Commodity Monthly Monitor - WisdomTree Europe · Aneeka Gupta Director Mobeen Tahir Associate...

Summary

ContentsCommodities market overview 1

Summary tables 4

CFTC net positioning 5

Inventories 9

Moving average and volumes 13

Futures curves 17

Recent publications 21

Commodity Monthly Matrix1 Performance

2- 1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth

All Commodities -3.6% 0.1% -4.9%

Energy -6.5% -6.6% -14.9%WTI Oil 53 -8.5% -5.2% -1.7% -22% -0.2% (2) (1) Industrial Metals -8.4% -5.8% -9.7%Brent Oil 59 -9.4% -6.3% 0.5% -49% 1.0% (2) 1 Precious Metals 5.3% 8.4% 21.5%Natural Gas 1.9 0.5% -17.1% -35.6% 10% -0.6% 1 0 Agriculture -2.5% 6.3% -3.9%Gasoline 1.7 0.9% -2.5% 17.3% -8% -6.3% (3) (2) MSCI World -0.6% 13.1% 16.4%

Heating Oil 1.7 -7.8% -10.8% -14.8% -205% 0.3% 0 (2) US Aggregate Bond 1.6% 2.6% 10.3%

Carbon 25.6 2.9% 0.2% - - -0.1% 0 (4)

Wheat 5.5 -5.2% 6.7% -0.1% 31% -0.2% 1 0

Corn 3.8 -2.7% -3.6% 0.3% 4% -1.0% (2) 1

Soybeans 9 -2.8% -0.3% 3.6% -941% -0.9% (4) 0

Sugar 0.2 7.1% 23.1% - 28% 3.1% 2 2

Cotton 0.7 -0.4% 7.0% 1.6% -2% -0.1% (3) 2

Coffee 1.1 -2.0% 3.3% 4.3% -114% -1.3% (3) (3)

Soybean Oil 0.3 -6.4% 2.2% - -55% -1.2% (3) 1

Cocoa 2,922 3.7% 16.8% - 29% 2.8% 4 (1) CFTC Net Speculative PositioningAluminium 1,701 -6.1% -3.4% 6.6% -12% -0.5% (4) 0 (in '000 contracts)

Copper (COMEX) 2.6 -6.6% -2.1% -27.8% -785% -0.3% (2) 2

Copper (LME) 5,758 -6.3% -2.0% -26.4% -31% 0.0% (2) 2

Zinc 2,102 -14.9% -11.8% 87.7% -31% -0.3% (4) 3

Nickel 12,470 -8.4% -14.3% 236.3% -2% -0.2% (4) (4)

Lead 1,826 -7.0% -8.0% -0.6% 1% -0.2% 0 (1)

Tin 16,627 -5.3% -3.7% 37.2% 12% 0.0% (2) (2)

Gold 1,645 5.6% 11.6% - 13% - 4 4

Silver 19 4.1% 9.4% - 15% - 4 4

Platinum 976 -2.6% 8.5% - -9% - (2) 4

Palladium 2,605 16.7% 51.3% - -47% - 0 0

Live Cattle 1.2 -5.3% 6.2% - -46% 1.2% 0 (1)

Lean Hogs 0.7 -0.5% -2.9% - -4% -9.5% (4) (1)

Feeder Cattle 1.4 -3.4% -0.5% - -92% -1.3% (4) 4Source: WisdomTree, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Bloomberg

1

Commodity Monthly Monitor

Has the Black Swan landed ? 17 Jan 2020 - 21 February 2020

Nassim Taleb in his book on uncertainty defined “Black Swans”—extremely unpredictable events that have

massive impacts on human society. One of the defining elements of Black Swans is that models can

explain their existence after the fact. In September 2019 a report compiled at the request of the United

Nations secretary-general said “If it is true to say ‘what’s past is prologue’, then there is a very real threat of

a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen killing 50 to 80 million people and

wiping out nearly 5% of the world’s economy.” The report went largely unnoticed at the time of

publication. It reads eerily like some of the central bank stability reports written in 2007: many risks were

correctly identified, but urgency of remedial action wasn’t there. That is the nature of risks in the tail. Come

February 2020, the report to some is starting to read like a prophesy. Thankfully things aren’t that bad yet.

