Commonwealth Bank Economics Daily Alert 09-13-2011

8/4/2019 Commonwealth Bank Economics Daily Alert 09-13-2011

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Economics: Daily Alert13 September 2011

hris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. [email protected]

Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and atww.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.

US sharemarkets rebound over the last hour of trade.

The OECD leading indicator for the grouping of 33 "rich" nations has fallen for afourth straight month from 102.1 to 101.6 in July .

European Central Bank governing council member Athanasios Orphanides said thatthe US economy has experienced a "growth slowdown, but the consensus view is notthat of a recession."

The Financial Times has reported on its website that Italy has asked China to make"significant" purchases of Italian debt.

European shares hit fresh 2-year lows on Monday as reports continued to swirl abouta Greek debt default or ratings downgrades for French banks. There were no actualevents that drove trade. The FTSEurofirst index fell by 2.7pct, the German Dax lost

2.3pct and the UK FTSE lost 1.6pct.US sharemarkets staged a stunning rebound with the Dow Jones rallying 200pts inthe last 45 minutes of trade. Rumours that Italy has asked China to buy its debtcaused investors to claw up bargains. The Dow Jones closed higher by 69pts or0.6pct after being down 236pts at one stage. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7pct while theNasdaq gained 27pts or 1.1pct.

US treasuries fell on Monday (yields higher) as investors switched from bonds toequities in late trade. US 2yr yields rose by 3pts to 0.209pct and US 10yr yields roseby 3pts to 1.948pct.

The US dollar slumped against the Euro and commodity currencies in late trade asUS shares rebounded and investors switched from safe-haven assets. The Euro rosefrom US$1.3555 to near the day's highs of US$1.3680, before ending the US sessionnear US$1.3670. The Aussie dollar fell from highs around US103.80c to US102.55c,but rebounded in late US trade to end the session near US103.40c. And the Japaneseyen eased from 76.70 yen per US dollar to JPY77.35, ending US trade at JPY77.25.

Global crude oil prices were mixed on Monday. Nymex crude oil rose by US95c or1.1pct to US$88.19 a barrel and London Brent crude fell by US52c or 0.5pct toUS$112.25 a barrel.

Base metal prices were mixed on the London Metal Exchange on Monday. Nickelrose 2.2pct, zinc rose 1.2pct and aluminium rose 0.2pct but other metals fell up to1.1pct. But the gold price fell on Monday as investors booked profits to cover losses inother markets. The Comex December gold price fell by US$46.20 an ounce or 2.5pctto US$1,813.30.

Ahead: In Australia, the NAB business survey is due and ABARES releases its CropReport. In the US, export and import prices & weekly chain store sales data are due.

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 00:55

US TREASURY BONDS

2yr (lhs)

10yr ( rhs)

%%

1100

1125

1150

1175

1200

1100

1125

1150

1175

1200

08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 00:55

US EQUITIES

S&P500 (lhs)

S&P500 Futures (rhs)

76.0

77.0

78.0

1.350

1.360

1.370

08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 00:55

USD

EUR/USD (lhs)

USD/JPY (rhs)

0.750

0.760

0.770

1.020

1.030

1.040

1.050

08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 00:55

AUD

AUD/USD (lhs)

AUD/EUR (rhs)

AUD/USD 1.0318 -1.5% Australia 3.77 -0.10 CRB Index 334.07 -0.1% Dow 11,061 0.6%

NZD/USD 0.8185 -0.4% NZ 4.47 -0.04 GS Index NA NA S&P 500 1,162 0.7%

EUR/USD 1.3603 -0.4% US 1.95 0.03 Aluminium $/t 2337 0.20% NASDAQ 2,495 1.1%

USD/JPY 76.97 -0.8% AU less US 1.82 Copper $/t 8732 -0.77% FTSE 5,130 -1.6%

GBP/USD 1.5860 -0.1% NZ less US 2.52 Lead $/t 2445 -1.14% Shanghai NA NA

USD/CHF 0.8854 0.2% Nickel $/t 21587 2.17% H.Seng 19,031 -4.2%

AUD/NZD 1.2605 -1.1% 3mth 4.87 -0.02 Zinc $/t 2193 1.19% Nikkei 8,536 -2.3%

AUD/JPY 79.42 -2.3% 3yr 4.11 -0.17 Gold $/o 1835.6 0.2% ASX200 4,039 -3.7%

AUD/EUR 0.7585 -1.1% 5yr 4.46 -0.16 WTI Oil $/b 88.19 1.1% NZSX50 3,264 -1.8%

AUD Swap Rates (%)

