for ADB comments (section 2.14 of the Project Agreement) was not applicable because no amendments were proposed. Compliance with convents related to staffing were fully complied with, but generally delayed because of the startup delays, which resulted mainly from political interference in the staff recruitment process. Overall compliance with covenants related to the counterpart funds and audit reports was highly satisfactory. All five audit reports were submitted

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to ADB on time except for the first audit report that was delayed by 3 months. None of the audit reports had an adverse or qualified auditor’s opinion, and the anti-corruption policy was complied with. No loan covenant was modified, suspended or waived during project implementation. H. Consultant Recruitment and Procurement

34. Consultants were recruited and goods and works were generally procured according to the provisions of the loan agreement (Schedule IV and V), ADB’s Guidelines on the Use of Consultants (2010, as amended from time to time), and ADB’s Procurement Guidelines (2010, as amended from time to time). The procurement plan was generally followed except for a civil works contract for Badin hatchery and a small contract for procurement of GIS services. These contracts were in compliance with the Government of Sindh procurement rules but were not fully consistent with ADB guidelines. These contracts were reviewed by ADB and subsequently approved on post-review basis. As envisaged, SSI works were procured through community participation; MSI works were procured using the shopping procedure, because they were below $100,000 in value; and NGOs were contracted through single-source selection contracts. 35. The consulting packages were relevant as envisaged, and were mostly developed at appraisal; they totaled 3,297 person-months, including 250 person-months of national services, 23 person-months of international specialized services, and 3,024 person-months of community mobilization services. As anticipated, inputs and terms of reference for some contracts were developed during implementation, including those with the IUCN; for the baseline study and coastal development plan; and for the individual project completion evaluation consultant. As revised, consulting services contracts totaled 3,681.6 person-moths (40 of international and 185.6 of national specialized services, 2,982 person-moths of community mobilization services, and 474 person-months of surveyors and research assistance services). All contracts were successfully completed (Appendix 8). A total of 3,604.4 person-months (39.8 person-months of international and 3,564.6 person-months of national services) were used. I. Performance of Consultants, Contractors, and Suppliers

36. Performance of consultants, NGOs, contractors and suppliers was satisfactory. All deliverables were accomplished and the quality of goods, services and civil works was satisfactory. All SSI civil works contacts were procured through community participation, all contracts were completed and the overall quality was highly satisfactory. The MSI civil work contracts were awarded to small contractors using the shopping method as indicated in the loan agreement. All schemes were completed despite the startup delay and a delay of a few months affecting schemes in 2010 and 2011 as a result of floods and the temporary freezing of funds because of legal changes in local government systems. The quality of MSI works was satisfactory. The Badin hatchery contract was procured through non-competitive bidding and the quality of works was satisfactory. Boats, vehicles, equipment and furniture were supplied on time and their quality was as per specifications. J. Performance of the Borrower and the Executing Agency

37. Despite systemic problems involving political interference with project affairs and changes in the local government system as a result of political conflict between coalition partners, the overall performance of the borrower, executing agency (SCDA), implementing agencies (SFD, SLFD, and the district governments of Thatta and Badin) and partner NGOs (NRSP and IUCN) was highly satisfactory. Their achievements indicate they generally had

10

adequate capacity and the will to deliver on their activities and targets; they surpassed (and in some cases doubled) the appraisal targets. After an initial delay, SCDA successfully launched and supervised the project, and mobilized the implementing agencies to efficiently complete subprojects. The SCDA successfully completed the institutional strengthening component assigned to it. The Planning and Development Department (P&DD) supported the project, ensured additional financing of PRs77 million ($835,476 equivalent), and the timely transfer of counterpart funds. The project steering committee and other committees headed by the P&DD made decisions efficiently, conducted reviews, and approved changes in scope, the coastal development plan, the recruitment of staff and consultants, procurement of goods and civil works contracts. The SCDA and IUCN had qualified staff and technical capacity to conduct environmental assessments, monitoring, and prepare and implement the EMP. K. Performance of the Asian Development Bank

38. ADB’s overall performance was highly satisfactory. ADB expedited implementation of and ensured compliance with loan conditions and covenants, trained CDA and PMU staff in disbursement and procurement guidelines, and reviewed and processed approvals for proposed minor changes in project scope and implementation arrangements. ADB also worked with the government to resolve issues affecting the project including: staff recruitment, additional counterpart funds, and financing of PMU after loan closing to facilitate loan account closing. ADB ensured compliance with ADB guidelines through: (i) review and approval of standard bidding documents, bid evaluation reports, and draft contracts for each district; (ii) post-reviews of bidding procedures and civil works contracts during loan review missions; (iii) review and approval of shortlists and requests for proposals for all consultant contracts, technical evaluation reports, financial evaluation reports, final rankings, and draft negotiated contracts; and (iv) checking of quality and the use of goods and services during loan review missions. A total of 10 review missions were carried out, including one midterm review mission and a follow-up mission to assess flood damage and required support under the project in 2011, and the project completion review mission in June 2013. The project schemes were visited twice by ADB Board members; once by the country director of the Pakistan Resident Mission during the quarterly portfolio review mission; twice by the external relations officer for development effectiveness brief and media outreach; and once by the Independent Evaluation Department.

III. EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE A. Relevance

39. Overall, the project was relevant to ADB's objective of poverty reduction and the objectives of the 2002–2006 CPS (footnote 3). The project’s thematic objectives, outcomes and outputs, both as designed and achieved, were highly relevant to the Country Strategy and Program focus on rural development, infrastructure constraints, inclusive social development and sustainable environmental management. The project was responsive to the needs of the target group and was also consistent with government’s strategies for coastal areas development, and dealing with the poverty–natural resource nexus. 40. The project outcome and outputs were relevant to the problems faced by poor settlements that are largely dependent on mangrove aquaculture. All the appraised activities were relevant and improved marine culture, the environment, agriculture productivity, water use efficiency, access to services, and incomes. Achievements generally exceeded anticipated outputs except for two activities (crab ponds and bivalve and seaweed rafts). Key changes approved during project implementation included waiving the beneficiary funding requirement

11

for MSI schemes. Successful activities—including MSI schemes, SSI schemes and the extent of mangrove plantings—were expanded to respond to additional community and coastal area development needs, and make use of loan savings. B. Effectiveness in Achieving Outcome

41. The project was highly effective in achieving the outcomes and performance indicators set at appraisal, including: (i) increase in participant household incomes of 7% per year; (ii) increase of 40% in household access to drinking water, high platform for safety against floods, and roads; and (iii) implementation by CBOs of sustainable management plans for natural resource areas under their control. These outcomes were achieved and the project substantially exceeded expected benefits. A demand-driven approach was used in selecting the schemes and resulted in the selection of schools, sanitation, flood protection and irrigation structures, and solar light schemes. Almost all (95%) of the water supply schemes identified by CBOs were small-scale, community-managed schemes, but they fully met the community’s requirements. Moreover, the project also rehabilitated 158 schemes (43 MSI and 115 SSI schemes) that were constructed under the project but damaged by floods. 42. Household income. The yearly real income of participant households increased by 12.28% per year (PRs179,494 in 201213 as compared to PRs96,528 in 2006).14 These incomes are expected to further increase with improved services, reduced seawater intrusion, larger fish stocks as a result of mangrove expansion, improved mangrove forest products, and enterprises established through expanded microcredit and skill training. Yearly net household income for the lowest quintile in rural Sindh increased by 7.63.% per year, from PRs96,528 in 2006 to PRs148,106 in 2012;15 however, if adjusted for 12% inflation, it decreased by 4.37% per year, from PRs96,528 in 2006 to PRs66,996 in 2012. Given the fact that Thatta is the poorest district in Sindh, and both the project districts suffered from heavy floods, this income drop would have been worse without project. 43. Transport. The project improved access to services and markets through construction of 377 km of rural roads, and 86 culverts and bridges benefiting 29,903 households. The overall increase in rural roads in the project area is estimated at 820 km (40%), from 2,071 km in 2007 to 2,891 km in 2012.16 The project contributed 46% of this increase. The average daily vehicle-km for black-topped roads during the first year was 13,190 km. 44. Access to water and sanitation. The project provided water supply facilities that served 15,945 households (58% of the total households in 847 project villages) through installation of 510 km of water supply pipes, 1,715 hand pumps, and 195 water tanks. These facilities had the capacity of providing 13.9 million gallons of piped and un-piped water per day to an un-served population of 97,167. The communities that lacked prior access to water were previously either fetching water from canals away from the villages, or buying water at PRs2,000 per tanker. There was a 35% increase in household access to drinking water (from

13 International Union of Conservation of Nature. 2013. Valuation Study of Mangrove Plantation established under

Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. Karachi. 14 Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005-2006 and

2011-2012. Islamabad. 15 Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005-2006 and

2011-2012. Islamabad. 16 District Government of Thatta and Badin. Works & Service Department. 2007, and 2012. Road Statistics 2007 and

2012. Thatta and Badin.

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26% in 2005 in eight project talukas, according to World Bank estimates) to 40% in 2013 in the same talukas (based on SCDA’s estimate derived from the project’s 2011 baseline and the PPMS); this compares to a target of 40%. The project contributed 43% of this increase. The project constructed 4,318 toilets benefiting 14,515 un-served households. 45. Safety against floods. The project provided flood protection for 192,233 beneficiaries through construction of 377 km of high-platform roads, and 35 cyclone-resistant schools, hatchery and forestry buildings, which can be used during disasters. The target was fully achieved, with all planned roads and buildings constructed on higher ground to enhance the safety of communities during floods. 46. Land improvement. The project improved the productivity of 2,015 ha of agricultural fields through construction of 23 flood protection structures and four small irrigation schemes. 47. Access to education and electricity. A total of 30 schools with 53 classrooms were constructed benefiting 1,613 students, including 651 girls. The project provided 113 kilowatts of electricity through installation of 4,515 solar light panels, benefiting 7,275 households. Through these solar schemes, a single beneficiary household was able to save about PRs25 per day, which they formerly used to purchase kerosene. The households also saved the 20–30 minutes they previously spent in going to the nearest market to charge their cellular phones. Most of these households also reported a reduction in snake bites in the dark nights after getting light. 48. Environment rehabilitation. Mangrove planting helped improve the coastal environment, increase biodiversity and provide much needed new habitat for juvenile fish, thereby benefitting commercial fish stocks. Community members who work on the plantations have begun to benefit from improved wood and vegetation yields in these new sites and fish cultivation options in their mangrove areas. In the absence of these plantations, an additional 24,000 acres of cultivable land would have been lost to seawater intrusion over a 10-year period, resulting $52 million in losses. The mangrove evaluation study estimated yearly benefits of PRs3.27 billion ($32.7 million equivalent) from the mangrove planting under the project. 49. Government capacity building. The project helped build the planning and implementation capacity of the executing and line agencies that deal with coastal areas. These contributions included a baseline survey of coastal area and resources, preparation of a coastal development plan, fisheries and water quality surveys, staff training, establishment of a GIS laboratory, a flood monitoring system, a soil and water testing laboratory for fisheries development, hatchery upgrades, large-scale mangrove plantations, a fisheries training facility, project performance management system,, financial management information system, and vehicles and equipment. The government has used the plans, surveys, systems, laboratories, equipment, and trained staff and vehicles in implementing three new coastal development projects costing Rs2.45 billion ($24.88 million equivalent). C. Efficiency in Achieving Outcome and Outputs

50. The project was highly efficient. The project was completed on schedule, surpassed the appraisal targets for all key components, and was completed for 83% of the projected cost at appraisal. The subprojects were pro-poor. The overall project EIRR was 22.3%, compared to the appraisal estimate of 16% (Appendix 9). The higher rate of return was mainly due to the implementation cost being lower and the outputs higher than expected. The EIRR for mangrove planting and crab ponds was 27.28%, just below the appraisal estimate of 27.5%; the EIRR for the crab ponds was 7.47%, compared with the appraisal estimate of 28.3%. The crab pond