But with close to half the population of China facing various forms of lock-down due to the coronavirus

and many other parts of the world becoming affected (notably, Korea and Italy, where cases are growing

at a rate that has taken many by surprise), the market is understandably experiencing extreme jitters. As of

27 February 2020, haven assets are up: gold (+8.3% YTD), US 10-Year Treasuries (yield down from 1.91% to

1.29% YTD), US Dollar Basket (+2.5% YTD). While cyclical assets are down: oil (-20.1% YTD), BCOM Industrial

metals (-9.2% YTD). Equity markets, which had largely ignored the threat (S&P 500, +5.4% in year to 19th

February 2020), is now -3.5% yea to date. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has

jumped to 29 (27 February 2020) from 16 a week ago (20 February 2020).

Getting clear data on how much demand has already declined at the epicentre (China) is difficult as

data is already clouded by the lunar New Year (seasonally adjusting this data is fraught with difficulty). But

we know that a sharp decline in flights, road journeys, factory activity (which can all be anecdotally

monitored with satellites and thermal imagery) are likely to dent the demand for productive goods. In the

3rd February release of the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) press release,

there wasn’t even a mention of the word ‘virus’. The PMI level was above the 50 demarcation between

expansion and contraction. We expect the March 3rd release for February to be very different. We would

be surprised if manufacturing is able to expand under current circumstances.

For now, we expect defensive assets to continue to perform well. A tail-wind of momentum, is likely to

introduce gold into portfolios that have largely ignored the asset class in the past. Meanwhile cyclical

assets will struggle to perform under the cloud of doubt placed on demand. However, should this just be

another false dawn, for example if the contagion is contained and vaccines are developed quickly, we

could see fantastic bargain hunting opportunities open up. There are some commodities like, oil which

under the auspiciousness of a cartel that controls 60% of global production, that could get a boost in the

near term from a production cut.

Nitesh Shah

Director

Aneeka Gupta

Director

Mobeen Tahir

Associate Director

Current

Price2

Returns

(-1 Mth)

Positioning4

(- 1 Mth)

Energy prices have come under pressure from coronavirus-related fears. However, with the

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) ready to act, we could get a

bounce in oil prices if the cartel delivers more than the market expects. A decline in roll yields in the

days leading up the publication of this report, could be reversed if OPEC acts with conviction.

Precious metals posted another strong month boosted by safe-haven demand. Both gold and silver

had a strong month as the spread of coronavirus globally ignited risk aversion among investors

prompting them to seek haven investments. Palladium however lead the way yet again continuing its

strong momentum from the previous month as strong fundamentals continue to support the metal.

Agricultural commodity prices slumped over the period, apart from of sugar and cocoa. Higher supply

deficits in the current crop year supported sugar and cocoa prices. While a significant expansion of US

corn and soybean acreage by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) dampened the outlook for

corn and soybean prices.

Industrial metals were down last month on diminished Chinese demand. With coronavirus disrupting

supply chains and causing manufacturing activity to pull back in China, industrial metals had a difficult

month.

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21 Feb

Score

17 Jan

Score

Inventories3

(- 3 Mths)

Price vs 200

days MARoll Yield

5

Bloomberg TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Friday 21 February 2020. Source:

WisdomTree, Bloomberg

The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg

- Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this

report. 2 All prices are futures prices to Friday 21 Feb 20. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past

6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Feb 18, 2020 and Feb 21, 2020 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front

month and second month futures prices on report date.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Precious Metals Livestock Industrial Metals

Energy Agriculture

Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Agriculture Agriculture - February Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals - February Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Energy Energy - February Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Precious Metals Precious Metals - February Returns*

2

Source: Bloomberg

*Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Friday 21 February 2020.


