Commodity Monthly Monitor - WisdomTree Europe · market perception of excess supply and a warm...

Summary

ContentsCommodities market overview 1

Summary tables 4

CFTC net positioning 5

Inventories 9

Moving average and volumes 13

Futures curves 17

Recent publications 21

Commodity Monthly Matrix1 Performance

2- 1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth

All Commodities -0.5% 1.2% 1.3%

Energy -5.3% -2.4% -5.4%WTI Oil 59 -3.9% 1.6% -1.5% -2% -0.1% (1) 2 Industrial Metals 2.2% 0.9% 5.6%Brent Oil 65 -1.9% 1.1% -0.9% -7% 1.3% 1 1 Precious Metals 5.6% 9.8% 18.6%Natural Gas 2.0 -13.6% -16.0% -13.6% -19% 0.9% 0 0 Agriculture -0.4% 1.5% -1.7%Gasoline 1.6 -2.7% -6.5% 14.2% 26% -0.9% (2) 3 MSCI World 3.6% 10.7% 23.7%

Heating Oil 1.9 -8.6% -4.1% -3.4% -728% -0.2% (2) 0 US Aggregate Bond 0.6% 3.1% 9.2%

Carbon 25.4 -2.3% -1.5% - - -0.1% (4) (4)

Wheat 5.7 2.6% 13.8% 0.1% 11% -0.1% 0 (2)

Corn 3.9 -0.2% 0.4% -1.6% 51% -1.5% 1 (2)

Soybeans 9 0.1% 4.8% 1.5% 165% -1.4% 0 (1)

Sugar 0.1 8.9% 17.3% 3.6% 134% 0.3% 2 0

Cotton 0.7 7.2% 9.6% -4.9% 175% -1.3% 2 (2)

Coffee 1.1 -15.2% 8.3% 4.3% -9% -2.0% (3) 1

Soybean Oil 0.3 -1.4% 12.9% -9.2% 4% -1.0% 1 1

Cocoa 2,797 10.4% 14.6% - -25% -0.7% (1) 4 CFTC Net Speculative PositioningAluminium 1,791 2.5% 1.0% 20.1% 16% -0.4% 0 1 (in '000 contracts)

Copper (COMEX) 2.8 0.9% 5.7% -6.9% 320% -0.3% 2 0

Copper (LME) 6,263 1.3% 5.4% -54.5% 10% -0.1% 2 0

Zinc 2,443 6.7% -0.6% -30.1% 13% 0.2% 3 2

Nickel 13,867 -0.4% -4.1% 107.2% -9% -0.2% (4) 1

Lead 1,978 5.3% -0.3% 11.5% -4% 0.1% (1) 0

Tin 17,790 2.5% 0.7% 25.1% -6% -0.1% (2) 0

Gold 1,560 5.8% 8.6% - 17% - 4 2

Silver 18 6.4% 9.1% - 49% - 4 (2)

Platinum 1,019 9.6% 15.0% - 22% - 4 2

Palladium 2,225 16.0% 38.9% - -12% - 0 0

Live Cattle 1.3 3.4% 12.4% - -4% -0.7% (1) 1

Lean Hogs 0.7 -3.1% -6.2% - 28% -8.7% (1) (4)

Feeder Cattle 1.5 0.1% 3.1% - 32% 0.2% 4 0Source: WisdomTree, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Bloomberg

1

Bloomberg TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Friday 17 January 2020. Source:

WisdomTree, Bloomberg

The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg

- Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this

report. 2 All prices are futures prices to Friday 17 Jan 20. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past

6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Jan 14, 2020 and Jan 17, 2020 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front

month and second month futures prices on report date.

Current

Price2

Returns

(-1 Mth)

Positioning4

(- 1 Mth)

Geopolitical shocks only provided a transitory lift to oil. The energy complex continues to suffer from the

market perception of excess supply and a warm winter in the US has been a particular weight on

natural gas and heating oil.

Most agricultural commodities benefit from the first phase of the US-China trade deal. Short positioning

on most agricultural commodities led by soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, sugar, cocoa was trimmed

underscoring the optimism towards the commodity. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its

latest January monthly report surprised the market by revising its estimates for the US corn and soybean

crop upwards for the 2019/20 season. However, USDA plans to re-survey farmers in five of the worst-hit

states and investors will base their outlook on the final figures.

Industrial metals rebound after the signing of the phase 1 of the US-China trade deal coupled with

stronger than expected Chinese economic data. The international study groups for nickel, lead, zinc

and copper expect the global market balance for the respective commodities to be in surplus next

year.

Precious metals posted the strongest performance amongst the commodity complex led by palladium.

Strong fundamentals coupled with a boost to risk sentiment from the phase 1 of the US-China trade

deal supported cyclically linked palladium prices higher. Gold and silver prices also benefitted owing

to rising geopolitical uncertainty led by tension between the US and Iran.