13

EIRR was less than anticipated due to overestimation at the time of appraisal. The EIRR was calculated for the microfinance component, but the cost and returns were not factored into the overall project returns because the funds were provided by NRSP from their own resources (the project created linkages only). The economic cost–benefit sensitivity analysis indicated the project would remain viable even with a simultaneous cost increase of 10% and a 10% decrease in benefits. A financial analysis was not undertaken at appraisal—the project is not a financial investment project, and most components have an economic benefit; therefore the financial internal rate of return for the project has not been calculated. 51. The EIRRs for the SSI schemes ranged from a low of 33.64% (for water supply) to a high of 237.15% (for flood protection bunds), with most clustering near 50%. The flood protection structures and water harvesting structures saved community lands and assets from inundation, and had a combined EIRR of 54.51%, with an average annual benefit per household of PRs13,000. The SSI schemes for water harvesting structures led to (i) an overall increase in cropped area; (ii) yield improvements; and (iii) increased cropping intensities. Their combined EIRR was 57.88%, with an average annual benefit per household of PRs24,243. The EIRRs for MSI schemes ranged from 12.99% (for roads and bridges) to 32.05% (for flood protection structures). The mangrove plantations provided annual benefits of PRs36,270 per household in the form of increased fish catches and mangrove forest products. Similarly, the benefits of crab and shrimp ponds were measured on the basis of increased fish sales; on average, one fish pond generated annual benefits of about PRs115,762. D. Preliminary Assessment of Sustainability

52. The project is rated most likely sustainable. All 1,291 small-scale schemes were executed and maintained by CBOs. All 168 MSI schemes were operated and maintained by the district governments and municipal administrations. A total of 904 community activists (20% of whom were women) were trained in the O&M of the SSI schemes. All the CBOs and apex structures established under the project qualify for assistance from NRSP, district governments, and other funding agencies. The O&M for mangrove plantations has been added to the recurrent budget of SFD, which will work with local communities. Badin hatchery and forest base camps were already included in government recurrent budget. E. Impact

53. The project’s overall impact is rated highly positive. The intended impact included a decrease in poverty in the project area from 79% to 49% by 2017, an increase in postnatal care for women from 16% to 40% by 2017, and provision of project benefits to 58,000 households. The impact to date has been greater than anticipated. Changes in the poverty level cannot be assessed using official statistics because the Government of Pakistan has not calculated poverty levels since 2006 for political reasons. However, informal SCDA estimates show a 22% decrease in poverty, from 79% in 2007 (project preparatory TA estimates) to 62% in 2012 (NRSP estimates of people living on less than $1 per day, on the basis of a survey of 86 project villages of varying sizes). The project directly benefited 100,710 households from vulnerable coastal communities, representing 42% of the 242,085 total households (estimated for 2013) in the eight talukas of the two project districts. Postnatal care for women increased from 16% in 2005 to 32% in 2012.17

17 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. 2013. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2012.

Islamabad.

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54. The mangroves provide both economic and ecological support for a population of 1.47 million people in eight talukas in the Indus Delta. The mangrove evaluation study shows that over 90% of the respondents reported visiting mangroves for forest items and fishing. The fish catch in the Indus delta is highly dependent on the mangrove ecosystem, and the planted mangrove forest is serving as a breeding ground for about 200 fish species. Almost 57% of households in these areas depend on fisheries for their livelihoods. Fishing was reported as a primary occupation by 75% of households in Ketibandar, 52.5% in Kharo Chan and 43.5% in Shah Bandar. On average, households were earning about Rs20,175 per month ($218 equivalent) from the increased fish catch in the mangrove plantations. The study estimated the direct use value of mangrove to be $8,956 per ha per year. These mangrove stands will also protect lands and settlements from intrusion by the sea. 55. The infrastructure schemes ensured increased access by communities to social and economic opportunities. The benefits of the drinking water supply schemes included increased availability of drinking water and time savings (30–60 minutes per household). Similarly, road schemes resulted in time savings of 20–75 minutes and reduced vehicle operation costs. The irrigation and flood protection schemes improved farming and helped protect assets from flood waters. The solar energy schemes provided light, saved the cost of kerosene fuel, and provided mobile phone charging facilities in villages that formerly lacked access to these. The roads and school schemes provided safety against floods and cyclones. The project had positive impacts on the workload of women through water supply schemes, roads, education, and solar energy schemes. Leadership development, CBOs, technical and income generation skills training, and micro-savings and microcredit programs had a positive impact on women’s incomes. 56. In addition to expected impact, the project created around 1.7 million labor-days of employment, worth PRs854 million ($9.26 million equivalent) through mangrove plantation and civil works contracts for MSI schemes, SSI schemes, fish ponds, Badin hatchery, and seaweed rafts (331,791 person-days were created for female laborers). In addition, the project created jobs through skill training and enterprise development through microfinance. The project also generated employment opportunities (8,610 person-months) in project offices, consulting firms, and NGOs; 10% of the person-months were contracted to women.

IV. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A. Overall Assessment

57. Overall, the project is rated highly successful, because the overall achievements substantially exceeded the expected results. The strength of the overall project design resulted in all components achieving their objectives, with achievements that surpassed the appraisal targets, despite widespread problems, including: (i) suspension of project activities because of floods in 2010 and 2011, and a cyclone in 2010 in the project area; (ii) the temporary suspension of district accounts for brief periods; and (iii) a delay in the recruitment of staff because of political interventions. The project closed as scheduled and was mostly implemented as designed at appraisal. The project also successfully rehabilitated 155 flood-affected project schemes. The achieved benefits and impact were generally greater than estimated at appraisal. The project’s outcome and impact were highly relevant to the 2002–2006 CSP and government agenda for coastal sector development. The project successfully generated further investment in coastal sector development, including $24.88 million by the government and $1.92 million by other donors provided to CBOs. The project set a world record by planting 798,775 mangrove trees in a single day on 22 June 2013. The project contributed to the capacity of executing authority to plan, implement, and monitor coastal development interventions. The project has

15

been instrumental in reaffirming the commitment of the provincial government to vulnerable communities of the coastal areas. B. Lessons

58. Key lessons from previous projects incorporated in and validated by this project included: (i) area-based multi-sector community development projects need to be simple to be effective; (ii) institutions with built-in capacity should be used; (iii) a flexible, demand-driven approach to community development should be followed; (iv) civil works and effective social mobilization should be balanced; and (v) the focus should be on service delivery, rather than on policy reforms involving structural changes that are beyond the scope of an area-based development project. The key lesson from this project is related to avoiding startup delays. The followings should be incorporated in similar future projects: (i) implementing NGOs should be pre-selected at appraisal; (ii) beneficiary contribution requirements should be waived, particularly for cash contributions; (iii) regular staff should be hired in favor of consultants, and (iv) project accounts and sub-accounts should be protected from administrative changes. Given the high unemployment rate in Pakistan (6.3% in 2013) and frequent bans on staff recruitment, political interference with recruitment is a systemic problem and it must be anticipated in all projects. C. Recommendations

59. Project related. The coastal development plan should be implemented and the results and recommendations of the fisheries and water quality survey conducted under the project should be factored into fisheries sector development planning. Appointment of a project director and establishment of a small PMU at the project preparatory TA stage through retroactive financing from loan resources can help avoid the usual startup delays. 60. Project performance evaluation report. The project will be ready for a performance evaluation in 2017. 61. General recommendation. Given the high level of poverty, harsh geographical conditions, and rapidly deteriorating climatic environment in the coastal area, all future projects in coastal areas of Sindh should include a community development component, improved natural resource management and improved environmental sustainability components for at least 20 years. However, this vision needs to be broadened, because community development projects are good at providing local level services, but lack the scope to bring transformational change to people’s lives. To structurally transform the coastal areas and eradicate poverty, and resolve environmental challenges, the area also needs investment in large projects, such as mini ports, fish harbors, connectivity with main roads and railway networks, and coastal infrastructure development to transform the area into an economic hub. 62. Given the importance of mangroves in the rehabilitation of the Indus Delta echo system, and its central value in supporting livelihoods, mapping of mangrove areas and preparation of a mangrove management plan, and large-scale investment in mangrove planting by the public sector is recommended. Preparation of a fisheries sector development plan, regular monitoring of fish catch and water quality surveys are also recommended to deal with overfishing, water pollution and negative impacts on fish species. 63. The project qualifies as a model community-inclusive water-based natural resources management project and can be replicated in Sindh and Balochistan provinces with minor adjustments in implementation arrangements, mainly disbursement arrangements.

16 Appendix 1

DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK

Design Summary

Performance Targets / Indicators Status at CompletionAt Appraisal As Revised

Impact: Reduction in poverty for households in Sindh Province

Decrease in project area poverty from 79% to 49% by 2017

No change.

Likely to be achieved. Change in poverty levels could not be assessed using official sources because the Government of Pakistan stopped calculating poverty in 2006 for political reasons. Since then, poverty estimates have not been provided by either the Planning Commission of Pakistan or the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Informal SCDA estimates show a 17% decrease in the poverty level, from 79% in 2007 (project preparatory TA estimates) to 62% in 2011 (NRSP estimates of 86 villages, on the basis of $1 per capita per day).a With accrued benefits of the project interventions, increased investment in the coastal area by the government and a decrease in rate of inflation, poverty is likely to decrease.

Increase in postnatal care for women, from 16% to 40% by 2017

No change. Likely to be achieved. Postnatal care for women increased from 16% in 2008 to 32% in 2012.b With the increased investment in mother and child healthcare by the government, 90 traditional birth attendants trained by the project, and 2,163 women trained by the project in mother and child healthcare, the increase in postnatal care for women is likely to be achieved.

Outcome Improved, ecologically sustainable income opportunities and access to services for poor residents in the eight coastal talukas (subdistricts) of Thatta and Badin districts

Participant households increasing incomes by 7% per year by early 2013

No change. Achieved (exceeded targets) Participant households’ yearly real income increased by 12.28% per year (PRs179,494 in 2012,c as compared to PRs96,528 in 2006).d

Appendix 1 17

Design Summary


Household access to safe drinking water, high ground for safety against floods, and roads increased by 40% by early 2013

No change.

Achieved (exceeded targets). 40% increase in roads, from 2,071 km in 2007 to 2,891 km in 2012. e The project contributed 46% of this increase. Average daily vehicle-km for black-topped roads in the first year was 13,190 km.

There was a 35% increase in household access to drinking water, from 26% in 2005 in eight project taluks (World Bank estimates) to 40% in 2013 in the same taluks (SCDA’s estimate based on project’s baseline in 2011 and PPMS). The project contributed 43% of this increase.

4,318 toilets were constructed for 14,515 un-served households.

192,233 people were provided with protection against floods through construction of 377 km of high-platform roads, 35 cyclone-resistant school buildings and a training hall at Badin Hatchery, which can be used for rescue and rehabilitation of flood-affected communities.

113 kW of electricity was provided through installation of 4,515 solar light panels benefiting 7,275 households.

30 schools with 53 classrooms were constructed, benefiting 1,613 students including 651 girls.

2,015 ha of land was improved through construction of 23 flood protection structures and 4 irrigation schemes.

24,000 acres of cultivable land will be saved from intrusion through mangrove planting, thereby avoiding $52 million in possible future damages over 10 years.

The mangrove evaluation study estimated total benefits of PRs3.27 billion ($32.7 million equivalent) per year from project mangrove plantations, starting in 2016.

18 Appendix 1

Design Summary


Community organizations implement sustainable management plans for natural resource areas under their control by early 2013

847 baseline surveys, village profiles and village development plans prepared and implemented by CBOs for improving natural resources and village infrastructure by the mid of 2013

Achieved (exceeded targets). 847 baseline surveys and village development plans were prepared and implemented.

Outputs: 1. Environmentally sound coastal zone medium-term development, management, and conservation plan by CDA

All major coastal plan components under way by the end of 2011

Coastal development plan prepared by the mid of 2013

Achieved. Consultants were recruited in April 2012, with 5-year and a 20-year coastal development plans approved in June 2013, and PRs 990.00 million ($9.94 million equivalent) allocated in 2013 for implementation of these plans.

Courses (957 training days) were organized for staff in different technical and management skills

A geographic information system, laboratory and a flood monitoring system were established to provide geo-data on coastal areas, resources and floods.

Brackish water and fresh water fisheries and water quality survey completed, and results promulgated by the end of 2010

Brackish water and fresh water fisheries and water quality survey completed, and results promulgated by the end of 2013

Achieved. Survey was undertaken and findings were approved by the Fisheries Department. A training manual and modules were prepared, and one upgrade training program conducted for 102 District Fisheries staff in technical skills with 50 master trainers.

8,943 CBO members trained in collective fisheries management and regulations; 2,363 (20%) were women.

2. Effective community-driven mechanisms for community planning and household income increases established

1,388 community groups formed to coordinate household-based economic activities by the end of 2012

1,521 community groups formed to coordinate household based economic activities by the end of 2012

Achieved (exceeded targets). 1,587 CBOs were formed representing 24,049 project area households covering 847 villages and 40 UCs.

25,000 beneficiaries trained in income-generation options and environmental management by the end of 2012

39,430 beneficiaries trained in income-generation options and environmental management by the end of 2013

Achieved (exceeded targets). 48,368 community members were trained in income generation, environmental management skills, organizational management and leadership skills; 51% were women.

