Community Resilience: Challenges, Requirements, and Organizational Models
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Transcript of Community Resilience: Challenges, Requirements, and Organizational Models
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Community Resilience: Challenges, Requirements, and Organizational Models
VincenzoDe FlorioMOSAIC: UniAntwerp iMinds
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Times, they are a-changin’…
Less resources
Higher peaks, harder
shocks
Higher number
of users…
ICT
Energy product-ion & distribution
Businesses
Transport ofgoods & people
Water treatment& distribution
CRISISMANAGEMENT
Understanding & rethinkingour organizations is crucial!
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With the meter in the red zone…• …organizations that
appeared to work fine reveal their limitations!– lose too much – use up too many resources– do not scale well– intolerable to changes– fail to address new aspects
→ Traditional approaches are reaching structural limits.
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Challenges• How do we address “big” societal
problems such as crises & disasters?• How do we rethink our organizations?
Which tools, which software could help?
1.Intro: What are crises?2.A case study3.Requirements4.Conjectures & models
This ppt
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CRISES
Single events(or chains thereof) with multiple and diverseconsequences
PUBLICHEALTH
ECONOMY
PUBLICSAFETY
NATIONALSECURITY
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CRISES
Single events(or chains thereof) affectingmultiple "human circles"
People
Local responders
State responders...
Businessorganizations
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KATRINA
One of the five deadliest hurricanes in US history
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Katrina’s circles:Private circles
People:Individuals, families,neighbors...
Private organizations:Business orgs, communities
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Katrina’s circles:Institutional circles
Local institutions:City policeFire brigadesFlood rescue
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Katrina’s circles:State circles
Stateorganizations:Depts ofemergencymanagement
Budget: (e.g., California): $80M/y
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Katrina’s circles:Federal circles
Federalorganization:FederalEmergencyResponseOrg, $10.9B/y
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Katrina’s circles:National circles
Dept of HomelandSecurity(created in 2001; abso- rbed FEMA in 2003)
Requested budget (2015): $38.2B
The farther,the costlier
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Katrina’s circlesPeople Individuals, families, neighbors...
Private organizations Business orgs, communities
Local emergency response organization City police, fire brigades, flood teams
State emergency response organization Depts of emergency management:
http://www.fema.gov/state-offices-and-agencies-emergency-managementBudget (California): $80M
• Federal emergency response organization FEMA, $10.9 billion budget (2012)
Absorbed in the DHS (2003)(Department of Homeland Security)
Institutionalresponders
= Multi-level system of emergency mgmt
Privatecircles
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How did it fare?
BADLY!
Strict hierarchy→ Each layer is
SPOC & SPOF
Slow initial response
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How did it fare?
Info/KW collection/
dissemination: centralized!
Slow reactions
"Where in the hell is the cavalry on this one?!"
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How did it fare?
Far-from-the-field control
Wrong/untimely
decisions!
E.g. $12.5M to buy ice for K's victims → unused/melted away
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How did it fare?"Poor comm.
among federal/ state/local entities"
"Unadequate readiness"
"Reduced effectiveness"Major reason?
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Major reason:Institutional-
only response!“[Responders] would have been
able to do more if the tri-level system (city, state, federal) of
emergency response was able to effectively use, collaborate with,
and coordinate the combined public and private efforts.
How to do so [...] is a central task of enhancing community
resilience.”CARRI 3 Tech Report
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Community Resilience• "A measure of the sustained ability
of a community to utilize available resources to respond to, withstand, and recover from adverse situations."
• Conjecture: three aspects.RAND 3 Tech Report
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Limited inter-circleinteroperability
Individual-context worst-case dimensioning:Worst-case analysis done w/o considering collaborative sharing of resources among the participating circles
Difficulty to propagateKW & share assets
Three aspects1) Organization
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Limited inter-circleinteroperability
Individual-context worst-case dimensioning:Worst-case analysis done w/o considering collaborative sharing of resources among the participating circles
Plastic, fragileorganizations
Difficulty to propagateKW & share assets
Three aspects1) Organization
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Limited inter-circleinteroperability
Individual-context worst-case dimensioning:Worst-case analysis done w/o considering collaborative sharing of resources among the participating circles
Plastic, fragileorganizations
Difficulty to propagateKW & share assets
Three aspects1) Organization
Expensive!
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Three aspects2) Society
Private circles: INACTIVE!
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Three aspects2) Society
Private circles: INACTIVE!
Waste ofsocial energy
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Pre-definedroles /
behaviors
Three aspects3) Behavior
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Pre-definedroles /
behaviors
Private circles: DEMOTED!
Three aspects3) Behavior
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Pre-definedroles /
behaviors
Private circles: DEMOTED!
Passive-behaviored
components (objects!)
