Comparison of Electrical Energy Storage Options · 2012-11-29 · Energy Storage Volume: German...
Transcript of Comparison of Electrical Energy Storage Options · 2012-11-29 · Energy Storage Volume: German...
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Comparison of Electrical Energy
Storage Options
Presented to the Hydrogen Technical Advisory Committee
Washington, DC NREL Offices November 15, 2012
by C. E. (Sandy) Thomas, Ph.D.,
Clean Energy Consultant former-President H2Gen Innovations, Inc. (ret.)
Alexandria, Virginia
www.CleanCarOptions.com
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Intermittent Renewable Electricity Sources Require
Storage at times due to • Limited Electric transmission capability • Insufficient electrical loads • To reduce the environmental impact of
burning fossil fuels (Mainly natural gas) to firm intermittent renewable sources
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Electrical Energy Storage Options include
• Pumped Hydro (not considered here) • Batteries • Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) • Hydrogen storage
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Hydrogen Storage System
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-
electricity to the grid-
H2
-
H2 ElectricityGENERATOR to the customer
NG CT
STORAGE SystemFuel Cell
Wind or PVELECTROLYZER
COMPRESSORH2 &
FUELINGHydrogenEXTERNAL
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NREL Underground H2 Storage Costs
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Source :Darlene Steward, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
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Above Ground H2 Storage Costs
6 H2 Storage Tank Costs.XLS; I85 10/12 /2
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
ASME (2,220 - 8,500 psi)
Composite (3,600 psi)
Propane (266 psi)
DOT (2160 psi)
Used Propane (266 psi)
Kg of Hydrogen Storage
Storage Tank Cost($/kg of useable hydrogen)
Note: composite tank costs/kg reflect multiple tanks, not larger tanks
2 tanks
3 tanks
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Low High Low High Low HighAdv PbA 950 1590 425 475 90% 85%Zn /Br 1450 1750 290 350 60% 60%Fe/Cr 1800 1900 360 380 75% 75%Zn/Air 1440 1700 290 340 75% 75%NaS 3100 3300 520 550 75% 75%CAES-Above 800 900 200 240 90% 90%CAES-below 640 730 1 2 90% 90%Li-Ion 1085 1550 900 1700 92% 87%
$/kW $/kWh Efficiency
Battery Cost Data for 50- to 100- MW storage systems*
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From EPRI: D. Rastler, “Electricity Energy Storage Technology Options” a white paper primer on applications, costs & benefits, Electric Power Research Institute, 1020676 (2010); Li-Ion data are for energy storage for Utility T&D support applications (EPRI estimates for Li-ion for megawatt-scale for ISO fast response and renewables integration are even higher at $4,340/kWh to $6,200/kWh.)
EPRI paper shows that Zn/Air may be
the lowest cost option in the long-run
Although Zn/Air is in the R&D stage and is
not commercially available
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Hydrogen/FC System cost & Efficiency assumptions
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Near- term medium-term Long-termElectrolyzer HHV efficiency* 79.3% 81.7% 87.7%Electrolyzer Capex** $1500 /kW $1000 /kW $380 /kWCompressor efficiency 92% 92% 92%Compressor Capex ($/kg/day) 232 232 232FC HHV efficiency 39.7% 44.8% 49.0%FC capex*** $1000 /kW $750 /kW $500 /kWH2 (above ground) tank capex $807 /kg $760 /kg $700 /kgH2 Dispenser Capex 75,000$ 60,259$ 50,216$ * Norsk Hydro 50.7 kWh/kg = 77.7% HHV eff.; Giner/ProtonOnsite: 88.9%
** NREL Independent Panel Review; (BK-6A1-46676; Sept 2009)
***DOE Targets: $750/kW (2008); $650/kW (2012); $550/kW(2015); $450/kW (2020)HTAC ERWG simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12 -25MW).XLS, WS Assumptions D15;10/12/
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O&M and Replacement cost Assumptions