Appendix 1 19

Design Summary


All community organizations have access to micro-savings and microcredit within 2 years of formation

1,388 COs have access to micro-savings and microcredit within 2 years of formation

Achieved (exceeded targets). 1,587 CBOs have micro-savings of Rs 6.846 million ($0.74 million equivalent). PRs19.80 million ($0.21 million equivalent) in microcredit was disbursed by NRSP through 1,451 loans to 1,129 CBO members. This includes Rs13.57 million ($0.150 million equivalent), disbursed to female beneficiaries (69% of total).

3. Transparent and accountable community-driven mechanisms for civil works and public services in place.

Demand-driven small-scale civil works and/or services initiatives provided to community organizations in 700 villages by mid-2012.

Small-scale civil works and/or services initiatives provided to community organizations in 847 villages by mid-2013.

Achieved (exceeded targets). 1,291 SSI schemes were completed, benefitting 45,385 households in 847 villages. 115 SSI schemes were rehabilitated that were damaged in the floods. In addition to project-financed schemes, CBOs completed 606 schemes worth Rs178 million ($1.92 million equivalent) using other funding and self help.

91 medium-scale civil works and/or services initiatives completed by districts by the end of 2012.

169 medium-scale civil works and/or services initiatives completed by districts by mid-2013.

Achieved (exceeded targets). 168 MSIs were completed, directly benefitting a population of 161,513. 43 MSI schemes that were constructed under the project and damaged in the floods were rehabilitated.

Quantity and quality of participation in village meetings and activities increased in 70% of participating villages

No change. Achieved (exceeded targets). Of 27,282 households in 847 participating villages, 24,048 (88%) participated in CBOs.

Project books system for civil works and public services in place by Q3 2007

Project books system for civil works and public services in place by Q2 2009

Achieved. Project book system for civil works under SSI schemes was maintained after launching of this subcomponent in 2009 .

4. Sustainable community-managed income-generating mangrove stands, ponds and/or raft fisheries, and shell fisheries established

3,000 ha of new mangrove forests and 350 ha of infill planted and grown by community organizations by the end of 2012

10,000 ha of new mangrove forests and 350 ha of infill planted and grown by community organizations by mid- 2013

Achieved (exceeded targets). 10,250 ha of new mangrove forests were planted by Forest Department and 350 ha of infill planted by CBOs through the IUCN. A new world record of maximum mangrove planting in a single day was set in June 2013.

20 Appendix 1

Design Summary


2.937 million saplings were raised for planting. Five independent monitoring and evaluation reports were prepared, reporting high levels of mangrove survival and success.

Two forest base camps and two walkways were constructed.

Information and education campaign included 15 technical training events for CBOs, 7 environmental awareness raising events, 3 exposure visits for policy and project planners and media persons; 119 radio programs and 360 spot messages; distribution of 11,376 fact sheets, stickers and other promotional materials; and establishment of a web-link.

100 pilot extensive prawn ponds, crab ponds, and 100 bivalve or seaweed rafts with adaptive replications established by the end of 2012

30 pilot extensive prawn ponds, crab ponds, and 100 bivalve or seaweed rafts with adaptive replications established by the mid of 2013

Partly achieved. 30 crab and prawn ponds were established, including 1 pilot and 2 replication ponds. 80 trial rafts were constructed including 20 pilot and 60 pilot and/or trial replications were completed.

Three upgraded hatchery sites with training facilities by the end of 2012

One upgraded hatchery site with training facilities by the end of 2012

Achieved. The project upgraded one hatchery. The two other hatcheries selected at appraisal were dropped during implementation as these were already upgraded using public resources. Badin hatchery was upgraded from fresh to brackish water with a facility capable of producing seed of brackish water species for 6.0 million hatchlings.

A training hall was constructed with capacity for 25 persons in brackish and freshwater fish farming serving government staff and farmers.

Two laboratories were constructed and equipped with a facility for water, soil and nutritional testing, serving farmers and government. The lab will also be used for production of live food for feeding the hatchlings.

Appendix 1 21

Design Summary


Breeding trials were conducted for 6 species of sea bass brooders, and 3 batches of oyster brooders

9 hatchery staff were trained in oyster and finfish breeding, 2 were trained in water quality analysis, and 7 staff were provided with overseas training in fisheries.

5. Project management system operational

PMU offices, work schedules, and reporting systems in place by Q3 2007

No change. Achieved. PMU and 2 DPIUs (one in Thatta and one in Badin) were established and systems were in place.

Committees were formed to manage procurement, consultant selection, and staff recruitment and these remained fully functional during the project period.

Integrity mechanisms in place for small and medium works by Q4 2007

No change. Achieved. A grievance review mechanism was in place. A total of 48 cases were registered by the communities, which were resolved. Of the total, 39 cases pertained to SSI schemes, 4 to MSI schemes, 1 to a CBO, and 4 were related to NRSP.

Project baseline with selective PPMS in place by Q4 2007

No change. Achieved. A project baseline study was carried out and performance monitoring systems were established and have been generally efficient.

All staff positions generally remained filled after recruitment of staff. Of the 5,408 revised person-months, 4,973 were used (89%). Women were provided with 240 person-months of employment (6% of the total).

Nine contracts were awarded (to 3 firms, 2 NGOs and 4 individual consultants) and successfully completed.

CBO = community-based organization, CDA = coastal development authority, DPIU = district project implementation unit, GAD = gender and development, GIS = geographic information system, ha = hectare, IUCN = International Union for Conservation of Nature, km = kilometer, kW=kilowatt, MSI = medium-scale infrastructure, NGO = nongovernment organization, NRSP = national rural support program, O&M = operation and maintenance, PMU = project management unit, PPMS = project performance management system, PSLM = Pakistan social and living standards measurement survey, Q = quarter, SCDA = Sindh Coastal Development Authority, SSI = small-scale infrastructure, TA = technical assistance, UC = union council.

a Government of Sindh, Sindh Coastal Development Authority. 2013. Project Completion Report, Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. Karachi.

22 Appendix 1

b Government of Pakistan, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. 2013. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2012. Islamabad. (http://www.pbs.gov.pk)

c International Union of Conservation of Nature. 2013. Valuation Study of Mangrove Plantation established under Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. Karachi

d Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. 2006 and 2012. Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005-2006 and 2011-2012.

e District Government Thatta and Badin. Work & Service Department. 2007 and 2012. Road Statistics 2007 and 2012. Sources: Project completion review mission estimates; Sindh Coastal Development Authority Project Completion Report (footnpote a); PSLM Survey 2012 (footnote b); project preparatory TA data for base year available on ADB record; IUCN. 2013. Final Monitoring Report on Mangrove Raised by Coastal Forest Division, Sindh Forest Department, Government of Sindh, at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar; IUCN mangrove plantation valuation study (footnote c); Sindh Coastal Development Authority. 2012. Baseline Survey of Coastal Areas of Badin and Thatta Districts. Karachi; and World Bank. 2005. Socio-economic Study and Proposal for Livelihood Improvements: Thatta and Badin Districts, Sindh Pakistan. Agriculture and Rural Development Sector Unit. South Asia Region. New Delhi. .

Appendix 2 23

PROJECT OUTCOME AND OUTPUTS – LEVEL 2 INDICATORS

Sector Indicator

ADB level 2 indicator(Yes/No) Unit Total

A. Water

Water supply pipes installed or upgraded Yes km 510

Households with new or improved water supply Yes hhs 15,945

Households with new or improved sanitation Yes hhs 14,548 Land improved through irrigation, drainage and/or flood

management Yes hectare 2,015

Households with reduced flood risk Yes hhs 2,457

Hand pumps installed No number 1,715

Water tanks provided No number 195

Adequacy of water supply (daily water produced) No gallons/day 13,960,069

Toilets constructed No number 4,318

B. Education

Students benefiting from new or improved educational facilities 1,613

a. Male Yes students 962

b. Female Yes students 651

Class rooms built or upgraded No number 53

C. Transport

Roads built or upgraded a Yes km 377

Use of roads (average daily vehicle-km in the first year of operation) Yes km 13,190

Beneficiaries of road schemes No hhs 29,903

Culverts and bridges No number 86

D. Energy

Electricity produced Yes MW 0.113

New households connected to electricity Yes hhs 7,275

3. Solar Panels installed No number 4,515

E. Finance

Microfinance loan accounts opened/end borrowers 1,451

a. Male Yes persons 346

b. Female Yes persons 1,105

Amount disbursed No $ million 0.200

F. Agriculture and Natural Resources

Mangroves Plantation

a. Area covered by mangroves plantation No ha 10,600

b. Households benefited No hhs 26,775

Oyster Rafts

a. Oyster produced in one crop No kilogram 8,000

Crab/Shrimp ponds and Hatchery

a. Beneficiaries of crab and shrimp ponds No hhs 121

b. Fish seed produced to private growers No brooders 3,000,000 ADB = Asian Development Bank, ha = hectare, hhs = households, km = kilometer, MSI = medium-scale intervention, MW = mega watts, NGO = non-government organization, SSI = small-sale interventions. a These roads include link roads, earthen roads, and brick pavements. Source: Data provided by Project Management Unit to Project Completion Review Mission.

24 Appendix 3

GENDER AND DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS

A. Introduction 1. This gender analysis examines the relevance of the gender strategy as prepared at appraisal, the gender action plan (GAP) as prepared during implementation, key achievements against commitments, and the overall gender impact of the project. B. Relevance

2. Given the inherent limitations of an area-based rural development project to change patriarchal structures, the gender strategy as provided in the project design was highly relevant. The analysis in the project design comprehended the multidimensional nature of gender inequality in poverty-stricken coastal areas of Sindh, including: (i) the strict gender division of labor and the burden of housework on women; (ii) restricted mobility and decision making for women; and (iii) limited access to paid work, and limited traditional earning opportunities, such as cattle and buffalo tending, dairy farming, and sewing and embroidery. The design also identified chronic ill health as a key issue faced by women. The gender strategy included the following guiding principles for promoting gender equality: (i) formation of women’s community-based organizations (CBOs)—to account for 50% of all CBOs—to enable improvement of service delivery from a women’s perspective, and (ii) building the capacity of government and partner nongovernment organizations (NGOs) to ensure service delivery to women. These guiding principles were translated during implementation into a well-defined GAP with a mix of qualitative and quantitative performance indicators. The GAP was quite helpful in tracking the results and was well integrated into monitoring systems. C. Key Achievements 3. Overall project achievements exceeded the GAP targets (Table A3.1). The key project achievement is the increased representation of women at the village level though CBOs and improved access to services. Women represented 52% of total CBO membership. The project established a total of 1,587 women CBOs (54% of total CBOs, which helped enhance women’s visibility in public life and their collective bargaining strength. Over half (62%) of completed SSI schemes had GAD as a primary objective, compared with the target of 33%; these schemes totaled Rs338.41 million ($3.671 million equivalent), which is 57% of the cost at completion. These schemes were also executed and managed by women’s CBOs. In addition, 31 MSI schemes (18% of the completed schemes) had GAD as a primary objective; they cost PRs 138.07 million ($1.49 million equivalent), or 13% of the total cost.

4. A total of 24,470 women (50% of total beneficiaries) were trained in various skills, including 12,376 in leadership and CBO management; 9,731 in technical skills including livestock extension, natural resource management, income generating vocational skills and mother and child health care; and 2,363 in collective fish management. These also included 90 women trained as traditional birth attendants, and 2,163 women trained in mother and child healthcare. 5. Women received 1,105 loans (76% of all loans) worth Rs13.57 million ($0.15 million equivalent), equal to 69% of the total of Rs19.80 million that was disbursed. The average monthly income of microfinance and technical training recipients increased by $20–$150.

Appendix 3 25

6. Over and above project scope, the project helped women with national identity card and voter registration, which is a basic requirement for improving women’s social and political representation. A total of 6,055 women (51% of the 11,824 beneficiaries) were registered as citizens. In addition, a total of 5,108 women were helped with voter registration representing 51% of the 10,018 beneficiaries. This helped to fulfill the basic eligibility requirement to access social safety net programs—such as the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), funded by ADB—and political processes, and assisted with financial inclusion and legal benefits. 7. The project helped build the government’s GAD capacity. A GAD specialist was hired at the project management unit who was responsible for GAP implementation and monitoring. A GAD specialist was also hired by NRSP to assist field teams in GAP monitoring and reporting. NRSP’s women staff accounted for 26% (752 person-months out of a total of 2,948 person-months) including the social organizers, a GAD specialist and a field engineer. Women accounted for 65% of all field-level social organizers. Of total project consulting services including NGOs, women utilized 23% person-months (833 person-months out of total 3,604). 8. The security crises in Karachi and the project districts related to increased balkanization by militant groups affected women’s employment because of security problems related to commuting in these circumstances, and therefore the original target of hiring women to fill at least 15% of incremental staff positions was reduced to 10% during the midterm review. At completion 11 incremental staff members were women (7.4% of the 147 staff members). A total of 832.8 person-months of consultant services were contracted to women (23% of the total of 3,604.4 person-months). Women staff and consultants were provided with special transport facilities to deal with commuting problems. Project reports, studies and data included a gender perspective. The project also trained 28 staff in gender mainstreaming and natural resource management.

