Changing nature of South-South trade: Implications for world trade prospects
Competing In the Changing South
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“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth” Mike Tyson
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The Last Decade Was….Not Good
27%
22%20%
-1%-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010
Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
Employment
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The Last Decade Was….Not Good
34%
40% 40%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010
Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
Real GDP
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The Last Decade Was….Not Good
27%
47%
61%
-3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010
Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
Real HH Income
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USA Total Nonfarm Payroll
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1961 1064 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Source: BLS, Jan 2012
In thousands
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Unemployment SummaryJanuary 2011
13.8%
8.7%7.7%
4.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Less thanHS
HS Grad SomeCollege
BA Plus
National Unemployment rate in January, 8.3%, down from 9.4% in December 2010
For Whites (7.4%), Blacks (13.6%), Hispanics (10.5%)
Source: BLS Jan 2012
Unemployment Rate By Education
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Employment Monthly Net Change 2000- Jan 2012
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2000 2008
Jobs
Source: BLS Nov 2011
In thousands
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The Stock Market
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(NATIONAL)
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US % Employment Change December 2010-December 2011
1.2%0.8%
1.6%1.2%
0.2%
2.6%
2.0%1.9%
-0.6%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: BLS, Jan, 2012
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Total % Manufacturing Employment Change December 2010-December 2011
1.60%1.78%
1.50%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
2.00%
United States American South Non-SouthernStates
Source: BLS, Jan, 2012
Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted
The American South States and Territories represent 34.3% of all US Manufacturing employment in Dec 2011
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Southern States 5-Year % Employment Changes
-5.7%
-1.8%
-9.5%
-7.5%
-2.5%
3.0%
-2.3%
-4.9%-3.8%
-5.4%
1.5%
-4.4%-4.6%
4.4%
-2.2%-0.5%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Nov 2006- Nov 2011
Total -1,478,000 lost jobs
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Southern States 1-Year % Employment Changes
0.2%0.6%
1.4%
-0.5%
1.2%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1.0%
0.4%
2.8%
1.8%
1.2%
2.2%
0.5%
0.8%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Nov 2010- Nov 2011
Total +562,300 gained jobs
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Southern States 1-Year Employment Projections 2012
1.5% 1.5%
2.2%
1.7%2.0%
1.8%
-0.1%
0.8%0.6%
1.2%1.4% 1.2%1.4%
2.0%
1.0%1.1%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: Moody’s Analysis and USA Today Jan 11,2012
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Change“ The future ain’t what it used to be.”
Yogi Berra
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The Churn in the Economy
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Business Employment Net Private Job Gains and Losses By Quarter
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011
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Business Employment Dynamics (Churn)
Net Private Job Gains and Losses
-10,000-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
2000-1
2000-3
2001-1
2001-3
2002-1
2002-3
2003-1
2003-3
2004-1
2004-3
2005-1
2005-3
2006-1
2006-3
2007-1
2007-3
2008-1
2008-3
2009-1
2009-3
2010-1
2010-3
Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011
In millions
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Businesses Opening and Closing
644,122
-604,201
670,058
-619,695
668,395
-620,732
626,400
-707,446
552,600
-721,737-1,000,000
-800,000-600,000-400,000-200,000
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Births Closures/Bankruptcies
Source: US Small Business Administration Aug 2011
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40 Years Ago Alvin Toffler Wrote That the Pace of Change…
“Is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society.”
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2007 Bear Stearns, Leman Brothers, WaMu,
Wachovia MySpace Kindle, IPad, Twitter, Hulu
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What Is the New Normal?“The future is not some place we
are going to, but one we are creating.”
