31 MAR – 04 APRIL 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS

Gold turned higher after touching six-week lows under $1,300 an ounce on Friday, but

marked its second straight weekly decline as an improving U.S. economic outlook

lifted the dollar and bolstered appetite for risk. Bullion has been volatile and has

dropped about $100 an ounce from a six-month high in the last nine trading sessions

on declining geopolitical tensions, strong U.S. economic data and comments by

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that interest rates could rise in the first half of

2015.

Low interest rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion

above other assets, had been an important factor driving bullion higher in recent

years. Spot gold fell to its lowest since Feb. 12 at $1,285.34 an ounce in earlier dealing

before rebounding to trade up 0.3 percent at $1,294.16 by 2:40 p.m. EDT (1840 GMT).

Bullion made a 3-percent weekly fall. The next focus for the market will be the March

nonfarm employment report due next Friday, which will give clues on the strength of

the economy. As a gauge of investor interest, holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the

world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged from

Thursday after two straight days of outflows.

West Texas Intermediate crude reached a three-week high as U.S. consumer

spending rose in February by the most in three months. Brent gained on concern that

tension in Ukraine will escalate. WTI advanced for the fifth time in six days.

Household purchases, which account for almost 70 percent of the economy, climbed

0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said. Russia massed troops along the Ukraine

border after annexing Crimea and rejected a United Nations resolution condemning

that takeover. The economy will continue to forge ahead. There is a lot of concern

about what’s going on in Ukraine and Russia’s possible incursions.WTI for May

delivery rose 39 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $101.67 a barrel on the New York

Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since March 7. Trading was 33 percent

below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices, which gained 2.2 percent this

week, are up 3.3 percent this quarter. Brent for May settlement increased 24 cents,

or 0.2 percent, to end the day at $108.07 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures

Europe exchange. Prices rose 1.1 percent this week, paring the quarterly decline to

2.5 percent. The European benchmark’s premium to WTI narrowed 15 cents to $6.40.

WTI Oil Advances

to Three-Week

High on U.S.

Economic Data.

Copper futures

gain 0.12% on

positive global

cues.

Tracking a firm global trend, copper prices advanced 0.12 per cent to Rs 401.75 per kg

in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions.

Besides, increased demand from consuming industries in the spot market supported

the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in April edged up

by 50 paise, or 0.12 per cent to Rs 401.75 per kg in business turnover of 1,658 lots.

Similarly, the metal for delivery June traded higher by 45 paise, or 0.11 per cent to Rs

405.95 per kg in 62 lots.

Zinc prices went marginally up by 0.13 per cent to Rs 118.75 per kg in futures trade

today as speculators enlarged their positions, supported by pickup in demand in the

spot market.

Market analysts attributed the rise in copper in futures trade to a firming global trend

on concern that supplies from mines will trail forecasts amid speculation that demand

may increase in China, the biggest user of industrial metals. Meanwhile, copper for

delivery in three months added 0.7 per cent to 6,604.50 dollar a metric tonne on the

London Metal Exchange.

Gold bounces

from 6-week

lows, marks

second weekly

loss.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Mar 31 7:15pm Chicago PMI 59.2 59.8

7:25pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Apr 1 7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.5

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.2

7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%

7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.3 45.1

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 59.2 60.0

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.8M 15.3M

Apr 2 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 192K 139K

7:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.3% -0.7%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.6M

Apr 3 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -24.4%

6:00pm Trade Balance -38.3B -39.1B

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 319K 311K

6:30pm Final Services PMI 55.5 55.5

7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.5 51.6

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage -57B

Apr 4 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 196K 175K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.6% 6.7%

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.4%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28075 27340 26735 28750 29425 30000

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

42400 40650 38500 44510 46050 47880

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week showed

downward movement and broke

upward channel pattern on lower side,

also took support of its important level

of 28050. Now, if it sustains at lower

levels and trades below 28000 then

bearishness may take it towards the

support level of 27350. On other hand

if some correction occurs on higher

side then 29000 will play vital role,

above which it may take resistance of

29750.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 28050 for the targets of 27350-

27000 with stop loss of 29000.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER showed continuous selling

since last ten consecutive sessions with

loss of more than 9 percent in two

weeks but took important support of

42400. Now, if it sustain below 42400

then next support will be seen around

40500. On higher side 44000 will act as

important resistance level maintaining

above which may lead it towards the

next resistance level of 45000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 43800 for

targets of 45000-45700, with stop loss of

42000.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5955 5800 5640 6160 6330 6550

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

391.80 379.80 366.35 408 421.50 435.60

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily chart witnessed

consolidation phase and closed

around its important resistance level

of 408. Now, if it maintains above 408

then only some correction may be

seen on higher side upto the

resistance level of 420. On other hand

if it trades below the support level of

390 then further bearishness can be

seen which may drag it towards the

next support level of 375.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

above 6150 for the target of 6300, with

stop loss of 5950.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement due to dollar

weakness and unable to closed above

23.6% retracement level i.e. 6145. If

the downward movements continues

then it may find support in the range of

6000-5950. On other hand if global

cues support then strength can be

seen if it sustains and close above 6150

then it may lead towards 6330.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 410, with stop loss of 399 for the

targets of 420-425.

PIVOT TABLE

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