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Replacement Interval
Fraction Replaced
Annual O&M
(Years) (% of Capex)
Electrolyzer 7 25% 2.18%Compressor 10 100% 2.50%Storage System 0.02%Fuel Cell System 15 30% 2.00%Dispenser System 0.90%
HTAC simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12--25MW).XLS, WS 'O&M' D-13;11/11
Replacement Costs
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Cost of Stored Electricity for one day’s storage
(below-ground hydrogen storage)
10 Wind energy purchased at 5.4 cents/kWh; Natural Gas at $7/MBTU (needed for CAES systems)
ctricity; one-day storage
HTAC simple model EPRI(Rev10-9-12-25MW).XLS, WS 'DashBoard' AM-315;11/11
61.9 43.1
31.5 33.6
20.9 39.2
34.2 32.4
27.4 47.9
56.2
37.0 22.1
45.7 39.7
33.9 31.0
50.3
0 20 40 60 80
H2 Storage -Near-TermH2 Storage- Medium-Term
H2 Storage- Long-TermCAES-AboveCAES-Below
Adv PbAZn /BrFe/Cr
Zn/AirNaS
Li-ion
High
Low
Electricity cost from storage (cents/kWh)
Below-ground storage
Zn/air is representative of a projected lowest cost
Battery storage system
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Cost of Stored Electricity for one day’s storage (Above-ground hydrogen storage)
Natural Gas at $7/MBTU (needed for CAES systems)
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Wind Spectral Data (Peaks at one day; four days & one year)
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Source: Green Rhino Energy http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/renewable/wind/wind_characteristics.php
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Seasonal Wind Energy production in Lake Benton, Minnesota- (104 MW)
13 Source: Y. H. Wan, “Long-term Wind Power Variability”, Report # NREL/TP-5500-53637, January 2012
Winter average energy is 1.64 times average Summer Energy
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Seasonal Wind Energy production in Blue Canyon, Oklahoma- (75 MW)
Winter average energy is 2 times average Summer Energy
Source: Y. H. Wan, “Long-term Wind Power Variability”, Report # NREL/TP-5500-53637, January 2012
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Seasonal Wind Energy production in Storm Lake, Iowa- (113 MW)
Winter average energy is 2.4 times average Summer Energy
Source: Y. H. Wan, “Long-term Wind Power Variability”, Report # NREL/TP-5500-53637, January 2012
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Industrial Natural Gas Prices
16 Story Economics.XLS; Tab 'AEO 2012 Fuel costs'; - 40 10/5 /2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Natural Gas Industrial Prices($/MBTU)
AEO-2012 Ind. NG price projections
Historical NG Industrial prices
Monthly NG Prices
Annual Prices &
AEO projections
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CAES cost depends on Natural Gas cost
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HTAC simple model EPRI (REV 7-5-12-Energy only).XLS, WS 'DashBoard' AH-410;11/11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60
Storage Time (Days)
Cost of stored electricity(cents/kWh)
Zn /Air-Low
CAES-$7/MBTU NG
CAES-$5/MBTU NG
H2-Near-Term
H2-Medium-TermH2-Long-Term
CAES-$4/MBTU NG
CAES-$3/MBTU NG
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Acknowledgments • HTAC Enabling Renewables
Subcommittee members*: • Frank Novachek, Chairman-Xcel Energy • Darlene Steward-NREL • Charlie Freese-GM • Daryl Wilson-Hydrogenics • Rob Friedland- Proton Onsite • Robert Shaw – Arête • Todd Ramsden-NREL • George Sverdrup- NREL (ret.) • Fred Joseck- DOE EERE
18
• Hal Koyama – Idatech • Levi Thompson -U. of Michigan • Jason Marcinkoski- DOE EERE • Peter Bond – Brookhaven Nat’l
Lab • Maurice Kaya – Hawaii Renewable
Energy Development Venture
*While subcommittee members contributed to much of the information is this presentation, they have not endorsed the conclusions presented here, which are the sole responsibility of the author.
Disclaimer: EPRI has neither reviewed nor endorsed the conclusions of this presentation.