9. The project placed gender agenda in the center of the government’s coastal development agenda. Gender inequality was highlighted as a core issue in the 20-year coastal development plan (CDP) 18 prepared by the Sindh Coastal Development Authority with project support. Based on the gender analysis and consultations with women’s CBOs, specific GAD provisions were included in the CDP to improve the status of women. The poverty reduction subprojects under the CDP included education and health for all; income generation through grants for livestock and dairy development; legal support to female victims of violence; schemes for clean drinking water, modern bus services, and community markets with display centers for the handicrafts produced by women; and health campaigns. In addition, the 11 sector plans and 49 projects under CDP also include GAD provisions.

D. Lessons 10. Women’s representation in CBOs and project management units, complemented by the placement of gender specialists, and the institution of gender monitoring systems, are key features that ensured the integration of the gender equality agenda into the project. Skill courses provided to women at nearby centers were relevant and not literacy-intensive, and were quite helpful in increasing women’s representation. Recruitment of female staff in the field helped win the trust and confidence of local communities. The promotion of women’s leadership through apex organizations at the Union Council was an effective strategy to advocate for increased resource allocation for women’s specific needs.

18 Government of Sindh, Sindh Coastal Development Authority. 2013. External Technical Audit of Civil Works Carried

Out under Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. Karachi.

26 Appendix 3

Table A3.1: Gender and Development Achievements

Project Component Activity Performance Indicator Status At Completion

1. Institutional Strengthening 1.1 CDA capacity building

Ensure that gender considerations are a central part of the CDP

Baseline survey team includes a gender and development specialist, and survey report includes data and analysis by gender.

A gender specialist was hired for 1 person-month and the surveys included gender-disaggregated data and analysis.

Gender specialist hired to assist in developing a gender-inclusive CDP with a gender analysis incorporated in the CDP

4 person-months were contract to female consultants including a gender specialist (8% of the total of 53 person months). The plan included a gender analysis.

CDP includes gender and development plan for women in coastal areas

Of 51 projects included in the plan, 2 had GAD as primary objectives (about 4%).

2. Community Development

2.1. Community organization and income enhancement

Ensure that gender perspectives and issues are central to all sub-project activities including community mobilization, subproject planning and design, monitoring and evaluation

55% of CBOs formed in the project talukas are women and mixed-gender CBOs. Create linkages between National Database and Registration Authority and CBOs to facilitate national identity cards and voter registration (at least 45% of the facilitated citizens are women).

54% of the total of 1,587CBOs were women’s and mixed-gender CBOs (women’s CBOs totaled 653, and mixed-gender CBOs 201). 52% of all CBO members were women. 6,055 women CBO members were facilitated with national identity card registration (51% of the 11,824 beneficiaries). 5,108 women were helped with voter registration (51% of 10,018 beneficiaries).

Of 1000 microloans to be provided by NRSP to project CBOs, at least 50% of loans are to women beneficiaries.

Rs13.57 million was disbursed to women (69% of the Rs19.80 million total that was disbursed). 1,105 loans were provided to women (76% of 1,451 loans).

Appendix 3 27


At least 50% of CBO members trained in technical skills are women.

9,731 women were trained (56% of 17,263 beneficiaries).

At least 50% of CBO members trained in leadership development are women.

12,376 women CBO members were trained (54% of 22,912 CBO members trained).

Regular gender reporting: (i) NRSP to provide monthly gender-disaggregated data; (ii) provide yearly annual gender analysis and impact assessment report, including case studies of best practices.

Successfully complied with. Monthly gender disaggregated data was provided by NRSP. Impact assessment reports, case studies of best practices were prepared.

2.2. Small-scale community-led and managed interventions

At least 33% of the completed schemes are implemented and managed by women’s CBOs.

802 schemes (62% of total completed schemes) were implemented and managed by women’s CBOs.

At least 33% of the completed schemes have primary gender and development objectives.

608 schemes had GAD as a primary objective (62% of 1,291 completed schemes), involving 57% of total investment.

NRSP to provide gender-disaggregated beneficiary data

Gender-disaggregated beneficiary data was provided by NRSP on regular basis.

2.3. Medium-scale community generated interventions

At least 25% of completed MSIs have a GAD objective (for example water supply and school buildings.)

31 schemes (18%) had GAD as a primary objective, including 19 water supply schemes, and 12 schools schemes. These involved 13% of total investment.

2 case studies/year of best practice are prepared by PMU gender specialist.

8 case studies were prepared.

3. Improved Coastal Development

1. Crab ponds, bivalve and seaweed cultivation

Ensure participation of women in community awareness and skill Programs

At least 10% of 300 CBOs to be trained in fisheries management are women CBOs.

2,363 women were trained (26% of total 8,943 beneficiaries).

4. Project Management

4.1. Staffing Gender-responsive project implementation arrangements, monitoring and evaluation system

Place qualified staff in PMU and DPIUs(i) gender and development specialist in PMU, (ii) sociologist or gender specialist as monitoring officer in SCDA, (iii) 2 safeguard specialists at DPIU to assist the PMU gender

All the concerned staff members were hired and worked till project closing.

28 Appendix 3


specialist in gender planning, monitoring and impact assessment.

At least 10% of incremental staff are women. Given the security crises in Karachi and project districts related to increased balkanization by militant groups and the decrease in women’s employment due to problems with commuting under these circumstances, the original target of a minimum of 15% female incremental staff was reduced to 10% during the MTR.

11 incremental staff members were women at completion (7.4% of the 147 staff members). 832.8 person-months were contracted to female consultants (23% of 3,604.4 person-months)

50 % of the social organizers at NRSP are women.

65% of social organizers were women. These social organizers including a gender specialist and a field engineer, who used 752 person-months (26% of total 2,948 person-months).

4.2. Facilities for women staff

A vehicle is provided to deputy director, gender and development.

Complied with.

Transportation allowance is provided to PMU and SCDA female staff

Complied with.

4.3. Staff training Training of PMU, DPIU, CDA, Fisheries Department and Forest Department in gender concepts, gender planning and monitoring methodologies

A 1-day training session on "Gender Mainstreaming in Development and Management of Natural Resources" was conducted and attended by all nominated staff from SCDA, PMU, DPIU, Fisheries Department, Forest Department and IUCN

4.4. Project monitoring and evaluation

PPMS provides gender-disaggregated data PPMS provided gender disaggregated data on project interventions and beneficiaries.

Monthly, quarterly and annual progress reports provide gender analysis

All reports included gender specific information.

CBO = community-based organization, CDA = Coastal Development Authority, CDP = Coastal Development Plan, DPIU = district project implementation unit, GAD = gender and development, IUCN = International Union for Conservation of Nature, MTR = midterm review, NRSP = National Rural Support Programme, PMU = project management unit, PPMS = project performance monitoring system, SCDA = Sindh Coastal Development Authority. Sources: Borrower’s Project Completion Report, project progress reports.

Appendix 4 29

PROJECT COST AT COMPLETION

Table A4.1: Financing Plan ($ million)

Source As appraised As completed Amount % Amount %

Asian Development Bank 36.00 90.0 29.84 90.1Government 3.36 8.4 2.65 8.0Beneficiaries 0.65 1.6 0.62 2.0 Total 40.11 100.0 33.11 100.0Sources: Cost Tables at Appraisal, Loan Financial Information System, and Project Management Unit’s records.

Table A4.2: Project Cost by Components ($ million)

Project Cost As Component Appraised Completed

A. Base Cost 1. Institutional strengthening

a. Capacity Building of the Coastal Development Authority 1.70 0.58 b. Fisheries and Water Quality Survey and District Capacity Building 0.60 0.86

2. Community Development a. Community Organization and Income Enhancement 5.80 4.60 b. Small-scale Community-Managed Initiatives 9.50 6.50 c. Medium-scale Local Government Managed Infrastructure 8.90 10.76

3. Improved Coastal Management a. Mangrove Planting 1.70 3.50 b. Prawn and Crab Pond and Bivalve or Seaweed Raft Development 0.70 0.18 c. Hatchery Rehabilitation 1.70 0.54

4. Project Management 3.20 5.18 Subtotal (A) 33.80 32.70

B. Contingencies

a. Physical Contingencies 0.40 b. Price Escalation 4.90

Subtotal (B) 5.30 C. Interest During Implementation 1.00 0.41

Total(A+B+C) 40.10 33.11 Sources: Cost Tables at Appraisal, Loan Financial Information System, and Project Management Unit’s records.

30 Appendix 5

ANNUAL CONTRACT AWARDS AND DISBURSEMEMNTS ($ million)

Contract Awards Disbursements

Calendar Year Projected Actual % Projected Actual %

2008 2.000 0.300 0.282 0.94 2009 8.000 11.546 1.44 1.000 2.054 2.05 2010 5.000 0.419 0.08 4.000 3.081 0.77 2011 8.500 8.759 1.03 5.000 6.367 1.27 2012 9.269 6.415 0.69 13.500 10.687 0.79 2013 7.000 3.180 0.45 13.367 7.629 0.55 2014 (0.265) Total 39.769 30.319 0.76 37.167 29.835 0.80

Notes: 1) The data on contract award and disbursement projections represent the original projections. 2) The negative disbursement in 2014 represents refund of the imprest advance received by ADB on 30 Jan 2014 Sources: Asian Development Bank Loan Financial Information System, and baseline projections in eOperations

Appendix 6 31

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Activity 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Output 1: Environmentally sound coastal zone medium-term development, management, and conservation plan implemented by CDA

1. CDA support

Establish framework for coastal zone development plan

Conduct supporting studies for plan, including environmental monitoring and mitigation

Develop comprehensive coastal development plan with monitoring system

Establish financing strategy for coastal development plan

Revise plan to incorporate findings of fisheries survey

Review performance and adjust plan

Conduct team building of expanded staff

Provide leadership training

Establish GIS

2. Brackish and freshwater fisheries and water quality survey

Establish NORAD, GoP, and Provincial/District liaison for both surveys to interact effectively

Arrange training needs assessment, plan for District Fisheries to use this survey to strengthen capacity

Identify key stakeholders and recruit survey consultants

Establish, design and test brackish/freshwater fisheries and water quality field survey program

Conduct survey

Statistically analyze survey Provide recommendations for off-take, rules changes, and District capacity building

32 Appendix 6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Activity 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Train communities in basics of fisheries regulation and management

Train District fisheries officers in brackish and marine fisheries and support devolution processes

Output 2: Effective community-driven mechanisms

NRSP develops area selection criteria, manuals and handbooks, rollout plan, and exit strategy concept

NRSP Operational Manual and Field Guide finalized, and reviewed annually

NRSP enters community areas, introduces project activities, completes wealth rankings, area profiles

Villagers complete poverty assessment, SWOT and resource availability assessment

Households form COs

COs establish micro-savings accounts and systems

NRSP undertakes leadership training with CO key leaders

COs establish training needs, undertake training to expand income generation options

NRSP establishes microcredit links

Facilitate connections with COs for: mangrove plantings

Facilitate connections with COs for: ponds and bivalve trials, training, fisheries and water quality survey

Facilitate connections with COs for: medium scale initiatives

Facilitate connections with COs for: coastal zone development plan creation

Establish nurseries

Implement planting, infill of existing low density areas, 350 ha

Implement planting, new areas, 3,000 haa@750 per year

. Tend/replacement planting of planted infill areas

Appendix 6 33

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Activity 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

i. Conduct information and education campaign on mangrove ecosystem management

Prawn and crab ponds and bivalve/seaweed raft development

Confirm sites for first round of 20 ponds and rafts, community interest, secure land

Identify technical support/hatcheries/ponds/rafts, pond construction contractors

Upgrade physical hatchery facilities to facilitate pond/raft trials and brackish pond/rafts fisheries

Establish training capacities for villagers in aquaculture with extension services

Establish ongoing environmental planning, monitoring, mitigation arrangements for any pond developments

Capacity building within chosen communities

Construct and equip 10 pilot ponds and 20 pilot rafts

Conduct pilot pond and raft trials

Evaluate trials of pilot ponds and rafts

Design and establish 20 pond and 60 raft replications in at least three additional sites

Midterm review of trials and provide plan for expansion inclusive of environmental planning and regulations

Promulgate information to villages/private sector for own replication

Provide information, education, communication on freshwater and brackish water pond options for villages based on fisheries and water quality survey results

Output 3: Project management system operational

Recruitment of Staff for PMU and District sub-offices

Recruitment of consultants and contracting for NGOs

Procurement of vehicles, equipment, furniture

Training arrangements, workshops, oversight

34 Appendix 6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Activity 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Project baseline, performance monitoring, evaluation

CDA = Coastal Development Authority, GIS = geographic information system, GoP = Government of Pakistan, GoS = Government of Sindh, NGO = nongovernment organization, PME = participatory monitoring and evaluation, PMU = project management unit, TNA = training needs assessment, a Target revised to from 3,000 ha to 10,000 ha during Project implementation. Source: Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimate. At Appraisal At Completion

Appendix 7 35

STATUS OF COMPLIANCE WITH LOAN COVENANTS

Covenant

Reference in Loan and Project

Agreement

Status of Compliance

Particular Covenants In carrying out of the Project and operation of the Project facilities, the Borrower shall perform, or cause to be performed, all obligations set forth in Schedule 5 to this Loan Agreement

Loan Agreement (LA), Article IV, Section

4.01

Complied with.