EquitiesCurrencies 10 Yr Bond Yields (%) Com modities


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Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

2

Economics: Preview

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND

Tuesday 13 September

NZ Economic Survey of Manufacturing, QII, q%ch, (2.5 prev)

Manufacturing volumes increased strongly over QI. Sales volumesincreased 2.5% (excluding dairy and meat) and StatsNZ reported thatthe increase was relatively broad-based across industries.Meanwhile, non-food related manufacturing production within GDPrecorded a 4.4% over QI. The increase was impressive given thedisruption to many Canterbury based manufacturers from theFebruary earthquake.

We expect further growth in manufacturing production over QII.Manufacturing confidence remained upbeat, partly supported by thecompetitive exchange rate for exporters focussed on Australia.Meanwhile, the recovery in domestic activity points to improveddemand for non-export manufacturers as well.

25

35

45

55

65

M ar-03 M ar-05 M ar-07 M ar-09 M ar-11

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

GDP EX-FOOD MANUFACTURING

& CONFIDENCE

Manufacturing

PMI Survey

GDP Ex-Food Manufacturing

Production (rhs)

diff

index%

Source: Stats NZ

Sometime this week

REINZ house sales - August

Previous housing turnover: -1.9% mom, s.a.

The underlying picture of the market remains of a very gradual pick-up in New Zealand housing market activity. Nationwide housingturnover edged slightly lower in July on a seasonally-adjusted basis.As expected, there was a recovery in turnover in Canterbury over Julyfrom the sharp drop in the wake of the earthquakes in the previousmonth. Outside of Canterbury, there are some signs of softening inhousing turnover, although poor weather over the month may havecontributed to this.

Nonetheless, median days to sell continued to edge lower, indicatingsome tightening in the housing market. We expect housing turnoverremained around current levels in August. 2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Dec-00 Dec-02 D ec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10

200

600

1000

1400

1800

REINZ N at ional

Sales ex

Canterbury (LHS)

NZ DWELLING SALES(seasonally adjusted)

REINZ Canterbury

sales

NAB Business confidence and the Australia Manpower Survey are due today.

INTERNATIONAL

Tuesday 13 SeptemberUK CPI, Aug, m/y%ch (0.0/ 4.4 prev)

UK CPI inflation is still comfortably in the 4%-5% range and hasrecently been drifting higher. The latest Bank of England InflationReport projections still suggest that CPI inflation is expected to headup towards the 5% mark before turning back lower next year. Thereasons for the upward drift in the inflation rate remain familiar baseeffects from the VAT increase and rising food and energy prices.

0

2

4

6

0

2

4

6

Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

UK INFLATION%pa

BoE's2.0%

target

%pa

Headline CPI

Core CPI

BoE'sforecast


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3

Economics: Review

Australia and New Zealand

NZ Wholesale Trade Survey QII.

QII NZ Wholesale Trade Survey showed sales increased 2.2% overthe quarter. Strong increases in wholesale activity of motor vehicles,commissioned-based sales and other goods underpinned the lift overthe quarter.

However, looking at the data on basis similar to GDP, the increase inwholesale trade was more muted, up 0.8%.

Once taking account of price movements (from the PPIs) our

indicator suggests that production volumes actually declined by 2%.The result is weaker than we had anticipated, and has led us tofurther revise down our QII GDP forecast. We are currentlyexpecting 0.4% GDP growth in QII. The final large piece of GDP-related data, the Economic Survey of Manufacturing, is due today.We are expecting to see 2% growth in non-food manufacturingvolumes.

AU Trade Balance July

The July trade surplus provided another sign of the differentspeeds, or growth trends, in the Australian economy. The miningsector is facing strong demand and high global prices. Mining relatedexport volumes are expected to keep rising steadily.

Exports of Goods and Services (G&S) fell marginally, by 1% or$224m to $26.1bn in July. Non rural goods fell by 4% ($724m) andrural goods fell by 1% ($41m). Non monetary gold rose 82%($596m). Imports of G&S fell by 1% ($232m) to $24.3bn.Intermediate and other merchandise goods imports fell $513m (6%),capital goods rose $135m (3%) and non monetary gold rose $22m(6%). Consumption goods rose $166m (3%).