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Storage Volume Required
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Energy Storage Volume: German Case Study: Storage Volume required for: Pumped hydro CAES Hydrogen Source: Charlie Freese (GM) : “GM Powertrain Strategy- Electrification of the Vehicle” Hydrogen conference, April 1, 2009
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20 Used with permission
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21 Used with permission
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22 Used with permission
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23 Used with permission
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Storage Potential
• Storage Energy Potential from: • Pumped hydro – 8,000 MWh • CAES- 4,000 MWh • Hydrogen – 600,000 MWh
24
H2 = 75X
H2 = 150X
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Future Advanced SOFC Systems
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Capex projections
• FC capex projections: – $1,000/kW near-term – $750/kW mid-term – $500/kW long-term
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Future SOFC Systems
• SA* Estimate: $700/kW • HTAC subcommittee: $500/kW • SECA** Goal: $400/kW • ERCN*** Estimate: $150/kW
27
*SA = Strategic Analysis (Brian James et al. formerly from DTI); **SECA = Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance; ***ERCN = Energy Research Center of the Netherlands
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Long-Term SOFC Production Cost Estimate*
28
R. Rivera-Tinoco, K. Schoots & B.C.C. van der Zwaan, Learning Curves for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (Energy Research Center of the Netherlands.), Figure 4; available at: http://www.energy.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Learning%20Curves%20for%20Solid%20Oxide%20Fuel%20Cells.pdf *(cost based on SOFC data from HC Starck, Topsoe & Versa)
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Cost to Price Markup
• Labor – 20% of cost – 25% G&A – 40% OH – 15% profit
• Material – 80% of cost – 20% G&A – 15% Profit
29
Labor Markup: 0.2 x 1.25 x1.4 x1.15 =1.1
Material Markup: 0.8 x 1.2 x1.15 =0.4
Total markup = 1.1 +0.4 =1.5 SOFC Price: $100/kW x 1.5 = $150/kW
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Long-Term Electrolyzer Price
• Construction Cost: $213/kW* • Electrolyzer Price: $213 x 1.5 =
$320/kW
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*Genovese, K. Harg, M. Paster, & J. Turner, Current (2009) State-of-the-Art Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Water Electrolysis, NREL/BK-6A1-46676, September 2009
Long-Term Hydrogen Assumptions Base Case SOFC-Low SOFC-HighFC Capex $500 /kW $150 /kW $700 /kWFC HHV Efficiency 49.0% 55.0% 55.0%Electrolyzer HHV Efficiency 87.7% 87.7% 87.7%Electrolyzer Capex $380 /kW $320 /kW $320 /kW
HTAC simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12 -25MW).XLS, WS Assumptions D47;11/11
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Additional Revenue to Storage system operator
(CHHP) • Hydrogen Fuel (1530 kg/day* sold at a same
price per mile as gasoline at $3.81/gallon untaxed with 50/50 split of HEVs and ICVs)
• Displacement of natural gas heating @ $6.30/MBTU using SOFC waste heat (30% heat recovery)
[Total efficiency = 30% + 55% = 85%]
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* Assumes 13,000 miles/yr; 68.3 miles/kg; 300 cars/day; & 8 days average time between fill-ups.
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Long-Term Stored Electricity Prices to Yield 10% ROI
(for one day’s storage time)
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HTAC simple modelEPRI (Rev 10-9-12-25 MW).XLS, WS H2 Value T-46;11/11
25.0
21.1
16.2
12.4
22.8
18.9
14.1
10.2
21.7
17.8
13.0
9.1
19.0
15.1
10.2
6.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
No Extra Revenue NG heating revenueonly
H2 Revenue only H2 & NG revenue
SA Estimate = $700/kW
Long-Term H2=$500/kW
SECA Goal=$400/kW
ERCN=$150/kW
Stored Electricity Costs for Long-Term Hydrogen Cases (cents/kWh)-ONE DAY'S STORAGE
SA = Strategic Analysis (Brian James et al. formerly from DTI); SECA = Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance; ERCN = Energy Research Center of the Netherlands
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Long-Term Stored Electricity Prices to Yield 10% ROI
(for six month’s storage time)
33 HTAC simple modelEPRI (Rev 10-9-12-25 MW).XLS, WS H2 Value AA-46;11/11
27.1
23.2
18.2
14.3
24.9
21.0
16.0
12.2
23.8
20.0
14.9
11.1
21.1
17.2
12.2
8.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
No Extra Revenue NG heatingrevenue only
H2 Revenue only H2 & NG revenue
SA Estimate = $700/kW
Long-Term H2=$500/kW
SECA Goal=$400/kW
ERCN=$150/kW
Stored Electricity Costs for Long-Term Hydrogen Cases (cents/kWh)-SIX MONTH'S STORAGE
SA = Strategic Analysis (Brian James et al. formerly from DTI); SECA = Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance; ERCN = Energy Research Center of the Netherlands
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Electricity Costs for SIX MONTH’S (SEASONAL) STORAGE
(without the $150/kW option)
34
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Summary of stored Electricity Prices for one day’s storage