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20 Dec

Score

25 Nov

Score

Inventories3

(- 3 Mths)

Price vs 200

days MARoll Yield

5

Commodity Monthly Monitor

Commodities moving beyond trade and geopolitics 20 Dec 2019 - 17 Jan 2020

The commodity complex has started 2020 with mixed performance. Precious metals were the standout

winners – with gold and silver rallying in response to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and palladium

continuing to acknowledge supply tightness (and platinum benefiting from both of these themes). Energy

by contrast has performed poorly, despite an initial price spike in oil related to geopolitical concerns. Oil

and gold have traditionally responded positively to geopolitical concerns in oil producing countries, but in

the past year or so, shocks in producing countries have only provided a transitory lift to oil, while for gold

the gains have stuck more consistently. That could be a reflection of the growing role of supply from shale

oil in the US, which is far more nimble and price responsive than traditional oil supplies.

On Wednesday 15th January US and China signed an interim deal on trade after close to two years of

fraught negotiations. It falls short of a comprehensive deal, but we believe it is likely to take market focus

away from potential demand-destruction that rising trade protectionism could entail. Avoiding new tariffs

could help the cyclical commodity-complex trade on its own fundamentals rather than on fears of

demand destruction that has weighed on the market in the past year. Of course, it doesn’t mean that we

are out of the woods. A vindicated US could turn its attention on its trade deficit with the European Union,

possibly implementing the auto tariffs it has been threatening for the past year. That would lead to

resurfacing of demand fears, that would hurt base metals and energy in particular. However, in a

Presidential election year, and with tentative signs of the green shoots of a global manufacturing recovery

taking place, the US may choose not to rock the boat this year. In the latter scenario, we expect strong

performance in industrial metals – most of which are in supply deficits.

2020 could be a period of monetary divergence. The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates further this

year. Despite pseudo-easing coming from repo market interventions, the US is likely to be less

accommodating this year than last year. In the UK however, interest rates may fall reflecting its central

bank’s response to demand weakness. The European Central Bank, after undertaking a strategic review,

could also introduce new tools to stimulate an economy that increasingly seems to be suffering structurally

if not cyclically. Whether we get US Dollar appreciation on the back of these trends (which is usually seen

as price negative for commodities priced in Dollars) is an open question as many look at the unsustainable

growing indebtedness in the US as a source of longer-term concern. The US Dollar has largely traded flat in

the past month and therefore has had little impact on price returns.

Nitesh Shah

Director

Aneeka Gupta

Associate Director

Mobeen Tahir

Associate Director

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Precious Metals Livestock Industrial Metals

Energy Agriculture

Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Agriculture Agriculture - January Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals - January Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Energy Energy - January Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Precious Metals Precious Metals - January Returns*

2

Source: Bloomberg

*Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Friday 17 January 2020.


Industrial metals staged the second-best performance among commodities. The phase 1 of the US-

China trade deal, positive economic data releases from China coupled with a global equity market

rally underscored an increased risk appetite, lending buoyancy to industrial metals. Chinese imports

and exports increased significantly more sharply than expected in December, though from a small

base.

Zinc was the best performer among the industrial metals. According to the International Lead and Zinc

Study Group (ILZSG), the global zinc market showed a supply deficit of 156,000 tons in the first three

quarters of the year. The deficit was noticeably higher over the same period last year. In contrast, the

deficit on the global lead market has more than doubled to 83,000 tons according to ILZSG owing to

declining supply following outage of one of the world’s largest lead smelters. Looking ahead, the ILZSG,

expects both the zinc and lead markets to be in surplus next year.

Nickel was the outlier among industrial metals falling over the period by -0.4%. According to data from

the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the global nickel market was in a supply deficit from

January to November 2019 at 53,400 tons almost two thirds lower compared to the same period over

the prior year. According to INSG, the deficit is expected to decrease further as larger quantities of

nickel are being produced in anticipation of higher demand from production of batteries. Similar to the

trend we have seen historically, it is likely INSG are being conservative in their outlook for the lower

deficit on the nickel market as they are discounting the risk of supply disruptions.

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Cocoa prices staged the highest performance amongst the agricultural commodities, up 10% over the

period mainly because of concerns of a lower mid-crop in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer,

after the country received too little rainfall in the prior weeks. The patchy rain showers that have taken

place in the meantime are unlikely to offset the moisture deficit owing to which the developing pods

may not grow as big. However, we believe concerns over crop shortfalls are appear overdone as there

is still some time for rainfall period. In addition, some cocoa farmers have expressed optimism about the

prospects for the mid-crop that begins in April and continues until September.

Sugar prices have experienced an upward price momentum since its price dip below 11cents in

September last year. The reason for the optimism is due to the prospect of a deficit on the global sugar

market in the current 2019/20 season. The International Sugar Organisation (ISO) has revised its deficit

higher for 2019/20 to 6 million tons and increased the prospect of another deficit in 2020/21 which it

estimated at 3.5mn tons. Sugar prices are also benefiting as production in India fell 26% short on the

year-on-year level in the first three and half months of the crop year. However higher sugar prices could

increase the possibility of higher Indian sugar exports from stocks and could incentivise sugar mills in

Brazil (the world’s largest sugar exporter) to turn more sugarcane into sugar (as opposed to ethanol).

