1

1

COMMODITIES

Sectoral Report, 2009

National Institute of Agricultural Extension Management (MANAGE) Hyderabad

2

2

TABLE OF CONTENT

Sl. no.

Particulars Page no.

1 Introduction 3

2 Evolution of commodity markets 4

3 Market Data 4

4 International commodity trading 5

5 Structure of commodity markets in India 7

7 List of Exchanges in India 8

8 NCDEX 8

9 MCX 9

10 NMCE 10

11 Spot Exchanges 11

12 Weather Trading in India 16

13 Policy Liberalization 17

14 Changes in market 17

15 Issues and challenges 18

16 Conclusion 21

17 Annexure 22

3

3

Commodity market in India

Introduction

A commodity is anything for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative

differentiation across a market. One of the characteristics of a commodity good is that its price

is determined as a function of its market as a whole. Well-established physical commodities

have actively traded spot and derivative markets. Generally, these are basic resources and

agricultural products such as iron ore, crude oil, coal, ethanol, sugar, coffee beans, soybeans,

aluminium, rice, wheat, gold and silver. The gradual evolution of commodity market in India has

been of great significance for our country's economic prosperity. In the Indian commodity

market there are so many varieties of products including agricultural products like rice, wheat,

barley etc; energy products like coal, petroleum, kerosene, gasoline; metals like copper, gold,

silver, aluminium and many more. Nowadays a wide range of agricultural products, energy

products, delicate commodities and metals can be sold under standardized contracts on

exchanges prevailing across the globe. Commodities have gained importance with the

development of commodity futures indexes along with the mobilization of more resources in

the commodity market

Commodity Futures market in India

Agriculture sector in India has always been a major field of government intervention since long

back. Government tries to protect the interests of the poor Indian farmers by procuring crops at

remunerative prices directly from the farmers without involving middlemen in between. But

government at the same time has restricted this traditional sector by fixing prices of crops at a

particular level and also by imposing several other restrictions on export and import of

agricultural commodities. All these restrictions prevented this sector to move out its traditional

features.

In the absence of government's intervention the role of futures market becomes very

significant. The demand and supply equation is reflected in the future prices of the commodities

and is of immense help to the farmers in terms of price discovery and price information. In this

way the system of futures market prevent Indian farmers from being directly exposed to the

unexpected price changes all of a sudden. It also helps towards evolving a better cropping

pattern in our country.

The option of hedging risk through future trade help the farmers to take the risk of innovations,

by using new high yielding varieties of seeds, fertilizers and new techniques of cultivation.

Futures Market acts as a smoothing agent between the present and future commodity market.

The presence of arbitragers and day traders in the market provide liquidity to the market and

help in price discovery. So the existence of a futures market is always good for any economy. It

opens up a new opportunity to people to protect themselves from unexpected risks.

4

4

Evolution of the commodity market in India

Market Data of commodities: (Value & Volume Basis)

MCX

2007 2008

Value (Rs. In Lakhs)

Volume (In 000’s) Unit Kg

Value (Rs In Lakhs)

Volume(In 000’s) Unit Kg

A) Ag. Commodity

1. Almond - - - -

2. Cardamom 415066.19 82890 290995.99 43954

3. Cashew Kernel 5.39 2.26 - -

4. Castor Seed 49455.67 241570 216.24 905

5. Chana 502121.10 2245070 577859.39 2262220

6. Coconut oil 2.08 4 - -

7. Coffee 130152.65 183619 78.438 87

8. Coriander - - 149235.88 160475

9. Cotton 12386.27 69.29(candy) - -

10. Guargum 4791.69 10200 3225.77 6940

11. Jeera 96784 87078 1786.02 1884

12. Jute 90992.58 671560 160854.09 1031820

13. Maize 78.21 1030 44.74 450

14. Masur 14.73 60 - -

15. Mentha oil 1625774.77 294029.64 847611.43 153008.28

16. Potato 1083804.72 183231130 89174.24 1804950

17. Rice 219.66 580 - -

18. Soybean 28028.10 179460 701.89 3020

19. Turmeric 203165.44 892020 432792.54 1381620

20. Wheat 354.97 3370 - -

1875 Bombay Cotton Trade

Association

1893 Bombay Cotton

Exchange

1900 Oilseed trade

Gujarat Vyapari Mandali

1913 Chamber of Commerce,

Hapur

1919 Calcutta Hesian

Exchange

1920 Future Trading of Bullions, Mumbai

1927 East India Jute & Hessian Ltd

1952 Forward Contract

Regulaction Act

1953 Forward Market

Commission

5

5

21. Mustard oil 1.74 4 - -

22. Urad 50657.06 176770 - -

B) Energy

1. ATF - - 52577.76 715.1(BBL)

2. Crude oil 42113266.31 1393881.3(BBL) 85947248.64 2050700.1(BBL)

3. Electricity - - - -

4. Furnace oil 308.80 2(MT)

5. Gasoline - - - -

6. Heating oil - - - -

7. Natural gas 2586980.10 866379.5(mmBtu) 3002186.10 788215.75(mmBtu)

C) Metal

1. Aluminums 707068.56 614990 587932.91 522753

2. Copper 45538228.51 15375506 40028093.61 14277796

3. Lead 7028066.77 5459080 7307302.47 8272065

4. Nickel 7940696.89 542437.25 4388282.77 505569

5. Sponge iron - - - -

6. Steel flat 232.10 0.9 (MT) 14.82 0.05(MT)

7. Steel long 1153.72 5.165(MT) 600.06 1.88(MT)

8. Tin 99017.07 15541 239366.58 33283

9. Zinc 24167623.03 17759545 13272104.48 15833965

D) Bullion

1. Gold 74786092.36 7901348.5(grms) 184054386.35 15042552.428

2. Silver 57424526.09 306790.07 83980721.19 393747.525

3. platinum - - 51334.27 7.75 (grms) 1879.5 (grms)

International Commodity Exchanges

Commodity Reference Exchange

Crude Oil NYMEX

Crude Palm Oil BMD

Cotton NYBOT

Sugar NYBOT

Coffee LAFFE

Base Metals LME

Gold CME

Wheat & Soybean CME

6

6

Chicago Board of Trade

The Chicago Board of Trade is a leading futures and futures-options exchange.

More than 3,600 CBOT member/stockholders trade 50 different futures and options products

at the CBOT by open auction and electronically.

The CBOT added a new category to its diverse product mix in 2001 with the launch of 100

percent electronic Gold and Silver futures contracts.

For decades, the primary method of trading at the CBOT was open auction, which involved

traders meeting face-to-face in trading pits to buy and sell futures contracts. But to better

meet the needs of a growing global economy, the CBOT successfully launched its first

electronic trading system in 1994.

Agricultural Commodities traded at CBOT are Wheat, Corn, Soyabean, Soyabean oil,

Soyabean meal, Soybean, Oats, Ethanol, Rough rice, mini corn, mini wheat and mini

Soyabean

London Metal exchange:

Established for over 130 years and located in the heart of The City of London,

The London Metal Exchange is the world’s premier non-ferrous metals market. It offers

futures and options contracts for aluminium, copper, nickel, tin, zinc and lead plus two

regional aluminium alloy contracts.

