Comparative Economic Development · 2.1 Defining the Developing World •World Bank Scheme- ranks...
Transcript of Comparative Economic Development · 2.1 Defining the Developing World •World Bank Scheme- ranks...
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Chapter 2
Comparative
Economic
Development
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Common Characteristics of
developing (poor) countries
1. Lower levels of living and productivity
2. Lower levels of human capital
3. Higher levels of inequality and absolute poverty
4. Higher population growth rates
5. Greater social fractionalization
6. Larger rural population- rapid migration to cities
7. Lower levels of industrialization and manufactured exports
8. Adverse geography
9. Underdeveloped financial and other markets
10. Colonial legacies (?) - poor institutions etc.
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Defining the Developing World
• World Bank Scheme – Atlas Method:
• Ranks countries on GNI/capita ($US at exchange rates)
– LIC: <$875
– LMC: $876 -$3,465
– UMC: $3,466 - $10,725
– High Income: >$10,725
– Figures are for 2005; US = $43,650
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2.1 Defining the Developing World
• World Bank Scheme- ranks countries on
GNP/capita
– LIC, LMC, UMC, OECD (see Table 2.1 and
Figure 2.1)
• Calculated based on exchange rates, e.g.
– China’s GNP/capita = RMB21,000/capita
– Exchange Rate: 7 RMB = $ 1
– => China’s GNP/capita = $3,000/capita
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Figure 2.2 Income Per Capita in Selected Countries
(2008)
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Alternatively, convert to common currency using
Purchasing Power Parity
• PPP method instead of exchange rates as
conversion factors (see Figure 2.2)
• PPP method better represents what people
can actually buy with their income
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Table 2.2 A Comparison of Per Capita GNI, 2008
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Why do these methods differ?
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Why do these methods differ?
• Think:
– What is the “Law of One Price?”
– Where/when does it apply/not apply?
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Why do these methods differ?
• Think:
– What is the “Law of One Price?”
– Where/when does it apply/not apply?
• Answer:
– Wages are lower in DCs
– Services are both non-traded AND labor
intensive
– Ergo: Services cost less in DCs
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UN Human Development Index
• HDI as a holistic measure of living levels
– 1/3*Log (GDP/capita at PPP)
– 1/3*Life Expectancy Index
– 1/3*(2/3*Adult Literacy+1/3*Enrollment Index)
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Figure 2.5 Under-5 Mortality Rates,
1990 and 2005
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Table 2.7 Primary School Enrollment
and Pupil-Teacher Ratios
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Figure 2.6 Correlation between Under-
5 Mortality and Mother’s Education
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Correlations
• Components of HDI are highly correlated
with each other
• “Best” single measure of development is
GNI/capita at PPP????
– www.gapminder.org
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UN Human Development Index
• HDI as a holistic measure of living levels
– 1/3*Log (GDP/capita at PPP)
– 1/3*Life Expectancy Index
– 1/3*(2/3*Adult Literacy+1/3*Enrollment Index)
• HDI varies across countries
– HDI also varies for groups within countries
– HDI also varies by region in a country
– HDI also reflects rural-urban differences
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Figure 2.3 Human Development
Disparities within Selected Countries
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Figure 2.3 Human Development Disparities
within Selected Countries (continued)
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10 Characteristics of the Developing
World: Diversity within Commonality
1. Lower levels of living and productivity
2. Lower levels of human capital (health, education,
skills)
3. Higher Levels of Inequality and Absolute Poverty
Absolute Poverty
World Poverty
4. Higher Population Growth Rates
– Crude Birth rates
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Figure 2.7 People Living in Poverty,
1981-2002
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Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin
(2009) NBER 15433
• Go to
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Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin
(2009) NBER 15433
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Figure 2.7 Number of People Living in Poverty by
Region, 1981–2005
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Changing Poverty Rates
Depend on …
• Percentage of Population versus Absolute
Numbers
• Region: Tremendous progress in East Asia,
esp. China. Slower progress -- if any – in
other regions.
• Why????