Cotton prices rose 7.2% over the period. USDA in its latest monthly January report downgraded the

global 2019/20 cotton ending stock forecasts by 730,000 bales this month owing to lower production

and trade. The signing of the phase 1 of the US-China trade deal on January 15th, 2020 also lent

buoyancy to cotton prices which are expected to benefit from increased Chinese agricultural

purchases.

Sector Overview

The entire energy complex is trading lower this month. Despite periodic price spikes in oil related to

geopolitical tensions, market concerns on surplus production seem to be weighing down on prices.

Tensions between the US and Iran, with proxy fighting in Iraq, followed by production outages in Libya

resulting from a shuttering of pipelines by the eastern warlord contributed to supply shocks in January

2020. Libya has had volatile production since the start of the civil war in 2014. We think it is odd that it

takes a realised production disruption for geopolitical risks to be recognised. It is even more strange

that despite the frequency of these events, the geopolitical premium in oil quickly evaporates shortly

after each incident. Given unresolved geopolitical risks, we expect continuous price spikes during the

course of the year, but volatility in price could be tempered by the US production remaining strong.

US natural gas prices have declined 13.6% in the past month, as warmer temperatures across the US

have dampened demand for the fuel. We are currently seeing the lowest January spot gas prices since

1999 as inventory is 6% above average for this time of the year.

Heating oil (also known as ultra-low-sulphur diesel) has given back all of its gains since November 2019.

With the implementation of International Marine Organization 2020 shipping regulations this month,

demand for the transport fuel by the shipping industry is rising. However, mild temperatures in the US

have dampened demand for heating purposes.

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Palladium led the best performance among precious metals up 16%, over the period. Fundamentals

remain tight and could get tighter amid recent supply disruptions in South Africa. While some mining

operations have resumed, the risk of further disruptions have not diminished. Palladium being more

cyclical in nature also benefited from a boost to risk sentiment from the completion of the Phase 1 of

the US-China trade deal, stronger Chinese economic data coupled with a global equity market rally.

Despite the slowdown in the auto industry, demand for palladium from the auto sector remains strong

as the metal content required in auto catalysts has risen because of tighter emission regulations,

especially in China. Platinum prices rose 9.6% over the period supported by two main factors –

geopolitical uncertainty and higher demand of platinum loadings in auto catalysts owing to tighter

emission regulations which have offset the decline in diesel car sales.

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-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Bre

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Oil

Ca

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Ga

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WTI

Oil

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-15%

-10%

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5%

10%

15%

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Live

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2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Pa

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Pla

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Silv

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Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions (over past month)1

Source: Bloomberg

Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories (over past 3 months)2

Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields (front to next month)3

Source: Bloomberg

Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 200 day moving av. (dma)4

Source: Bloomberg

1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month. 2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %).

3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on Jan 17, 2020.4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 200 day moving average on Jan 17, 2020.

3Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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Technical Overview (as of Jan 17, 2020)

Positioning in heating oil futures fell from 1,850 contracts net long last month to

11,625 contracts net short this month as investors have become bearish on the

commodity following a warm beginning to the winter in the US.

Positioning in gasoline futures remain more than two standard deviations above

historic average. Investors remain bullish on the commodity despite the 2.7% pull-

back in price over the past month.

Net speculative positioning on cotton, soybeans and sugar rose 175%, 165% and

134% respectively as short positions were trimmed by 53%, 43% and 24% respectively

largely due to the optimism over the signing on the phase 1 of the US-China trade

deal as these commodities are expected to benefit from increased Chinese

agricultural purchases.

Investors appeared less optimistic on outlook for cocoa and coffee as net

speculative positioning declined 24.6% and 9.1% respectively.

Copper witnessed a considerable rise in net speculative positioning by 319.5% owing

to reduced US-China trade frictions, weaker US dollar alongside a pickup in Chinese

economic data. Chinese unwrought copper imports rose 23% over the prior year,

according to the Customs authorities, marking the highest figure since March 2016.

Net speculative positioning of palladium futures declined 11.7% over the period and

remains below its five-year average. This highlights there is ample room for

positioning to rise as the palladium price is being driven by fundamental drivers

rather than short term positioning.

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Backwardation in Brent oil futures is providing a 1.3% roll yield, which the most

pronounced front moth positive roll available in commodity market at the moment.

Backwardation highlights the near-term tightness in oil markets. With disruptions to

Libyan production and potential threats to Iranian and Iraqi production the market

is willing to pay a premium for prompt delivery than to wait.

Lean hogs, coffee, corn, soybeans and cotton are in contango. Roll yields are

considerably negative with lean hogs at -8.7% and cotton at -1.3% indicating that

the markets are in oversupply in the short term.

The front end of the palladium futures curve remains backwardated yielding a

positive roll yield of 0.4%.

Natural gas inventories declined by 13.6% in the past month, as we would expect

given seasonal storage patterns. However, inventories remain 6% above average for

this time of the year, which is weighing on price.

