Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods
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Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS
Shenzhen, BGI , 1st Sigenet Workshop
Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods
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“…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.”
Dorothy L. Sayers
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Overview
Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
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Overview
Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
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Risk
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Risk is Everywhere
The risk concept could beapplied to everything.”M. PowerThe Risk Management of Everything. Rethinking the politics of uncertainty. London: Demos 2004
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Risk is Everywhere Living close to a power
station Working in a chemical plant Skiing Buying shares Sun bathing Playing golf Being (un)married
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Components of the Risk Concept Effect: Cause-effect relationship Loss: Negative relevance of the effect Uncertainty: Probability of the loss Level of evidence: Knowledge about these components
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Uncertain Risks Is there a risk? How large is the risk?
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Uncertainty is business as usualIARC Classification of potential carcinogenic substances
Peter Wiedemann
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How big is the risk?
Source: WHO (2007) : Extremely Low Frequency Fields Environmental Health Criteria Monograph No.23
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Overview
Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
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Risk Communication
Interactive exchange of information about health or environmental risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups, and the general public.
WHO 2004, IPCS Risk Assessment Terminology
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Risk Communication
Purpose of RC RC is needed for informed decision making and
informed judgements about health impacts
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RC Examples What does a positive mammography screening test
indicate? How probable is it to get breast cancer if I have a BRCA
1 mutation? Are cell phone safe for children?
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Ingredients of Good RC Reliable & valid data Over all picture (don´t lose the sight of the wood for
the trees) Good reporting (transparency, clarity, reasonableness,
unbiased information processing) Credibility
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Overview
Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
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Hurdles and Barriers Complexity Inquisitorial science system in an adversarial societal
context Mis-attribution of uncertainty Biased assimilation / confirmation bias
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Informing about Hazard-related Uncertainty
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Overview
Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Challenges Models and Methods Epilogue
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Various Models Risk perception Risk communication Dialogue theories Persuasion theories Social marketing Theories of information processing
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Routes of Information ProcessingElaboration Route Information
processingDecisioncriteria
Message
Highlevel Central Careful,
analyticQuality of argument
s
Lowlevel Peripheral Cursory,
intuitivePersuasiv
e cues
Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change
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Evidence Maps CORA
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Evidence Maps EM are tools for synthesizing reporting evidence
Process structure Reporting structure
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Evidence AssessmentEvidence Maps
Visualization of basic facts
• Evidence base
• Pro and con-arguments
• Conclusion
• Uncertainty
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Evidence Map - Elements
Pro-Argument:
< ... >
Evidence Basis:• <Number of studies>
Contra-Argument:
< ... >
Conclusion:
< ... >
supporting< ...>
Remaining Uncertainties
< ... >
attenuating < ... >
supporting< ...>
attenuating < ... >
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Routes of Information ProcessingElaboration Route Information
processingDecisioncriteria
Message
Highlevel Central Careful,
analyticQuality of argument
s
Lowlevel Peripheral Cursory,
intuitivePersuasiv
e cues
Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change
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Framework for communicating risk assessment reports (CORA)
CORA
Competency
Integrity
Quality assurance
Transparency
Stakeholder involvement
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More Information
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EpilogueThe future is not yet know
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James Lind Alliance
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Future project: Reporting evidence including uncertainties of Omics based tests and therapies
Webpage
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