The monthly services deficit fell to $713m in July, from $833m inJune. The services deficit was $461m in July 2010. It is growing asmore Australians travel overseas, widening the gap betweenoverseas departures and arrivals. The monthly travel balance islikely to shift into deficit in the next few months.

RBNZ view

The RBNZ suggests that current interest rate levels would not be needed much longer. We expect the RBNZ to remove itsinsurance cut in QIV 2011.

RBA view

The QII CPI confirmed the inflation trend has turned up. Rate rises are likely. We expect a rate rise in February. The cashrate is expected to reach 5.50% by 2013.


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4

US & CANADA

United States

No major releases. European Central Bank governing council member Athanasios Orphanides said that the US economyhas experienced a "growth slowdown, but the consensus view is not that of a recession.

US Department of Agriculture report: The most recent supply and demand projections from the US government show thelowest US corn yield since 2005, confirming concerns that summer weather problems really hurt the crop. The report movedprojected season average corn prices up another 5% from the August estimate. US soybean production was slightlyincreased with ending stocks increasing from previous estimates. US milk production for the year was raised again despite high feeding costs because herd size continues to increase. Those estimates showed ending stocks of dairyproducts to increase next year.

Canada

There was no major data in Canada.

FOMC viewGiven the loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly in the labour market, we expect the Fed to maintain the size ofits balance sheet until early 2013. The first Fed funds hike is not expected until mid 2013.

Bank of Canada view

Softness in the US economy is likely to affect the Canadian economy given the strong trade ties. We expect the BoC toremain on hold until mid 2012 before it embarks on a slow and steady removal of policy accommodation.

EUROZONE & UK

Eurozone

Italy sold 7.5bn of one year bonds at its auction overnight. The Italian Treasury Ministry says the average interestrate for a 12-month bond in Monday's auction rose to 4.153 % from 2.959 % in last month's offer. This is the highestyield on record since September 2008. For 3-month bonds, the borrowing rate rose from an average of 1.034 % inMarch's auction to 1.907 % in Monday's. This is also despite the ECB announcing it had bought 13.96Bio ingovernment bonds last week via its Securities Markets Programme (SMP). This compares with 13.3BIo the weekbefore. The 10 year Italian and Spanish government bonds are now at 5.50 % and 5.22 % respectively, slowlycreeping back up from the sub-5% levels the ECB action initially pushed them down to. This morning sentiment wasbuoyed by a FT story that Italy has asked China to buy its debt.

United Kingdom

No major releases.

Bank of England view

The stance of the MPC has shifted; elevated inflation does not appear overly concerning. Given the subdued outlook forthe UK economy, we expect the BoE to remain on hold until QIII 2012.

ECB viewThe recent deterioration in Eurozone economic indicators suggests that the ECB will pause its process of monetary policynormalisation. We expect the ECB to remain on hold until QII 2012.


5/11



5

CHINA & JAPAN

Japan

In response to the recent natural disasters, the Bank of Japan has implemented further quantitative easing measures.Monetary policy in Japan is likely to remain accommodative for some time.