Nickel inventories have taken a dramatic turn after falling for most of 2019, they

increased by 107% over the prior 3 months. There is a strong likelihood that the nickel

stocks that were taken off-exchange around the time of the Indonesian ore ban

announcement have now been delivered back to the market as holding them

would be challenging in the current falling price environment.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Indonesia exported around 6500 tons of tin in

December, up 23% over the prior year, marking the highest export figure since June,

despite the fact that Indonesian tin exporters were intending to reduce exports

owing to low prices. Should Indonesia continue to export more tin in 2020, it will

dampen the prospect of tin prices.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China already produced

significantly more aluminium in December, this trend is likely to continue this year

given that extensive smelting capacities are set to come onto the market.

Source: Bloomberg

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Natural gas is trading 16% below its 200-day moving average. Warm weather in the

US does not favour natural gas demand at a time when seasonal demand should

be close to its highest.

Sugar prices are benefiting from the outlook of a higher deficit in the global sugar

market in the current 2019/20 season according to the ISO as prices are trading

17.3% above their 200-dma.

Cocoa prices are trading 14.6% above their 200-dma due to concerns of a lower

mid-crop in Ivory Coast. Further price upside is likely capped by the optimistic

prospects for the mid-crop that begins in April.

Palladium prices are trading 38.9% above their 200-dma. Tighter fundamentals

coupled with a global cyclical rally at the start of the year helped drive palladium

prices higher. We expect the price momentum to continue.

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Nickel

Tin

Aluminium

Gasoline

Lead

Copper - Comex

Soybean Oil

Natural Gas

Zinc

Copper - LME

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Palladium

Sugar

Platinum

Cocoa

Wheat

Heating Oil

Nickel

Lean Hogs

Gasoline

Natural Gas

% < 200 dma % > 200 dma

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2%

Brent Oil

Natural Gas

Palladium

Sugar

Feeder Cattle

Cotton

Soybeans

Corn

Coffee

Lean Hogs

Contango Backwardation

-800% -600% -400% -200% 0% 200% 400%

Copper (COMEX)

Cotton

Soybeans

Sugar

Corn

Coffee

Palladium

Natural Gas

Cocoa

Heating Oil

4 23 42 61 4 3

Unit ROLL YIELDS2 Unit Exchange 17-Jan 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month

Energy EnergyWTI Oil 59 USD/bbl. -3.9% 8.5% 3.1% 12.4% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.2%

Brent Oil 65 USD/bbl. -1.9% 8.2% 1.9% 6.0% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 0.8%

Natural Gas 2.0 USD/MMBtu -13.6% -13.6% -13.1% -41.3% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% -7.9%

Gasoline 1.6 USd/gal. -2.7% 1.1% -12.7% 14.7% Gasoline USd/gal. NYMEX -0.9% -0.5% -0.2% 2.6%

Heating Oil 1.9 USd/gal. -8.6% -4.6% -1.8% -1.3% Heating Oil USd/gal. NYMEX -0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 0.8%

Carbon 25.4 EUR/MT -2.3% -2.7% -10.8% 7.9% Carbon EUR/MT ICE -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

Agriculture

Wheat 5.7 USd/bu. 2.6% 8.6% 12.9% 10.2% Wheat USd/bu. CBOT -0.1% -0.4% -0.5% -0.9%

Corn 3.9 USd/bu. -0.2% -1.4% -10.7% 2.4% Corn USd/bu. CBOT -1.5% -1.8% -1.6% -2.9%

Soybeans 9.3 USd/bu. 0.1% -0.2% 5.4% 2.4% Soybeans USd/bu. CBOT -1.4% -1.2% -1.3% -1.5%

Sugar 0.1 USd/lb. 8.9% 18.1% 22.6% 12.5% Sugar USd/lb. NYBOT 0.3% 0.0% -0.6% -0.8%

Cotton 0.7 USd/lb. 7.2% 9.6% 15.1% -4.2% Cotton USd/lb. NYBOT -1.3% -1.6% -1.7% -0.8%

Coffee 1.1 USd/lb. -15.2% 20.7% 5.9% 9.5% Coffee USd/lb. NYBOT -2.0% -1.9% -1.1% -3.6%

Soybean Oil 0.3 USd/lb. -1.4% 9.7% 20.5% 15.9% Soybean Oil USd/lb. CBOT -1.0% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8%

Cocoa 2,797 USD/MT 10.4% 12.4% 15.4% 19.8% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT -0.7% -0.5% -0.6% -0.9%

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals

Aluminum 1,791 USD/MT 2.5% 3.1% -2.6% -3.4% Aluminum USD/MT LME -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -0.2%

Copper 2.8 USd/lb. 0.9% 9.5% 5.0% 6.2% Copper USd/lb. COMEX -0.3% -0.3% 0.2% -0.3%

Copper (LME) 6,263 USD/MT 1.3% 9.4% 4.9% 4.7% Copper (LME) USD/MT LME -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

Zinc 2,443 USD/MT 6.7% -1.3% -1.5% -4.7% Zinc USD/MT LME 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%