Last month, we highlighted how industrial metals had rebounded after a protracted period of trade

wars related weakness. This uptick was driven by the eagerly awaited ‘Phase One’ trade deal

between China and the US and supported by positive economic data from China and risk appetite in

global markets as evident in equity markets. Industrial metals were not allowed much recovery time

before coronavirus concerns gripped global markets and flipped the fortunes for the sector yet again.

This resulted in another difficult month for industrial metals.

Zinc was the worst performer among the group falling by 14.9% during the month. Inventories rose

sharply with manufacturing remaining largely suspended in China beyond the extended Chinese New

Year holiday as coronavirus kept several parts of the country in a lockdown state causing supply chains

to be disrupted both locally and internationally. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study

Group (ILZSG), zinc is expected to remain in a supply surplus this year. We however believe that

resumption in manufacturing activity and further positive trade related developments this year can

provide relief to zinc from current price levels.

Nickel too was unable to withstand the headwinds facing industrial metals last month and fell by 8.4%.

Nickel inventories have risen sharply in the last two months with supply chains and manufacturing

activity curtailed, particularly in China. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), nickel

is expected to remain in a supply deficit this year. We believe that recent price weakness creates

further opportunities for the metal to rise as its fundamentals remain strong given its increasing demand

in batteries and relatively limited sources of supply.

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Sugar prices staged the highest performance among the agricultural commodities rising 7.1% owing to

expectations of a sizeable supply deficit in the current crop year. Thailand, the world’s second largest

sugar exporter after Brazil is experiencing its most severe drought in decades. Concerns about

production in Thailand is pushing estimates for the sugar deficit even higher. Net speculative positioning

on sugar futures has risen considerably and is approaching more than 1 standard deviation above its

five-year average lending a tailwind to sugar prices. However higher sugar prices are likely to drive

production higher in the next season in 2020/21. In part because a higher proportion of the sugar cane

could be applied for ethanol production in Brazil. Petrobras hiked gasoline prices on 19th February at its

refineries by 3% making it more attractive to produce ethanol in place of sugar.

Cocoa prices continued its upward trajectory. While cocoa grinding data in January remained weak

across North America, Europe and Brazil, apart from Asia. Cocoa prices are benefiting in part by the

expected deficit in the 2019/20 balance and the Living Income Differential (LID) policy put in place by

Ivory Coast and Ghana. The LID policy announced in Q3 2019, mandates cocoa crop year sales in

2020/21 from Ivory Coast and Ghana to trade at a minimum US$400/t (per tonne) above the

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) futures price. Cocoa processors and the chocolate industry have so far

complied with LID. However, cocoa prices could come under pressure as demand tends to be sensitive

above the US$3000/t and consumers are likely to source from other regions which could weigh on

grinding activity.

Sector Overview

Brent oil prices have fallen from a peak of US$68/bbl in the first week of January to US$56/bbl currently

(24/02/2020). That is all attributable to fears of coronavirus destroying demand for energy. The sharp

decline in flights, road journeys and factory activity (which can all be anecdotally monitored using

satellites and thermal imagery) in China lend support to this view despite little hard data currently

available.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which collectively controls

around 60% of global oil production recognises the issue. The Joint Technical Committee has already

recommended to the group to cut 600k barrels of oil per day. That’s on top of the 2.1mn barrel cut

(relative to October 2018) that is already in place. OPEC policy ministers are due to meet on 5th March

and the larger group on 6th March. We expect them to not only endorse this recommendation but cut

deeper. In part, that is because more data on the grim situation now will be available than when the

technical committee met a few weeks ago. Saudi Arabia has historically taken on voluntary cuts that

goes beyond what they formally sign up to do. In the last policy meeting - the first for the new Saudi

Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman – Saudi Arabia announced the value of the intended

voluntary cuts. As long as other countries sign up to cut a little, Saudi Arabia stands ready to cut

enough to balance markets.