The Borrower shall take all action which shall be necessary on its part to enable Sindh and CDA to perform their obligations under the Project Agreement, and shall not take or permit any action which would interfere with the performance of such obligations.

LA, Article IV,

Section 4.02

Complied with.

Project Executing Agency The Coastal Development Authority shall be the Project Executing Agency and responsible for overall Project coordination and monitoring.

LA, Schedule 5, Para 1

Complied with.

Project Implementing Agencies The Livestock and Fisheries Department shall be responsible for the implementation of Components 1(b) and 3(b)(c), the district governments of Badin and Thatta shall be responsible for the implementation of Component 2(c) within their respective district area, the Forest and Wildlife Department shall be responsible for the implementation of Component 3(a), and Coastal Development Authority shall be responsible for the implementation of the other Components under the Project.


Complied with.

Project Management Unit The Borrower shall cause Sindh to establish a Project Management Unit within the CDA, to be responsible for (i) overall interagency and inter-district coordination and cross-learning for Project activities; (ii) recruiting consultants/NGOs and awarding procurement and consulting contracts (iii) consolidating reviewing, and submitting regular progress and Financial reports to the PSC and ADB; and (iv) monitoring and evaluating Project outputs and results. The PMU shall also serve as the secretariat of the other committees established under the Project.


Complied with.

The PMU shall be headed by a Project Director supported by appropriate technical and support staff, including a rural infrastructure engineer. All staff will be appointed by competitive processes acceptable to ADB. The Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that within six months of the Effective Date, the PMU shall have been fully staffed 'and remain fully staffed throughout the implementation of the Project. The Project Director shall report to the Director General, CDA.


Complied with.

Within six months of the Effective Date, the Livestock and Fisheries Department and the Forest and Wildlife Department shall each appoint an officer at BPS 19 to supervise the implementation of the Project activities under their responsibilities, these officers shall report to the Project Director.


Complied with.

36 Appendix 7

Covenant


Agreement


District Project Implementation Unit

Within six months of the Effective Date, the Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that a District. Project Implementation Unit (DPIU) shall have been established in each Project district. The DPIU shall be responsible for: (i) field-level coordination, facilitation, and monitoring of inputs; (ii) support to and training for district governments in planning, monitoring, and local NGO liaison; (iii) assurance that social safeguard conditions are adequately met; (iv) the monitor of gender and other social concerns; and (v) the provision of ongoing support to Project activities within the district.


Complied with.

Each DPIU shall be headed by a DPIU manager who shall report to the Project Director. The DPIU manager shall be supported by six professional staff and other support staff as required. All professional staff shall be appointed by competitive process acceptable to ADB. Within six months of the Effective Date, the Borrower shall cause Sindh to also ensure that each DPIU shall have been fully staffed and remain fully staffed throughout the implementation of the Project.


Complied with.

Project Steering Committee

The Project Steering Committee shall be established by Sindh. The PSC shall be chaired by the additional chief secretary, P&D Department, with the following members: (i) secretary, Finance Department; (ii) secretary, Local Government and Spatial Development Department; (iii) secretary, Livestock and Fisheries Department; (iv) secretary, Forest and Wildlife Department; (v) secretary, Environment and Alternative Energy Department; (vi) district coordination officer, Thatta district government; (vii) district coordination officer, Badin district government; (viii) representative from the Navy; (ix) senior official from Khushhali Bank; (x) Director General, CDA; (xi) chief executive officer, NRSP; (xii) senior representative from IUCN; (xiii) senior representative from WWF; (xiv) senior representative from Pakistan Fisher Folk Forum; and (xv) the Project Director, as the member secretary. The PSC may include additional members as required and agreed during its first meeting after Effective Date.


Complied with.

The functions of the PSC shall be to; (i) ensure high level inter-agency coordination and cooperation; (ii) provide policy guidance and reform support; and (iii) facilitate Project implementation. The PSC shall convene its meeting at least on semi-annual basis.


Complied with.

Small-Scale Interventions Within six months of the Effective Date, the Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that the Operation Manual and Field Guide required for the successful implementation of Components 2(a) and (b) shall have been completed to the satisfaction of ADB. The Operation Manual and the Field Guide shall be updated regularly on annual basis.


Complied with.

The eligibility criteria for the interventions to be financed under Component 2(b) are as follows:

(a) it must have the potential to accommodate practical and


Complied with.

Appendix 7 37

Covenant


Agreement


strategic gender needs of women and girls; (b) it must have the potential to benefit the poorer and

disadvantaged sections of the community; (c) it must be able to demonstrate sustainable medium and

longer-term impact on the reduction of existing poverty and social inequality;

(d) it must not have the potential of adverse environmental impact; and

(e) the community organization must be able and willing to provide the counterpart funds in the amount of minimum 5% (five percent) of the total scheme cost, of which three percent of the contribution must be in cash to be set aside for operations and maintenance cost.

Medium-Scale Interventions The eligibility criteria for the intervention to be financed under Component 2(c),are as follows: it must have the potential to benefit the poorer and disadvantaged sections of the community, in particular women; it must be able to create a sustainable medium and longer-term impact on the effort to reduce existing poverty and social inequality; its beneficiaries must be able to contribute 2% (two percent) of the counterpart funds, in form of cash or in-kind; and it must incorporate measures that promote transparency and accountability in the implementation of the interventions.


Complied with. Beneficiary contribution for medium-scale interventions was waived in the revised project design approved by ADB.

Within six months of the Effective Date, the Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that a selection committee shall have been established to (i) select all applications for medium scale interventions under Component 2(c) of the Project; and (ii) review the completion reports of each initiative. The selection committee shall be chaired by the Director General, CDA. The other members of the selection committee are (i) an additional secretary, at Works and Services Department, with relevant civil engineering experience; (ii) the district coordination officer of the relevant district government; (iii) a representative from one of the NGOs represented in the PSC; and (iv) a senior woman representative from a local NGO working in the Project area. The NGO representative in the selection committee shall be rotated among the NGOs represented in the PSC. In the event that a senior woman representative from a local NGO working in the Project Area cannot be identified, a representative from the district chapter of APWA may be appointed.


Complied with.

The Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that the tender documents related to the implementation of Component 2(c) shall be easily accessible to the concerned parties including through making these tender documents available in the DPIU.


Complied with.

The Borrower and Sindh shall both comply with ADB's Anticorruption Policy (1998, as amended to date). The Borrower and Sindh (i) acknowledge ADB's right to investigate, directly or through its agents, any alleged corrupt, fraudulent, collusive or coercive practices relating to the Project; and (ii) agree to cooperate fully with such investigation and to extend all necessary assistance, including providing access to all relevant


Complied with.

38 Appendix 7

Covenant


Agreement


books and records, as may be necessary for the satisfactory completion of any such investigation. The Borrower and Sindh shall ensure that all contracts financed by ADB in connection with the Project shall include provisions specifying the right of ADB to audit and examine the records. and accounts of the Executing Agency and the Implementing Agencies as well as all contractors, suppliers, consultants, and other service providers as they relate to the Project.

LA, Schedule 5, Para 16.

Complied with.

In order to enhance transparency and accountability in the implementation of the Project, within twelve months of the Effective Date, the Borrower shall cause Sindh to have established a Project website, which shall provide Project related information including, but not limited to, information on Components 2(b)(c).


Complied with.

Within twelve months of the Effective Date, the Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that a grievance review mechanism shall have been established, to the satisfaction of ADB, to allow the intended beneficiaries of the Project and the local stakeholders to file and tract complaints related to the implementation of the Project. The mechanism shall include the appointment of one of the PMU staff to act as the focal person in receiving and addressing the grievances.


Complied with.

The Borrower and Sindh shall ensure that all counterpart funds required for the Project, including the cost of land acquisition or lease, are allocated in its annual budget and that these funds are released in a timely manner. The Borrower and Sindh further agree that the counterpart funds not utilized by the end of each fiscal year shall be carried forward. In the event that it is not permissible to carry forward the unutilized counterpart funds, then the unutilized counterpart funds shall be reallocated for Project specific purposes in the following fiscal year. .


Complied with.

The Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure the establishment of a maintenance plan and appropriate O&M budget, including projected budget requirements, for all facilities and improvements to be provided, constructed, or rehabilitated under the Project, except for the small scale community-driven initiatives where communities will assume such responsibility.


Complied with. .

The Borrower shall ensure compliance with ADB's Environment Policy (2002), and shall cause Sindh to ensure that all mitigation and monitoring measures set out in the IEE and EARP are incorporated and implemented in the detailed planning and in all Project activities.


Complied with.

Sindh shall ensure that proper monitoring and enforcement of necessary environmental safeguard measures for pond cultivation shall be properly established in the CDA coastal zone management plan.


Complied with. IUCN prepared IEEs and EMP for construction of shrimp and crab ponds and also monitored implementation of the EMP.

Appendix 7 39

Covenant


Agreement


The Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that all groups carrying out physical improvements comply with all applicable labor laws, do not employ child labor for construction and maintenance activities, and provide appropriate facilities at the worksites.


Complied with.

The Borrower shall cause Sindh to employ in reasonable numbers the poor and vulnerable people within the Project Area for planting, construction and maintenance activities related to the Project, and ensure that the wages are not differentiated between men and women for work of equal value. Compliance shall be strictly monitored during Project implementation.


Complied with.

The Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure that all land to be utilized for the Project shall be government-owned land and not involve land acquisition or land conversion that might generate involuntary resettlement impacts, including loss of income, resources or assets for the non-titled as specified under ADB's Policy on Involuntary Resettlement (1995).


Complied with. The project had a safeguard specialist in each district management unit. All MSI schemes were screened by these specialists. The Badin hatchery civil works involved extension of the existing facilities. The SSI schemes were constructed by communities on their own land. Mangrove planting was carried out in protected forest areas. The ADB review missions regularly checked these schemes during field visits.

The Borrower shall cause Sindh to only allow the lease of its land to any entities for the construction of prawn or crab ponds within the Project Area upon the establishment of a specific environmental plan with mitigation and remedial measures, taking into account the cultivation methods and potential future problems of pollution.


Complied with.

The Borrower shall cause Sindh to ensure timely and effective implementation of the Gender Action Plan, whereby at least 33% of the Project beneficiaries shall be women, and the Borrower shall cause Sindh to take all necessary steps to recruit women professionals for PMU staff, DPIU staff and incremental CDA staff, with a target of 33% but in any event not lower than 15% of the staff.


Complied with.

Project Performance Management System Within twelve months of the Effective Date, the initial baseline surveys and established Project performance management system consistent with the Project framework shall have been completed. At the commencement, of Project activities, a matrix of sub-indicators shall be developed in a participatory manner to substantiate the agreed performance indicators. Baseline data shall be gathered for the development of the indicators, and shall be updated on a semi-annual basis. This data shall be published in the Project Website.


Complied with.

Project Review and Reporting Sindh, CDA and ADB shall undertake semi-annual review of the implementation of the Project, starting at the end of year one of Project implementation, using the information gathered from the


Complied with.

