Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified,...

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Company update December 2018

Transcript of Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified,...

Page 1: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Company update

December 2018

Page 2: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

1

Contents

• HELLENIC PETROLEUM Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Downstream Oil Industry Update & Market Developments

• 3Q18 Results

• Appendix

Page 3: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

(1) Includes other activities (exploration and production) which was -€7m in 2017, -€6m in 2016 and -€2m in 2015.

(2) Includes 35% share of Adj. Net Income of DEPA Group adjusted for one-off items. As per ‘Share of profit of investments in associates and JVs’ as reported in financial

statements.

Petrochemicals 12%

Marketing13%

Refining, Supply & Trading

74%

Montenegro

Serbia

Bulgaria

FYROM

Greece

Cyprus

Elefsina

Aspropyrgos

Thessaloniki

OKTA

Refinery

Marketing

Storage terminal

Company overview

Key financials FY17

€834m(1)

Refining, Supply & Trading

Marketing

3 refineries, 65% Greek market share (by capacity):

- Elefsina (100kbp/d, NCI 12.0)

- Aspropyrgos (148kbp/d, NCI 9.7)

- Thessaloniki (93kbp/d, NCI 5.8)

15 MTmn of production in 2017

50-60% of sales exported

2015 2016 2017

Refining, Supply & Trading 561 536 639

Marketing 107 101 107

Petrochemicals 93 100 95

Other(1) -2 -6 -7

Total 758 731 834

Share of Adj. Net Income of

associates(2) 22 29 31

Domestic market

- > 30% market share across retail, commercial, aviation and bunkering

- Total sales volume c.4.1MTmn

- 1,760 service stations through marketing subsidiary (EKO and BP brand)

International market

- 302 service stations across Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria and FYROM

- Total sales volume c.1.1MTmn

Petrochemicals

240kt of polypropylene (PP) capacity vertically integrated with ELPE’s

refineries

>50% of domestic petrochemicals market share

70% of sales are exports

Sales €7,995m

Adj. EBITDA €834m

Net Debt €1,800m

Net Debt /

Adj. EBITDA2.2x

Paneuropean Oil

and Industrial

Holdings S.A.

Hellenic Republic

Asset Development

Fund

Free Float

HELLENIC PETROLEUM ownership structure

45.5% 35.5% 19.0%

FY17 Adj. EBITDA

Key Business Areas Operational Footprint

Adj. EBITDA Breakdown (€m)

2

Page 4: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Key financials

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items3

€ million, IFRS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M18

Sales Volume (MT’000) - Refining 14.502 12,528 12.796 12.696 13.538 14.258 15.618 16.069 12.354

Net Sales 8,477 9,308 10.469 9.674 9.478 7.303 6.680 7.995 7.341

Segmental EBITDA

- Refining, Supply & Trading 338 259 345 57 253 561 536 639 423

- Petrochemicals 50 44 47 57 81 93 100 95 78

- Marketing 114 66 53 68 90 107 101 107 81

- Other (incl. E&P) -28 -6 0 -5 -7 -2 -6 -7 -8

Adjusted EBITDA * 474 363 444 178 417 758 731 834 574

Adjusted associates’ share of profit 30 67 69 57 28 22 29 31 19

Adjusted Net Income * 213 140 229 -120 2 268 265 372 239

Capital Employed 4,191 4,217 4,350 3.905 2.870 2.913 3.903 4.173 4.421

Net Debt 1,659 1,687 1,855 1.689 1.140 1.122 1.759 1.800 1.773

Capital Expenditure (incl. refinery

upgrades) 709 675 521 112 136 165 126 209 96

Income Statement

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow

Page 5: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Refining, Supply & Trading economicsIntegrated value chain management yields improved returns vs Platt’s reference pricing and

increases earnings stability

Trading

(Platt’s + sales premia)

Refining

(Med benchmark + overperformance)

Domestic market

7.0 MT

Exports, Intra-Group & 3rd parties

5.0 MT

ELPE

Refining System

16 MT

NCI: 9.3

89%

11%

High sulphur

Low sulphur

12%

12%

23%

53%

Other

Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Middle Distillates

Marketing

(Cost +)

Domestic

4.0MT

International

1.8MT

Petchems

(Benchmark Pricing plus premia)

Domestic and international

Markets (PP + BOPP – 240kt)

4

Platt’s

Aviation & Bunkering

2.5 MT

1.5 MT

8.5 MT

Page 6: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

(1) Does not include OKTA sales which is mainly wholesale.