Nickel 13,867 USD/MT -0.4% -15.2% -4.1% 20.1% Nickel USD/MT LME -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.3%

Lead 1,978 USD/MT 5.3% -10.2% -1.4% 1.1% Lead USD/MT LME 0.1% -0.8% -0.4% 0.4%

Tin 17,790 USD/MT 2.5% 3.8% -0.8% -14.0% Tin USD/MT LME -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1%

Precious Metals Precious Metals

Gold 1,560 USD/t oz. 5.8% 4.6% 9.6% 20.7% Gold USD/t oz. COMEX -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%

Silver 18.1 USD/t oz. 6.4% 2.6% 13.7% 16.3% Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% -0.8%

Platinum 1,019 USD/t oz. 9.6% 14.7% 21.1% 26.2% Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.5% -0.5% -0.7% -0.4%

Palladium 2,225 USD/t oz. 16.0% 28.6% 44.2% 65.0% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6%

Livestock Livestock

Live Cattle 1.3 USd/lb. 3.4% 12.4% 16.9% -0.6% Live Cattle USd/lb. CME -0.7% -0.4% -3.2% -1.7%

Lean Hogs 0.7 USd/lb. -3.1% -0.7% -17.5% 11.2% Lean Hogs USd/lb. CME -8.7% -9.3% -9.8% -12.2%

Feeder Cattle 1.5 USd/lb. 0.1% 0.8% 3.4% 2.8% Feeder Cattle USd/lb. CME 0.2% 0.1% -0.4% -0.1%

EnergyE

nEnergy

WTI Oil 536,428 445,225 549,843 454,711 359,611 Oil - US 428,511 -3.3% -4% -1% -6%

Brent Oil** 330,678 193,328 355,858 131,198 -28,076 Oil - OECD Europe** 356 4% 0.8% -0.9% 0%

Natural Gas -239,620 -114,184 -201,817 -160,152 2,431 Natural Gas - DOE 3,039 5.8% -11% -14% 20%

Gasoline 73,228 99,796 83,352 88,986 Gasoline - DOE 258,287 5.5% 9% 14% 11%

Heating Oil -11,625 13,213 1,850 -5,193 -3,552 Heating Oil - DOE 10,795 -10% -2% -3% 4%

Agriculture Industrial Metals

Wheat 34,692 -40,955 31,299 32,004 -659 Aluminum 1,560,812 -35% -6% 20% 11%

Corn -27,572 43,507 -56,384 284,096 93,483 Aluminum - LME 1,340,725 -31% -7% 37% 36%

Soybeans 28,787 33,841 -44,120 -9,713 -4,214 Aluminium - SHFE 220,087 -51% 1% -31% -47%

Sugar 110,844 44,699 47,368 -43,682 -9,737 Copper 294,765 -46% -8% -34% -39%

Cotton 40,964 53,640 14,895 -32,589 5,444 Copper - LME 125,250 -51% -23% -54% -58%

Coffee 39,610 -15,091 43,587 -3,508 -56,883 Copper - SHFE 134,812 -27% 15% 0% -7%

Soybean Oil 131,725 37,520 127,009 -3,989 -1,336 Copper - COMEX 34,703 -66% -13% -7% -7%

Cocoa 47,629 20,168 63,194 47,303 21,560 Nickel - LME 182,934 -44% 40% 107% 23%

Industrial Metals5 Zinc 91,883 -78% 4% -30% -41%

Copper (COMEX) 4,636 1,559 1,105 -31,288 -27,890 Zinc - LME 51,450 -83% -6% -16% -36%

Copper (LME) 53,173 34,557 48,336 31,311 31,608 Zinc - SHFE 40,433 -67% 19% -42% -45%

Aluminum 176,807 155,970 151,792 155,310 146,001 Lead 94,556 -47% -17% 12% -3%

Nickel 30,754 19,827 33,627 26,074 8,540 Lead - LME 66,250 -55% -2% -4% 5%

Zinc 51,885 44,706 45,858 39,597 41,806 Lead - SHFE 28,306 -10% -38% 81% -17%

Lead 53,675 52,376 55,904 49,887 44,152 Tin 14,009 59% 42% 25% 4%

Tin 9,152 8,054 9,699 8,610 9,010 Tin - LME 7,055 60% 19% 5% 9%

Precious Metals Tin - SHFE 6,954 59% 76% 55% 0%

Gold 342,089 157,375 291,526 279,274 112,977A

gAgriculture

Silver 68,623 39,507 46,011 38,026 53,231 Wheat - USDA 288,080 47.0% -0.5% 0.1% 0.6%

Platinum 67,039 24,559 54,996 16,170 8,017 Corn - USDA 297,810 104% -0.9% -1.6% -0.4%

Palladium 11,538 13,097 13,067 12,373 15,045 Soybeans - USDA 96,670 53% 0.3% 1.5% -8%

Livestock Sugar - USDA 49,580 38% - 3.6% 4%

Live Cattle 106,337 79,910 111,083 59,337 127,635 Cotton - USDA 79,590 12% -0.9% -4.9% -1.0%

Lean Hogs 27,567 40,408 21,497 68,745 22,924 Coffee - USDA 34,976 -3% - 4.3% 4%

Feeder Cattle 10,187 6,612 7,728 -2,467 801 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,340 -19% 1.8% -9% -6%

1Performance of front month futures from 17 Jan 19 (1 Year), 17 Jul 19 (6 Month), 17 Oct 19 (3 Month) and 17 Dec 19 (1 Month) to 17 Jan 20.