40 Appendix 7

Covenant


Agreement


Project performance management system and the progress reports on the Project activities. The semi-annual review shall consider (i) the achievement of the loan covenants; (ii) physical achievements against milestones along with any reasonable changes, and disbursement and financial progress; (iii) Project implementation issues requiring resolution or action; (iv) interagency operations and engagement; and (v) media and information flows to stakeholders and the public. Sindh, CDA and ADB shall jointly undertake a comprehensive midterm review at the first half of year four of Project implementation. The mid-term review shall evaluate:(i) Project scope, design, and implementation arrangements; (ii) progress against agreed indicators based on the Project framework; (iii) procurement performance; (iv) PMU and NGO effectiveness; (v) performance of the consultants; (vi) potential options to shift funds between small scale and medium scale initiatives; (vii) options for implementation of recommendations of the fisheries and water quality survey and the pilot pond and raft activities; and (viii) any other issue agreed upon by Sindh, CDA and ADB. One month prior to the mid-term review, the PMU shall submit a comprehensive analysis of each of the issues mentioned above as well as others which are appropriate. At the conclusion of mid-term review, ADB, Sindh and CDA shall agree on changes in both Project scope and implementation arrangements deemed necessary for the period following the review.


Complied with.

The PMU shall submit quarterly and annual reports to ADB. The reports shall indicate progress made, problems encountered, steps taken to remedy the problems, program of activities, and expected progress during the remaining implementation period, as well as Project performance data.


Complied with.

Project Agreement Sindh and CDA shall carry out the Project with due diligence and efficiency, and in conformity with sound administrative, financial, engineering, environmental, and community development practices.

Project Agreement

(PA), Section 2.01 (a)

Complied with.

In the carrying out of the Project and operation of the Project facilities, Sindh and CDA shall perform all obligations set forth in the Loan Agreement to the extent that they are applicable to Sindh and CDA.

PA, Section 2.01 (a) and

(b)

Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall make available, promptly as needed, the funds, facilities, services, equipment, land and other resources which are required, in addition to the proceeds of the Loan, for the carrying out of the Project:

PA, Section 2.02

Complied with. Overall performance has been highly satisfactory. The government provided additional counterpart funds of Rs77.00 million. However, the availability of funds to district governments for MSI was negatively affected for brief periods on two occasions as a result of a temporary freeze on Account-IV resulting from administrative changes in the local government system.

Appendix 7 41

Covenant


Agreement


In the carrying out of the Project, Sindh and CDA shall employ competent and qualified consultants and contractors, acceptable to ADB, to an extent and upon terms and conditions satisfactory to ADB.

PA, Section 2.03(a)

Complied with.

Except as ADB may otherwise agree, all Goods, Works and consulting services to be financed out of the proceeds of the Loan shall be procured accordance in with the provisions of Schedule 4 to the Loan Agreement. ADB may refuse to finance a contract where Goods, Works or consulting services have not been procured under procedures substantially in accordance with those agreed between the Borrower and ADB or where the terms and conditions of the contract are not satisfactory to ADB.

PA, Section 2.03 (b)

Complied with. However, there were two cases where the procurement plan and ADB guidelines were not fully followed: (i) a contract for civil works for Badin hatchery, and (ii) procurement of GIS software for SCDA. These cases were reviewed and approved by ADB on a post-facto basis.

Sindh and CDA shall carry out the Project in accordance with plans, design standards, specifications, work schedules and construction methods agreed with ADB. Sindh and CDA shall furnish, or cause to be furnished, to ADB, promptly after their preparation, such plans, design standards, specifications and work schedules, and any material modifications subsequently made therein, in such detail as ADB shall reasonably request.

PA, Section 2.04

Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall take out and maintain with responsible insurers, or make other arrangements satisfactory to ADB for insurance of Project facilities to such extent and against such risks and in such amounts as shall be consistent with sound practice.

PA Section 2.05 (a)

Complied with.

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, Sindh and CDA undertake to insure, or cause to be insured, the Goods to be imported for the Project and to be financed out of the proceeds of the Loan against hazards incident to the acquisition, transportation and delivery thereof to the place of use or installation, and for such insurance any indemnity shall be payable in a currency freely usable to replace or repair such Goods.


Not applicable. No goods were imported.

Sindh and CDA shall maintain, or cause to be maintained, records and accounts adequate to identify the Goods, Works and consulting services and other items of expenditure financed out of the proceeds of the Loan, to disclose the use thereof in the Project, to record the progress of the Project (including the cost thereof) and to reflect, in accordance with consistently maintained sound accounting principles, its operations and financial condition.

PA, Section 2.06

Complied with.

ADB, Sindh and CDA shall cooperate fully to ensure that 'the purposes of the Loan will be accomplished.

PA, Section 2.07 (a)

Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall promptly inform ADB of any condition which interferes with, or threatens to interfere with, the progress of the Project, the performance of its obligations under this


Complied with.

42 Appendix 7

Covenant


Agreement


Project Agreement, or the accomplishment of the purposes of the Loan. ADB, Sindh and CDA shall from time to time, at the request of either party, exchange views through their representatives with regard to any matters relating to the Project, Sindh, CDA and the Loan.

PA, Section 2.07 (c)

Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall furnish to ADB all such reports and information as ADB shall reasonably request concerning (i) the Loan and the expenditure of the proceeds thereof; (ii) the Goods, Works and consulting services and other items of expenditure financed out of such proceeds; (iii) the Project; (iv) the administration, operations and financial condition of Sindh and CDA; and (v) any other matters relating to the purposes of the Loan.


Complied with.

Promptly after physical completion of the Project, but in any event not later than three (3) months thereafter or such later date as ADB may agree for this purpose, Sindh and CDA shall prepare and furnish to ADB a report, in such form and in such detail as ADB shall reasonably request, on the execution and initial operation of the Project, including its cost, the performance by Sindh and CDA of their obligations under this Project Agreement and the accomplishment of the purposes of the Loan.


Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall (i) Maintain separate accounts for the Project; (ii) have such accounts and related financial statements (balance sheet, statement of income and expenses, and related statements) audited annually, in accordance with appropriate auditing standards consistently applied, by independent auditors whose qualifications, experience and terms of reference are acceptable to ADB; and (iii) furnish to ADB, promptly after their preparation but in any event not later than 6 months after the close of the fiscal year to which they relate, certified copies of such audited accounts and financial statements and the report of the auditors ,relating thereto (including the auditors' opinion on the use of the Loan proceeds and compliance with the financial covenants of the Loan Agreement as well as on the use of the procedures for imprest account/statement of expenditures), all in the English language. Sindh and CDA shall furnish to ADB such further information concerning such accounts and financial statements and the audit thereof as ADB shall from time to time reasonably request.


Complied with. The executing authority must submit the audit for FY2013 by 31 Dec 2013

Sindh and CDA shall enable ADB, upon ADB's request, to discuss Sindh's and CDA's financial statements and their financial affairs from time to time with the auditors, appointed by Sindh and CDA pursuant to Section 2.09(a) here above, and shall authorize and require any representative of such auditors to participate in any such discussions requested by ADB, provided that any such discussion shall be conducted only in the presence of an authorized officer of Sindh and CDA unless Sindh and CDA shall otherwise agree.


Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall enable ADB's representatives to inspect the Project, the Goods and Works financed out of the proceeds of the Loan and any relevant records and documents.

PA, Section 2.10

Complied with.

Appendix 7 43

Covenant


Agreement


Sindh and CDA shall, promptly as required, take all action within its powers to maintain its corporate existence, to carry on its operations, and to acquire, maintain and renew all rights, properties, powers, privileges and franchises which are necessary in the carrying out of the Project or in the conduct of its business.


Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall at all times conduct its business in accordance with sound administrative, financial, environmental, and community development practices, and under the supervision of competent and experienced management and personnel.


Complied with.

Sindh and CDA shall at all times operate and maintain its plants, equipment and other property, and from time to time, promptly as needed, make all necessary repairs and renewals thereof, all in accordance with sound administrative, financial, engineering, environmental, community development, and maintenance and operational practices.

PA, Section 2.11 (c)

Complied with.

Except as ADB may otherwise agree, Sindh and CDA shall not sell, lease or otherwise dispose of any of its assets which shall be required for the efficient carrying on of its operations or the disposal of which may prejudice its ability, to perform satisfactorily any of its obligations under this Project Agreement.

PA, Section 2.12

Complied with.

Except as ADB may otherwise agree, Sindh and CDA shall apply the proceeds of the Loan to the financing of expenditures on the Project in accordance with the provisions of the Loan Agreement and this Project Agreement, and shall ensure that all Goods, Works and consulting services financed out of such proceeds are used exclusively in the carrying out of the Project.

PA, Section 2.13

Complied with.

CDA shall promptly notify ADB of any proposal to amend, suspend or repeal any provision of the CDA Act and shall afford ADB an adequate opportunity to comment on such proposal prior to taking any action thereon.

PA, Section 2.14

Not applicable There was no corresponding proposal during the project period.

ADB = Asian Development Bank, BPS = basic pay scale, CDA = Coastal Development Authority, DPIU = district project implementation unit, EARP = environment assessment review procedure, IEE = initial environmental examination, IUCN = International Union for Conservation of Nature, NGO = non-government organization, NRSP = National Rural Support Programme, O&M = operational and maintenance, P&D = planning and development, PSC = project steering committee, WWF = Worldwide Fund for Nature.

44 Appendix 8

UTILIZATON OF CONSULTANT INPUTS (person-months)

As appraised As revised As competed

Expert Intl National Intl

National Intl National

A. Fisheries and Water Quality Survey (INFOFISH)

a. Fisheries Biologist and Resources Specialist 4.0 12.0 12.0

b. Water Quality Specialist 4.0 12.0 11.8

c. Fin Fish Breeding and Culture Specialist 4.0 8.0 8.0

d. Oyster Breeding and Culture Specialist 4.0 8.0 8.0

e. Pond and Raft Specialist 4.0

f. Crab and Prawn Ponds Specialist 20.0

g. Live food Specialist and Nutritionist 12.0

h. Hatchery Technicians 36.0 58.0 46.0

i. Fisheries Biologist and Resources Specialist 12.0

j. Water Quality Specialist 12.0

k. Fisheries Research Assistants 36.0 48.0 39.0

l. Water Quality Research Assistants 68.0 56.0 37.0

m. Mari-culture Extension Trainer 12.0 9.0

n. Fisheries Training Needs Analysis and Training 12.0

Total 20.0 208.0 40.0 174.0 39.8 131.0

B. Individual

a. GIS Specialist 6.0 6.0 6.0

b. Financial Management Specialist 3.0 3.0 3.0

c. External Auditor 12.0

d. Regional Pond Supervisor 24.0

e. Project Economist 1.3 1.3

f. Rural Infrastructure Engineer 1.3 1.3

Total 3.0 42.0 - 11.6 - 11.6

C. Baseline Survey (MDC) a

a. Team Leader 6.0 6.0

b. Livelihood Expert 3.0 3.0

c. Fisheries Expert 3.0 3.0

d. Rural Sociologist 3.0 3.0

e. Forestry Expert 3.0 3.0

f. Livestock Expert 1.0 1.0

g. Data Management Analyst 1.0 1.0

h. Gender and Development Specialist 1.0 1.0

i. GIS Expert 1.0 1.0

Total 22.0 22.0

D. Coastal Development Plan (Euroconsult Pakistan) a

a. Project Coordinator and Agriculture Specialist 3.0 3.0

b. Coastal Development Specialist 12.0 12.0

c. Oceanographer 6.0 6.0

d. Environmental and Marine Ecosystem Specialist 6.0 6.0

e. Development Economist 3.0 3.0

f. Physical Planning Specialist and Marine Engineer 6.0 6.0

Appendix 8 45

As appraised As revised As competed

Expert Intl National Intl

National Intl National g. NRM Specialist 6.0 6.0

h. Legal Expert 3.0 3.0

i. Sociologist 4.0 4.0

j. Gender and Development Specialist 4.0 4.0

Total 53.0 53.0

E. Environmental Monitoring - IUCN a

a. Programme Manager 46.0 51.0 51.0

b. Assistant Manager 51.0 41.0 41.0

c. Coordinator Ecologist 9.0 11.0 11.0

d. Coordinator Executing Authority 11.0 8.0 8.0

e. Aquaculture Scientist 32.0 30.0 30.0

f. Coordinator Communication 12.0 12.0 12.0

g. Communication Officer 14.0 15.0 15.0

h. Coordinator Environmental Economics 8.0 4.0 4.0

i. Coordinator Social Work 10.0 9.0 9.0

j. Plantation Officer 39.0 39.0

k. Field Supervisors 98.0 98.0

l. Field Assistants 31.0 31.0

m. Project Assistant 50.0 50.0

Total 399.0 399.0

F. Community Mobilization and SSIs (NRSP) 3,024.0 2,982.0 2,948.0

Grand Total 23.0 3,274.0 40.0 3,641.6 39.8 3,564.6

Summary of Consulting Services Input Utilization

Specialized Services 23.0 250.0 40.0 185.6 39.8 142.6

Field staff - community mobilization 3,024.0 2,982.0 2,948.0

Other Consulting services 474.0 474.0

Total

23.0 3,274.0

40.0 3,641.6 39.8 3,564.6

GIS = geographic information system, Intl = international, IUCN = International Union for Conservation of Nature, MDC = management development consultant, NRM = natural resource management, NRSP = National Rural Support Programme, RRP = report and recommendations of the president, SSI =small-scale infrastructure. a The project design did not estimate person-months for these packages. Only lump sum amounts were allocated in

cost tables. Sources: Report and Recommendations of the President for Sindh Coastal Community Development Project, revised project cost tables at midterm review, and Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimates.

