Commodity Trading Tips for Beginners

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  • 05 JAN 09 JAN 2015

    W E E K L Y

    R

    E

    P

    O

    R

    T

    Blow by Blow

    On

    Bullions,

    Base metals,

    Energy

    WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

  • MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold drifted lower as global prices eased a bit in thin trade today. Near

    termdemand worries are weighing on the yellow metal. COMEX Gold dropped around

    $20 in intradaymoves as yearend drew closer. The yellow metal tested near two week

    highs of around $1210per ounce earlier in the week but an overwhelming rally in the

    US dollar capped the gainsfor the metal. Prices dropped under $1200 per ounce mark

    and fell in the last tradinghours of the calendar year 2014 as US dollar strengthened

    further. The metal currentlyquotes at $1182.30 per ounce, down $1.80 per ounce on

    the day. MCX Gold futures aretrading at Rs 26623 per 10 grams, down Rs 77 per 10

    grams on the day.India gold imports have moderated in last few weeks after the surge

    in festive seasonduring Ocotber-November. In the first half of December, gold imports

    were at 22 tonnes. Inthe previous month, gold imports stood at 151 tonnes, All India

    Gems and JewelleryFederation stated, according to media reports. The imports had

    surged seven times over theyear to around 150 tonnes in November 2014. However,

    the current period is consideredslightly lax for the physical demand and the tempo in

    retail purchases would be slow incoming days, keeping a tab on spot prices. purchases

    of American Eagle gold coin drop of around 39%.

    Oil fell to the lowest since mid-2009 amid growing supply from Russia and Iraq and

    signs of manufacturing weakness in Europe and China.Futures headed for a sixth

    weekly loss in New York and London. Oil supplies in Iraq and Russia surged to the

    highest level in decades in December, according to data from both countries

    governments. Euro-area factory output expanded less than initially estimated in

    December. A manufacturing gauge in China, the worlds second-largest oil consumer,

    fell to the weakest level in 18 months, government data showed yesterday.China

    PMI was more of the same while we are seeing weaker than expected PMI in

    Europe, Ole Sloth Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by e-

    mail. This adds to the support for the dollar. So we are kicking off 2015 with a strong

    dollar and weak oil theme.Oil slumped 46 percent in New York in 2014, the steepest

    drop in six years and second-worst since trading began in 1983, as U.S. producers and

    the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ceded no ground in their battle

    for market share. OPEC pumped above its quota for a seventh month in December

    even as U.S. output expanded to the highest in more than three decades.

    Oil Trades at 5

    1/2-Year Low After

    Russia, Iraq Boost

    Supplies.

    Copper Heads for

    Third Weekly

    Drop on Weaker

    China, Europe

    Data.

    Copper headed for a third weekly decline, the longest streak since October, as a gauge

    of manufacturing in China slid to the lowest in 18 months and euro-area data was

    weaker than expected.Chinas official Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 50.1 in

    December from 50.3 in November, according to data released yesterday. A private

    PMI reading for the worlds largest metals user dropped to 49.6 earlier this week, the

    lowest in seven months. A figure below 50 signifies contraction. Euro-area

    manufacturing expanded less than initially estimated in December.

    Chinas PMI is a sign of weak growth momentum, Nomura International Plc analysts

    including Wendy Chen said in a research note e-mailed today. With no inflation

    pressure, we expect more policy easing this quarter, they said.

    Copper for delivery in three months dropped 0.5 percent to $6,271 a metric ton by

    11:05 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The metal fell 14 percent in 2014, the

    biggest annual loss in three years. Prices are down 0.5 percent this week. In New York,

    copper futures for March rose 0.1 percent to $2.8285 a pound.

    Near Term

    Demand Worries

    Weigh On Gold.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

    DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

    Jan 5 All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.9M 17.2M

    Jan 6 8:15pm Final Services PMI 53.8 53.6

    8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.2 59.3

    8:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.3% -0.7%

    Jan 7 6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 227K 208K

    7:00pm Trade Balance -42.3B -43.4B

    9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M

    Jan 8 12:30am FOMC Meeting Minutes

    5:00am FOMC Member Evans Speaks

    6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.7%

    7:00pm Unemployment Claims 291K 298K

    9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -26B

    Jan 9 1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 15.1B 13.2B

    7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 241K 321K

    7:00pm Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.8%

    7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.4%

    8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.4%

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    26500 26280 26057 27109 27500 27800

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    35800 34500 33450 37350 38600 40100

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed sideways

    movement, tested the support level of

    26500 and also found support of

    trendline. Now, if it is able to sustain

    above 27300 then next resistance level

    is seen around 27800. On other hand if

    it maintain below 26500 then bearish

    movement may drag it towards the

    next support level of 26000.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to SELL

    below 26500 for the targets of 26000

    with stop loss of 27300.

    PIVOT TABLE

    G O L D

    PIVOT TABLE

    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

    sideways movement last week, found

    support around 35830 . Now, if it

    sustain above 37300 then next

    resistance is seen in the range of

    39300-40000. On lower side maintain

    below 35830 then next support is seen

    around 34500 closing below the

    important support of 34500 drag it to

    recent bottom of 33500.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to sell below 35800 for

    the target of 33500, with stop loss of

    38000.

  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    3370 3120 2885 3765 4060 4350

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    394.10 389.80 385.40 404.70 410.90 418.30

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed bearish

    movement and closed below 400.

    Important trendline has been broken

    and its also look like a small head and

    shoulder and it is closed below the

    neckline of head and shoulder now if it

    is sustain below 400 then it will drag

    towards next important support of

    390. On the other hand immediate

    resistance is seen near 411 and closing

    above 411 drag it towards 418.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

    sell below 3370 for the target of 3100,

    with stop loss of 3550.

    PIVOT TABLE

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil last week break the

    important support of 3500 and

    maintain below it. Now, the next

    important support is 3370 if it sustain

    below 3370 then bears may again

    active and find next support around

    3100. If some correction occurs and

    maintains above 3500 then 3800 to

    4000 range will act as major resistance

    for it.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the

    target of 390.

    PIVOT TABLE

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