Competitive Bidding in Renewable Energy Projects · 2019-01-25 · Power Projects from 20 GW to 100...
Transcript of Competitive Bidding in Renewable Energy Projects · 2019-01-25 · Power Projects from 20 GW to 100...
Three Day Programme on “Renewable Energy Regulation” – Organised by ASCI
Competitive Bidding in Renewable Energy Projects
21 January 2019
By Ajit Pandit, Director Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd.
May.2018Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 2
Contents
❑ Background
❑ Experience in Solar Competitive Bidding
❑ Experience in Wind Competitive Bidding
❑ Recent Regulatory & Policy Developments
❑ Challenges & Keys Issues
❑ Way Forward
>20%
3
RE Capacity Addition Targets
NAPCC RE Invest 2015
• NAPCC target of 5% for RE Procurement in 2010
• Target to increase by 1% each year to reach 15% by 2020
• Targets 175 GW by 2022
• Includes 60 GW from Wind, 100 GW from Solar and 15
GW from other RE
• 90% of the targeted RE capacity addition planned from Wind
and Solar source which are inherently variable in nature
2015 2022 2032
Wind Solar Biomass SHP
38
GW
175
GW
440
GW
CEA perspective plan for FY 2032
• CEA has projected RE capacity additions till 2032
• RE penetration level to increase by 8%, 18% up to 20% by 2032
8%
18%
COP -21, Paris
• Reducing carbon emission intensity levels by 35% by 2030
compared to 2005 levels.
• INDCs Commitment- 40% of the total installed power
generation capacity would be from non-fossil fuel sources by
2030.
NTP Amendments
• 8% of electricity consumption shall be from solar energy by
Mar’22 .
• RGO (Renewable Generation Obligation): New coal based
plants to establish RE capacity
• Promotion of micro grids and ancillary services for RE
• Waiver of interstate charges for wind and solar
Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 4
RE Capacity Addition Target – National and State perspective
Technology Potential(MW)
Targets (MW)
Solar 749,000 100,000
Wind 103,000 60,000
Bio-energy 25,000 10,000
Small hydro power
20,000 5,000
Total 897,000 175,000
- 5 10 15 20 25
Maharashtra
UttarPradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Karnataka
Madhya Pradesh
West Bengal
Punjab
Haryana
Delhi
Bihar
Orissa
Jharkhand
Kerala
Chhattisgarh
North Eastern Region
Jammu & Kashmir
Others
Uttrakhand
Himachal Pradesh
Goa
Telangana
Capacity allocation in GW
Solar
Wind
Biomass
SHP
57%
34%
6% 3%
Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 5
RE Potential (Wind & Solar) – National and State perspective
44229 MW
2869 MW
33880 MW
55857 MW
10484 MW
84431 MW
18870 MW
1700 MW
Wind Power Potential• Potential of over 302 GW (at 100 meter above ground level)
38 GW25
GW
18 GW
64 GW
62 GW
36 GW
142 GW
6 GW18
GW
5 GW
3 GW
23 GW
11 GW
18 GW
26 GW20
GW
17 GW
9 GW
6 GW
2 GW
111 GW
14 GW
34 GW
11 GW
9 GW
Solar PotentialIndia has potential for 748 GW(considering deployment on 3% of wastelands)
Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 6
Solar & Wind Sector development at a Glance (1/2)
Wind.Expected capacity addition~4-5 GW/Year to meet
25
35
14
7
23
2
38
16
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Solar
Wind
GW
Status of Target Achievement of Wind & Solar
Installed Capacity as on 31/12/2018 Under Implementation
Tendered Balance 4 Target
SolarExpected capacity addition~12-15 GW/Year to meet
May.2018Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 7
Solar & Wind Sector development at a Glance (2/2)
Solar PV • Govt. has revised target for Grid Connected Solar
Power Projects from 20 GW to 100 GW by FY2021-22 under NSM.
• ~25.21 GW is the total Installed Capacity as onDecember, 2018, with a historic lowest tariff ofRs. 2.44/kWh in July, 2018.