Source: Company information.

Montenegro

Serbia

Bulgaria

Greece

FYROM

Turkey

40

No. of petrol stations (end 2017)

54

88

1,760

95

Cyprus

Elefsina

Aspropyrgos

Thessaloniki

25

5

Fuels MarketingLeading domestic market position and regional footprint increasing vertical integration

4.637

4.070

3.361

2.971 3.052

3.494 3.538

4.058

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sales – Greek subsidiaries (‘000MT)

436 433 404 379 369 388 390 413

220 222 336 367 375447 401 345

152 150117 115 126

124116 147

243 237 215 211 209219

223 211

1.051 1.042 1.072 1.072 1.0791.178

1.129 1.116

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cyprus Bulgaria Serbia Montenegro

Sales – International marketing subsidiaries(1) (‘000MT)

€107m

International56%

Domestic 44%

2017 Adj. EBITDA

+37%

OKTA

Page 7: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

370

269

389

105

Propane Propylene Polypropylene BOPP

PetrochemicalsOperations centered on utilising refining assets for higher value extraction; trading geared to

export markets

6

(1) as of FY17.

Source: Platts, Company information.

Overview

Production and marketing of Polypropylene (PP), BOPP Film, polymers and solvents through the further processing of refinery production

Vertical integration

85-90% of total production integrated using

propylene produced at Aspropyrgos

Best-in-class Polypropylene production technology

Lyondell Basell’s Spheripol technology

Competitive advantages

Margin contribution by product (€/T)(1)

Geographical diversification

>70% of sales exported to Turkey, Italy, Iberia and Eastern Med, used as raw materials in a

number of applications in manufacturing and other industries

Strong domestic market share

Domestic market share in petchems > 50% in all products, produced or traded

Low exposure to refining margins

PP margins largely unrelated to refining margins

Domestic and

International market

Aspropyrgos

splitter

Thessaloniki

PP plant (240 kt)

PPPropane Propylene

BOPPBOPP film

plant (26 kt)

c.90%

c.10%

85%

Imports 15%

Petrochemicals value chain

Page 8: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Exploration & ProductionExploration activity focused on Greece

7

Patraikos Gulf (offshore) - HELLENIC PETROLEUM

W. Patraikos 50% (operator), Edison International S.p.A

50%

• Main geological target confirmed from 3D seismic.

Commitment for drilling one well during 2nd phase (Apr

2018 – Apr 2020)

Sea of Thrace Concession (offshore) - HELLENIC

PETROLEUM 25%, Calfrac Well Services 75%

• Prospective area surrounding the Prinos oilfield and

Kavala gas field

NW Peloponnese and Arta-Preveza Blocks (onshore) – HELLENIC PETROLEUM 100%

Block 2 offshore W. Greece - Total 50% (operator), HELLENIC PETROLEUM 25% and Edison

International

• Early exploration works with environmental and geological studies in progress

Offshore W. Greece

• HELPE submitted bids for Blocks 1 and 10; evaluation process ongoing for block 1, Lease Agreement finalised for block

10 and offshore Ionian block - JV with Repsol (50% - operator)

West and SW Crete

• JV of Total (40% - operator), ExxonMobil (40%) and HELPE finalised Lease Agreement for two offshore areas

West and SW of Crete.