2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 17 Oct 19 (3 Month), 17 Dec 19 (1 Month), 10 Jan 20 (1 Week), 17 Jan 20.

4

6 Month

3Net positions in number of contracts.

4Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory.

For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report month over the past 5 years. SHFE started reporting inventory data from April 2015. 5All Industrial metals positioning

data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 30 January 2018 (first available date) under post-MIFID rules. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January

2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 3 month lag with current = Oct 2019.


Agriculture

1 YearCFTC NET POSITIONING3 6 MonthCurrent 3 Month

5 Yr

Average1 MonthCurrent

Summary Tables

INVENTORY LEVELS4

Current 1 Year

5 Yr

Average

PRICES1 3 Month

1 Month

6 Month1 Month

T

Agriculture

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree



·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 5

CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions

All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Jan 14, 2020 and Jan 17, 2020 respectively.

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Cocoa

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

-1x stdv

-2x stdv

1x stdv

2x stdv

5 Yr Average

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Corn

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/bu.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Soybean Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/lb.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Sugar


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

8

9

9

10

10

11

11

12

12

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Soybeans


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Wheat


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Coffee


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Cotton


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average


Energy



Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

6Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. All commodity futures price data is denominated in

USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then.


0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Heating Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Natural Gas

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Brent Oil

ICE managed money net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Gasoline

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1x stdv

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

WTI Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Industrial Metals





7Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. LME non-commercial net positions from 30 January

2018 post MIFID II data and respective graphs represent daily data. All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Copper (LME)

LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Zinc


1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Lead


9,800

10,800

11,800

12,800

13,800

14,800

15,800

16,800

17,800

18,800

-14

-9

-4

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Nickel


1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Aluminum


1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Copper (COMEX)


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

15,500

16,500

17,500

18,500

19,500

20,500

21,500

22,500

0

5

10

15

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Tin


Precious Metals



Livestock



8Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. respective graphs represent daily data. All

commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Lean Hogs


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Live Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Feeder Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

12

19

26

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Jan

-20

Silver

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Gold


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

450

650

850

1,050

1,250

1,450

1,650

1,850

2,050

2,250

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Palladium


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

1,750

1,950

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Platinum


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Agriculture

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

•

·Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

9

Inventories

Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2017/2018 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91/

92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/

02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11/1

2

13/1

4

15/1

6

17/1

8

19/2

0

Corn - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections vs.

previous = -2.3%

0

50

100

150

200

250

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Coffee - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections

vs. previous = 5.2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91/

92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/

02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11/1

2

13/1

4

15/1

6

17/1

8

19/2

0

Cotton - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


vs. previous = -3.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybeans - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections vs. previous = 2.2%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

83/8

4

85/8

6

87/8

8

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/0

2

03/0

4

05/0

6

07/0

8

09/1

0

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybeans - Ending StocksAnnual data in , from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections vs. previous = 1.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Coffee - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln bags (60 kg), from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections

vs. previous = 1.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91/

92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/

02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11/1

2

13/1

4

15/1

6

17/1

8

19/2

0

Cotton - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln 480 lb Bales, from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections vs.

previous = -4.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91/

92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/

02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11/1

2

13/1

4

15/1

6

17/1

8

19/2

0

Corn - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections

vs. previous = -4.7




Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

10Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Wheat - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 0.2%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01

/02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10

/11

11

/12

12

/13

13

/14

14

/15

15

/16

16

/17

17

/18

18

/19

19

/20

Sugar - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1998 to 2019


vs. previous = 8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91/

92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/

02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11/1

2

13/1

4

15/1

6

17/1

8

19/2

0

Soybean Oil - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


previous = -8.8%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Wheat - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 0.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

85

/86

87/8

8

89

/90

91

/92

93/9

4

95

/96

97

/98

99/0

0

01/0

2

03

/04

05

/06

07/0

8

09

/10

11

/12

13/1

4

15/1

6

17

/18

19

/20

Sugar - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = -11.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91/

92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01/

02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11/1

2

13/1

4

15/1

6

17/1

8

19/2

0

Soybean Oil - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = -0.3

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

Cocoa - InventoryAnnual data in '000 metric tons, from 1981 to 2019

Industrial Metals


Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Livestock


11Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Tin Inventory

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes) SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data in '000 MT, from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Lead Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data, from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Nickel InventoryDaily data in '000 MT, from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 19

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Zinc Inventory



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Aluminum Inventory



80

130

180

230

280

330

380

430

480

530

580

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Copper Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

85/8

6

87/8

8

89/9

0

91

/92

93

/94

95/9

6

97/9

8

99/0

0

01/0

2

03

/04

05

/06

07/0

8

09/1

0

11/1

2

13

/14

15

/16

17/1

8

19/2

0

Lean Hogs InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2019

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Live Cattle InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2019

Energy

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: IEA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

12Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag.