The LME is a highly liquid market and in 2007 achieved volumes of 93 million lots, equivalent

to $9,500 billion annually

In 2005 the Exchange launched the world’s first futures contracts for plastics.

ASX Limited

As one of the world’s top 10 listed exchange groups, measured by its market capitalisation,

ASX group was created through the merger of the Australian Stock Exchange and the Sydney

Futures Exchange.

It has domestic market capitalisation of $1.29 trillion & number of listed companies are 2226.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange:

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) (often called "The Chicago Merc or The Merc") is an

American financial and commodity derivative exchange based in Chicago.

The exchange demutualized in November 2000, went public in December 2002, and merged

with the Chicago Board of Trade in July 2007 to become CME Group Inc.

CME trades several types of financial instruments: interest rates, equities, currencies, and

commodities. It also offers trading in alternative investments such as weather and real

estate derivatives.

On Aug. 18, 2008 shareholders approved a merger with the New York Mercantile Exchange.

New York Board of Trade:

The New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Intercontinental

7

7

Exchange (ICE).

It is a physical commodity futures exchange located in New York City. It originated in 1870 as

the New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE).

Commodities traded on the exchange are Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Pulp (wood pulp), Sugar

(Domestic), Sugar (World), Orange juice (Frozen Concentrate).

Kansas City Board of Trade:

The Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) is a commodity futures and options exchange regulated

by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The primary products traded at the exchange are futures contracts on hard red winter wheat,

and the underlying option contracts. Due to its nutritional value, the hard red winter wheat

usually trades at a premium to CBOT soft red winter wheat.

Structure of Commodity Market in India

Forward Markets Commission (FMC) headquartered at Mumbai, is a regulatory authority which is

overseen by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution, Govt. of India. It is a statutory

body set up in 1953under the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952. " The Act provides that the

Commission shall consist of not less than two but not exceeding four members appointed by the Central

Government out of them being nominated by the Central Government to be the Chairman.

The functions of the Forward Markets Commission are as follows: 1) To advise the Central Government in respect of the recognition or the withdrawal of recognition from any association or in respect of any other matter arising out of the administration of the Forward Contracts(Regulation) Act 1952.

8

8

2) To keep forward markets under observation and to take such action in relation to them, as it may consider necessary, in exercise of the powers assigned to it by or under the Act. 3) To collect and whenever the Commission thinks it necessary, to publish Information regarding the trading conditions in respect of goods to which any of the provisions of the act is made applicable, including information regarding supply, demand and prices, and to submit to the Central Government, periodical reports on the working of forward markets relating to such goods; 4) To make recommendations generally with a view to improving the organization and working of forward market.

5) To undertake the inspection of the accounts and other documents of any recognized association or registered association or any member of such association whenever it considerers it necessary. Forward Markets Commission provides regulatory oversight in order to ensure financial integrity (i.e. to prevent systematic risk of default by one major operator or group of operators), market integrity (i.e. to ensure that futures prices are truly aligned with the prospective demand and supply conditions) and to protect & promote interest of customers /non-members.

The Forward Markets Commission prescribes following regulatory measures:

• Limit on net open position as on the close of the trading hours. Sometimes limit is also imposed on

intra-day net open position. The limit is imposed operator-wise, and in some cases, also member-wise.

• Circuit-filters or limit on price fluctuations to allow cooling of market in the event of abrupt upswing or

downswing in prices.

• Special margin deposit to be collected on outstanding purchases or sales when price moves up or down

sharply above or below the previous day closing price. By making further purchases/sales relatively

costly, the price rise or fall is sobered down. This measure is imposed only on the request of the

Exchange.

• Circuit breakers or minimum/maximum prices: These are prescribed to prevent futures prices from

falling below as rising above not warranted by prospective supply and demand factors. This measure is

also imposed on the request of the Exchanges.

• Skipping trading in certain derivatives of the contract, closing the market for a specified period and

even closing out the contract: These extreme measures are taken only in emergency situations.

There are 3 National Exchanges for enabling the purchase and sale of commodities, futures

and options. These are:

1. Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) located at Mumbai

2. National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) located Mumbai

3. National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. Located at Ahmadabad.

NCDEX:

NCDEX is a public limited company incorporated on April 23, 2003 under the Companies Act, 1956. It

obtained its Certificate for Commencement of Business on May 9, 2003. It commenced its operations on

December 15, 2003.NCDEX is a nation-level, technology driven de-mutualised on-line commodity

exchange with an independent Board of Directors and professional management - both not having any

vested interest incommodity markets. It is committed to provide a world-class commodity exchange

9

9

platform for market participants to trade in a wide spectrum of commodity derivatives driven by best

global practices, professionalism and transparency.

NCDEX is the only commodity exchange in the country promoted by national level institutions. This

unique parentage enables it to offer a bouquet of benefits, which are currently in short supply in the

commodity markets. The institutional promoters and shareholders of NCDEX are prominent players in

their respective fields and bring with them institutional building experience, trust, nationwide reach,

technology and risk management skills.

NCDEX is regulated by Forward Markets Commission. NCDEX is subjected to various laws of the land like

the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, Companies Act, Stamp Act, Contract Act and various other

legislations.

NCDEX is located in Mumbai and offers facilities to its members about 550centres throughout India. The

reach will gradually be expanded to more centres.

Promoter shareholders: Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural

Development (NABARD) and National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE).

Other shareholders: Canara Bank, CRISIL Limited (formerly the Credit Rating Information Services of India

Limited), Goldman Sachs, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited

(IFFCO) and Punjab National Bank (PNB).

NCDEX currently facilitates trading of following commodities –

Wheat, Barley, Cashew, Castor Seed, Chana , Chilli, Coffee - Arabica, Coffee -Robusta, Crude Palm Oil,

Cotton Seed Oilcake, Expeller Mustard Oil, Groundnut (in shell), Groundnut Expeller Oil, Guar gum, Guar

Seeds, Gur, Jeera, Jute sacking bags, Indian Parboiled Rice, Indian Pusa Basmati Rice, Indian Traditional

Basmati Rice, Indian Raw Rice, Indian 28.5 mm Cotton, Indian 31 mm Cotton, Masoor Grain Bold,

Medium Staple Cotton, Mentha Oil, Mulberry Green Cocoons, Mulberry Raw Silk, Mustard Seed, Pepper,

Potato, Raw Jute, Rapeseed-Mustard Seed Oilcake, RBD Palmolein, Refined Soy Oil, Rubber, Sesame

Seeds, Soybean, Yellow Soybean Meal, Turmeric, V-797 Kapas, Yellow Peas, Yellow Red Maize.

Metals –

Aluminum Ingot, Electrolytic Copper Cathode, Gold, Mild Steel Ingots, Nickel Cathode, Silver, Sponge Iron,

Zinc Ingot.

Energy –

Brent Crude Oil, Furnace Oil.