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10 Characteristics of the Developing
World: Diversity within Commonality
5. Greater Social Fractionalization
6. larger Rural Populations but Rapid Rural-to-
Urban Migration
7. Lower levels of Industrialization and
Manufactured Exports
8. Adverse Geography
– Resource endowments
– Landlocked
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Urban and Farm Populations: USA
0
20
40
60
80
Perc
ent o
f Pop
ulat
ion
1790 1840 1890 1940 1990
New Old Farm
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Income and Urbanization
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000G
DP
/Cap
ita (L
og S
cale
)
0 20 40 60 80 100Urbanization (%)WDI (2003)
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Income and Urban: China
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000G
DP
/Cap
ita (2
000)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Urban Population (%)
SHA
BEI
TIA
ZHE
JSUFUJ GDNLIA
SDNHEI
HUBHEB XIN JILHAIMONHUNHEN QINANH SAXJIASIC NINSAAYUNGXITIB
GANGUI
Chen (2002)
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Urban-Rural Income Ratio: China
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998Chen (2002)
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Income and Agricultural
Employment
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
GDP/
Capi
ta (L
og S
cale
)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Agricultural Employment (% of Total)WDI (2003)
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10 Characteristics of the Developing
World: Diversity within Commonality
• 9. Underdeveloped Financial and Other
markets
– Imperfect markets
• Labor, goods, financial
• Importance of clan or family relationships
– Incomplete information
• Prices: Cell phones
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10 Characteristics of the Developing
World: Diversity within Commonality
• 10a. Institutions
– Legal: Secure property rights; enforceable contracts
– Government:
• Civil War
• Dictatorship/Oligarchy: Responsive to elites vs.
• Democracy: Responsive to broader population
• Bureaucracy: Unresponsive
– Central Planning vs. Market Oriented
• East vs. West Germany; North vs. South Korea
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10 Characteristics of the Developing
World: Diversity within Commonality
• 10b. Institutions – Colonial Legacy?
– Extractors of Wealth vs. Creators of Wealth
• Climate: Inhospitable => Extractors
• Gold, oil, diamonds, etc. => Extractors
– “Post-colonial elites in many developing countries took
over the exploitive role formerly played by the colonial
powers.” (p. 68)
• But: Never colonized countries also face
problems: Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Liberia, Myanmar
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Convergence?
• Are world incomes becoming more equal?
• Specifically, are DCs “catching up” with rich
countries?
• More specific yet: Is the growth rate of
income per capita negatively related to the
level of income per capita?
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Convergence: US State Incomes Barro and Sala-I-Martin (1992)
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2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%G
row
th R
ate
of In
com
e pe
r Cap
ita
$6,000 $10,000 $14,000Per Capita Income (1959)
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FL
GA
ID
IL
IN
IAKS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MOMT
NE
NV
NH
NJNM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
Convergence: 1959-79
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Figure 2.8 Convergence among OECD
Countries but Divergence in the World
as a Whole
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Figure 2.9 Per Capita GDP Growth in
125 Developing Countries, 1995-2005
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Figure 2.10 Growth Convergence and
Absolute Income Convergence
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Nature and Role of Economic
Institutions
• Institutions provide “rules of the game” of economic life
• Provide underpinning of a market economy
• Include property rights; contract enforcement
• Can work for improving coordination,
• Restricting coercive, fraudulent and anti-competitive behavior
• Providing access to opportunities for the broad population-
• Constraining the power of elites, and managing conflict
• Provision of social insurance
• Provision of predictable macroeconomic stability
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Role of Institutions
• Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson’s
“reversal of fortune” and extractive
institutions
• Bannerjee and Iyer’s , “property rights
institutions”. Landlords versus cultivators
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Case Study: Pakistan
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Case Study: Bangladesh
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Concepts for Review
• Absolute poverty
• Brain drain
• Crude birthrate
• Convergence
• Death rate
• Dependency burden
• Developed world
• Economic Institutions
• Foreign exchange
• Gross domestic product (GDP)
• Gross national product
(GNP)
• Human Development
Index (HDI)
• Imperfect markets
• Income gap
• Income inequality
• Incomplete information
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Concepts for Review (cont’d)
• Infant mortality rate
• International poverty
line
• Labor productivity
• Least developed
countries (LLDCs)
• Levels of living
• Low income countries
(LICs)
• Malnutrition
• Middle-income
countries (MICs)
• Mixed economic
systems
• Newly industrialized
countries (NICs)
• Physical resources
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Concepts for Review (cont’d)
• Primary industrial
sector
• Production function
• Purchasing power
equivalent
• Purchasing power
parity (PPP)
• Resource endowment
• Secondary industrial
sector
• Tertiary industrial
sector
• World Bank