• Remaining capacity addition is planned to bid outin FY 19 & FY 20 & remaining 2 years for itsexecution.
• 47 Solar Parks of ~27 GW has been approved for21 States upto Nov, 2018. As on date 4.2 GW havebeen installed inside various Solar Parks.
Wind• ~35 GW is the total Installed Capacity as against
60 GW Target as on December, 2018, with ahistoric lowest tariff of Rs. 2.43/kWh.
• FiT regime shifted to CB from 2017, postnotification of Wind CB Guidelines in Dec, 2017.
• W-S Hybrid Policy issued in May, 2018 & 1st 1.2GW Greenfield tender was floated by SECI with aTariff discovery of Rs.2.67/kWh.
• Off-Shore Wind Potential identified off the coastsof Gujarat & Tamil Nadu by NIWE.
• 1st LiDAR was commissioned at Gulf of Khambhat,Gujarat.
• EoI for offshore was floated by NIWE for 1 GWoffshore wind farm at Gulf of Khambhat, Guj.
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Brief overview of NSM Guidelines notified by MoP
Batch-I and Batch-II Batch-I Batch-II Tranche-I
Batch-III Batch-IV
Target (Utility Scale Solar)
1000 MW to 2000 MW 750 MW 3000 MW 2000 MW 5000 MW FY 16- 1250 MWFY 17- 1250 MWFY 18- 1250 MWFY 19- 1250 MW
Scheme Bundling of power VGF Bundling of power
- -
Others 84 MW (under Migration scheme) & DCR (30% under Solar Thermal)
375 MW (DCR)
500 MW (DCR) 250 MW (DCR)
❑ Capacity Addition of at least 8 to 10 GW per annum is necessary if target of Utility Scale 60 GW by 2022 is to be achieved.
❑ Shortfall in RTPV/Decentralised Solar target of 40 GW may translate to higher target for Utility scale solar.
Phase 1 (2010-13) Phase 2 (2013-17)
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Competitive Bidding framework (Solar) – 1/2
Driver for RE Capacity AdditionJNNSM
Overview
Central Govt.
initiativeExperience summary
Wind Bidding guidelines
Overview
Ove
rarc
hin
g fr
amew
ork
fo
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idd
ing
in s
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Preparatory Activities
•Identification of 100% land at bidding stage-procession within 7 months from PPA
•Clearances (Environmental/Forest)
•Grid Connectivity
Bidding Parameters & Process
•Bid Size 50 MW
•Tariff (single part) based
•Fixed / Escalating
•VGF based
•Single stage two envelope process followed by e-Reverse Auction
Qualification & Bidding conditions
•Past track record; timely execution etc
•Financial criteria - (at least 20% of est. cap cost)
•EMD, PBG
Location
•Solar Park
•Non-Solar Park
•Taluka wise (e.g. Karnataka)
•District/ Substation wise (e.g. Telangana)
Timelines and milestones
•Issue of RFP to PPA – 150 days
•Financial Closure – 7mths from PPA
•CoD – 13 mths from PPA
PPA Terms & conditions
•25 years
•No unilateral termination allowed
•No PPA amendment allowed
Curtailment compensation
Back down- compensation @min 50% of PPA tariff
Grid Unavailability- compensation through excess power procurement
Payment Security