300

350

400

450

500

550

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

US Oil Inventory

5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2019 2020

Weekly data in mln barrels, from Jan 15 to Jan 20

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Gasoline Inventory



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951

Natural Gas Inventory


Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from Jan 15 to Jan 20

6

11

16

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Heating Oil Inventory



280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory


Monthly data in mln barrels, from Oct 14 to Oct 19

Agriculture




·


13

Commodities Front Month Futures and

Trading Volumes

Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Cocoa Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)

Daily data in USD/MT, from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$3.2

$3.4

$3.6

$3.8

$4.0

$4.2

$4.4

$4.6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Corn Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/bu., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$0.20

$0.22

$0.24

$0.26

$0.28

$0.30

$0.32

$0.34

$0.36

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/lb., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Sugar Front Month Futures Price



$0.7

$0.8

$0.9

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Coffee Front Month Futures Price



$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

-150

350

850

1,350

1,850

2,350

2,850

3,350

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Cotton Front Month Futures Price



$7.0

$7.5

$8.0

$8.5

$9.0

$9.5

$10.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Soybeans Front Month Futures Price



$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Wheat Front Month Futures Price



Energy




Carbon


14Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$1.9

$2.4

$2.9

$3.4

$3.9

$4.4

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$1.3

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

3.4 €

8.4 €

13.4 €

18.4 €

23.4 €

28.4 €

€0

€200

€400

€600

€800

€1,000

€1,200

€1,400

€1,600

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Carbon Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in EUR/MT, from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

$1.9

$2.0

$2.1

$2.2

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Gasoline Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

Industrial Metals







$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

-$4,000

$1,000

$6,000

$11,000

$16,000

$21,000

$26,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Aluminum Front Month Futures Price



$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

$3,100

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Zinc Front Month Futures Price



$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Nickel Front Month Futures Price



$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 1

9

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price



$15,000

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$23,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Tin Front Month Futures Price



$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Lead Front Month Futures Price



$4,200

$4,700

$5,200

$5,700

$6,200

$6,700

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) 200 dma (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS)


Precious Metals



Livestock





$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

$1.55

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$0.32

$0.42

$0.52

$0.62

$0.72

$0.82

$0.92

$1.02

$200

$700

$1,200

$1,700

$2,200

$2,700

$3,200

$3,700

$4,200

$4,700

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price



$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Platinum Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/t oz., from 17 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 20

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$1,250

$1,300

$1,350

$1,400

$1,450

$1,500

$1,550

$1,600

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Gold Front Month Futures Price



$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Palladium Front Month Futures Price



$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Silver Front Month Futures Price



Agriculture




·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

17

Futures Curves

Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

$2,800

$2,900

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10Maturity (Month)

Cocoa Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Coffee Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$3.7

$3.8

$3.9

$4.0

$4.1

$4.2

$4.3

$4.4

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Corn Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/bu.

$0.54

$0.59

$0.64

$0.69

$0.74

$0.79

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Cotton Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$0.270

$0.290

$0.310

$0.330

$0.350

$0.370

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

Maturity (Month)

Soybean Oil Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$8.9

$9.1

$9.3

$9.5

$9.7

$9.9

$10.1

$10.3

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

Maturity (Month)

Soybeans Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/bu.

$0.110

$0.115

$0.120

$0.125

$0.130

$0.135

$0.140

$0.145

$0.150

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Sugar Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$4.5

$4.7

$4.9

$5.1

$5.3

$5.5

$5.7

$5.9

$6.1

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

Maturity (Month)

Wheat Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/bu.

Energy




Carbon


18Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$54

$56

$58

$60

$62

$64

$66

$68

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Brent Oil Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/bbl.

$49

$51

$53

$55

$57

$59

$61

$63

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

WTI Oil Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/bbl.

$1.9

$2.0

$2.1

$2.2

$2.3

$2.4

$2.5

$2.6

$2.7

$2.8

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Natural Gas Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MMBtu

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M1

1

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Gasoline Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/gal.

$1.70

$1.75

$1.80

$1.85

$1.90

$1.95

$2.00

$2.05

$2.10

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Heating Oil Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/gal.