MCX

The exchange started operations in November 2003. MCX is a demutualised nationwide electronic multi

commodity futures exchange set up by Financial Technologies with permanent recognition from

Government of India for facilitating online trading, clearing & settlement operations for futures market

across the country. MCX offers futures trading in 55 commodities as on December 31, 2007, defined in

terms of the type of contracts offered, from various market segments including bullion, energy, ferrous

and non-ferrou smetals, oils and oil seeds, cereals, pulses, plantations, spices, plastics and fibers.

The exchange strives to be at the forefront of developments in the commodities futures industry and has

forged ten strategic alliances across the world, including with Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Chicago

Climate Exchange, London Metal Exchange, New York Mercantile Exchange, New York Board of Trade and

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, Berhad.

10

10

Key shareholders:

The Key shareholders in MCX are: State Bank of India and its associates (SBI), National Bank for

Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD),National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE), SBI Life

Insurance Co. Ltd ,Bank of India (BoI) , Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Corporation Bank, Canara

Bank, HDFC Bank, Benett Coleman & Company Limited , Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd. - an affiliate of Fidelity

International, ICICI Trusteeship Service Limited, IL&FS Trust Company Limited, Kotak group, Citibank

Strategic Holdings Mauritius Limited, Merrill Lynch Holdings and Financial Technologies of India Ltd.

NMCE

NMCE was the first Exchange to take up the issue of differential treatment of speculative loss. It was also

the first Exchange to enroll participation of high net-worth corporate securities brokers in commodity

derivatives market. It was the Exchange, which showed a way to introduce warehouse receipt system

within existing legal and regulatory framework. It was the first Exchange to complete the contractual

groundwork for dematerialization of the warehouse receipts. It is a zero-debt company; following widely

accepted prudent accounting and auditing practices. It has robust delivery mechanism making it the most

suitable for the participants in the physical commodity markets. It is the only Commodity Exchange in the

world to have received ISO 9001:2000 certification from British Standard Institutions (BSI). NMCE

facilitates electronic derivatives trading through robust and tested trading platform, Derivative Trading

Settlement System (DTSS). When order is placed on the exchange, the server at NMCE scans through the

orders posted on it from all its trading terminals. It then locates and matches the best counter-offers/bids

by maintaining anonymity of the counter-parties. Anonymity helps is eliminating formation of cartels and

other unfair practices, thereby protecting the efficiency of price-discovery at the Exchange. NMCE was

the first commodity exchange to provide trading facility through internet, through Virtual Private

Network (VPN).NMCE has also set up a Trade Guarantee Fund. Well-capitalized in-house clearinghouse

assumes counter-party risk of settlement. NMCE was the first to initiate process of dematerialization and

electronic transfer of warehoused commodity stocks. The unique strength of NMCE is its settlements via

a Delivery Backed System, an imperative in the commodity trading business. These deliveries are

executed through a reliable Warehouse Receipt System, leading to guaranteed clearing and settlement.

Salient feature:

First to get the ‘National’ status and be fully operational. Demutualised Corporate Structure leading to a

reliable, effective, impartial and rule-based management by professionals having no trade interest.

Convergence of all the offers and bids emanating from all over the country in a Single Electronic Order

Book of the Exchange ensuring equal access to all intermediaries. Participation of diverse interests like

Importers, Exporters, Growers, Brokers, Traders, etc., using an electronic trading system providing a fair,

efficient and transparent commodities market. Fair Trading Practice ensured through inbuilt checks and

balances in the System.

Benefits of NMCE

NMCE would bring about the converge of large-scale processors, traders, and farmers along with banks.

NMCE would provide a common ground for fixation of future prices of a number of commodities enabling

efficient price discovery/forecast. Hedging using different and diverse commodities would also be

possible with help of NMCE.

11

11

Benefits to Farmers

Efficient Price Discovery/Forecast made by the NMCE will enable farmers decide cropping pattern and

investment on inputs. Price risk management would be possible via NMCE Price Stability resulting from a

equilibrium in supply and demand for a commodity would be possible through NMCEWRS introduced for

trading in futures on the Exchange would lead to proper grading, standardization and scientific storage of

agricultural commodities resulting in value addition and better price realization to farmers. WR’s could be

discounted by Farmers with banks and used by farmers to raise finance quickly. The NMCE would help

provide liquidity and a viable secondary market for WR’s as a good financial instrument.

Promoters of NMCE:

Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC), National Agricultural Co Operative Marketing Federation of

India Limited (NAFED), Gujarat Agro Industries Corporation Limited (GAIC),

Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB), National Institute of Agricultural Marketing (NIAM),

Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL), Punjab National Bank (PNB).

Spot Exchanges

Introduction

Commodities have been traded in the spot market from time immemorial. The presence of too many

intermediaries in the system and an opaque price discovery mechanism has been the major disadvantage

of the present Spot Market system. More over arriving at the reference spot prices for the Futures

Exchanges has also been a problem due to non standardized nature of the Spot Markets. To do away with

the shortcomings of the Spot Markets the concept of Spot Exchanges has been developed.

Salient Features of Spot Exchanges:

Single day trading contracts

Intra day trading with settlement of obligation on net basis

All positions outstanding at end of the day resulting into compulsory delivery

Demat delivery facility available

Loan facility against pledge of demate / warehouse receipt

All deliverable futures contracts, including agri commodities, gold silver, non-ferrous metals and

wide number of other industrial products to be launched

Cash futures arbitrage opportunity

Regulations

Unlike the Futures Exchanges which are regulated by the Forward Market Commission the Spot

Exchanges comes under the jurisdiction of the respective state governments where the exchanges are set

up. The APMC act prevalent in the various states acts as a hurdle to the establishment of Spot Exchanges.

The Exchange operations are regulated in each state by the respective state governments and are be

12

12

subjected to various laws of the land like the Companies Act, Stamp Act, Contracts Act, APMC Act and

others which impinge on its working.

States in which Spot Exchanges are Operational:

Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In addition to these states since Bihar

and Kerala does not have APMC act, setting up Spot Exchanges in these states shall be relatively easier.

Business model of Spot Exchanges

The Spot Exchanges are distinctively different from the Future Exchanges as physical delivery of the

commodity is compulsory in Spot Exchanges. Unlike the Futures Exchanges the positions outstanding at

the end of the day, will result into compulsory delivery. But during the day, the transactions of offsetting

nature will be netted off and delivery will be executed only with respect to the net quantity outstanding

at the end of the day. All the terms relating to quality specifications, place of delivery, date of delivery

and other conditions will be specified by the Exchange in advance and all contracts executed on the

system would be on the basis of such terms only.

Spot Exchanges for Spot Trading (NEST) system has two types of markets: Normal Market

All orders which are of regular lot size or multiples thereof are traded in the Normal Market. For

commodities that are traded on the NEST system are deliverable in physical or in dematerialised mode.

Advantage of Spot Exchange over Spot Markets:

1. The seller has prior knowledge of the spot and futures prices at his own or at a nearby centre. This provides him with the option of selling his produce at the centre of his choice.

