COMMUNICATING CLIMATE IMPACTS · 2017. 5. 4. · bottom of the U.S. public’s policy priorities...
Transcript of COMMUNICATING CLIMATE IMPACTS · 2017. 5. 4. · bottom of the U.S. public’s policy priorities...
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COMMUNICATING
CLIMATE IMPACTS Local Solutions Conference
May 2014
www.climateaccess.org
SOCIAL CAPITAL STRATEGIES
US POLLING SUMMARY
METHODOLOGY
LITERATURE AND POLLING REVIEW:
122 articles including survey data from 2005 to 2014 and academic research from the fields of behavioral science,
communications, development studies, environmental
studies, political science, and psychology.
SCAN OF THE FIELD:
Reviewed 39 examples of campaigns, tools, and on-the-
ground projects related to climate preparation
communication and outreach.
Yale/GMU 2013
63% of Americans believe global warming is happening
(with an increase in those who don’t think it’s happening).
US POLLING: ISSUE UNDERSTANDING
Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in November 2013 8
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1. Climate Change Beliefs
1.1. A majority of Americans believe global warming is happening.
About two in three Americans (63%) believe global warming is happening. Relatively few – only 23 percent – believe it is not. The proportion who believe global warming is real has remained steady since Spring 2013. However, the proportion who do not believe global warming is happening has increased 7 percentage points since Spring 2013. The proportion of Americans who say they “don’t know” whether or not global warming is happening has dropped 6 points – from 20 to 14 – since Spring of 2013.
58% of Americans say they worry a great deal or fair
amount about global warming.
Gallup 2013
US POLLING: CONCERN
54% of Americans saying the effects of global warming
have already begun.
Gallup 2013
US POLLING: IMPACTS
Global warming has ranked at or near the
bottom of the U.S. public’s policy priorities
since 2009.
29% say global warming is a top priority
(ranked 19 out of 20 issues) in Jan 2014.
US POLLING: PRIORITY
Pew 2014
Yale/GMU 2013
Most Americans believe global warming will primarily harm future generations and plant/animal species.
Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in November 2013 15
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3. The Perceived Threat of Global Warming 3.1. Global warming is seen as a relatively distant threat.
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Over years of research, we have consistently found that, on average, Americans view global warming as a
threat distant in space and time – a risk that will affect far away places, other species, or future generations
more than people here and now.
We still find this same pattern, in which fewer than half of Americans (38%) believe they personally will be harmed a “moderate amount” or a “great deal” by global warming. By contrast, half or more believe that global warming will harm future generations of people (65%), plant and animal species (65%), people in developing countries (56%), people in other industrialized societies (54%), or people in the U.S. (53%).
US POLLING: DISTANT THREAT
40% say we
could reduce
global warming, but
it’s unclear whether
we will do what’s
necessary.
5% say humans
can reduce global
warming and that
we’ll do so
successfully.
Yale/GMU 2013
51%
45% 47%
41%
47% 46% 49%
45%
40%
5% 10%
5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 3%
5%
11/08(n=2,164)
1/2010(n=1,001)
6/2010(n=1,024)
5/2011(n=1,010)
11/2011(n=1,000)
3/2012(n=1,008)
9/2012(n=1,061)
4/2013(n=1,045)
11/2013(n=x)
GROWING NUMBER OF AMERICANS BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING WON’T BE STOPPED
Have hope that…….
67% People want to save resources for future generations
64% People are becoming informed
58% Once people feel the impacts they’ll act
THOSE WHO BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING
IS HAPPENING:
Yale/GMU 2013
But they doubt action we be taken because……
72% Corporations care only about their own profits
68% Most people don’t know what they can do
52% People have higher priorities to worry about
CLIMATE IMPACTS
59% weather has been
getting worse
70% experienced
extreme weather
33% experienced global
warming
PERSONAL EXPERIENCE WITH
EXTREME WEATHER
51% experienced
extreme heat in the past
year
67% say global
warming contributed to
record highs
HEAT WAVES
42% experienced
drought conditions
49% say climate change
exacerbated droughts
65% say climate change
is fueling wildfires
DROUGHT & WILDFIRES
41% experienced an
extreme rainstorm
15% experienced a
hurricane
46% say climate change
made Superstorm Sandy
more severe
EXTREME STORMS
73% say global warming will
cause sea-level rise
76% say sea-level rise will be
serious problem
SEA-LEVEL RISE
85% favor preparedness
60% think preparing will
create jobs
94% think it will be difficult
VIEWS ON PREPARATION
HOW RISK PLAYS A ROLE
1. Discounting the Future
2. Dealing with Complexity
3. Displacing Risk
HOW RISK PLAYS A ROLE
4. Individual vs.
Societal Risk
5. Illusion of Control
6. Optimism Bias
HOW RISK PLAYS A ROLE
7. Valuing Certainty
8. Psychological
Denial
9. Filtering Based on
Values
Recommendations
START WITH AUDIENCE VALUES
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Recommendations
Disinterest Deliberation Design Doing Defend
Organizational/
self-reevaluation Commitment
Helping relationships
Disturbances
Awareness-building
Choice expansion
Emotional Inspiration
Supportive relationships
Cognitive and Experiential Change Mechanisms
Behavior Change Mechanisms
CHANGE STAGES AND MECHANISMS
Reinforcement
Substitution
Structural Redesign
Recommendations
LEVERAGE WEATHER EVENTS
•Connect the dots to
climate carefully
• Emphasize trends more
certain
•Concern for humanity
• Less severe trends also
important
Recommendations DISINTERES
T
EXPERIENTIAL EDUCATION
Recommendations DISINTERES
T
Art and Culture
Recommendations DISINTERES
T
Recommendations
FOCUS ON PREPARATION
DELIBERATION
Why me?
What are the stakes? What are the solutions?
What is the problem?
Why now? Connect to
identity.
Economic, community,
and individual well-
being.
Balance impacts with solutions
that are on scale with them. Frame
mitigation as an effective way to
prepare for and reduce risk.
Impacts are causing harm
now and are only getting
worse.
Waiting to act will
make the task more
diffic
u
l t and cost ly .
Recommendations DELIBERATION
Recommendations
EXPLORE TRENDS, RATHER THAN
ARGUE ABOUT SCIENCE
DELIBERATION
Recommendations
EMPHASIZE CURRENT AND REGIONAL IMPACTS
DELIBERATION
Recommendations
USE IMPACT
SCENARIOS TO ILLUSTRATE TRENDS
DELIBERATION/DESIG
N
Recommendations
USE EFFECTIVE VISUALS
DELIBERATION
Recommendations
USE EFFECTIVE VISUALS
DELIBERATION
Recommendations
USE EFFECTIVE VISUALS
DELIBERATION
Recommendations
USE A DIALOGUE AND PEER-BASED OUTREACH METHODS
DELIBERATION/DESIGN
Recommendations DELIBERATION/DESIGN
Recommendations DELIBERATION/
DESIGN
Recommendations
MOTIVATE THE MOTIVATED &
AGGREGATE THEIR ACTIONS
DOING
http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov
Recommendations DOING/DEFENDING
Recommendations
PROMOTE
AND REWARD
LEADERSHIP
IN PREPARATION
DOING/DEFENDING
Recommendations DOING/DEFENDING
APPLYING ENGAGEMENT
BEST PRACTICES