•LC (equiv. of 1 mth billing)
•PSF (equiv. of 3 mths billing)
•SGG (to cover energy charges plus termination compensation) (optional)
Model
•Ground Mounted
•Roof Top
•Capex (Turn-key Basis)
•Developer (or RESCO)
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JNNSM Phase 1 Bidding
JNNSM Phase I Batch I JNNSM Phase I Batch II
Managed by NVVN NVVN
Capacity AllocationPV: 150 MW (PPA signed only for 140MW) CSP: 470
MWPV: 350 MW (PPA signed for 340 MW)1 CSP: Nil
Allocation methodReverse bidding on benchmark tariff (per kWh): PV:
INR 17.91/kWh, CSP: INR 15.31/kWh
Reverse bidding on benchmark tariff (per kWh):
INR 15.39/kWh
Commissioning time
period PV: 12 months, CSP: 28 months 13 Months
Project allocation Dec-10 Dec-11
No. of bids submitted PV: 343, CSP: 55 PV: 183
Total capacity of the bids
submitted PV:1715 PV:1890
No. of projects selected PV: 30, CSP: 8 PV:26
Maximum capacity by a
bidder PV: 5 MW, CSP: 100 MW 50 MW
Range of the winning
bids
PV: INR 10.95/kWh - 12.76/kWh, CSP: INR 10.49/kWh
- 12.24/kWhPV: INR 7.49/kWh - 9.44/kWh
Weighted average of the
winning bidsPV: INR 12.16/kWh , CSP: 11.48/kWh PV: INR 8.77 / KWh
Projects commissioned PV: 140 MW, CSP: 50 MW PV:330 MW
Prominent project
Developers
PV: All project developers allocated 5 MW, CSP: Rajasthan sun
technique energy pvt. ltd, KVK energy ventures private limited
- each 100 MW
PV: Welspun Solar - 50MW, Azure Power - 35MW,
Green Infra Solar: 35MW
JNNSM Phase 1
Guidelines
Competitive Bidding Experience- JNNSM (Ph-I)
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❖ Reverse Bidding process is strictly notconformity with S63 provisions.
❖ In Batch-1 (SPV), many bidders (571 MWof 2911 MW) opted for ‘zero discount’
❖ In Batch-2 (SPV), 75 of 184 bidders (960MW of 2185 MW) opted for ‘zerodiscount’
❖ Key success factors and Supportframework for NVVNL framework▪ Assured long term off-take through
trading co. (NVVNL) with bundledpower
▪ Payment security mechanism backed byMNRE
▪ Appropriate Risk allocation andmitigation mechanism
Discount Ps/unit
Discount Ps/unit
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JNNSM Phase 2 Bidding (Batch-I, II, III)
JNNSM Phase 2 Batch 1 JNNSM Phase 2 Batch 2 JNNSM Phase 2 Batch 3
Managed by SECI NVVN SECI
Capacity Allocation PV: 750 MW CSP-NIL PV:3000 MW CSP-NIL PV: 2000 MW CSP: NIL
Minimum and Maximum
Project Capacity Min: 10 MW, Max: 50 MW Min:10MW Max: 50 MW
Min: 10 MW
Max: Fixed by SECI
Allocation method
Reverse bidding for viability gap
funding demand. Maximum VGF:
INR 25 million/MW
Reverse Bidding on CERC
Benchmark Tariff(through e-
reverse auction)
Reverse Bidding on viability gap
funding (through e-reverse
auction)
Commissioning time
period
13 Months 13 Months of the date of
signing of PPA.
13 Months of the date of
signing of PPA.
Maximum capacity by a
bidder
100 MW 500 MW 250 MW
Range of the winning bids DCR: INR 13.5 million/MW - INR
24.56 million/MW.
