Communicating Your Economic Impact: Identifying Trends ......Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Apr-2011...
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Communicating Your Economic Impact: Identifying Trends & Customizing Data CT Nonprofit Conference October 2, 2018
Transcript of Communicating Your Economic Impact: Identifying Trends ......Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Apr-2011...
CommunicatingYourEconomicImpact:IdentifyingTrends&CustomizingDataCT Nonprofit Conference October 2, 2018
©CERC2018
Overview• GlobalTrends• NationalTrends• U.S.IndustryChanges• Connecticut’sEconomy• NonproGitSector
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Global Trends Strengthening Economic Activity as a Whole
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PercentageofWorldGDP
27.6%
4.8%
10.0%
24.3%
14.9%
5.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2005 2015
Source: World Development Indicators Database, World Bank, Feb, 2017
(GDP in Current U.S Dollars)
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WorldOutputEstimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2016 2017 2018Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2017
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National Trends Economic growth trends
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2018Q2U.SGDPComponents
Source: St. Louis Fed
Personalconsump.onexpenditures
64%
Grossprivatedomes.cinvestment
17%
Netexportsofgoodsand
services-3%
Governmentconsump.onexpendituresandgrossinvestment
16%
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U.S.StockMarket
Source: Google Finance
S&P500Index
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Source: S&P
U.S.HousingMarket
0
50
100
150
200
250
Apr-2008Apr-2009Apr-2010Apr-2011Apr-2012Apr-2013Apr-2014Apr-2015Apr-2016Apr-2017Apr-2018
S&PCoreLogicCase-ShillerU.S.NaEonalHomePriceNSAIndex
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Source: Trading Economics
U.S.ConsumerConGidence
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U.S Industry Trends Affects How Businesses Anticipate Consumer Demand, Profitability and Competitiveness
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Retail:25%ofU.S.MallstoCloseby2022
Source: Credit Suisse
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Warehousingü Rapid delivery ü Smaller
packages ü Variety of goods
VS. Large number of same goods on pallets
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Financial Services
ü User friendly online interface
ü Fewer/no local bankers
ü International expansion
New trends:
Longer-term goals:
ü Enhancing cyber security
ü Responding to breaches in a
transparent and customer
friendly way
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Manufacturing: Automa7on
• Automation and robotic technology becomes more widespread for manufacturing businesses
• Will cause disruption or displacement of jobs but will also will create approximately 15 million new jobs in the U.S. over the next ten years
A fundamental economic transition
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Construction–SlowGrowthADVANTAGESOFFSETBYCHALLENGES
Technologyadvancements:Drones,self-drivingvehicles,visualizationsoftwareandhardware
Increasedcostsinrawmaterialsandlabor
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Why Millennials Aren’t Buying Homes?
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Housingislessaffordableformillennials
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Studentdebtmakesithardtotakeonamortgageloan
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Millennialsarespendingmoreonrenting
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Millennialsaremorelikelytolivewiththeirparents
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Connecticut Modest Economic Growth Yet Needs a Boost
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Source: Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Nov. 2017
Top10CTIndustries
27.5%
12.1%
10.9%
10.5%
10.1%
6.5%
5.5%
5.1%
3.2%
3.2%
Finance,Insurance,RealEstate,RentalandLeasing
ProfessionalandBusinessServices
Manufacturing
Government
Educa.onalServices,HealthCareandSocialAssistance
WholesaleTrade
RetailTrade
Informa.on
Construc.on
Arts,Entertainment,Recrea.on,Accommoda.onandFoodServices
Percentageof2016GDP
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Source: CT Department of Labor
CT2016-2017EmploymentChange
-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
InformaEon
Government
LeisureAndHospitality
Trade,TransportaEon,UEliEes
Manufacturing
ConstrucEon,NaturalResources&Mining
OtherServices.
Professional&BusinessServices
EducaEonAndHealthServices
FinancialAcEviEes
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CTMedianHouseholdIncome
$65,000
$66,000
$67,000
$68,000
$69,000
$70,000
$71,000
$72,000
$73,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MedianHouseholdIncome
Source: U.S Census Bureau
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Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
CTResidentPopulation
3460
3480
3500
3520
3540
3560
3580
3600
3620
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ResidentPopulaEoninCT
ResidentPopulaEoninCT
InThousands
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Source: U.S Census Bureau
CTPopulationbyAge
32% 32% 32% 31% 31% 31% 31%
33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 31% 31%
28% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31%
7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Below25 25-49 50-74 74andover
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CTPopulationbyRace
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Twoormoreraces
Someotherracealone
Na.veHawaiianandOtherPacificIslanderaloneAsianalone
AmericanIndianandAlaskaNa.vealone
Source: U.S Census Bureau
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CTNativeandForeignBorn
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NaEve ForeignBorn
Source: U.S Census Bureau
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Source: Connecticut’s Population and Migration Trends: A Multi-Data Source Dive, CT Office of Policy and Management, 2016
ComponentsofPopulationChangePre-andPost-recession
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Births Deaths NetInternaEonalMigraEon
NetDomesEcMigraEon
2004-2007Average 2013-2016Average
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Source: U.S Census Bureau
CTHousingPermits2010-2016
-1,500
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1Unit 2-4Unit 5+Units DemoliEons NetTotal
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HousingUnitVacancyRates
92% 91%
8% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Occupied Vacant
Source: U.S Census Bureau
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EducationAttainment:CTandU.S.
Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey
0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%
EducaEonA]ainmentforPopulaEon25andover,2016
UnitedStates Connec.cut
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Source: American Community Survey
EducationAttainment:CTandCities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Highschoolgraduate Associate'sdegree Bachelor'sdegreeormore
2016Educa.onalAWainmentbyCi.esandState
ConnecEcut Stamford Har_ord NewHaven Waterbury
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Source: US BLS
UnemploymentRate:CTandU.S.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
ConnecEcut UnitedStates
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Source: CT DOL
CTEmploymentChangesbyIndustry
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Nonprofit Sector Impacts economies on multiple levels
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NonproGitOrganizations501(c)(3) Public
Charities 501(c)(3) Private
Foundations Other Exempt Organizations
Arts,highereducaEon,
hospitals,human
services&more
• RegisterwithIRS• Unregistered
• Allmustregisterand
file
• Mostrelyon
investmentincome
generatedfromtheir
endowments
• 501(c)(4)SocialWelfare
• 501(c)(5)Laborunions,
farmbureaus&more
• 501(c)(6)Businessleagues
• 501(c)(7)Social&
recreaEonalclubs
• 15-20othersmall
categories
Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics
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SectorsintheNon-ProGitIndustry
Health Servic
es
Education
Social and
Legal Service
s
Civic and Environme
ntal Advocacy
International
Relations and
Development
Arts and
Culture
The largest sector within the nonprofit industry in terms of economic value and employment
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DataThatMattertoNonproGitsTo Identify Donors and Volunteer Data U.S Census- American Community Survey • Educational Attainment • Income • Real estate ownership • Population working part time
To Evaluate Goals, Activities, Short-term and Long-term Outcomes • Surveys • Demographic and economic data • Economic impact assessments • Feasibility studies
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https://independentsector.org/about/the-charitable-sector/
FactsandFiguresabouttheNonproGitIndustry
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CTRanks#12inNonproGitEmployment
#12CT27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Employmentaspercentageoflaborforce
Source:BureauofLaborStaEsEcs;CalculatedbyCERC
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LargestNonproGitOrganizationsinCT
0M 10000M 20000M 30000M
YaleUniversity
YaleNewHavenHospitalHar_ordHospital
QuinnipiacUniversityWesleyanUniversity
Har_ordHealthCareCorporaEonTrinityCollege
DanburyHospital
LargestNonprofitOrganizaEonsbyTotalAssets
Source:TheNaEonalCenterforCharitableStaEsEcs
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FactsandFiguresabouttheNonproGitIndustry
https://independentsector.org/about/the-charitable-sector/
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TheNonproGitSectorinConnecticut
NumberofConnec.cutNonprofitOrganiza.ons
AllNonprofitOrganizaEons 18,602
501(C)(3)PublicChariEes(IncludesSomeReligiousOrganizaEons)
11,860
501(C)(3)PrivateAndPublicFoundaEons 1,770
Other501(C)NonprofitOrganizaEons 4,972
Source: independentsector.org
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EconomicImpactofCTNonproGitSector
Employs
of state labor force
14%
Holds
assets $121
B $3.4B
Each year, CT residents give
to charity
Generates
in annual avenues $37
B $999M CT foundations
give over
annually
Source: independentsector.org
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AnalyzingYourNonproGit’sImpact
• Economicimpactofjobs,investments,capital• Client,volunteerand/ordonorsatisfactionandprogresstowardgoals
• Howapopulationhaschangedorsucceededovertimegiveneconomicconditions
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LookingAhead• World:steadyeconomicgrowth• U.S.:risingconsumerspending,lowunemployment,overallrobusteconomy
• CT:sluggisheconomyrelativetothenation• NonproGitsector
• Showrelevanceandimpacttocommunicatewithstakeholders• Tellastorywithdata:economic,demographics,surveyandimpactdata
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ThankYou
AlissaDeJonge,VPofResearch
860.571.6206or1.800.392.2122
www.cerc.com
@CERCInc