46 Appendix 9

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSES A. Introduction

1. The following analysis is a post-completion economic reevaluation at the close of the project to estimate the anticipated economic returns based on actual costs and anticipated and visible benefits, and compare those with the returns estimated at appraisal. The reevaluation generally follows the methodology adopted at appraisal. The present analysis relies on data provided by the Government of Sindh, presented in the project performance monitoring system (PPMS), and data collected during visits to 74 sample subprojects by the project completion review mission. B. Methodology and Approach

2. The project consists of 168 medium-scale infrastructure (MSI) schemes consisting of rural roads and bridges, flood protection bunds, school buildings, and water supply systems, and 1,291 small scale infrastructure (SSI) schemes consisting of school buildings, solar panels, roads, water supply systems, flood protection bunds, water harvesting structures, and toilets. In addition, the project worked on mangrove plantations, improved a hatchery in Badin, established fish ponds and seaweed rafts (for oysters and mussels), and provided microfinance and community training. Although an economic analysis of the microfinance provision was calculated, it was not included in estimating the overall project economic internal rate of return (EIRR) because this component was funded through a partnership with the National Rural Support Programme (NRSP), which financed the microfinance. Half of the talukas (sub-districts) were randomly selected for sampling—three talukas in Thatta and one taluka in Badin—with a sample group of 74 subprojects selected using stratified random sampling to carry out the economic analysis. The EIRRs were estimated for 16 MSI and 39 SSI schemes, the Badin hatchery, mangrove planting, one crab pond, one raft, 10 loans and 5 technical training events. The EIRR was calculated on the basis of the capital cost incurred, the actual and estimated operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, and estimated and achieved benefits. 3. Benefits related to health and hygiene from projects such as toilets cannot be quantified and the benefits of constructing primary school rooms in rural areas are also difficult to quantify; these have therefore been excluded from the EIRR analysis. Similarly, health benefits have not been included as these are regarded as long-term benefits, and their true impact on the beneficiaries can only be measured at least 4–5 years after completion of a given facility. The data on the benefits of seaweed rafts was also not available, because the project has been unable to identify a local potential market for the mussels and oysters, and has also been unable to export these; consequently, the EIRR for the seaweed rafts was not calculated. C. Assumptions

4. The following main assumptions were adopted in undertaking the analysis.

(i) The year in which a subproject is completed is taken as its base year. (ii) Each subproject is assumed to have a useful economic life of 20 years after

construction based on its design, with no residual value in year 20. An allowance in year 10 has been made for the replacement cost as 10% of the total capital cost.

Appendix 9 47

(iii) Revenue and costs, including capital and O&M costs, are expressed at their economic prices by applying conversion factors, and are taken in the local currency (i.e., Pakistan rupees).

(iv) The opportunity cost of water is assumed to be zero as the water supply schemes will cater to geographically dispersed communities and will not significantly reduce the volume of water available for the irrigation of crops.

(v) The real opportunity cost of capital is 12% per annum. (vi) The following conversion factors and assumptions are used:

(a) Price basis for economic analysis: 2013 constant terms. (b) Project life and period of operation: 20 years (2013–2033). (c) Price level basis for economic valuation: domestic prices. (d) Standard conversion factor (SCF): 0.75. (e) rural wage rate (per hour): 37.50 (f) Increase in wage rate (% per year): 5%. (g) Percentage of time savings for roads: 50%. (h) Replacement cost (every 10th year): 10%. (i) Increase in the number of drinking water supply beneficiaries per year:

2.5%. D. Estimation of the Economic Internal Rate of Return

5. The average EIRR for the 74 schemes was 22.14%, compared with 16.00% estimated at appraisal. For individual schemes, the EIRR ranged from 2.44% to 57.88%. The EIRR estimates vary as a function of scheme size, distance of source from the settlement, population, and household size. The EIRR varies in tandem with the estimates for similar schemes done at appraisal. Calculations of the EIRRs for MSI schemes, SSI schemes, other interventions (e.g., hatchery improvements, mangrove developments, microfinance, and training) and the overall project estimate are in Tables 1–4. 6. Water supply. A total of 376 SSI and 19 MSI schemes were completed under the project. At the time of appraisal, the economic evaluation for water supply projects was undertaken but a quantitative figure for EIRR is not available. The purpose of these subprojects, as envisaged at the time of appraisal was to reduce the time involved in fetching water, and to improve health. For this analysis, the economic value of the time saved by women and diverted to activities that enhance household income was considered. The resultant time saving significantly reduced the stress on women and girls. With water supply on the doorstep, the contribution of women to farm-related activities, tending livestock, and other off-farm income generating activities has increased considerably. Moreover, women have more time for themselves and family care. In addition, there are other significant non-quantifiable benefits, especially improvements to health. Access to clean water has significantly reduced the incidence of waterborne diseases and other illnesses, and the productivity lost resulting from absenteeism from work. These benefits are difficult to quantify and have been excluded in estimating the EIRR. Based on the benefits of time savings, the EIRR is calculated to be 19.9%. 7. Rural roads and bridges. A total of 263 SSI and 132 MSI road and bridge schemes were completed under the project. The goal was to improve the movement of people as well as agricultural inputs and outputs, and to enhance access to social services such as health care and education facilities. The same benefits that were included in the economic analysis of the road subprojects at the time of appraisal are included in this analysis. These include savings in vehicle operating costs (VOCs) and personal travel time (for business purposes). Another benefit is the increase in land values, but this is excluded because of the difficulty of accurately

48 Appendix 9

ascribing increases in land value to the subprojects. Savings in VOCs resulting from road improvements take into account the effect of higher travel speeds and reduced road roughness on VOCs as derived by the Ministry of Communications. Savings in personal travel time are based on trips for work purposes only, and 50% of the time is taken as productive time. Incremental O&M costs are estimated at 0.5% of the capital cost of subprojects, plus an allowance of 20% of the capital cost every 7 years for resurfacing. The combined economic evaluation prepared for the road subprojects at appraisal resulted in an EIRR of 15.38%. The current economic evaluation prepared for the sample projects has resulted in an EIRR of 16.07%. 8. Solar energy schemes. A total of 190 solar energy SSI schemes were completed under the project. There were many potential benefits of community solar projects but savings in alternate fuel costs have been taken as a major benefit for the EIRR. The current economic evaluation prepared for the sample projects has resulted in an EIRR of 49.03%. An EIRR for these was not calculated at the time of appraisal. 9. Flood protection bunds. A total 5 MSI and 18 SSI flood protection bund schemes were completed under the project. At the time of appraisal, an economic evaluation for these projects was not calculated. The purpose of these subprojects was to protect the local communities during the flood and monsoon season from inundation of crops and assets. Therefore, the benefits accrued for the EIRR is the area protected from inundation and the value of the protected crops and assets. Based on these benefits, the EIRR is calculated to be 54.51%. 10. Water harvesting structures. A total of four water harvesting schemes were completed under the project. To determine the agriculture production impact, it was assessed that agriculture interventions under these schemes would lead to (i) an overall increase in cropped area, (ii) yield improvements, and (iii) increased cropping intensities. No EIRR was calculated at the time of appraisal. Based on the benefits discussed, the EIRR is calculated to be 57.88%. 11. Mangrove plantations. Mangrove plantations have benefits that include improved fodder for animal, use as firewood by the communities, personal savings in fuel wood, use of wood for poles and in house construction, and sale of herbs and honey extracted from mangroves. Mangrove re-planting benefits also include increased fish stocks upon which the local communities depend for people’s livelihoods. Based on these benefits, the EIRR for mangrove planting was calculated as 27.28%, similar to the appraisal estimate of 27.5%. 12. Hatchery improvement. Rehabilitation of the fish hatchery was undertaken in Badin; benefits that were used for the EIRR estimation included a decrease in the mortality rate of fish, and sale of fish hatchlings and fries. The EIRR for the Badin hatchery was 2.44%, as compared with the appraisal estimate of 16.64%. The actual EIRR is below that calculated at appraisal because the appraisal estimate included two hatcheries (in Hawkes Bay, Karachi and in Gharo, Thatta) that were dropped from this analysis because the government used its own resources to improve these facilities. 13. Shrimp and crab ponds. These ponds were owned by the communities and measurable benefits resulted from increased fish sales. Fish ponds with crabs and prawns were studied, including their cost and their production benefits in a given season. The EIRR for crab and shrimp ponds was calculated to be 7.47% as compared with appraisal estimates of 28.3% for shrimp ponds and 24.8% for crab ponds. The appraisal estimates were higher due to overestimation of yields and market prices. The shrimp ponds yield was appraised at 1,950 kilograms (kg) per ha after 4 months, and crab ponds production at 4,735 kg/ha after 4 months.

Appendix 9 49

The market for shrimp was large, with local prices in the project area of PRs450–PRs500/kg. Crabs were a valuable export with a significant market (PRs80/kg on pond sites), and the potential for direct seaweed exports and local sale of extracts. Based on discussions with the Sindh Livestock and Fisheries Department, it was observed that crab production was overestimated at appraisal. At completion, the shrimp ponds were yielding 2,400 kg per ha after 4 months, and the crab ponds 1,500 kg/ha. The local price for shrimp in the project area was about PRs400–PRs500/kg and for crab PRs300/kg on pond sites. 14. Seaweed. The potential for direct seaweed exports and local sale of extracts was not estimated as the communities could not sell these due to limited demand in local markets and high freight changes for export. 15. Microfinance. The NRSP financed microfinance using its own resources through linkages with CBOs established under the project; therefore the EIRR was not factored into estimate of overall project EIRR. The NRSP provided 1,193 loans to the project beneficiaries, with an overall EIRR of 27.15%. 16. Technical training. A total of 17,263 community members were trained in various technical and vocational skills through NRSP. An analysis of the trainees and their incomes before and after the training resulted in an EIRR of 41.19%. E. Sensitivity Analysis

17. The sensitivity analysis of economic costs and benefits is presented in Table A9.1. Sensitivity analyses have been performed with respect to various risk scenarios, including (i) a 10% cost increase, (ii) 10% decrease in benefits, and (iii) a simultaneous cost increase of 10% and decrease in benefits of 10%. The project remains viable even under the third scenario (a simultaneous increase in costs and decrease in benefits). In all three scenarios, the EIRR is reduced within the range of 2.13%–30.45%. F. Financial Analysis

18. A financial analysis was not undertaken at appraisal. Because the project is not a financial investment project, and most of the components have an economic benefit but no measured financial return, the FIRR is not calculated for the entire project. G. Project Impact Poverty

19. The project is currently benefiting 100,710 households and this is expected to increase to about 129,543 households by 2033. All beneficiary households are from vulnerable coastal communities, representing 42% of the households in eight taluks of two project districts. The project created 1.7 million labor-days of employment, worth PRs854 million (Table 5), through mangrove plantation and civil works contracts for MSI schemes, SSI schemes, fish ponds, the Badin hatchery, and seaweed rafts. The mangrove plantations will collectively produce benefits of PRs3.27 billion ($32.7 million equivalent) per year. The poverty impact ratio could not be calculated due to unavailability of poverty data (the government stopped issuing poverty assessments in 2006 for political reasons).