6/11



6

The Week Ahead

Calendar - Australasia, Japan and China

Time Forecast

Date AEST Econ Event Period Unit Last Market CBA

Mon 12Sep 09:50 JP BOJ to publish minutes of August. 4-5 board meeting

11:30 AU Trade balance Jul AUD bn 2.1 ~ 2.0

Tue 13 Sep 08:45 NZ Food prices Aug m%ch 2.0 ~ ~

08:45 NZ Manufacturing activity QII q%ch 2.9 ~

08:45 NZ Manufacturing activity volume s.a. QII q%ch 1.9 1.0 ~

10:00 NZ QV house prices Aug y%ch -0.4 ~ ~

11:30 AU NAB business confidence Aug Index 2.0 ~ ~

11:30 AU NAB business conditions Aug Index -1.0 ~ ~

Wed 14Sep ~ AU

CBA releases Viewpoint report on naturaldisasters ~ ~ ~

~ ~

10:30 AU MI/WBC consumer confidence Sep m%ch -3.5 ~ ~

11.30 AU Dwelling commencements QII q%ch 2.7 ~ -2.0

14:30 JP Industrial production Jul F m%ch

y%ch

0.6

-2.8

~

~

~

~

14:30 JP Capacity utilization Jul m%ch 5.2 ~ ~

Thu 15 Sep 07:00 NZ RBNZ official cash rate Sep % 2.5 2.5 2.5

07:00 NZ RBNZ monetary policy statement Sep ~ ~ ~ ~

08:30 NZ Business NZ PMI Aug Index 53.2 ~ ~

Fri 16 Sep 10:01 CH China manpower survey 4Q % 19.0 ~ ~

11:00 NZ ANZ consumer confidence index Sep Index 113.3 ~ ~

11:00 NZ ANZ consumer confidence Sep m%ch 3.6 ~ ~


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7

Calendar North America & Europe

Please note all days and times are UK time, not local release day/times

UK Forecast

Date Time Econ Event Period Unit Last Market CBA

Mon 12Sep 14:30 EC ECB announces bond purchases

21:00 US Fed's Fisher speaks on monetary policy in Dallas

Tue 13 Sep 00:01 UK RICS house price balance Aug % -22.0 ~ ~

09:30 UK Visible trade balance Jul mn -8,873 -8,700 ~

09:30 UK CPI Aug y%ch 4.4 4.5 ~

09:30 UK Core CPI Aug y%ch 3.1 2.9 ~

09:30 UK RPI Aug m%ch -0.2 0.6 ~

13:30 US Import price index Aug m%ch 0.3 -0.7 ~

Wed 14Sep 08:15 SZ Producer and import prices Aug m%ch -0.7 -0.4

~

09:30 UK Claimant count rate Aug % 4.9 5.0 ~

09:30 UK Jobless claims change Aug 000 37.1 35.0 ~

10:00 EC Industrial production Jul m%ch -0.8 1.6 ~

13:30 CA Capacity utilization rate QII % 79.0 ~ ~

13:30 US Producer price index Aug y%ch 7.2 6.4 ~

13:30 US PPI ex food & energy Aug y%ch 2.5 2.6 ~

13:30 US Advance retail sales Aug % 0.5 0.2 ~

13:30 US Retail sales less autos Aug % 0.5 0.2 ~

15:00 US Business inventories Jul % 0.3 0.5 ~

Thu 15 Sep 08:00 EC ECB's Bini Smaghi speaks in Rome

08:15 SZ Industrial Production QII q%ch -9.2 2.3 ~

08:30 SZ Swiss Central Bank holds monetary policy assessment

08:30 SZ SNB 3-month LIBOR target rate Sep % 0.0 0.0 0.0

09:30 UK Retail sales ex auto fuel Aug m%ch 0.2 ~ ~

09:30 UK Retail sales w/auto fuel Aug m%ch 0.2 -0.3 ~

10:00 EC CPI - core Aug y%ch 1.2 1.2 ~

10:00 EC CPI Aug y%ch 2.5 2.5 ~

10:00 EC Employment QII q%ch 0.1 ~ ~

13:30 CA Manufacturing sales Jul m%ch -1.5 1.2 ~

13:30 US CPI Aug y%ch 3.6 3.6 ~

13:30 US CPI ex food & energy Aug y%ch 1.8 1.9 ~


8/11



8

13:30 US Empire manufacturing Sep Index -7.72 -2.95 ~

13:30 US Initial jobless and continuing claims Sep 000 ~ ~ ~

13.45 US Feds Bernanke gives brief remarks at risk conference

14:15 US Industrial production Aug m%ch 0.9 0.1 ~

14:15 US Capacity utilization Aug % 77.5 77.5 ~

15:00 US Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey Sep Index -30.7 -15.0 ~

17:30 EC ECB's Stark speaks in Vienna

19:00 ECTrichet Speaks at Eurofi Forum inWroclaw, Poland

Fri 16 Sep 09:00 EC ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo Speaks in Sofia

10:00 EC Trade balance s.a. Jul bn -1.6 ~ ~

11:30 EC EU Finance Ministers, Ce tral Bankers meet in Wroclaw, Poland

14:00 US Net long-term TIC flows Jul USD bn 3.7 ~ ~

14:55 USUniversity of Michigan consumerconfidence Sep P Index 55.7

56.3 ~

17:00 US Flow of funds ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


9/11



9

P


10/11



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Commonwealth Bank Economics Daily Alert 09-13-2011

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Transcript of Commonwealth Bank Economics Daily Alert 09-13-2011