Community of StouffvilleCommercial Policy Study UpdateBackground & Analysis Study Report

Public Information CentreNovember 7, 2012

Presentation Outline

• Study Purpose• Study Status• Existing Commercial Hierarchy• Relationship to 2005 Study• Commercial Land Supply Adequacy• Potential Market Opportunities• Market Study Conclusions• Policy Implications

Study Purpose

Update 2005 Commercial Policy Study to:

• assess adequacy of commercial land supply

• determine if any revisions are needed to:– land use designations; and – policies/zone standards

Study Status

Existing Commercial Hierarchy

Existing Commercial Hierarchy

Existing Commercial Hierarchy

• Significant new commercial development potential existing in the existing hierarchy:– Hoover Park Town Centre: 150,000 sq. ft.

–Minto/Trinity: 82,190 sq. ft.

Existing Commercial Hierarchy

– Former Canadian Tire, Houston Motors, Works Yard: potential for >100,000 sq. ft.

– Ringwood: small lot potential

Existing Commercial Hierarchy

– Stouffville Country Market: 125,000 sq. ft.

Relationship to 2005 Study• 2005 - Peer Review of market studies for 2

major commercial developments• 2012 – Market projections repeat the

research undertaken in 2005 by Malone Given Parsons based on same trade area including:– License plate surveys– Consumer telephone survey– Update floor space inventory

Supermarket/Grocery *, 103,911sf,

11.4%

Specialty Food, 21,900sf, 2.4%

Dep't Store (non-food), 135,600sf,

14.9%

Non-Dep’t Store, 293,067sf, 32.2%HI, 26,860sf, 3.0%

Personal Services, 37,670sf, 4.1%

Professional Services, 45,240sf, 5.0%

Other Services, 59,232sf, 6.5%

Restaurants, 117,747sf, 12.9%

Bank/Trust, 24,215sf, 2.7%

Liquor/Beer/Wine, 13,770sf, 1.5%

Other Space NEC, 26,908sf, 3.0%

Vacancy, 4,000sf, 0.4%

Figure 1 - 2012 Floorspace Inventory (Total: 910,120 ft2)*Includes 27,000 square feet of supermarket-equivalent space in Walmart

Adequacy of Supply• 2005 = 475,000 sq. ft.• 2012 = 900,000 sq. ft.• Vacancy Rate = <1%

Adequacy of Supply• Current supply exceeds demand until 2021• Market projections are not conclusive

beyond 5 years• Recognizing this context current

projections identify potential supply deficit of +/-14 acres by 2031 (+/- 150,000 sq.ft. @ 25% coverage)

Potential Market Opportunities

• Inflow has increased since 2005:– Hoover Park: 40%– Downtown: 35%–Western Approach: 30%

• High capture rates of > 60%:– confined to generally lower order goods – primarily at Hoover Park anchors

Potential Market Opportunities

• Low capture rates of < 40% for medium/higher order categories:– Most fashion – Certain specialty retail– Certain home furnishings and interior décor– Home improvement

• Indicates large outflow of $• Suggests understoring• Potential to attract anchor and non-anchor stores

in weaker categories

Potential Market Opportunities

• Short Term– Electronics and computer space

• Medium term– Small department stores – Regional chain store anchor– New format drug store– Fashion and accessory– Small infusion of home furnishings

Market Study ConclusionsIn market terms, policies successful, but slowly based on the following:– In a slowing retail development environment,

Stouffville continues to serve a consistent trade area with a shift to increased regional draws

– Increased regional draws are generally specific to Hoover Park, but are shared by other commercial nodes to a lesser degree

– Hierarchy is in relative good health with low vacancy rate and productive performance levels of existing space off-set by significant merchandising gaps

– No significant supply deficit until after 2021

Market Study Conclusions• 2005 Policy Update created a generally healthy

commercial hierarchy.• However, number of factors which affect rate of

maturation as evidenced in difficulty leasing space at Hoover Park and lack of interest in Western Approach