We believe that the current backwardation in the Brent oil futures curve is generated by the fact that

OPEC is ready to intervene. However, at the time of writing, that backwardation is close to

evaporating. If OPEC cuts deeper than 600k barrels per day, we believe that stronger backwardation

can be restored. Rolls yields can be an important component of returns for investors. For example, we

estimate that out of the +34% return on the Bloomberg Brent Commodity Subindex (total return series),

+8% came from roll yield (WisdomTree calculation from 31/12/2018 to 31/12/2019).

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Precious metals were clear winners in an otherwise difficult month for commodities. With more cases of

coronavirus becoming apparent globally, investors have turned to historically safe-haven assets to

protect their portfolios. Gold rallied 5.6% in the month to 21 February and is continuing to surge since

then. Speculative positioning on gold futures exchanges now stands at a record 388k net long

contracts highlighting this defensive investor sentiment. Silver followed suit, as it typically does when

gold rallies, with a price appreciation of 4.1% over the month. While silver’s demand as an industrial

metal is expected to face headwinds from coronavirus given the potential slowdown in manufacturing,

its precious metal properties and correlation to gold is expected to offset these pressures. Silver’s rally

also typically lags that of gold. Thus, a widening gold to silver ratio is normally a good indicator for

bullishness on silver.

Another measure making a parabolic ascent is the palladium to platinum ratio. Speculative positioning

in platinum has also been on the rise in recent months as investors perceive the precious metal as

another safe-haven asset. This investor sentiment however has not resulted in a proportionate increase

in prices as platinum continues to face industrial headwinds with its demand in diesel auto catalysts on

the decline. On the other hand, palladium continues to rally owing to a strong supply deficit and

healthy demand for higher loadings of the metal in gasoline auto catalysts to meet tighter emission

standards.

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-12%

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Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions (over past month)1

Source: Bloomberg

Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories (over past 3 months)2

Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields (front to next month)3

Source: Bloomberg

Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 200 day moving av. (dma)4

Source: Bloomberg

1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month. 2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %).

3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on Feb 21, 2020.4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 200 day moving average on Feb 21, 2020.

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Technical Overview (as of Feb 21, 2020)

Net speculative positioning on soybean futures declined 941% owing to a rise in short

positions by 72% underscoring bearish sentiment towards soybeans. USDA raised its

estimate for global ending soybeans stocks by 2.2mn tons higher versus the prior

month owing to higher stocks for China and Brazil. US soybean acreage is also set to

rise by nearly 9 million acres which should increase the soybean crop.

Net speculative positioning on coffee futures declined 113.9% after a steep rise in

short positions by 158% over the period. The upcoming crop in Brazil is from a high

yield year in the two-year crop cycle due to which considerably more supply is likely

to reach the market from Brazil in the coming months causing further downward

pressure on coffee prices.

Net speculative positioning for copper fell during the month, becoming negative on

COMEX from being positive briefly the month before as investor sentiment remained

generally bearish for industrial metals last month.

Positioning in heating oil (Ultra-low Sulphur Diesel), is more than 1 standard deviation

below the 5-year historic average with net shorts standing at 19,986, a 205% jump

from 6,543 last month. Unseasonable warm weather in the US accounts for most of

the pessimism. Also, the demand boost expected from the International Marine

Organization 2020 regulation that came into play in January 2020 fell short of the

mark as coronavirus has choked off some shipping demand.

Net speculative positioning rose by 14.9% for silver and 13.4% for gold over the

month. Risk aversion among investors drove them to seek safe-haven assets bringing

the spotlight on both precious metals.

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The short end of the sugar futures curve moved further into backwardation providing

a positive roll yield of 3.1% owing to expectations of a sizeable supply deficit in the

current crop year.

The short end of the cocoa futures curve moved further into backwardation

providing a positive roll yield of 2.8% with the US$400/t futures premium going into

effect for new crop sales this October.

As of 21st February 2020, the front end of the Brent futures curve was still providing a

positive 1% roll yield. However, at the time of writing (25th February 2020), the front

end of the curve has dropped considerably, will little backwardation remaining.

However, we believe the OPEC+ meeting on 5th/6th March to be a catalyst to

restore stronger backwardation into the curve.