Page 9: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Power: second largest IPP in Greece; development of a renewable energy portfolio

Thisvi 420MW CCGT power plant

Consolidated as Associate

• Elpedison BV, is a 50/50 JV between HELLENIC

PETROLEUM and Edison, Italy’s 2nd largest electricity

producer and gas distributor (EdF Group)

– Owns 76% of 810MW of installed CCGT capacity:

a 390MW plant in Thessaloniki and a 420MW in

Thisvi

– Increasing power trading & marketing, considering

credit exposure; growing independent supplier

with 3.5% market share

• Energy market in Greece under restructuring; new

regulatory framework (EU Target Model) expected in

2019

• Renewables portfolio target > 200MW (wind, PV,

biomass), with 26MW in operation

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Page 10: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Gas: 35% participation in DEPA, Greece’s incumbent gas company

DEPA

– Long-term contracts on pipe gas (Russian & Azeri) and capacity

rights on two in-bound interconnecting pipelines

– Long-term contracts with power generators, eligible industrial

customers and existing EPAs

– Restructuring of retail (EPA) and distribution (EDAs) activities in

process; in 2018 sold 51% in EPA Thassalonikis to ENI and

acquired 49% of EPA and EDA Attikis from Shell

– International pipelines: Participation in Greece-Bulgaria

Interconnector

DESFA (RAB)

– Greece’s gas grid and LNG import terminal owner and operator

– SPA for DESFA’s 66% stake was signed between HRADF, ELPE

and a consortium comprising of Snam S.p.A., Enagás

Internacional S.L.U. and Fluxys S.A., for a total cash consideration

of €535m (ELPE share €284m)

– Clearance from DG Comp; spin-off of DESFA from DEPA and

certification from regulator in progress; last steps for closing

DEPA snapshot financials (€m)2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017

EBITDA 166 211 288 287 196 126 125 227 237

Net Income 61 91 191 197 147 83 66 131 133

* 2012 Adjusted for settlement with PPC; 2015 adjusted for settlement with BOTAS; 2016

adjusted from previous year bad debt provisions and one-off items,

Natural gas transmission network

DEPA Volumes 2011-2017 (bcm)

Consolidated as Associate

4.2

20162011 2014

3.0

4.0 4.1

2012 2015 20172010

3.3

2013

3.6

2009

4.3

3.8

3.0

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Page 11: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Strategy UpdateUtilise strong refining and logistics asset base to consolidate position; cash flow for balance sheet

de-risking

1

2

5

Rebalance market position and

de-risk business model

Strengthen financial position

3Continue competitiveness

improvement

4 Manage business portfolio and

develop selective growth areas

Integrate and realise benefit of

investments

• Vertical integration

• Increased exports (50%)

• Operating KPIs / Solomon benchmarks

• Realise additional transformation

opportunities

• Gas & Power

• E&P opportunities in Greece

• Develop renewables portfolio

• Capture positive refining cycles

• EBITDA €700-800m

STRATEGY TARGETS

• Business model and balance sheet de-

risking

• Deleverage and cost of funding reduction

10

Page 12: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

CREDIT FACILITIES - LIQUIDITYFinance costs 13% lower in 9M18; DESFA disposal proceeds to further accelerate deleveraging

process

Gross Debt Sourcing (%)

11

Committed Facilities Maturity Profile (€m)

Finance Costs (€m)

40%

27%

27%

6%

Banks (committed) Banks (billaterals)

Debt Capital Markets EIB

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Debt Capital Markets Banks EIB

Repaid on 25 Oct

128

112

9M17 9M18

-13%

Page 13: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

12

Dividend Policy Strong profitability, cash flows, lower interest costs and working capital normalization

support dividend increase

EPS and DPS 2016-2018 (€/share)

0,87

1,22

0,78

1,08

1,26

1,18

0,2

0,4

0,25

2016 2017 2018 9M

Clean EPS Reported EPS DPS

• 2018 interim dividend at €0.25/share

• Extraordinary dividend form part of DESFA sale proceeds to be considered

Page 14: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

CapexIncreased operational cash flows enabled implementation of selective opportunities to improve

competiveness and grow; heavier refining maintenance capex in 2017; plans for 2018-19 include

growth projects

13

614

709675

521

112136

165

126

2009 20122010 2011 201520142013 2016 2017 2018

(Plan)