2. Since the goods are assayed prior to sale, he knows the grade of his produce and can gauge the true price of his product based on the benchmark grade price and the applicable premium or discount accorded based on the grade.

3. The Spot platform would offer excellent opportunities for arbitrage against future prices if the goods in the spot market conform to futures quality.

Auction Market:

In the Auction Market, auctions are initiated by the Exchange on behalf of trading members for

settlement related reasons.

Auctions are again of two types:

Forward Auction

ii. Reverse Auction

13

13

Seller

Pay Out

Pay in

Fig: Model of Forward Auction

SPOT Exchange Server

UDC

creator

Grading

gg

Warehouse

Weighment

Bridge

Listing On

SPOT

Excganges

Bank Print out of

Auction Page

Check

for

Margin

Bid Rejected

Delivery

Out

Instruction

Approval of

CM through

Token Login

COLLATERAL

MANAGER

Buyer

TM LOG IN

14

14

CARBON CREDITS – A MARKET OF THE 21st CENTURY

With growing concerns among nations to curb pollution levels while maintaining the growth in their

economic activities, the emission trading (ET) industry has come to life. And, with the increasing

ratification of Kyoto Protocol (KP) by countries and rising social accountability of polluting industries in

the developed nations, the carbon emissions trading is likely to emerge as a multibillion-dollar market in

global emissions trading. The recent surge in carbon credits trading activities in Europe is an indication of

how the emissions trading industry is going to pan out in the years to come.

Definition

One carbon credit is equivalent to one tone of carbon dioxide or its equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG).

Carbon credits are “Entitlement Certificates” issued by the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC) to the implementers of the approved Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

projects. The potential buyers of carbon credits shall be corporate in various Annexure I countries that

need to meet the compliance prevailing in their countries as per the Kyoto Protocol or those investors

who would like buy the credits and with the expectation of selling them at a higher price during the KP

phase (2008-12). The extension of KP shall be ratified by the current signatories of KP in their future

meetings essentially to curb GHG emissions into the environment.

Sources of demand & supply

The carbon credits can be either generated by project participants who acquire carbon credits through

implementation of CDM in Non Annexure I countries or through Joint Implementation (JI) in Annexure I

countries or supplied into the market by those who got surplus allowances with them. The buyers of

carbon credits are principally from Annexure I countries. They are:

Especially European nations, as currently European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the most

active market; Other markets include Japan, Canada, New Zealand, etc. The major sources of supply are

Non-Annexure I countries such as India, China, and Brazil.

Trading In Carbon Credits

Emissions trading (ET) is a mechanism that enables countries with legally binding emissions targets to buy

and sell emissions allowances among themselves. Currently, futures contracts in carbon credits are

actively traded in the European exchanges. In fact, many companies actively participate in the futures

market to manage the price risks associated with trading in carbon credits and other related risks such as

project risk, policy risk, etc. Keeping in view the various risks associated with carbon credits, trading in

futures contracts in carbon allowances has now become a reality in Europe with burgeoning volumes.

Currently, project participants, public utilities, manufacturing entities, brokers, banks, and others actively

participate in futures trading in environment-related instruments. The European Climate Exchange (ECX),

a subsidiary of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), remains the leading exchange trading in European

environmental instruments that are listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), previously known as

International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).

15

15

Price influencing factors

In Non-Annexure B countries (the developing countries) across the world, CER prices are influenced by

various factors including EUA prices, crude oil prices, electricity, coal, natural gas, the level of economic

activities across Annexure I countries, among others Some of the major price influencing factors:

Supply-demand mismatch

Policy issues

Crude oil prices

Coal prices

CO2 emissions

Weather/Fuel prices

European Union Allowances (EUAs) prices

Foreign exchange fluctuations

Global economic growth

Potential participants in carbon credits trading are as below

Hedgers

Producers

Intermediaries in spot markets

Ultimate buyers

Investors

Arbitragers

Portfolio managers

Diverse participants with wide participation objectives

Commodity financers

Funding agencies

Corporates having risk exposure in energy products

India as a potential supplier

India, being one of the leading generators of CERs through CDM, has a large scope in emissions trading.

Analysts forecast that its trading in carbon credits would touch US$ 100 billion by 2010. Currently, the

total registered CDM projects are more than 300, almost 1/3rd of the total CDM projects registered with

the UNFCCC. The total issued CERs with India as a host country till now stand at 34,101,315 (around 34

million), again around 1/3rd of the total CERs issued by the UNFCCC. In value terms (INR), it could be

running into thousands of crores.

Further, there has been a surge in number of registered projects in India. In 2007, a total of 160 new

projects were registered with the UNFCCC indicating that more than half of all registered projects in India

happened last year. It is expected that with increasing awareness this would go further up in the future.

The number of expected annual CERs in India is hovering around 28 million and considering that each of

these CERs is sold for around 15 euros, on an average, the expected value is going to be around Rs 2,500

crore. Various industries that have scope of generation of CERs:

16

16

Agriculture

Energy ( renewable & non-renewable sources)

Manufacturing

Fugitive emissions from fuels (solid, oil and gas)

Metal production

Mining and mineral production

Chemicals

Afforestation & reforestation

(Source: www.mcxindia.com)

Weather Trading in India

Weather is one of the most uncontrollable risks. Predict the amount of rainfall, snowfall, hurricanes,

tsunamis and droughts has been impossible. Weather risk affects businesses such as Agriculture,

construction, energy, entertainment, Governments, Insurance, manufacturing, offshore, retailing,

transportation, tourism.

Weather trading has been around since 1998.The first weather derivative trade was between Enron

Corporation and Koch industries. Most of the trades during that time were over the counter trades. It

started trading in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange sometime around 1999, and it started getting mass

popularity due to El Nino. Exchange trading helped the weather derivatives to get more popular,

transparent and reachable. According to the CME the weather derivatives traded were around thirty-two

billion USD in March 2008 with a high touching forty-five billion USD in 2006.

In an economy like India where agriculture has approx 17 % share in the Indian GDP, weather plays a very

important role. India is plagued each year by droughts, flash floods, thunder storms earth quakes and

flooding from torrential monsoonal rains. 60% of the workforce in the country is related to agriculture.

Not only that a major share of the electric power consumed in India is generated with the help of Hydro

Power Stations. Predictability of weather in India is very dismal and farmers are not ready for the

unexpected. Presently Indian exchanges are not allowed to trade weather derivatives because raindrops

and sunshine are intangible. The Indian parliament is working on a bill and within the next year or so a bill

will be passed which shall allow to trade natures intangibles. Presently the agrarian sector is served by

Index based weather Insurance. Multi commodity exchange of India (MCX) is planning to delve into the

market of weather trading. It is estimated that the weather trading market in India is presently valued at

one billion USD and assumed to expand to ten billion USD upon a year of operating. Hence it’s more than

a necessity to use high finance and try to design products which can marginalize these unpredictable and

uncontrollable forces of nature and tap into such a huge market. Weather Derivative still has not been

introduced in the Indian Market. It shall be introduced in the market by 2010.