Nickel inventories have built up considerably with a 236.3% increase in the last 3

months. Indonesia, which produces nearly a quarter of nickel’s global supply,

announced in September last year its decision to bring forward its ban on nickel ore

exports from January 2022 to January 2020. This possibly prompted a large

withdrawal of nickel inventory from exchanges at the time. With falling nickel prices

and a slowdown in manufacturing, nickel inventories have risen sharply again.

Zinc inventories have also increased materially, particularly in the last month on

weak industrial demand. A similar trend has been seen across most base metals as

stockpiles have risen while supply chains remain disrupted in China and beyond.

Gasoline inventory grew 17% over the past 3 months and now is very close to a

standard deviation above the seasonal average for this time of year.

Source: Bloomberg

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Sugar and cocoa prices have both risen above their 50 and 200-day moving

average (dma), generally seen as a bullish technical signal.

Natural gas is trading 17% below the 200-day moving average as unseasonably

warm weather in the US this winter has led to a sharp drop in demand.

Following a 16.7% price rally last month driven by strong industrial fundamentals,

palladium is now trading at 51.3% above its 200-dma.

Gold and silver are trading at 11.6% and 9.4% respectively above their 200-dma

after strong demand from investors seeking safe-haven assets amid the coronavirus

outbreak.


-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Nickel

Zinc

Tin

Gasoline

Aluminium

WTI Oil

Heating Oil

Copper - LME

Copper - Comex

Natural Gas

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Palladium

Sugar

Cocoa

Gold

Silver

Lead

Heating Oil

Zinc

Nickel

Natural Gas

% < 200 dma % > 200 dma

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Sugar

Cocoa

Live Cattle

Brent Oil

Heating Oil

Soybean Oil

Coffee

Feeder Cattle

Gasoline

Lean Hogs

Contango Backwardation

-1000% -800% -600% -400% -200% 0% 200%

Wheat

Cocoa

Sugar

Silver

Gold

Feeder Cattle

Coffee

Heating Oil

Copper (COMEX)

Soybeans

4 23 42 61 4 3

Unit ROLL YIELDS2 Unit Exchange 21-Feb 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month

Energy EnergyWTI Oil 53 USD/bbl. -8.5% -8.9% -4.1% -6.3% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -0.2% -0.5% -0.1% 0.3%

Brent Oil 59 USD/bbl. -9.4% -8.6% -3.0% -12.8% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE 1.0% 0.2% 1.2% 1.6%

Natural Gas 1.9 USD/MMBtu 0.5% -25.8% -12.2% -29.4% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -0.6% -1.0% 0.3% -2.1%

Gasoline 1.7 USd/gal. 0.9% -3.2% -2.6% 2.2% Gasoline USd/gal. NYMEX -6.3% -8.3% -0.9% 0.4%

Heating Oil 1.7 USd/gal. -7.8% -13.3% -9.2% -17.2% Heating Oil USd/gal. NYMEX 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% 0.1%

Carbon 25.6 EUR/MT 2.9% 6.8% -1.7% 36.6% Carbon EUR/MT ICE -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%

Agriculture

Wheat 5.5 USd/bu. -5.2% 8.3% 19.1% 13.3% Wheat USd/bu. CBOT -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.6%

Corn 3.8 USd/bu. -2.7% 2.3% 4.0% 0.4% Corn USd/bu. CBOT -1.0% -1.1% -1.5% -2.8%

Soybeans 8.9 USd/bu. -2.8% -1.2% 3.5% -2.3% Soybeans USd/bu. CBOT -0.9% -1.1% -1.5% -1.6%

Sugar 0.2 USd/lb. 7.1% 23.6% 36.9% 17.7% Sugar USd/lb. NYBOT 3.1% 3.5% 0.4% -0.9%

Cotton 0.7 USd/lb. -0.4% 11.5% 15.1% -4.5% Cotton USd/lb. NYBOT -0.1% -1.5% -1.5% -3.4%

Coffee 1.1 USd/lb. -2.0% -5.6% 17.2% 13.3% Coffee USd/lb. NYBOT -1.3% -2.0% -2.0% -0.9%