50 Appendix 9

Table A9.1: Summary of Economic Returns for Medium-scale Infrastructure Schemes (PRs)

Year Water Supply Roads and Bridges Flood Protection Bund

Total Net Economic Benefits

0 2010

1 2011 (5,570,734) (5,570,734)

2 2012 (278,537) (48,540,711 ) (6,018,867) (54,838,114)

3 2013 (16,660,781) (3,510,464 ) 1,319,057 (18,852,188)

4 2014 (920,190) 1,372,823 1,466,009 1,918,643

5 2015 (960,810) 1,937,287 1,628,410 2,604,887

6 2016 (1,003,050) 2,600,941 1,807,840 3,405,731

7 2017 (1,046,960) 3,380,263 2,006,043 4,339,347

8 2018 (1,092,589) 4,294,456 2,224,938 5,426,805

9 2019 (1,139,988) (4,342,242) 2,466,636 -3,015,594

10 2020 (1,189,205) 5,791,955 2,733,464 7,336,214

11 2021 (1,797,363) 8,089,176 3,027,983 9,319,797

12 2022 (1,293,289) 9,806,828 2,751,127 11,264,665

13 2023 (2,985,084) 11,814,911 3,711,658 12,541,485

14 2024 (1,405,223) 14,161,539 4,107,334 16,863,650

15 2025 (1,464,247) 16,902,784 4,543,803 19,982,340

16 2026 (1,525,365) 10,395,850 5,025,206 13,895,692

17 2027 (1,588,616) 23,012,604 5,556,100 26,980,088

18 2028 (1,654,038) 28,203,539 6,141,502 32,691,004

19 2029 (1,721,662) 33,294,080 6,786,935 38,359,353

20 2030 (1,791,518) 39,233,508 7,498,474 44,940,464

21 2031 (1,863,629) 46,162,330 8,282,810 52,581,511

22 2032 (1,198,974) 54,244,302 9,147,304 62,192,631

23 2033 (1,238,693) 8,874,680 7,635,987

EIRR

Cannot be calculated due to negative cash flow 12.99% 32.05% 11.07%

Sensitivity Analysis

10% Cost Increase: 11.78% 29.46% 9.81%

10% Benefit Decrease: 11.65% 29.20% 9.68% Both:

10.47% 26.82% 8.45%

( ) = negative, EIRR = economic internal rate of return. Source: Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimates.

Appendix 9 51

Table A9.2: Summary of Economic Returns for Small-scale Infrastructure Schemes

(PRs)

Year Water Supply Roads and Bridges Solar Water Harvesting Flood Protection Total Net Economic

Benefits

0 2010 (457,836) (643,200) (639,684) (1,740,721)

1 2011 (692,898) 297,305 (291,056) (372,750) (1,059,399)

2 2012 282,273 (2,565,257) (672,602) (1,299,880) 691,937 (3,563,529)

3 2013 (255,560) (290,376) 678,041 436,846 1,282,259 1,851,211

4 2014 580,992 1,376,580 1,508,762 855,588 1,412,117 5,734,040

5 2015 627,774 1,597,137 1,513,811 898,368 1,555,043 6,192,133

6 2016 678,248 1,852,893 1,519,113 943,286 1,712,346 6,705,886

7 2017 732,700 2,020,948 1,524,680 990,450 1,885,470 7,154,248

8 2018 791,441 2,493,907 1,530,525 1,039,973 2,076,001 7,931,847

9 2019 854,805 2,312,270 1,536,662 1,091,972 2,285,684 8,081,393

10 2020 877,368 3,152,364 1,479,138 1,146,570 2,516,439 9,171,879

11 2021 924,323 3,897,126 1,496,173 1,203,899 2,733,105 10,254,626

12 2022 1,076,370 4,523,757 1,435,727 1,134,106 3,023,686 11,193,646

13 2023 1,106,016 5,252,093 1,501,051 1,327,298 3,357,344 12,543,801

14 2024 1,254,570 5,970,203 1,572,270 1,393,663 3,695,737 13,886,442

15 2025 1,354,274 7,083,474 1,580,494 1,463,346 4,068,102 15,549,690

16 2026 1,461,781 7,647,301 1,589,130 1,536,514 4,477,843 16,712,569

17 2027 1,577,699 9,355,370 1,598,197 1,613,339 4,928,704 19,073,310

18 2028 1,702,678 11,110,847 1,607,718 1,694,006 5,424,806 21,540,055

19 2029 1,837,420 12,914,507 1,617,715 1,778,707 5,970,679 24,119,028

20 2030 1,982,683 15,013,659 1,628,212 1,867,642 6,571,310 27,063,505

21 2031 1,959,004 12,013,973 1,397,376 1,961,024 7,232,182 24,563,558

22 2032 978,647 13,976,029 1,078,942 2,059,075 1,469,648 19,562,343 23 2033 1,055,041 7,530,887 188,169 1,002,947 9,777,043

EIRR Sensitivity Analysis

33.64% 41.46% 49.03% 57.88% 237.15% 54.07%

10% Cost Increase: 30.70% 38.44% 44.64% 53.13% 214.53% 49.62%

10% Benefit Decrease:

30.97% 38.14% 44.20% 52.65% 212.28% 49.17%

Both: 28.22% 35.41% 40.21% 48.30% 192.06% 15.15%

( ) = negative, EIRR = economic internal rate of return. Source: Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimates.

52 Appendix 9

Table A9.3: Summary of Economic Returns for Microfinance, Badin Hatchery, Mangrove Plantations, Fish Ponds, and Training

(PRs)

Year Microfinance Hatchery Mangrove Fish Ponds Trainings Total Net

Economic Benefits

0 2010

1 2011

2 2012 (163,663) (125,678,700) (230,850,000) (160,920) (356,853,283)

3 2013 168,110 5,481,000 (11,542,500) (1,740,263) 57,029 (7,576,624)

4 2014 17,580 5,755,050 (12,119,625) 121,551 61,636 (6,163,808)

5 2015 17,580 6,042,803 (12,725,606) 127,628 66,667 (6,470,929)

6 2016 17,580 6,344,943 122,189,471 134,010 72,163 128,758,167

7 2017 17,580 6,662,190 128,298,945 140,710 78,172 135,197,597

8 2018 6,995,299 134,713,892 147,746 84,746 141,941,683

9 2019 7,345,064 141,449,587 155,133 91,941 149,041,726

10 2020 7,712,317 148,522,066 162,890 99,822 156,497,096

11 2021 8,097,933 155,948,170 171,034 108,458 164,325,595

12 2022 (5,461,470) 140,660,578 179,586 117,927 135,496,621

13 2023 8,927,971 171,932,857 2,963 180,863,791

14 2024 9,374,370 180,529,500 197,994 190,101,863

15 2025 9,843,089 189,555,975 207,893 199,606,957

16 2026 10,335,243 199,033,774 218,288 209,587,304

17 2027 10,852,005 208,985,462 229,202 220,066,670

18 2028 11,394,605 219,434,735 240,662 231,070,003

19 2029 11,964,336 230,406,472 252,696 242,623,503

20 2030 12,562,552 241,926,796 265,330 254,754,678

21 2031 13,190,680 254,023,135 278,597 267,492,412

22 2032 13,850,214 243,639,292 292,527 257,782,033

23 2033 307,153 307,153 EIRR Sensitivity Analysis 27.15% 2.44% 27.28% 7.47% 41.19% 22.31%

10% Cost Increase 18.87% 0.70% 25.58% 6.32% 27.06% 20.16% 10% Benefit Decrease 18.06% 0.54% 25.40% 6.20% 25.56% 20.00%

Both 18.86% (0.31%) 23.74% 5.11% 10.74% 18.53% ( ) = negative, EIRR = economic internal rate of return. Source: Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimates.

Appendix 9 53

Table A9.4: Project Economic Returns (PRs)

Year Water

Supply Roads/ Bridges Solar Energy

Water Harvesting Structure

Flood Protection

Bund Hatchery Mangrove Fish

Ponds Trainings

Total Net Economic Benefits

0 2010 (457,836) (643,200) (639,684) (1,740,721) 1 2011 -692,898 297,305 (291,056) (372,750) (1,059,399) 2 2012 282,273 (51,105,968) (672,602) (1,299,880) (5,326,930) (125,678,700) (230,850,000) (160,920) (414,812,727) 3 2013 (3,459,560) (3,800,840) 678,041 436,846 2,601,316 5,481,000 (11,542,500) (1,740,263) 57,029 (11,288,931) 4 2014 626,105 2,749,403 1,508,762 855,588 2,878,127 5,755,050 (12,119,625) 121,551 61,636 2,436,597 5 2015 680,532 3,534,424 1,513,811 898,368 3,183,453 6,042,803 (12,725,606) 127,628 66,667 3,322,079 6 2016 739,444 4,453,834 1,519,113 943,286 3,520,187 6,344,943 122,189,471 134,010 72,163 139,916,450 7 2017 803,199 5,401,211 1,524,680 990,450 3,891,514 6,662,190 128,298,945 140,710 78,172 147,791,070 8 2018 872,183 6,788,364 1,530,525 1,039,973 4,300,939 6,995,299 134,713,892 147,746 84,746 156,473,666 9 2019 946,815 (2,029,972) 1,536,662 1,091,972 4,752,320 7,345,064 141,449,587 155,133 91,941 155,339,522

10 2020 981,760 8,944,319 1,479,138 1,146,570 5,249,904 7,712,317 148,522,066 162,890 99,822 174,298,787 11 2021 1,042,311 11,986,302 1,496,173 1,203,899 5,761,088 8,097,933 155,948,170 171,034 108,458 185,815,369 12 2022 1,209,272 14,330,585 1,435,727 1,134,106 5,774,813 (5,461,470) 140,660,578 179,586 117,927 159,381,124 13 2023 934,865 17,067,004 1,501,051 1,327,298 7,069,002 8,927,971 171,932,857 2,963 208,763,010 14 2024 1,421,723 20,131,742 1,572,270 1,393,663 7,803,070 9,374,370 180,529,500 197,994 222,424,332 15 2025 1,541,022 23,986,258 1,580,494 1,463,346 8,611,904 9,843,089 189,555,975 207,893 236,789,981 16 2026 1,669,961 18,043,152 1,589,130 1,536,514 9,503,048 10,335,243 199,033,774 218,288 241,929,109 17 2027 1,809,305 32,367,975 1,598,197 1,613,339 10,484,804 10,852,005 208,985,462 229,202 267,940,290 18 2028 1,959,873 39,314,385 1,607,718 1,694,006 11,566,308 11,394,605 219,434,735 240,662 287,212,294 19 2029 2,122,553 46,208,587 1,617,715 1,778,707 12,757,614 11,964,336 230,406,472 252,696 307,108,679 20 2030 2,298,299 54,247,167 1,628,212 1,867,642 14,069,784 12,562,552 241,926,796 265,330 328,865,783 21 2031 2,307,866 58,176,303 1,397,376 1,961,024 15,514,992 13,190,680 254,023,135 278,597 346,849,973 22 2032 1,363,748 68,220,331 1,078,942 2,059,075 10,616,952 13,850,214 243,639,292 292,527 341,121,082 23 2033 1,479,626 16,405,567 188,169 1,002,947 307,153 19,383,462

EIRR Sensitivity Analysis

18.88% 16.07% 49.03% 57.88% 54.51% 2.44% 27.28% 7.47% 41.19% 22.14%

10% Cost Increase

16.80% 14.75% 44.64% 53.13% 49.53% 0.70% 25.58% 6.32% 롎 7.06% 20.08%

10% Benefit Decrease

16.58% 14.61% 44.20% 52.65% 49.04% 0.54% 25.40% 6.20% 25.56% 19.92%

Both 14.62% 13.34% 40.21% 48.30% 44.64% (0.31%) 23.74% 5.11% 10.74% 18.43% ( ) = negative, EIRR = economic internal rate of return. Source: Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimates.

54 Appendix 9

Table A9.5: Total Labor Days Created

Scheme Type Total

Schemes

Average Days to

complete scheme

Labor Provided per day

(No.)

Paid Labor (Days) Unpaid Village Labor (Days)

Male Female Total Male Female Total

SSI

Education 18 57 8 8,208 8,208 2,052 2,052

Solar Panels 199 10 10 15,920 3,980 19,900 1,990 1,990

Roads 263 29 7 42,711 10,678 53,389 20,593 2,288 22,881

Drinking Water Supply 788 31 8 156,339 39,085 195,424 48,856 48,856

Flood Protection Bund 18 35 10 5,040 1,260 6,300 1,890 1,890

Water Harvesting Structures 5 40 10 2,000 400 400

Subtotal 228,218 55,003 285,221 75,781 2,288 78,069

MSI

School 12 105 15 18,900 18,900

Bridge 10 108 25 26,875 26,875

Link Road 122 188 30 411,750 274,500 686,250

Drinking Water Supply 19 180 20 68,400 68,400

Flood Protection Bund 5 10 10 500 500

Subtotal 526,425 274,500 800,925

Others Badin Hatchery Rehabilitation 1 420 15 6,300 6,300 Mangrove planting (Base camp and walk base) 595,086 595,086

Crab Ponds 30 120 5 18,000 18,000

Seaweed Raft 80 5 4 1,600 1,600

Total 1,375,629 329,503 1,707,132 75,781 2,288 78,069 Cost based on daily wage rate of PRs500

(PRs) 687,814,451 164,751,300 853,565,751 37,890,450 1,144,050 39,034,500 MSI = medium-scale infrastructure, SSI = small-scale infrastructure. Source: Asian Development Bank Project Completion Review Mission estimates.

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