Open: INR 1.7 million/MW - INR
13.5 million/MW
DCR- Rs 5.19/ unit- 5.06/unit
Open- Rs 4.80/ unit- 4.34/unit
DCR- INR 13 million/MW – INR
6.5 million/MW
Open-INR 9.99 million/MW -
INR 4.45 million/MW
Prominent project
developers
PV: Azure power - 100 MW, Acme -
60 MW, Waaree energies Pvt. Ltd -
50 MW, Today homes -50 MW
SunEdison- 500 MW, SBG
Cleantech- 350 MW
ACME- 250 MW, Mahindra- 250
MW, Solanergy-250 MW
JNNSM Phase 2
Guidelines
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Capacity of Solar Power Projects Commissioned or in Pipeline (As on September,2018)
Source: Bridge to India
Q3 2018 saw commissioning of 1,188 MW of utility scale solar capacity, up 65% over Q2 2018
In MW
In M
W
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Trend of price discovery through Competitive Bidding framework (Solar)
12.20
8.40
3.17
2.84
3.02
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Rs/
kWh
MW
Capacity (in MW) Weighted Average Tariff (in Rs/kWh)
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Competitive Bidding Regime –
Analysis & Key Learnings from the Wind Auction Process
❑ Central v/s State Auctions
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Overview of Competitive Bidding Framework – Wind Projects
Bid Size
• Inter-State bid capacity 25 MW
• Inter-State bid capacity 50 MW
Preparatory Activities
• Identification of 100% land at bidding stage-procession within 7 months from PPA
• Clearances (Environmental/Forest)
• Grid Connectivity
Bidding Parameters & Process
• Tariff (single part) based
• Single stage two envelope process
• Single stage two envelope process followed by e-Reverse Auction
Qualification & Bidding conditions
• Past track record, timely execution etc.
• Financial criteria - (at least 20% of est. cap cost)
• EMD, PBG
Timelines and milestones
• Issue of RFP to PPA – 105 days
• Financial Closure – 7mths from PPA
• CoD – 18 months from PPA
PPA Terms & conditions
• 25 years
• To declare CUF upfront and allowed one time revision in first year of CoD
• Allowed to repower plant
Curtailment compensation
• Offtake constraints due to Grid Unavailability-
• Offtake constraints due to Back down
Payment Security
• LC (equiv. of 1 Month billing)
• PSF (equiv. of 3 Months billing)
• SGG (to cover energy charges plus termination compensation)(optional)
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Competitive Bidding – An Experience till now
Competitive Bidding for the Wind Projects was introduced in November, 2016, making the Wind Energy Sectorentirely Market Driven.
Resulted in withdrawal of regulated tariffs & financial aids available to WPDs in form of AD & GBIs.
Positive Outlook – Wind Tariffs fell to an all time low, resulting in greater wind power offtake.
Increased focus on technological innovation by the manufacturers for further bringing down the LevelisedCost & increasing the PLF.
Biggest Challenge pertains to Grid Connectivity allocation and access.
Leads to significant cost overruns during project development & possibly idle capacity post commissioning ofthe project, due to lack of Transmission Connectivity.
Challenges further amplified by Short-Term milestones created by the Competitive Bidding that questions theviability of Wind Projects.
Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 19
Trend of price discovery through Competitive Bidding framework (Wind)
❑ In the past three years, around ~ 7500 MW of Wind capacity projects has been awarded thru CBG framework.
❑ Price discovery has hit low end ~ Rs 2.5 pu and ticket size of project has varied from 50 MW to 250 MW.
Central Govt. initiative Experience summary
1000
450
1000
500
2000
500
2000
1200 1200
87
1050
₹3.46 ₹3.42
₹2.64₹2.43 ₹2.44
₹2.85
₹2.51
₹2.77 ₹2.76
₹2.51₹2.67
₹0.00
₹0.50
₹1.00
₹1.50
₹2.00
₹2.50
₹3.00
₹3.50
₹4.00
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Tari
ff In
Rs.