• Factors affecting rate of maturation include:– Population growth– Policy controls– Factors affecting developers and

tenants– Factors affecting consumers– Lack of perceived identity for

Western Approach-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001 2006 2011 2012 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Popu

lati

on P

roje

ction

s

Year

Figure 7 - Population Projections

PTA

STA South

STA East

Market Study Conclusions• Despite apparent slow maturation, hierarchy serves a

high income area with good population growth prospects

• However, Community must contend with market issues that affect the longer term market projections

• Given market uncertainties, consideration should be given as to whether it is premature to designate additional lands for commercial development at the current time which might put at risk the planned function of the current hierarchy

• May be preferable to continue to monitor and encourage commercial intensification in the Downtown and the Western Approach and to work with Hoover Park to encourage completion of that development

Policy Implications

• Downtown Policy Direction– Maintain the downtown as a central meeting

place and shopping area for the community recognizing its important contribution to the character of the community

• Questions/Future Directions– Are the current policy directions which provide

for its protection and enhancement sufficient to ensure its continued success as a shopping area for the community?

Policy Implications• Regional Retail Centre Policy Direction

– Major retail uses may be permissible in a manner that is complementary to, and does not undermine, the function of the Western Approach Area, the Core Area, or the Neighbourhood Retail Area

• Questions/Future Directions– Is a minimum size of 371 sq.m (4,000 sq.ft) for large

retail stores still appropriate? – Are financial institutions still important “anchors” for the

Downtown and Western Approach Area? Should such uses still continue to be prohibited in the Regional Retail Centre until an office building is located in the area?

Policy Implications• Regional Retail Questions/Future Directions

– Are liquor and beer retail stores and outlets still important “anchors” for the Downtown and Western Approach Area? Should such uses still continue to be prohibited in the Regional Retail Centre? Can exceptions be made for small outlets which form part of a larger store?

– Are food supermarkets, food stores and grocery stores still important “anchors” for the Downtown and Western Approach Area? Should such uses still continue to be prohibited in the Regional Retail Centre? Can additional exceptions be made similar to the 2,500 square metres of floor area permitted in a store over 10,000 square metres?

– Can personal service establishments of less than 92 square metres be permitted in the Regional Retail Centre?

– Are restaurants still important “anchors” in the Downtown and Western Approach Area? Should additional restaurants be permitted in the Regional Retail Centre above the current 2,730 square metre “cap”? 

Policy Implications

• Western Approach Area– The intent for the Western Approach Area is to create a

diverse, thriving commercial district combined with a range of uses including employment, entertainment and residential uses.

• Questions/Future Directions– What additional or refined policy direction is required to

encourage redevelopment of the major vacant sites in the Western Approach Area?

– Would combining the two existing land use designations which are similar assist in creating a clearer identity for the area? What other additional or refined policy direction would assist in clarifying identity of this area and its role in the community?

Policy Implications

• Gateway Mixed Use Area– The policy direction for this area is the creation of a

unique and special mixed use district which promotes commercial development integrated with residential uses. Special architectural and landscaping treatment is required to strengthen the area’s identity and improve the quality of the public realm.

• Questions/Future Directions– Is the lack of development in this area and the lack of an

established “gateway” to the community in this location hindering development in the Western Approach area and contributing to its lack of identity?

Policy Implications

Gateway/Mixed Use Area• Questions/Future Directions (cont’d)– What additional or refined policy direction or

other action by the Town is required to resolve the constraints to development in this area? 

– Would a detailed tertiary plan which includes a detailed approach for addressing constraints to development assist in resolving the situation? 

– Should a Community Improvement Plan be considered to assist in the redevelopment of this area?

Policy Implications• Neighbourhood Retail Area

– The Neighbourhood Retail Area designation currently applies only to a site on the east side of 10th Line north of Main Street, although the policies recognize the potential for the designation of additional areas. The planned function is as a commercial district which provides a range of goods and services designed to meet the day to day requirements of the area residential neighbourhoods. Mixed use is promoted as part of this designation.

• Questions/Future Directions– Should the lands at Main Street and 10th Line or other sites be

recognized as a Neighbourhood Retail Area?– What is the potential for the development of the current

Neighbourhood Retail Area considering future development of Phase 3 of the Community of Stouffville?

Thank You