The pricing of weather derivatives for the Indian context are inspired by the pricing concept used for the

weather derivatives traded in CME. The inputs for the calculations have been changed for e.g. instead of

17

17

degree days as used in the US and European markets rainy days have been used for the Indian Weather

Scenario.

The trading platform would allow one to buy or sell the value of a temperature and precipitation (rain)

index at a specific future date. While power companies such as Reliance Power can trade in high-degree

days (HDD) and low-degree days (LDD) contracts in Mumbai and estimate how much electricity could be

consumed during those days, farmers can use weather derivatives to hedge against poor harvests caused

by drought. Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS) — a weather insurance company — which is

launching the trading platform, estimates transactions worth $10 billion within a year.

(Economic Times, 15th March 2008)

Policy liberalization

Changes in future commodity markets after economic liberalization

The Kabra Committee recommended allowing futures trading in 17 commodity groups. It also recommended

strengthening of Forward Markets Commission and amendments to Forward Contracts (Regulation)

Act, 1952.

Government accepted most of these recommendations and futures trading have been permitted in all

recommended commodities except Bullion and Basmati Rice.

Additional staff was provided to the FMC and the post of Chairman was upgraded to the legal of

Additional Secretary to the Government of India.

The recommendations to set up Regional office at Lucknow, Delhi and Kochi were kept in abeyance for

the time being.

1960

forward trading baaned

exceptpepper,Turmeric,castor seed

and Linseed

1977

castor seed and linseed

futuresuspended

1980

forward trading allowed in potato and

gur

1985 forward trading on castor seed

allowed

1993

set up of Kabra committee to study

effects of future trading in context of

liberalization and globalization

18

18

An expert Committee on Agricultural Marketing headed by Shri Shankerlal Guru recommended linkage of

spot and forward markets, introduction of electronic warehouse receipt system, inclusion of more

and more commodities under futures trading and promotion of national system of warehouse

receipt.

The sub-group on forward and futures markets formed under the chairmanship of Dr. Kalyan Raipuria,

Economic Adviser, and Department of Consumer Affairs to examine the feasibility of implementing

the recommendations made by the Expert Committee chaired by Shankerlal Guru recommended

that the commodity specific approach to the grant of recognition should be given up.

The Government appointed a committee under the Chairmanship of Shri K.C. Misra, the then

Chairman of the FMC to prepare a road map for setting up the nationwide multi commodity

Exchange within the parameters laid down in the meeting held on 11.10.1999. Shri N. Nagarajan,

Economic Advisor, RBI and Shri Birendra Kumar, the then M.D., SBI Capital Markets were other

members of the Committee.

In the Budget speech made on 28th February 2002, the Finance Minister announced expansion of futures

and forward trading to cover all agricultural commodities. Future trading allowed in year 2003.

The Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment (FCRA) Bill, 2006

Abhijit Sen committee was set up to examine whether futures trading contributed to the unexpected spurt

in prices of agricultural commodities in 2006.

It submitted its report on March 2007 where it recommended not banning the future trading.

However wheat, urad, tur and rice trading was banned on 2007.

In May 2008 govt. suspended 4 commodities of agricultural origin from future trading those are: soyaoil,

chana, rubber and potato.

A 20 month old ban on futures trading in wheat has been lifted with polling coming to an end

across the country (May 15, 2009) .The wheat export is permitted subjected to a limit of 650000

tons up to 31st March 2010.

The ban on four farm commodities — chana, soy oil, potato and rubberis still in place.

A ban on trading of sugar was imposed recently by FMC which saw a major set back among

traders and has an impact on the prices too.

The Budget proposal on 06 July lifted commodity transaction tax (CTT) that has already hit the

volumes.

Issues & Challenges in Commodity Market

Even though the commodity derivatives market has made good progress in the last few years, the real issues

facing the future of the market have not been resolved yet. Agreed, the number of commodities allowed for

derivative trading have increased, the volume and the value of business has zoomed, but the objectives of

setting up commodity derivative exchanges may cannot be achieved and the growth rates witnessed may not

be sustainable unless these real issues are sorted out as soon as possible. Some of the main unresolved

chal lenges & issues are discussed below.

19

19

Efficiency

Efficiency, fairness and transparency are the hallmarks of any good exchange. This comes through efficiency of cost, efficient price discovery mechanism and a competitive spot market. An automated trading system is an enabler of efficient price discovery. Equally important is to create an efficient and guaranteed settlement mechanism. Identification of correct settlement prices is very important. A move from physical settlements to warehouse receipt based settlement mechanisms is required. This will also help to bring about liquidity by making the process of transfer easy, particularly for retail users and farmers. A paradigm shift from managing risk on a centralized basis to managing risk on an individual basis is required.

Quality Assurance

Quality assurance lends credibility and confidence to participants in commodity market exchange. This

comes through a commonly accepted quality grading and control system and attendant certification process.

Liquidity

The challenge is to create liquidity. This comes through the width and depth of the product-market domain

of the exchange. Commodity exchanges like MCX have the width in terms of products. But it has to build

depth by providing latitude for hedgers, arbitrageurs and speculators. To work through heterogeneous

microstructures of various commodities will be a very important challenge for commodity trading. At the

same time, it will need to provide the trading, clearing, risk management and settlement framework.

Depth would also come from a wider participation of not just industrial users but also retail users. This can

be brought about by information technology. MCX is well positioned to use technology to bring together

participants in the entire distribution chain. This will help efficient matching of orders, create audit trails and

minimize transaction errors.

Infrastructure

Infrastructure is the fourth challenge India has to create a national transportation, logistics and distribution

infrastructure for commodities. This is necessary to enable our country to emerge as a global power in

commodity exchanges. The national road transportation networks, port development to new warehousing

initiatives mark the beginning in this direction. This must be expanded to encompass new rural roads, new

ports, inland rail transportation, and modern warehouses and elaborate cold chain systems. They have to be

integrated by information technology based management systems. Infrastructure, is considered the biggest

challenge

The Warehousing and Standardization

For commodity derivatives markets to work efficiently, it is necessary to have a sophisticated, cost-effective,

reliable and convenient warehousing system in the country. Warehouses also need to be conveniently

located.

20

20

Cash versus Physical Settlement

It is probably due to the inefficiencies in the present warehousing system that only about 1% to 5% of the

total commodity derivatives trade in the country is settled in physical delivery. Today in practice, most

contracts are settled in cash but before maturity. There is a need to modify the law to bring it closer to the

widespread practice and save the participants from unnecessary hassles

Tax and Legal bottlenecks

There are at present restrictions on the movement of certain goods from one state to another. These need

to be removed so that a truly national market could develop for commodities and derivatives. Also,

regulatory changes are required to bring about uniformity in octroi and sales taxes etc. VAT has been

introduced in the country in 2005, but has not yet been uniformly implemented by all states. CTT has been

abolished in this current budget which is a encouragement for the market participants.