17.0 €

19.0 €

21.0 €

23.0 €

25.0 €

27.0 €

29.0 €

31.0 €

33.0 €

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

Maturity (Month)

Carbon Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

EUR/MT

Industrial Metals







$1,660

$1,760

$1,860

$1,960

$2,060

$2,160

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Aluminum Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

$1,800

$1,850

$1,900

$1,950

$2,000

$2,050

$2,100

$2,150

$2,200

$2,250

$2,300

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Lead Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

$2.55

$2.60

$2.65

$2.70

$2.75

$2.80

$2.85

$2.90

$2.95

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M1

0

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

M24

M25

Maturity (Month)

Copper (COMEX) Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$5,600

$5,700

$5,800

$5,900

$6,000

$6,100

$6,200

$6,300

$6,400M

1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Copper (LME) Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

$16,500

$16,700

$16,900

$17,100

$17,300

$17,500

$17,700

$17,900

$18,100

$18,300

$18,500

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Tin Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

$12,000

$12,800

$13,600

$14,400

$15,200

$16,000

$16,800

$17,600

$18,400

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Nickel Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Zinc Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/MT

Precious Metals



Livestock





$16.0

$16.5

$17.0

$17.5

$18.0

$18.5

$19.0

$19.5

$20.0

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

Maturity (Month)

Silver Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/t oz.

$1,430

$1,480

$1,530

$1,580

$1,630

$1,680

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

Maturity (Month)

Gold Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/t oz.

$860

$880

$900

$920

$940

$960

$980

$1,000

$1,020

$1,040

$1,060

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Platinum Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/t oz.

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Palladium Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USD/t oz.

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Lean Hogs Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Live Cattle Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

$1.34

$1.39

$1.44

$1.49

$1.54

$1.59

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Feeder Cattle Futures

17 Jan 20 10 Jan 20 17 Dec 19 17 Oct 19

USd/lb.

C

Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained

CALENDAR

WisdomTree - Recent Blogs

21-Jan-20 David Linden Battery Storage: Driving the Energy Transition

17-Jan-20 Nitesh Shah Gold outlook for Q4 2020: Trade turbulence and Middle East tensions still to dominate

15-Jan-20 Mobeen Tahir Another geopolitical jolt for oil markets?

13-Jan-20 Jesper Koll Japan in 2020: Surprises on the horizon?

08-Jan-20 Pierre Debru Quality Investing, an All-Weather Approach

17-Dec-19 WisdomTree Was this Cloud grown organically?

16-Dec-19 Jesper Koll Beyond Abenomics

11-Dec-19 WisdomTree El-Erian’s views on the US divergence

25-Nov-19 Nitesh Shah Gold: how we value the precious metal

19-Nov-19 Lidia Treiber How do AT1 CoCos compare to other risk assets?

15-Nov-19 Aneeka Gupta Time to seize the European small cap equity opportunity

25-Oct-19 Jesper Koll Japan fiscal boost coming?

21-Oct-19 Kevin Flanagan Markets to the Fed: Go fund me

WisdomTree - Past Issues of Commodity Monthly Monitor

Oct - Nov 2019 Research Team Commodities wait while equities rally

Sep - Oct 2019 Research Team Phase1 of trade deal bifurcates commodity markets

Aug - Sep 2019 Research Team Jitters in the oil market and beyond

Jul - Aug 2019 Research Team Trump and Xi's Midas touch

Jun - Jul 2019 Research Team Pre-committed Fed drives a rally across cyclicals & defensives

The research notes are for qualified investors only.

Key Reports

Current Next release

10-Jan-20 11-Feb-20 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

14-Jan-20 11-Feb-20 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

15-Jan-20 12-Feb-20 OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report

16-Jan-20 11-Feb-20 IEA IEA Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER

Important Information

Communications issued in the European Economic Area (“EEA”): This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree Ireland Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

Communications issued in jurisdictions outside of the EEA: This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

WisdomTree Ireland Limited and WisdomTree UK Limited are each referred to as “WisdomTree” (as applicable). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.

For professional clients only. The information contained in this document is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or shares. This document should not

be used as the basis for any investment decision. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any

decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof.

Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by WisdomTree based on publicly available information. Although WisdomTree endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this

document, WisdomTree does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this document make no warranties or representation of any kind relating

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This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding current expectations or beliefs with regards to the performance of certain assets classes and/or sectors. Forward looking statements

are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.

WisdomTree strongly recommends that you do not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of

such strategy would have been. However, back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and

should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1, 0, or 1

depending on whether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not

available or not relevant, scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight

significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance.

The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow:

- price vs. 200 days moving average: 1 when price is above 200dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 200dma and return is negative, 0

otherwise

- % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, 0 when no change

- % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, 0 when no change

- roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, 0 when no change

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-21/battery-storage-driving-the-energy-transition

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-17/gold-outlook-for-q4-2020-trade-turbulence-and-middle-east-tensions-still-to-dominate

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-15/another-geopolitical-jolt-for-oil-markets

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-13/japan-in-2020-surprises-on-the-horizon

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-08/quality-investing-an-all-weather-approach

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-12-17/was-this-cloud-grown-organically

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-12-16/beyond-abenomics

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-12-11/el-erian-s-views-on-the-us-divergence

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-11-25/gold-how-we-value-the-precious-metal

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-11-19/how-do-at1-cocos-compare-to-other-risk-assets

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-11-15/time-to-seize-the-european-small-cap-equity-opportunity

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-10-25/japan-fiscal-boost-coming

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-10-21/markets-to-the-fed-go-fund-me

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2019,-d-,11_commodity-monthly-monitor.pdf





https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0919.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_september_2015.pdf

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

·

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