pu
Cap
acit
y in
MW
Capacity (MW) Lowest Tariff (in Rs/ kWh)FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19
20
Statistics of Developer-wise capacity award (Central Bid and State Bids)
1415
950
850799.9
742.6 739.2
600 575497.5
450375.6
300 300 285 280.1 250 250200 200 200 175
100 75 50 50 30
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Developer Capacity (MW) for all 10 Bids
SECI 1 SECI 2 SECI 3 SECI 4 SECI 5 SECI 6 (Hybrid) NTPC Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Nadu Total
• From the above graph it is seen that Adani Green has the maximum capacity of 1415 MW • The lowest Capacity is with K.P Energy of 30 MW
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Range of Bid wise awarded tariff
3.46 3.422.85 2.77 2.76 2.67 2.64 2.51 2.44 2.43
3.46 3.42
2.86 2.8 2.76 2.68 2.642.51 2.44 2.43
3.46 3.43
2.87 2.83 2.77 2.69 2.652.52 2.45 2.45
SECI 1 SECI 2 SECI 3 SECI 4 SECI 5 SECI 6(Hybrid)
NTPC Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Nadu
Bid Wise Tariff (Rs./kWh)
Average
• Average Bid wise quoted tariff range from Rs.3.46/kWh for SECI 1 to Rs.2.43/kWh for Tamil Nadu
• The range of Maximum quoted tariff for State level Bids (vix. Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu) varies from Rs.2.52/kWh (MH) to Rs.2.45/kWh (Gujarat & Tamil Nadu)
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Wind Projects under Bidding & Planning Calendar
Bid Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Capacity
(MW)1000 2450 2950 4950 6950 7450 11050
2016-17
SECI-1
(1000)
Bid -
Feb-17
LOA-
Mar-17
PPA-
Sept-17
Commiss
ion-
Sept-18
Bid-Oct-
17
LOA-
Nov-17
Bid-Apr-
18
LOA-
May-18
SECI-5
(1200)
Bid-
Sept-18
LOA-
Oct-18
PPA-
Jan-19
Commiss
ion-Jul-
20
NTPC
(1200)
Bid-Aug-
18LOA-
Oct-18
PPA-
Jan-19
Commiss
ion-Jul-
20
Maharas
htra
(500)
Bid-
Sept-18
LOA-
Oct-18
PPA-
Nov-18
Commiss
ion-
May-20
Tamil
Nadu
(450)
Bid-Aug-
17
LOA-
Sept-17
PPA-
Oct-17
Commiss
ion-Apr-
19
2019-20 2020-21
PPA-
May-18
2017-18 2018-19
SECI-2
(1000)
SECI-3
(2000)
PPA-
May-18
Commiss
ion-
May-19
SECI-4
(2000)
Commiss
ion-
Nov-19
PPA-
Aug-18
Bid-Dec-
18
LOA-
Jan-19
PPA-
Mar-19
Commisi
on-Feb-
20
SECI-6
(Hybrid)
(1200)
Commiss
on- Jul-
20
Gujarat
(500)
Bid-Dec-
17
Bid,LOA-
Feb-18
Commiss
ion-Aug-
19
LOA-
Jan-18
PPA-
Feb-18
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Upcoming Wind Tenders
Date of Announcement
Agency Capacity (MW) RFS Status
24 December 2018
Maharashtra 500 Not Issued
28 November 2018
Tamil Nadu TANGEDCO 500 Not Issued
31 December 2018
SECI-Tranche -6 1200 Issued
Announcements• India finalizes bids for setting up over 8,000 MW wind power projects through SECI & NTPC: RK Singh• Beside above projects, bids of 500 MW each have been finalized by the states of Tamil Nadu, Gujarat,
and Maharashtra
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Factors affecting Solar and Wind tariff through Bidding Process
❑ Bankability of PPA: Tri-patriate Agreement between, Sate Govts, RBI and SECI.
❑ FDIs: Number of foreign investors are investing aggressively.
❑ Solar Parks: Development of solar parks reduced number of issues.
Project Structuring
• Stakeholder’s Risk
Assessment
• Ring fencing of risks
• Creditworthiness of
the off-takers
Contract Structuring
• EPC Vs Package- Wise
Contracting
• Managing
commercial risks
• Mitigation of
Technical Risks
External Conditions
• Policy Visibility
• Change in Law
• Economic conditions
of the Host Country
(inflation, growth)
• Geo-political
conditions
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Transparent Tendering process
❑ Industry standard open, transparent
bidding process
❑e-bidding platform
❑Reverse Auction platform.
❑Project specific elaborated technical
specifications.
❑Continuously updating the technical
specs along with market trends and
best practices.