2019

(Plan)

209175 175

Capex evolution 2009 - 2018 (€m)

• 2017 capex mainly focused on refining

maintenance and compliance, as well

as targeted growth initiatives

• FY18-19 planned capex at €175m

subject to growth project opportunities

Growth &

Competitiveness

Maintenance &

Compliance

Page 15: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Contents

• HELLENIC PETROLEUM Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Downstream Oil Industry Update & Market Developments

• 3Q18 Results

• Appendix

14

Page 16: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Consistent benchmark overperformance**

High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assetsDiversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output and

wholesale margin capacity support over-performance margin

Group refinery footprint and operating model

15

Aspropyrgos

148kbpd

93kbpd

Elefsina100kbpd

Naphtha for

reforming

SRAR* & VGO*

for upgrading

Naphtha for

reforming

Thessaloniki

SRAR* for

upgrading

* SRAR (Straight Run Atmospheric Residue) and VGO (Vacuum Gas Oil) are intermediate products.

** System benchmark calculated using actual crude feed weights. Includes wholesale trading premia and propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems.

HC

FCCHC

FXC

CCR

VDU

NCI: 5.9

NCI: 12.0NCI: 9.7

61%

39%

2017

Sour Sweet

Urals9%

Iraq22%

CPC16%

Libya9%

Egypt4%

Iran22%

S. Arabia

5%

Other crude & feedstock13%

16%

48%

22%

5%9%

2017FO Middle Distillates

Gasoline LPG

Naphta/Other

Crude slate FY17 (%) Product yield FY17 (%)

10,2

8,6 8,3

10,9 10,6 10,6 10,3

10,1

9,910,6

12,1

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18ELPE system benchmark (on feed) ELPE realised margin**

Page 17: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Assets strategically located for exports in diesel-short Med region

complementing a leading domestic business

16

Exports sales (MT ‘000)

2.377

4.501

5.518

6.5896.941

8.6448.384

7.075

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M18

% of

total

sales

21% 36% 44% 49% 49% 56% 52%

Domestic market shares

Refining

(16 MTmn of capacity)

Marketing

(4.1 MTmn of sales)

HELLENIC PETROLEUM

60% - 65%

Other

HELLENIC PETROLEUM

>30%

Other

57%

Page 18: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

95

378

254

105

580

834

71%

834

Retail Petrochemicals Wholesalesupply,

logistics andoverperformance

Non-refiningmargin derived

EBITDA

Refining EBITDAat $5/bbl

2017 Adj.EBITDA

Diversified business model limits exposure to cyclical refining margins

2017 Adj. EBITDA breakdown (€m)

17

Source: Company information.

Note: The above is not intended to be representative of future performance.

No / low dependency on gross refining margin

Key industry macro drivers for Group

EBITDA €m

• Illustrative change in EBITDA for a given change in either benchmark

margin or exchange rate

• Based on normal operations throughput of 110-120mmbbl (LTM) and

LTM price environment

-$1.0/bbl

-10c. FX EUR/USD (70)

(100)

70

100 +$1.0/bbl

+10c. FX EUR/USD

Page 19: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Cash Flow ProfilePost upgrade cashflows support balance sheet improvement and increased returns with reduced

risk profile

Free cash flow – pro forma at mid-cycle economics excl. working capital movements (€m)

EBITDA (pro-

forma run rate)

Capex Interest Tax Cash flow for

deleverage

and distribution

Benchmark margins & EUR/USD driven

(100-200)

(100-150)

200-400

600-850

(60-140)

18

Page 20: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Contents

• HELLENIC PETROLEUM Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Downstream Oil Industry Update & Market developments

• 3Q18 Results

• Appendix

19

Page 21: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Med regional crude supplyImproved supply of sour crude grades leads to favourable crude spreads for Med refiners