Lack of Economy of Scale

There are too many (3 national level and 21 regional) commodity exchanges. Though over 80 commodities

are allowed for derivatives trading, in practice derivatives are popular for only a few commodities. Again,

most of the trade takes place only on a few exchanges. All this splits volumes and makes some exchanges

unviable. This problem can possibly be addressed by consolidating some exchanges.

The Regulator

As the market activity pick-up and the volumes rise, the market will definitely need a strong and

independent regulator; similar to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) that regulates the

securities markets. Unlike SEBI which is an independent body, the Forwards Markets Commission (FMC) is

under the Department of Consumer Affairs (Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution) and

depends on it for funds. It is imperative that the Government should grant more powers to the FMC to

ensure an orderly development of the commodity markets. The SEBI and FMC also need to work closely with

each other due to the inter-relationship between the two markets.

Future prospect

Future prospect of commodity derivative trading is upbeat. Futures market size (both commodities and

securities) relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP at current prices) in the US is about 90%, in China about

85%, and in Brazil about 200%. Commodities derivatives trade value relative to GDP (at current price) in

India was 5.81 % in 2003-04, 20.14% in 2004-05 and it has gone up to 66 % during 2005-06. The commodity

futures trade has taken a big leap in the past two years. Likely participation of Banks, Mutual Funds and

Foreign Institutional Investors along with introduction of options trading after amendments to FCR Act,

1952, will boost the commodity futures trading further in the coming years.

21

21

Conclusion

India is one of the top producers of a large number of commodities, and also has a long history of trading in

commodities and related derivatives. The commodities derivatives market has seen ups and downs, but seems

to have finally arrived now. The market has made enormous progress in terms of technology, transparency

and the trading activity. Interestingly, this has happened only after the Government protection was removed

from a number of commodities, and market forces were allowed to play their role. This should act as a major

lesson for the policy makers in developing countries, that pricing and price risk management should be left to

the market forces rather than trying to achieve these through administered price mechanisms. The

management of price risk is going to assume even greater importance in future with the promotion of free

trade and removal of trade barriers in the world.

22

22

Analysis of agri commodities

In a market economy, price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. The study of supply

and demand is also known as the study of fundamentals or "Fundamental Analysis". To do a fundamental

analysis following equation is required for each and every crop.

The Commodity equation:

“O.S + P + I = C+ EX+ E.S”

Following are the main important factors which drive the demand and supply in the market,for

agricultural produces.

Seasonality – Kharif, Rabi & Summer

Supply & demand

Weather condition

Biotic and Abiotic factors

Substitutes- scope less

Varying qualities/varieties

Dispersed markets/ Price asymmetry

The factors those need to be considered while estimating supply are

Supply:

Sources of supply: Production, Beginning stocks

Trends in the supply

Shifting patterns in the supply

Economic and policy related issues- impact on supply

Imports

Carry forward stocks

Substitutes

Similarly while estimating demand the following factors are required to be taken into consideration

23

23

Demand

Major sectors of demand

Trends in the demand

Shifting patterns in the consumption

Economic and policy related issues- impact on demand

Exports

Old stocks

Substitutes – elasticity W.R.T Price

To predict price view for the year,

Statistically study the Y-o-Y changes in Stocks, Production, Consumption, Exports & Imports

Estimate Supply

Factors (Acreage, Weather, Yield, Raw material, Operational efficiency, Recovery rates) affecting supply

are considered & their correlation with supply is calculated and then supply has been estimated.

Estimate Demand

Factors (Economy growth, Population, Industrial performance, Sector performance, Performance of rival

markets) affecting demand are considered & their correlation with demand is calculated and then supply

has been estimated.

Using the demand and supply one can arrive at the ending stock and this can be used to speculate the

price that may prevail in the period for that particular commodity.

Technical analysis:

Apart from fundamental analysis technical analysis can also be done for the commodities considering the

price fluctuation that occurred during their trading sessions on the exchange platform. As price discounts

everything and it’s a strong believe in market that history repeats itself technical analysis also plays

important role in predicting prices and helps in buying and selling decisions. As fundamental analysis

shows how much should be the price technical analysis shows when and how long the prices are going to

prevail and what changes can be anticipated.

Moving averages, oscillators, MACD, RSI price volume index supports and resistances always help as a

guiding tool to take effective buying or selling decisions.

24

24

Cotton

Cotton is a creamy white soft fiber that is primarily used to manufacture textile and garments throughout

the world. Cotton is derived from around the seeds of the cotton plant. It’s processed to get natural

polymers and additionally cotton seeds are used for animal feed and oil and many variety of uses. As a

commodity is has got high demand across the globe.

Global production of cotton: 111.6 million bales (480 pounds each)

World’s largest producer China-32 million bales of (480 pounds each)

World exports and imports -32.8 million bales of (480 pounds each)

Major cotton-importing countries:

Name of the country Quantity imported in US 480 lbs bales China, 2.5 million bales

Pakistan, 900,000 bales

Turkey 667,000 bales

Major cotton-exporting countries:

Name of the country Quantity exported in US 480 lbs bales

India 4.75 million bales

United States 12.24 million bales

Brazil 2 million bales

Indian scenario:

India is the 2nd largest exporter of cotton and last year exported around 8.5 million bales and this year the

figures are down at 4.75 million bales. Production is anticipated to be 30.9 million bales of cotton this

year .With major producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Maharastra & Gujurat going for a good rate of

sowing the markets are expecting more quantity as compared to last year. With the export figures a little

reduced the prices are going to be low in Indian markets as compared to last year’s prices.

25

25

Balance sheet of cotton for India (2008-09)

COMMODITY: COTTON ( lakh bales of 170 kgs)

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09*

Beginning stock 40.5 29 40 24 21 72 52 47.5 43

Production 140 158 136 170 243 244 280 315 309

Import 22.13 25.26 17.67 7.21 12 4 5.53 6.5 7

Total Supply (i) 202.63 212.26 193.67 201.21 276 320 337.53 369 359

Domestic Consumption 173.03 171.76 168.83 177.1 195.03 217 232.03 241 230

Exports 0.6 0.5 0.83 12.11 9.14 47 58 85 50

Total Demand (ii) 173.63 172.26 169.67 189.21 204.17 264 290.03 326 280

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 29 40 24 21 72 56 47.5 43 60

Source: The Cotton Corporation of india ltd

Crop Calendar of cotton in India:

States Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Gujurat

Punjab

Haryana

Rajasthan

Andhra Pradesh

Maharastra

BARLEY

Barley is a cereal grain derived from the annual grass Hordeum vulgare. It serves as a major animal feed

crop, with smaller amounts used for malting (in beer and whisky) and in health food. In 2008 ranking of

cereal crops in the world, barley was fourth both in terms of quantity produced (153.8 million tons) and

in area of cultivation (566,000 km²).