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Some other developments related to Bidding
❑ Postponing of solar bids on several occasions, poor response to bids
□ 1 GW solar PV tender by MSEDCL (postponed 4 times)
□ Karnataka (once), allowed 550 MW out of the 1200 MW bid for which prices received were below ceiling rate. But no reverse bidding.
❑ ‘Change in Law’ uncertainty; pass through of safeguard duty of imported panels
□ MNRE later issued a clarification (2/4/18) to the solar bidding guidelines stating, "As per Clause 5.7.2 of said Guidelines, the term 'Change in Law' includes any change in the rates of any Taxes which have a direct effect on the Project. To remove uncertainty, it is hereby clarified that the term 'change in the rates of any taxes' as mentioned in clause 5.7.2 of solar bidding guidelines includes "change in rates of taxes, duties and cess."
❑ Cancellation of solar bids by GUVNL
□ Sep, 2017, 500 MW, price Rs 2.65-2.67/kWh
□ March, 2018, 500 MW, price Rs 2.98-3.06/kWh
□ Eventually GUVNL board resolved to cancel the bid, as “discovered were on the higher side” as per clause 3.22 of the RFS which allows the procurer the right to annul the bidding process “at any stage without assigning any reasons”
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Delay in meeting Conditions Subsequent
❑MPPMCL□ Procurer cancelled the PPA due “delay in achieving conditions subsequent” and invoked bank
guarantee for the same delay. Essentially a 16 day delay in procuring 100% in the developers name even after a 9 month extension beyond the 210 day timeline.
❑High Court: ReNew Clean Energy Private Ltd Vs MPPMCL & Ors □ Renew Power filed a Writ Petition (12432 of 2017) at the MP HC against the respondent’s stand
regarding cancellation of PPA due to “delay in achieving conditions subsequent” of project and invocation of bank guarantee for the same delay.
□ The Court maintained that MPPMCL‘s invocation of bank guarantee was valid as per clause 2.1 in the PPA, and while the reasons for delay did not come under force majeure, the petitioner had no alternate remedy for the same.
□ Hence, while the prayer of quashing the order of termination was allowed, the HC upheld the invocation of bank guarantee by MPPMCL for the delay.
❑Supreme Court: MPPMCL Vs ReNew Clean Energy Private Ltd & ANR□ In response to this, MPPMCL filed a Civil Appeal at the SC to rescind the PPA. The Court upheld the HC’s
verdict and ordered the respondent to pay the fine of Rs. 119 million in the form of invoked bank guarantee while still setting aside the order on termination of contract.
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Land Acquisition
Wind Developers who have won projects in Gujarat through SECI Tranche IV 2000 MW are in bind, since they have been asked to achieve Financial Closure by 3 January , 2019 (The same has been extended by 2 Months –News Article)
• Developers after the award of Contract, approached Govt. of Gujarat for leasing of Land.
• With a scarcity of sites that have adequate wind speed in Gujarat, the State Govt. decided that the it will leaseland solely to its own utility , GUVNL and not for Centrally allocated projects, whose power can be suppliedanywhere in the country through ISTS.
“We are keen to have an amicable solution to the issue, but SECI should have first consulted the state as towhether we can give land or not,” said a senior Gujarat government functionary dealing with the issue. “Wewant the entire sector to develop. It is in the overall benefit of the state and the country, so we will allot the land.”
• SECI’s 2,000 MW wind auction in April left its developers to decide where they wanted to locate theirprojects. Since the best wind energy sites are available mostly in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, most of thewinners sought to set up projects in Gujarat.
• SECI has since conducted another 2,000 MW wind auction in June, followed by a 1,200 MW auction inSeptember, many of whose winners too are keen on Gujarat-based sites.
• Of the total of 7,000 MW of wind projects auctioned by SECI this year, around 3,500 MW are expected to bein Gujarat.