35 SOFC systems include H2 Revenue and NG Heating credits; Low cost estimates only for battery & CAES systems
HTAC simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12-25MW).XLS, WS 'Dashboard' AW-323;3/19/2
61.9 c/kWh43.1 c/kWh
31.5 c/kWh12.4 c/kWh
10.189346779.1 c/kWh
33.6 c/kWh20.9 c/kWh
39.7 c/kWh34.8 c/kWh
33.0 c/kWh27.9 c/kWh
48.7 c/kWh
0 20 40 60 80
H2 Storage -Near-TermH2 Storage- Medium-Term
H2 Storage- Long-TermH2 -Long-Term (SA=$700/kW)+ H2 Rev
H2 Storage-Long-Term + H2 RevH2 - Long-term(SECA= $400/kW)+H2Rev
CAES-AboveCAES-Below
Adv PbAZn /BrFe/Cr
Zn/AirNaS
One Day Storage
Stored Electricity Price (cents/kWh)
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HTAC simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12-25MW).XLS, WS 'Dashboard' BC-323;3/19/2
63.0 c/kWh44.1 c/kWh32.5 c/kWh
11.0 c/kWh10.1893467713.2 c/kWh
847.5 c/kWh185.2 c/kWh
803.2 c/kWh796.1 c/kWh
642.5 c/kWh
0 200 400 600 800 1000
H2 Storage -Near-TermH2 Storage- Medium-Term
H2 Storage- Long-TermH2 -Long-Term (SA=$700/kW)+…
H2 Storage-Long-Term + H2 RevH2 - Long-term(SECA=…
CAES-AboveCAES-Below
Adv PbAZn /BrFe/Cr
Zn/AirNaS
Two Months Storage
Stored Electricity Price
36
Summary of stored Electricity Prices for Two Month’s underground storage
SOFC systems include H2 Revenue and NG Heating credits
Even Near-term hydrogen storage
is 3 times less expensive than
underground CAES
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37
Summary of stored Electricity Prices for Six Month’s (Seasonal) underground storage
SOFC systems include H2 Revenue and NG Heating credits
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Conclusions
• Energy Storage may be needed to enable significant renewable electricity market penetration
• Storage will be required to avoid the negative environmental impact* of natural gas (or Coal) “firming” of intermittent renewables
38
*Even natural gas turbines used to “firm” intermittent renewables may increase greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution compared to running those turbines 100% of the time without any renewables.
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Conclusions (cont.) • Hydrogen Storage is economic for one-
day storage at 9.1 to 12.4 cents/kWh. • For two month’s storage, even near-term
hydrogen storage is 3 times less expensive than the next lowest option: CAES
• For Seasonal (6-months) storage, hydrogen is the only viable option at 11.1 to 14.3 cents/kWh – [no other option is less than $1/kWh]
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Thank You • Contact Information:
C.E. (Sandy) Thomas, former-President (ret.) H2Gen Innovations, Inc. Alexandria, Virginia 22304 703-507/8149 [email protected] – Simulation details at: – http://www.cleancaroptions.com
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Back-Up Slides
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Financial Assumptions
• Storage system owner purchases wind energy at 5.4 cents/kWh (with 10% free to represent stranded wind)
• Owner charges enough for peak electricity to make a 10% real, after-tax ROI.
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Other Financial Assumptions
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Inflation rate 1.9%Marginal income tax rate 38.9%Real, after-tax Rate of return required 10%Depreciation schedule Declining balanceAnnual capital recovery factor 11.79%Taxes & Insurance 2%
HTAC simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12--25MW).XLS, WS 'Dashboard (Flow Diagram) D-95;11/11
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Wind + NG turbine worse than 100% NG turbine? • Wind + NG turbine balancing plant
increases: – GHGs – NOx & – SOx – (Due to part-power operation of NG
turbine)
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See, for example, Willem Post, “Wind energy does little to reduce GHG emissions,” available at http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/64492/wind-energy-reduces-co2-emissions-few-percent
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Simple-cycle NG Turbine efficiency
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New Motivation to curb greenhouse gases
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ARCTIC ICE Extent
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Previous Low Ice extent: 2007
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New Lowest Arctic Ice Exent; Sept 16, 2012:
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Graph of Arctic Ice Extent
49 Source: National snow & ice data center; http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
21-year average:
1979-2000
2005
2007
2012
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Global Coal Consumption Rising Fast
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Average hourly wind power at Trent Mesa, Texas -150 MW peak
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Longer-Term (Below-Ground) Storage
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HTAC simple model EPRI (Rev 10-9-12 - 25MW.XLS, WS 'DashBoard' AK-355;11/11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5 10 15 20
Li-Ion-LowZn / air -HiZn / Air-LowH2 near-termCAES-Hi-$7/MBTUCAES-Low-$7/MBTUH2 Med-termH2 long-term
Storage Time (Days)
Cost of stored electricity (cents/kWh)
Natural Gas = $7/MBTU