World production

Commodity Global Production

Barley 153.8 million tones

Source-www.grains.org & www.ico.org

26

26

BARLEY

CONSUPTION PRODUCER IMPORTER EXPORT

1. Russia 1. Russia 1. Japan 1. Ukraine

2. Canada 2. Canada 2. Saudi Arabia 2. Australia

3. Ukraine 3. Turkey 3. Canada 3. Canada

INDIAN SCENARIO

The cultivation of barley in India is mainly concentrated in the areas of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Barley production in India is a mere 1.33 million tones out of a total grain production of 219 million tonnes in 2007-2008. In 2007-08, the total area for barley cultivation was 0.77 million hectares, while the production was estimated at 1.31 million tonnes. With an increased area in cultivation, it is believed that barley cultivation would accelerate in the near future. Although the feed portion would remain stable, the food, seed and industrial use would go up at a substantial rate.

Balance sheet of barley for India (2008-09) Source: Commodityindia.com

COMMODITY:Barley

Year 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Beginning stock 24 34 34 34 34 34

Production 1410 1300 1200 1220 1310 1204

Import 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Supply (i) 1434 1334 1234 1254 1344 1238

Domestic Consumption 1400 1300 1200 1220 1310 0

Exports 0 0 0 131 375 50

Total Demand (ii) 1400 1300 1200 1220 1310 1208

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 34 34 34 34 34 30

Crop calendar of Barley in India:

States Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

U.P

Rajasthan

Punjab

Haryana

Harvesting Sowing

27

27

Technical chart of barley future as traded on NCDEX (sept. fut)

COFFEE

Introduction

Coffee is a beverage obtained from coffee plant’s fruit called cherry. The coffee plant refers to any type of tree in

the genus madder family which is actually a tropical evergreen shrub that has the potential to grow up to 100 feet

tall Coffee is used as a beverage all over the world.

28

28

World Production

Commodity Global Production

Coffee 141 million tones

Source-www.grains.org & www.ico.org

Coffee

Consumption Production Import Export

U.S.A Brazil U.S.A Brazil

Germany Vietnam Germany Vietnam

Japan Colombia Italy Colombia

Indian Scenario India is the world’s fifth largest producer of coffee. India produces 2,74,000 tons of coffee annually

which constitutes of 94,000 tons and 1,80,000 tons of Arabica and Robusta coffee respectively.

Balance sheet of Coffee for India (2008-09) Source: Coffee Board, Indiastat

COMMODITY:Coffee

Year 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Beginning stock 17705 40110 47170 74920 88940 79190 77270

Production 275275 270500 275500 274000 288000 262000 272675

Import 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Supply (i) 292980 310610 322670 348920 376940 341190 349945

Domestic Consumption 68000 75000 80200 82300 84100 85800 91073.3

Exports 184870 188440 167550 177680 213650 178120 190253

Total Demand (ii) 252870 263440 247750 259980 297750 263920 281326

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 40110 47170 74920 88940 79190 77270 68619

CROP CALENDER OF COFFEE FOR INDIA

States Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Karnataka

Kerela

Tamil Nadu

Harvesting

29

29

SOYBEAN

Introduction:

Apart from the high yield potential, soybean possesses a very high nutritional value. It contains about

20 percent oil and 40 percent high quality protein. It is widely used in the industrial production of

different antibiotics.

World Production:

Soybean production constitutes around 55% of the total world production of oilseeds.

Commodity Quantity ( million tons )

Soybean 170-185

Soybean:

Production consumption Export Import

USA USA USA China

Brazil Brazil Brazil European Union

Argentina Argentina Argentina Japan

Indian scenario

The annual production of soybean in India is around 7.5 million tons. Madhya Pradesh being the leading producing state of India contributes to around 75% of the total Indian production and is also called the soybean bowl in India; it holds the 6th position in the leading consuming countries.

Balance Sheet of Soybean for India (2008-09)

COMMODITY: soybean

Year 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Beginning stock 19 65 90 106 53 83

Production 6800 5850 6300 7690 8200 7910

Import 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Supply (i) 6819 5915 6390 7796 8253 7993

Domestic Consumption 6515 5819 6315 7736 8165 7872

Exports 239 6 5 7 5 4

Total Demand (ii) 6754 5825 6320 7743 8170 7876

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 65 90 70 53 83 117

30

30

Technical chart of soybean fut as traded on NCDEX(sep fut)

WHEAT

Introduction: Wheat is the world’s most widely cultivated food crop. Wheat compares well with other important

cereals in its nutritive value. It contains more protein than other cereals. Mainly used as a food grain

across the world.

World Production:

Commodity Quantity ( million tons )

Wheat 684.6

Wheat:

Production Consumers Exporters Importers

China China USA Egypt

India India Russia Iran

USA Russia Canada Brazil

Indian scenario:

India's wheat production in 2007-08 was 78490 metric tonness, decreased from 75810 metric tonnes

in 2006-07. This year it is estimated to be 78.5 million tonnes.

31

31

Balance Sheet of Wheat for India (2008-09)

COMMODITY:

YEAR 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Beginning stock 23000 15700 6900 4100 2000 4500 3500 6410

Production 71810 65100 72150 68640 69350 75810 78490 78400

Import 34 8 8 32 6708 2000 3000 0

Total Supply (i) 94844 80808 79058 72772 78058 82310 84990 84810

Domestic Consumption 74294 68258 72838 69971 74358 73358 75850 77600

Exports 4850 5650 2120 801 200 200 50 50

Total Demand (ii) 79144 73908 74958 70772 74558 73558 75900 77650

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 15700 6900 4100 2000 3500 8752 9090 7160

CROP CALENDER OF WHEAT FOR INDIA

States Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Haryana

Punjab

Madhya Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh

Sowing

Harvesting

32

32

Technical chart of wheat future as traded on NCDEX:

Cardamom

Introduction: Cardamom is the Queen of Spices. Being the third most expensive spice in the world (after saffron and vanilla), it is one of the most exotic spices. Indian cardamom has a history as old as human civilization. Southern India and Sri Lanka are regarded as origin of this spice. Till recently India was the main Producer and exporter of this commodity, but of late Guatemala has emerged as a keen competitor to Indian cardamom in the international spice market. Indian cardamom is slightly smaller, but more aromatic. As a whole, cardamom is cultivated commercially in India, Sri Lanka Guatemala and Tanzania.

Global production of cardamom: 34000 Metric tons.

World’s largest producer of cardamom: Guatemala (20000 Metric tons).

World exports and imports: $ 30.5 million.

Major cardamom- importing countries:

Name of the country Quantity imported in metric tons Saudi Arabia 520

Singapore 450

India 320

33

33

Major cardamom- exporting countries:

Name of the country Quantity exported in metric tons Guatemala 1200

India 750

Sri Lanka 380

Indian scenario:

India is the second largest producer with an average production of 11000 to 12000 metric tons and the

second largest exporter with an average export of 650 to 780 metric tons. Indian cardamom is considered

as superior quality but in the international markets, India has always been out priced by Guatemala which

has negligible domestic consumption responsible for low pricing. At present the production is anticipated

to be12000 metric tons.