*Source : Economics Times
30
Forecasting & Scheduling Regulations & Status (1/2)
IEGC CERC RRF
Framework
CERC Order deferment of
RRF
CERC postpones commercial
implementation of RRF
CERC Notifies: IEGC & DSM
Reg. with revised
framework
FOR Model F&S
Regulations (State)
SAMAST Report
CERC Procedure for
implementation of F&S
April, 2010
March, 2012
Jan, 2014
August, 2015
Nov. 2015
July. 2016
March. 2017
Salient Features of CERC F&S RegulationsParameter Description
Definition of
Forecasting Error
Error (%) = (Actual Generation – Scheduled Generation) / (Available Capacity) x100
Where Available Capacity is the cumulative capacity rating
of the Wind turbines/Solar inverters that are capable of
generating power in a given time block.
Tolerance limits Within +/-15% band.
Data telemetry Required at the Wind turbine/Solar inverter level.
Parameters such as turbine availability, power output and
real-time weather measurements (Wind speed,
temperature, pressure etc.) must be provided by the
Generator.
Parameter Description
Objective To maintain grid discipline and grid security as
envisaged under Grid Code through commercial
mechanism for deviation settlement through drawl and
injection of electricity by users of the grid.Applicability Applicable to Solar and Wind Generators which are
Regional entities
Forecasting Multiple forecasting by both the RLDC/REMC and Solar
and Wind Generators/ (QCAs on behalf of Gen) for betterconfidence level/lower Forecast Errors.
Frequency of
revision of
schedule per day
1 revision for each time slot of 1.5 Hrs. starting from
00:00 hours of a particular day maximum of 16
revisions during the day.
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Final Regulations notified by following States…• Andhra Pradesh• Chhattisgarh• Jharkhand• Karnataka• Rajasthan• Tripura• Uttarakhand• Uttar Pradesh• Madhya Pradesh• Maharashtra• Telangana• Assam, Mizoram• Sikkim, Manipur, Meghalaya
• Around 4 states have notified procedures• Implementation of F&S at State level underway
Notified: 17 States; Draft: 5 States
Forecasting & Scheduling Regulations & Status (2/2)
May.2018Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt. Ltd. 32
Co-existence of FITs, RECs, CBG framework
Preferential Tariff regime
APPC + REC regime
Competitive Bidding ??
Captive/Third Party RE Wheeling
Renewable Attributes
Electricity Component
Regulated Market determined
Regulated
Market determined
RPO target setting and Enforcement is crucial
RE resource specific RPO target setting and stringent enforcement is crucial
33
Conclusion
❑ Highly competitive price discovery under bidding process, both for solar and wind.
❑ Transmission connectivity and LTA could soon become a bottleneck and major risk factor.
□ New framework to minimise risk, better risk allocation
□ Lesser risk for solar since resource not very site-specific, existence of solar parks.
□ CTU/STU must proactively plan and build transmission corridors for renewable energy, considering
long term targets and likely resource locations.
❑Will soon need newer bidding frameworks for offshore wind, wind-solar hybrids,
wind/solar + storage etc.
❑ Further, will need to prepare for competition across renewables (wind vs solar etc.) and
further still competition across all generation sources (renewables vs coal, gas etc.)
❑ Long term targets and frequent bids necessary until DISCOMs internalize least cost planning
incl. renewables.
Thank You
Mumbai Delhi Kolkata Hyderabad
801, Crystal Plaza,158, CST Road,Kalina, Santacruz (E),Mumbai — 400 098Phone: +91 22 4057 0200
A-31, Second Floor,Lajpat Nagar II, Near Lajpat Metro Station,New Delhi — 110 024Phone: +91 11 4943 4000
1st floor, Globsyn Crystal - Tower IXI - 11 & 12, Block EP, Salt Lake Electronics Complex, Sector-5, Salt Lake, Kolkata - 700091
House No. 3-51, Flat No. 201,Abhishek Towers,(Opp. HAL Gate), Balanagar,Hyderabad — 500 042Phone: +91 40 6999 8062
Contact:
Balawant Joshi +91 98214 21630
Ajit Pandit +91 98211 08222
Email: [email protected]