20

Crude exports / supply to Med* (kbpd)

B-U spread ($/bbl)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CPC Siberian Light Kirkuk Urals (Novo) BTC Basrah (RHS)

(*) Total exports for Bashra; Med loadings for other grades

Page 22: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

European demand growth for refined productsStrong demand growth in 2015-17 especially for light-ends, with middle distillates recovering in

2017-18; European consumption also improved

21

Global demand growth per product (%)

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gasoline Distillate Others

Source: Woodmac estimates as of Sep 2017

European fuel demand (mbpd)

0

5

10

15 14.4

2012 2013 20172014 2015 2016

14.1 13.9 13.9 14.214.7

-3% -2% -1% +2%Growth +2% +2%

Page 23: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4QTD

FCC

Hydrocracking

Recent Industry developmentsImprovement in European refining environment mainly on supply dynamics; IMO / MARPOL

bunkering regulation key next milestone for refining industry

Med complex margins - $/bbl

Med FCC margins:

2.4

$/bbl

3.3 6.4

22(*) Data updated as of 02/03/2018

5.0

• 2018 margins impacted by supply developments (US production, Iran sanctions snapback) and

demand growth evolution, as well as diesel recovery

• Key drivers for Med margins in 2019:

– Regional and global supply trends

– Global refinery capacity evolution / utilisation

– Demand growth

– IMO / MARPOL implementation

5.9 5.1

Page 24: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Contents

• HELLENIC PETROLEUM Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Downstream Oil Industry Update & Market developments

• 3Q18 Results

• Appendix

23

Page 25: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

3Q18 KEY HIGHLIGHTS: Strong results on improved operational performance

24

• 3Q18 Adj. EBITDA at €237m (+15%), Adj. Net Income at €111m (+25%)

- Benchmark refining margins improved q-o-q, however lower than record 3Q17 levels

- Higher production (+19%) led to increased sales (+8%), as 3Q17 utilisation levels were affected by

Elefsina shutdown

- Crude supply and processing optimization drives historical high over-performance vs benchmarks

• IFRS Reported EBITDA €258m (+12%), IFRS Reported Net Income at €135m (+28%)

- Crude oil price increase continues to affect reported results, with inventory effect of €42m in 3Q18

and €191m in 9M18

- Contribution from Associates at similar levels; DESFA transaction impact not reflected

- Further reduction of financial expenses y-o-y by 11%

- 9M18 NI at €360m (+32%), with EPS at €1.18

• Cashflow & Balance sheet

- 3Q18 operating cashflow (Adj. EBITDA – Capex) at €203m, the highest since 1Q17

- Further balance sheet deleveraging; Net Debt at €1.8bn, with gearing at 40%, the lowest in the last

2.5 years

• Dividend

- BoD approved an interim dividend of €0.25/share payable in December

Page 26: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

3Q18 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

25

Key recent developments

• HRADF and POIH sale of 50.1% of ELPE share capital in progress, with the two qualified bidders in

advanced due diligence process

• DESFA spinoff in progress; likely transaction closing in 4Q18

– Sale proceeds to be applied mainly for debt reduction; extraordinary distribution under consideration

• Acquisition of remaining 49% of EPA and EDA Attikis from Attiki Gas (subsidiary of Shell Gas BV), at the

final competition authorities approval stage

• Completed negotiations for the two offshore areas in West and SW of Crete, as part of JV between

TOTAL (40% - operator), Exxon (40%) and ELPE (20%), as well as the offshore area of Kyparissiakos

(ELPE - 100%), expecting formal signing and parliamentary approval

Page 27: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

FY LTM € million, IFRS 3Q 9M

2017 9M 2017 2018 Δ% 2017 2018 Δ%

Income Statement

16,069 16,432 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 3,787 4,087 8% 11,991 12,354 3%

5,165 4,954 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 1,479 1,478 0% 3,924 3,714 -5%