Soybean Oil 0.3 USd/lb. -6.4% -0.2% 6.6% 0.5% Soybean Oil USd/lb. CBOT -1.2% -1.2% -1.0% -0.6%

Cocoa 2,922 USD/MT 3.7% 8.4% 33.4% 29.5% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT 2.8% 0.6% -0.6% 2.0%

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals

Aluminum 1,701 USD/MT -6.1% -2.3% -3.5% -10.1% Aluminum USD/MT LME -0.5% -0.7% -0.4% 0.9%

Copper 2.6 USd/lb. -6.6% -0.6% 0.9% -10.0% Copper USd/lb. COMEX -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.5%

Copper (LME) 5,758 USD/MT -6.3% -1.1% 0.6% -10.0% Copper (LME) USD/MT LME 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%

Zinc 2,102 USD/MT -14.9% -9.2% -8.5% -22.3% Zinc USD/MT LME -0.3% -0.3% 0.2% 0.4%

Nickel 12,470 USD/MT -8.4% -13.7% -21.4% -2.6% Nickel USD/MT LME -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

Lead 1,826 USD/MT -7.0% -6.6% -12.6% -11.4% Lead USD/MT LME -0.2% 1.3% 0.2% -0.2%

Tin 16,627 USD/MT -5.3% 1.4% 2.3% -22.6% Tin USD/MT LME 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

Precious Metals Precious Metals

Gold 1,645 USD/t oz. 5.6% 12.4% 9.3% 24.3% Gold USD/t oz. COMEX -0.3% -0.2% -0.4% -0.5%

Silver 18.5 USD/t oz. 4.1% 8.6% 8.0% 17.3% Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% -0.8%

Platinum 976 USD/t oz. -2.6% 6.4% 13.8% 18.1% Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%

Palladium 2,605 USD/t oz. 16.7% 50.4% 77.8% 80.3% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%

Livestock Livestock

Live Cattle 1.2 USd/lb. -5.3% 0.3% 16.6% -6.2% Live Cattle USd/lb. CME 1.2% 0.4% -0.7% -4.6%

Lean Hogs 0.7 USd/lb. -0.5% 10.5% 5.9% 19.8% Lean Hogs USd/lb. CME -9.5% -13.1% -8.8% -10.1%

Feeder Cattle 1.4 USd/lb. -3.4% -3.7% 2.1% -2.1% Feeder Cattle USd/lb. CME -1.3% -2.0% 0.3% 2.1%

EnergyE

nEnergy

WTI Oil 410,285 447,526 528,423 437,063 343,674 Oil - US 442,883 -4.1% 3% -2% 1%

Brent Oil** 166,283 196,999 325,501 160,820 45,960 Oil - OECD Europe** 362 5% 1.1% 0.5% 2%

Natural Gas -226,077 -114,557 -252,118 -198,110 -33,284 Natural Gas - DOE 2,343 7.8% -20% -36% -16%

Gasoline 118,334 73,939 129,000 61,799 92,275 Gasoline - DOE 259,078 1.2% 0% 17% 11%

Heating Oil -19,986 13,448 -6,543 -194 -10,151 Heating Oil - DOE 9,746 -22% -11% -15% -7%

Agriculture Industrial Metals

Wheat 60,302 -39,843 45,919 12,418 -33,417 Aluminum 1,548,610 -34% 1% 7% 16%

Corn -16,186 38,815 -16,915 40,972 -31,783 Aluminum - LME 1,138,975 -40% -13% -3% 20%

Soybeans -56,409 33,101 6,707 -41,907 -22,389 Aluminium - SHFE 409,635 -9% 86% 45% 6%

Sugar 202,197 47,583 157,724 -123,224 -7,489 Copper 491,001 -10% 48% 23% -8%

Cotton 37,489 54,198 38,396 -30,937 -6,299 Copper - LME 163,425 -36% 0% -26% -50%

Coffee -5,114 -15,291 36,864 -36,212 -56,943 Copper - SHFE 298,619 61% 122% 120% 83%