Three aspects3) Behavior
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→ Emergence failures
Centrifugal forces
Behavioral mismatches →
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→ Emergence failures
Centrifugal forces
Behavioral mismatches →
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Conjecture 1• Society must be part of "the solution"• Society ≡ abundant "pool" of mobile
“resources” able to exercise complex action
• Need: engineer ways to tap into the nearly unlimited sources of “social energy” of our societies.
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Conjecture 2• Fact: Organizational choices
determine the features of our systems• Classic model (quasi-closed,
hierarchical systems): incapable of any complex interoperability.
• Need: open smart organizations– Self-optimizing– Inter-organizational collective strategies– Mutualistic relationships; collaborative
sharing of data and resources, etc.
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Conjecture 2 (cont.d)• Conjecture: Biologically inspired
distributed organizations may play a key role in the emergence of collectively intelligent responses – Holarchies and fractal organizations– “Simultaneously a part & a whole, a
container & a contained, a controller & a controlled” [Sousa et al., 2000]
– Networks of peer-levels (members).
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Conjecture 3• A match should exist between the
behaviors exercised by the societal nodes and those exercised and expected by the enrolling organization
• Community resilience only emerges when this match is sustained.
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Community Resilience• How?• Through sociotechnical
organizations managing communities of participating members.
• No preclusion (→ all society can contribute)
• No constrain (→ behaviors are not pre-assigned)
• Service-oriented communities, fractal social organizations.
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Service-oriented Community• Sociotechnical organization
built by explicitly addressing organization/society/behavior:–Node of a distributed organization–Taps into “social energy”–Supports complex resilient
behaviours.
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37
Service provider Servicerequester
Service registry
Starting point: classical SOA model
Publish Discover
Bind
Servicedescription
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38
Member Member
Service registry
Servicedescription
Service-oriented Community
Publish Publish
Bind
Local reasoning & coordination
Individual &social concerns
optimization
CapabilitiesPoliciesAvailabilityLocation…
Events
People`Things’
Components...
Member
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Reasoning & coordination
Member Member
Member w/service & feature registry
Service& feature
Service-oriented Community
Publish Publish
Individual &social concerns
optimization.
CapabilitiesPoliciesAvailabilityLocation…
Events
PeopleDevices
Components
SOCIETY
BEHAVIOUR
OR
GA
NIZ
ATI
ON
Bind
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SoC for Ambient Assistance: Mutual Assistance
Community
40
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Mutual Assistance Community• Aim:
–Optimally orchestrate devices & beings –Complement existing healthcare orgs–Special purpose SoC: organize intelligent
responses to AAL scenarios• Not just safety nets:
– Reducing social isolation of elderly people– Reducing costs best utilizing the social
resources.
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Mutual Assistance Community• Self-serve paradigm (mutually satisfying requests).
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Member Member
Service and feature registry
Servicedescription
Publish Publish
Bind
Local analysisand coordination
Intra-circleprocessing
CapabilitiesPoliciesAvailabilityLocations…
Roles &situations
People`Things’
Member
MemberMember MemberMember
SoC's…
Inter-circleprocessing
SoC as a building blockException → Event propagation
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Fractal Social Orgs
• Mathematical model: http://goo.gl/gvVGH5
• Geometrical and audio representations– Modularity– Self-similarity– Fractal dimension!
http://goo.gl/vO8RKj
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Elements of a ModelModel of the collective behavior in a “flat” society of roles
Society = multiset of roles (=integers)
Example: S = {0,0, 1,1, 2, 3,3, 4,4} =
2 nurses
2 GPs 1 patient2 sensors
2 cars
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Elements of a Model
Event: Condition c takes place (for instance, a patient has fallen)Response:
Intervention of 1 GP and 1 nurse. Society S gets partitioned into two “blocks”:
L = {0, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4} and R = {0, 1, 2}.
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• "Templates" that repeat at different scale–Blocks that represent other
"sub-communities" (circles!)–Societal responses to sub-problems!
• Fractal Social Organization: fractal organization of communicating & collaborating communities
Modularity
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A fractal organization of SoC’s
51
CIRCLES
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Laye
r 0(R
aw
com
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ElectronicHealth
Records
...U
pper
la
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(S
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Laye
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Laye
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uild
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iMinds project “LittleSister”
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Little Sister• Low-cost non-intrusive
telemonitoring solution• System: multi-tier
distributed architecture
• Specially designed low-resolution sensors
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Little Sister• Services structured within hierarchical
federation reflecting structure of deployment environment
• All resources wrapped as manageable web services
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Little Sister : Resolving Resources• Seamless integration w/ external apps (layer 4)• Information exchange: pub-sub mechanism• Events “flow” upward — dedicated software
component available at each service group
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Conclusions• “We are confronted with a vast quantity
of plastic..." organizations!• An organization "is like a parachute --
it doesn't work if it's not open" [ZAPPA!]→ New models are needed!→...With new models... new challenges
– A.o., how to guarantee the identity of the "system"
– SoC and FSO: also tools to raise the attention and enhance awareness
– Much to be done... we're on the move!