7,995 9,447 Net Sales 1,823 2,674 47% 5,888 7,341 25%

Segmental EBITDA

639 553 - Refining, Supply & Trading 138 173 25% 509 423 -17%

95 98 - Petrochemicals 24 25 5% 75 78 4%

107 102 - Marketing 46 42 -8% 85 81 -5%

-7 -9 - Other -2 -2 -46% -6 -8 -34%

834 744 Adjusted EBITDA * 206 237 15% 663 574 -14%

31 15 Share of operating profit of associates ** 4 4 -10% 35 19 -46%

-165 -148 Finance costs - net -40 -36 11% -128 -112 13%

372 298 Adjusted Net Income * 89 111 25% 313 239 -23%

851 974 IFRS Reported EBITDA 230 258 12% 608 731 20%

384 471 IFRS Reported Net Income 106 135 28% 273 360 32%

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow

4,173 Capital Employed 4,142 4,421 7%

1,800 Net Debt 1,811 1,773 -2%

43% Net Debt / Capital Employed 44% 40% -

209 167 Capital Expenditure 62 34 -45% 138 96 -30%

3Q18 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items

(**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group adjusted for one-off items 26

IFRS Net Income (€m)

Adj. EBITDA (€m)

Refining sales volumes (m MT)

3,84,1

3Q17 3Q18

+8%

206237

3Q17 3Q18

+15%

106

129

3Q183Q17

+22%

Page 28: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENTCrude oil prices increased further slightly in 3Q18, +46% yoy

27

ICE Brent ($/bb) and EUR/USD*

Crude differentials ($/bbl)

(*) Quarterly averages

• Crude oil prices averaged $76/bbl, flat q-o-q,

on geopolitical developments

• Further strengthening of USD vs EUR q-o-q;

flat vs LY

• Brent – WTI spread remains wide, averaging

$6.3/bbl, on increasing US production

• B-U spread tighter on reduced sour crude

supply following US sanctions on Iran

52

62

67

75 76

1,17 1,18

1,231,19

1,16

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1,40

1,50

1,60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

Brent ($/bbl) EURUSD

4,0

6,1

4,3

7,1

6,3

0,70,5

1,7 1,71,0

3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

Brent-WTI Brent - Urals

Page 29: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Product Cracks* ($/bbl)

Hydrocracking & FXK

INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENTWeaker product cracks, drive benchmark refining margins lower y-o-y; stronger diesel supports

hydrocracking / coking benchmarks

28

Med benchmark margins** ($/bbl)

(*) Brent based.

(**) Revised benchmark margins set post-upgrades and secondary feedstock pricing adjustment

FCC

4Q172016

5.4

2015 1Q17 1Q18

5.9

3Q17 20172Q17 2Q18 3Q18

6.5

5.0

6.15.9

7.1

4.6 4.8

5.7

-20%

4Q172015 3Q172016 1Q17 2Q17

5.0

2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

6.5

5.14.4

5.95.3 5.2

5.75.3 5.6

-5%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

$/bbl

Page 30: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

-2

0

138

173

24

254

64

5

46

41

37

4

3Q17 BenchmarkRefining Margins

FX CO2 emissionsprovisions

Asset utilisation /Ops + Supplyoptimisation

Others 3Q18

CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 3Q 2018Normalised production, high utilisation and strong operational performance in refining

outweigh weaker benchmark refining margins

29

239

206

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Other

(incl. E&P)

Environment Performance

Other

(incl. E&P)

Adjusted EBITDA causal track 3Q18 vs 3Q17 (€m)

Page 31: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

DOMESTIC MARKET ENVIRONMENTDomestic fuels demand marginally lower, while aviation fuels demand grows on strong tourism

30

(*) Does not include PPC and armed forces

Source: Ministry of Environment and Energy

-4%

+1%

670 644

708 718

227 227

3Q17

Diesel

3Q18

1,604

LPG & Others

MOGAS

1,588

-1%

+10%

-

525 579

202191

609 608

1,336

3Q17

Bunkers Gasoil

3Q18

Bunkers FO

Aviation

1,378

+3%

-6%

-

Domestic Market demand* (MT ‘000)