Balance sheet of Cardamom for India (2008-09):

Commodity Cardamom (in metric tons)

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Beginning stock 299 835 2189 2607 1500

Production 11415 12340 11235 9450 12000

Import 330 437 623 875 180

Total Supply (i) 12044 13612 14047 12932 13680

Domestic Consumption 10358 10560 10780 10932 11000

Exports 850 863 650 500 750

Total Demand (ii) 11208 11423 11440 11432 11750

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 835 2189 2607 1500 1930

Source : Commodityindia, spiceboard of india

Crop calendar of cardamom in India:

State Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Kerala

Karnataka

Tamil Nadu sowing

harvest

34

34

Technical chart of Cardamom future as traded on NCDEX(sep fut)

MAIZE

Maize is major grain derived from Zea mays. It serves as a major animal feed crop, input for starch

industries, with smaller amounts used in health food. It is also used in the production of ethanol which is

used as an alternative to gasoline. It provides nutrition to both humans (33.3%) and animals (66.6 %).

World production

Commodity Global Production

Maize 775 million tonnes * estimated

Source-International Grain Council

CONSUPTION PRODUCER IMPORTER EXPORTER

1. USA 1. USA 1. Japan 1. USA

2. China 2. China 2. Korea 2. Argentina

3. Ukraine 3. Brazil 3. Taiwan 3. Brazil

35

35

INDIAN SCENARIO

The cultivation of maize in India is mainly concentrated in the areas of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh,

Bihar, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Maize production in India is a mere 17 million tonnes

out of a total grain production of 219 million tonnes in 2007-2008. Around 50 % of the maize produced is

used by the feed industry. Starch industry is another major consumer of maize. India is also an exporter

of maize, mainly to the south east asean countries. As per the production estimates for grain production

in India, India’s maize production is expected to be close to 17 MMT.

Balance sheet of maize for 2008-09

1997-98 300 10.82 175 11155 10853 2 10855 300

1998-99 300 11.15 250 12020 11350 17 11367 653

1999-2000

653 11.51 50 12771 11950 95 12045 726

2000-01 726 12.04 1 14237 13050 25 13075 1162

2001-02 1162 13.16 1 12263 12000 50 12050 213

2002-03 213 11.15 0 15193 13500 1257 14757 436

2003-04 436 14.98 3 14619 13900 543.27 14443.3 271

2004-05 271 14.17 4 14985 14200 1082.26 15282.3 264

2005-06 264 14.71 4 15368 13900 419.95 14320 260

2006-07 260 15.09 4 19224 14200 4473 18673 551

2007-08 551 19.3 5 17556 16300 400 16700 856

2008-09 856 18.5 5 19361 17400 1000 18400 961

Crop calendar of maize in India

States Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Andhra Pradesh(K)

Andhra Pradesh(R)

36

36

Rajasthan(K)

Madhya Pradesh(K)

Bihar(K)

Uttar pradesh(K)

Karnataka(K)

Karnataka(R)

Technical chart of Maize futures as traded on NCDEX (oct. fut)

37

37

CRUDE OIL

Petroleum (L. petroleum from Greek πετρέλαιον, lit. "rock oil") or crude oil is a naturally occurring,

flammable liquid found in rock formations in the Earth consisting of a complex mixture

of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights, plus other organic compounds. Crude traded in

international market is traded in terms of barrels and NYMEX is the reference exchange for crude. Crude

oil price has been volatile over the years. From the highs of about 140$ a barrel it hit the low of 32 $ per

barrel this year. It is presently traded at close to 65 $ per barrel. The OPEC countries control the supply

and prices of crude to a large extent.

World Scenario:

CONSUPTION PRODUCER IMPORTER EXPORT

1. USA 1. Saudi Arabia

1. USA 1. Saudi Arabia

2. China 2. Russia 2. Japan 2. Russia

3. Japan 3. USA 3. China 3. UAE

INDIAN SCENARIO

India already imports over 70 percent of its crude oil requirements, with its oil import bill being close to USD 90 billion in 2008-09. Crude oil occupies has a share of 36 % in the Indian energy pie.(Source: Planning commission of India statistics) The commencement of production of crude oil from Cairn India Ltd's have provided a major boost to the domestic oil and gas sector in India and Some of the existing oil and gas fields were experiencing a decline in their production since they had already been in production for several years and were past India has an installed capacity of refining 177.97 million metric tonnes of Crude oil.

38

38

Balance Sheet of Crude Oil in India (values in million tonnes)

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09*

Beginning stock 0 2.47 4.43 6.85 8.34 7.278 6.965

Production 33.04 33.37 33.98 32.19 33.988 34.117 33.9924

Import 81.99 90.43 95.86 99.41 111.5 121.67 126.659

Total Supply (i) 115.03 126.27 134.27 138.45 153.83 163.07 167.617

Domestic Consumption 112.56 121.84 127.42 130.11 146.55 156.1 161.882

Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Demand (ii) 112.56 121.84 127.42 130.11 146.55 156.1 161.882

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 2.47 4.43 6.85 8.34 7.278 6.965 5.73473

39

39

Technical chart of brent crude oil as traded on MCX(Nov fut)

CRUDE PALM OIL

Palm oil is edible plant oil derived from the fruit and kernels (seeds) of the oil palm Elaeis

guineensis.BMD is the reference exchange for CPO. It used to be the cheapest edible oil but with the

increase in its use to manufacture biodiesel its prices started increasing and hence its price has a high

degree of correlation with Crude prices. India is the 4th largest consumer of CPO after China, Indonesia

and European Union.

World production

Commodity Global Production

Palm oil 35 MTs

Source-International Grain Council

40

40

CRUDE PALM OIL

CONSUPTION PRODUCER IMPORTER EXPORT

1. China 1. Malayasia 1. China 1. Malayasia

2. Indonesia 2. Indonesia 2. EU 2. Indonesia

3. EU 3. Nigeria 3. India 3. Nigeria

INDIAN SCENARIO

The prices of Crude Palm oil and Soybean oil are closely correlated as they are competing products. India

imports about 65,000 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia every month. India used to be the largest

importer of Malaysian palm oil before being replaced by China in 2002. India's decision not to impose

import duty on crude palm oil (CPO) while maintaining a 20 per cent duty on soybean oil is expected to

boost CPO imports to the country, at least in the first quarter of this year. This year the imports of palm

stood at 5.9 lakh tonnes in June alone which is around 100 % higher than the previous year. At present,

crude edible oils can be imported without paying any duty, while refined oil imports such as soya, palm

and sunflower attract 7.5% import duty.

Balance Sheet of Crude Palm oil in India (Values in million tons)

2002-03

2003-04 2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08 2008-09*

Beginning stock 350 124 50 208 20 100 50

Production 35 40 40 40 50 50 50

Import 3954 3486 3725 2899 3800 4000 3668.71

Total Supply (i) 4339 3650 3815 3147 3870 4150 3768.71

Domestic Consumption

4215 3598 3606 3125 3769 4095 3694.1

Exports 0 2 1 2 1 5 6

Total Demand (ii) 4215 3600 3607 3127 3770 4100 3700

Ending Stocks ( i - ii) 124 50 208 20 100 50 68.7143

41

41

Technical chart of palm oil futures as traded on MCX (oct. fut.)