John Schaar
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Demographic Shifts
Specialization
Intensifying Competition
Corporate Integration
Technology (Speed)
The Omni Customer
Natural Resources Urbanization
Global Interdependence
Complexity
Changing Institutions
Radical Decentralization
Community Resilience
Trends Changing Our World
The Role of Talent
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Demographic Shifts
Specialization
Intensifying Competition
Corporate Integration
Technology (Speed)
The Omni Customer
Natural Resources Urbanization
Global Interdependence
Complexity
Changing Institutions
Radical Decentralization
Community Resilience
Trends Changing Our World
The Role of Talent
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Global Interdependence
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Top % GDP Growers in 20121) Macau2) Mongolia3) Libya4) Iraq5) Angola6) Niger7) China8) Ethiopia9) Rwanda10) Laos
Source: The Economist, The World in 2012
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Foreign Direct Investment in U.S.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
In $ Billions
Top Region: South
Top Sector: Manufacturing
Source: Southern Business & Development, Summer 2011
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Foreign Direct Investment 2010
228
106
69 6248 46 46 41 39 32 32 28 26 25 25
0
50
100
150
200
250
Source: Rediff.com, Global FDI
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U.S. Foreign Direct Investment
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-07
FDI OutflowFDI Inflow
In $ Billions
Source: BEA
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U.S. Exports & Imports (Goods)
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010
Exports Imports
In $Millions
Source: Census, World Almanac 2009 & U.S. BEA 2010
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U.S. Exports 2009-2011
$-$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000
2009-Jan
2009-May
2009-Sept
2010-Jan
2010-May
2010-Sept
2011-Jan
2011-May
Exports
42% Increase
Source: BLS Sept 2011
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Less than 1% of U.S. firms export and of those that
do more than ½ export to only one country
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Export Customers of the Future
91%85% 80%
15%9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
U.S. Japan U.K. China India
% Middle Class
Source: Adler-Miller-McCune 2008
By 2020 80% of the middle income consumers in the world will live outside the “developed” countries
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The Role of Talent
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Creative Work
Routine Work
Outsourced
RoutineWork
Machines
Routine Work
Source: National Center on Education and the Economy, Tough Choices or Tough Times, 2007
Work Shifts
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Educational Requirements For U.S. Jobs 1973-2018
32%10% 11% 10%
40%
34% 30% 28%
19% 17% 17%
12%19% 21% 23%
9%19% 21% 23%
7% 10% 11% 10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1973 1992 2007 2018
HS Dropouts HS Grads Some CollegeAssoc. Degree BA Grad Degree
Source: Center on Education and the Workforce, Dec 2009
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Middle-Skills Require more than a high school degree
but less than a BA degree 52% of employers said in 2011 manpower
survey that they were struggling to fill positions, an all-time high
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Southern Skills Mismatch
32%
43%
25%
29%
51%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
High Skills
Middle Skills
Low-Skill
JobsWorkers
Source: Middle skill jobs in the American South’s Economy, National Skills Coalition, August 2011
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National Association of Manufacturers 2011 Skills Gap
67% report shortage of qualified workers 56% expect shortages to get worse (3-5 yrs) 5% of current jobs unfilled due to no qualified
Source: National Association of Manufacturers 2011 Skills Gap
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Demographics
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USA Annual Population Growth
0.97% 0.96% 0.95%0.88%
0.83%0.73%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011
Source: Brookings Jan 20, 2012
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Growth- Demographics
Between 2010-2020 3 out of every 4 new workers in the USA will be Latino
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Growth- Demographics
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Growth
Last decade US population grew at the lowest rate since the great depression
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Tell Me About YOUR Place
“Human beings reason largely by means of stories, not by mounds of data. Stories are memorable, they
teach.”
Tom Peters, A Passion for Excellence
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The American Dream
“life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement, regardless of social class or circumstances of birth.” American Dream, James Truslow Adams, 1931
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Vision For America Take 20 seconds and think about America
in 2040
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Newsweek Magazine
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Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited
“When I compare our high schools to what I see when I am traveling abroad, I’m terrified for our workforce of tomorrow.”
(Bill Gates)
Source: Members of the Committee, Prepared for the National Academy of Science, 2010
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“Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.”
Henry Ford
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So, what do you need to do to be competitive in the future?
Strong leadership, connected citizens with high social capital
Smart, informed, & nimble Have a plan and capacity to act Good, flexible education, training &
retraining assets Global view & engagement Really good at some things
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Southern Growth’s 40th Anniversary
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Commentaries June Conference