Aviation & Bunkers demand (MT ‘000)

3Q1Q

1,604

2Q 4Q

1,8431,732

1,525 1,494 1,588

1,934

-6%

-2% -1%

726812

721

3Q1Q 2Q 4Q

1,051 1,109

1,336 1,378

-1%

+6%

+3%

2017 2018

2017 2018

Page 32: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Contents

• HELLENIC PETROLEUM post upgrade

• Investment Highlights

• Downstream Oil Industry Update & Market developments

• 3Q18 Results

• Appendix

31

Page 33: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Summary Group Structure1

Power Generation

& Trading

Gas & Power associates

HELLENIC PETROLEUM S.A.

EKO S.A. HPI AG

HP SERBIA

HP

BULGARIA

HP CYPRUS

JP

ELPET

VALKANIKI

ELPEDISON

B.V2

HPF plc

(funding)

Domestic Marketing International Marketing

DEPA Group(Gas supply,

transportation &

distribution

50%

Asprofos

S.A. (Engineering

Services)

DIAXON

S.A. (Petchems –

BOPP)

35%

100%

VARDAX

OKTA

Others

80%

82%

(1) All companies 100% owned unless otherwise noted

(2) 45% owned through HPI

(3) Dormant co under HP32

HP

Consulting

Global3

(Albania)

EKOTA KO

SAFCO

49%

25%

KALYPSO

Shipping

companies• EKO-ATHINA

• EKO-

ARTEMIS

• EKO-

DIMITRA

• EKO-

AFRODITI

• EKO-IRA

ELPE

UPSTREAM

(OPCO)

ELPE

PATRAIKOS (50% in Patraikos –

50% EDISON)

Block 2 (50%

Total, 25%

Edison)

Exploration & Production

Asset Companies

25%

Sea of

Thrace (75%

Calfrac)

25%

RENEWABLE

ENERGY

SOURCES

ELPE

LARCO

KOKKINOU

ELPE

LARCO

SERVION

51%

51%

Renewables

ENERGEIAKI

PYLOU

METHONIS

Shipping

Companies

• HP

Apollon

• HP

Poseidon

ELPEDISON

S.A.

75%

ATEN

ENERGEIAKI

SA

Page 34: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Assets overviewCore business around downstream assets with activities across the energy value chain

DESCRIPTION METRICS

• Exploration assets in Greece

• 50% (operator) in W.

Patraikos

• Exploration rights in 4

more areas

• Complex (recently upgraded) refining system:

– Aspropyrgos (FCC, 148kbpd)

– Elefsina (HDC, 100kbpd)

– Thessaloniki (HS, 93kbpd)

• Pipeline fed refinery/terminal in FYROM

• Capacity: 16MT

• NCI: 9.3

• Market share: 65%

• Tankage: 7m M3

• Basel technology PP production (integrated with

refining) and trading

• > 60% exports in the Med basin

• Capacity (PP): 240 kt

• Leading position in all market channels (Retail,

Commercial, Aviation, Bunkering) through EKO and

BP networks

• 1,760 petrol stations

• >30% market share

• Sales volumes: 4.1MT

• Strong position in Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia,

Bulgaria, FYROM

• Advantage on supply chain/vertical integration

• c.302 petrol stations

• Sales volumes: 1.1MT

• ELPEDISON: JV with Edison/EdF • Capacity: 810 MW

• DEPA/DESFA GROUP: 35% in Greece’s incumbent

NatGas supply company (DESFA in sale process –

SPA signed – pending customary approvals)

• Volumes (2017): 4.1bcm

• Renewables (Wind, PV), targeting >200MW • 26MW operating

Refining, Supply

& Trading

Exploration &

Production

Domestic

Marketing

International

Marketing

Petrochemicals

Power & Gas

33

Page 35: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Aviation &

Bunkering

C&I (Construction,

wholesale)

Retail

Greek petroleum market overview and route to marketLeading domestic market position through vertical integration and competitive logistics assets

3rd party

Imports

60-65% 30-35%

0-10%

Greek Refining capacity: 25MT

Domestic market: 11.5MT

ELPE Group

subsidiaries: 4MT

(30%)

MOH Group

subsidiaries: 2.5MT

(25%)

Independent

marketing

companies: 4MT

(30%)

ELPE exports: 6-8MT

3rd party exports:

5MT

16MT

ELPE Group

subsidiaries: 1-2MT

19%

24%

10%10%

23%

9%

Fuel Oil5%

OthersGreek market product breakdown

Specialty markets

(PPC, public sector):

1.5MT (15%)

Gasoline

Diesel

GasoilJet

Bunkers

34

Page 36: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

11.413

10.1259.267

7.727

6.599 6.669 7.091 7.038 6.902

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Domestic market demand evolution

Does not include PPC and armed forces.

Source: Ministry of Environment & Energy.35

+1%+7%

-42%

-1%

(MT ‘000)

-2%

Page 37: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Key Diesel / Gasoil balances in the Med region, kb/d (2020)

Source: KBC Advanced Technologies, Company information.36

Diesel / Gasoil surplus (2020) Diesel / Gasoil deficit (2020)

Portugal Spain

Morocco Algeria

France

ItalyCroatia

Bosnia

Serbia

FYROM

Albania

Greece

Turkey

Cyprus

Syria

Lebanon

Libya

-51

-114 -69

-441 -35

-11

-13-12

-18-3

-260

-11+49

Israel+6

-162

Egypt

Slovenia

+79

+73

+23

-8

+20

-37

Tunisia

-4 Montenegro

Page 38: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Glossary of Key Terms

Adjusted EBITDA Reported EBITDA adjusted by inventory effect (impact of the fluctuation of crude prices on BS inventories and on the

value of products sold during the related period) and other one-off non recurring items

ADO Auto Diesel Oil

CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

COMO Company Owned Manager Operated

DCM Debt Capital Markets

FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracking

HDC Hydrocracking

HGO Heating Gasoil

HS Hydroskimming

HSFO High Sulfur Fuel Oil

IPP Independent Power Producer

MOGAS Motor Gasoline

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

NatGas Natural Gas

Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) Index assessing the refinery conversion capacity by relating each processing unit capacity against the crude distillation

capacity and applying a weighting factor.

POIH Paneuropean Oil and Industrial Holdings

PP Polypropylene

Solomon Complexity Index Compares the relative refining configuration apart from throughput capacity. It is the total of EDC (Equivalent Distillation

Capacity) divided by the sum of the crude unit stream-day capacities.

ULSD Ultra-low-sulphur Diesel

37

Page 39: Company update · High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified, complex and interconnected asset base, with crude flexibility, high value output

Disclaimer

Forward looking statements

HELLENIC PETROLEUM do not in general publish forecasts regarding their future

financial results. The financial forecasts contained in this document are based on a series

of assumptions, which are subject to the occurrence of events that can neither be

reasonably foreseen by HELLENIC PETROLEUM, nor are within HELLENIC

PETROLEUM's control. The said forecasts represent management's estimates, and should

be treated as mere estimates. There is no certainty that the actual financial results of

HELLENIC PETROLEUM will be in line with the forecasted ones.

In particular, the actual results may differ (even materially) from the forecasted ones due

to, among other reasons, changes in the financial conditions within Greece, fluctuations in

the prices of crude oil and oil products in general, as well as fluctuations in foreign

currencies rates, international petrochemicals prices, changes in supply and demand and

changes of weather conditions. Consequently, it should be stressed that HELLENIC

PETROLEUM do not, and could not reasonably be expected to, provide any

representation or guarantee, with respect to the creditworthiness of the forecasts.

This presentation also contains certain financial information and key performance

indicators which are primarily focused at providing a “business” perspective and as a

consequence may not be presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting

Standards (IFRS).

38