Soybean Oil 50,404 38,206 111,398 34,327 56,230 Copper - COMEX 28,957 -72% -16% -28% -31%

Cocoa 80,931 20,616 62,686 -9,771 10,080 Nickel - LME 224,700 -30% 21% 236% 50%

Industrial Metals5 Zinc 218,589 -47% 139% 88% 51%

Copper (COMEX) -41,362 1,817 6,035 -50,312 -126 Zinc - LME 75,425 -74% 48% 27% 6%

Copper (LME) 37,952 35,018 55,039 17,575 39,657 Zinc - SHFE 143,164 17% 254% 151% 94%

Aluminum 161,575 156,756 183,367 152,787 158,227 Lead 105,616 -39% 12% -1% -9%

Nickel 28,256 20,261 28,786 31,073 8,728 Lead - LME 66,850 -53% 1% 0% -16%

Zinc 39,001 44,919 56,387 31,994 49,591 Lead - SHFE 38,766 25% 37% -1% 6%

Lead 57,368 52,632 56,719 57,874 42,520 Tin 14,218 61% 2% 37% 19%

Tin 9,785 8,111 8,735 8,926 8,764 Tin - LME 7,435 73% 5% 14% 20%

Precious Metals Tin - SHFE 6,783 50% -2% 77% 18%

Gold 388,803 160,429 342,946 349,647 170,628A

gAgriculture

Silver 80,646 39,976 70,160 53,429 51,332 Wheat - USDA 288,030 47.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.9%

Platinum 63,093 25,191 69,159 19,964 2,680 Corn - USDA 296,840 103% -0.3% 0.3% -3.5%

Palladium 5,255 12,847 9,932 9,722 14,495 Soybeans - USDA 98,860 57% 2.3% 3.6% -3%

Livestock Sugar - USDA 49,580 38% - - 4%

Live Cattle 59,551 80,087 111,301 31,177 139,114 Cotton - USDA 82,120 15% 3.2% 1.6% -0.4%

Lean Hogs 28,382 40,141 29,635 63,924 5,967 Coffee - USDA 34,976 -3% - 4.3% 4%

Feeder Cattle 823 6,569 10,177 -3,726 621 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,410 -17% 2.1% - -8%

1Performance of front month futures from 21 Feb 19 (1 Year), 21 Aug 19 (6 Month), 21 Nov 19 (3 Month) and 21 Jan 20 (1 Month) to 21 Feb 20.

2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 21 Nov 19 (3 Month), 21 Jan 20 (1 Month), 14 Feb 20 (1 Week), 21 Feb 20.

4

Summary Tables

INVENTORY LEVELS4

Current 1 Year

5 Yr

Average

PRICES1 3 Month

1 Month

6 Month1 Month

6 Month

3Net positions in number of contracts.

4Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory.

For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report month over the past 5 years. SHFE started reporting inventory data from April 2015. 5All Industrial metals positioning

data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 30 January 2018 (first available date) under post-MIFID rules. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January

2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 3 month lag with current = Nov 2019.


Agriculture

1 YearCFTC NET POSITIONING3 6 MonthCurrent 3 Month

5 Yr

Average1 MonthCurrent

T

Agriculture

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree



·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 5

CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions

All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Feb 18, 2020 and Feb 21, 2020 respectively.

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Cocoa

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

-1x stdv

-2x stdv

1x stdv

2x stdv

5 Yr Average

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Corn

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/bu.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Soybean Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/lb.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Sugar


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

8

9

9

10

10

11

11

12

12

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Soybeans


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Wheat


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Coffee


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Cotton


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average


Energy



Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

6Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. All commodity futures price data is denominated in

USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then.


0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Heating Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Natural Gas

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Brent Oil

ICE managed money net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

30

50

70

90

110

130

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Gasoline

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1x stdv

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

WTI Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Industrial Metals





7Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. LME non-commercial net positions from 30 January

2018 post MIFID II data and respective graphs represent daily data. All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Copper (LME)

LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Zinc


1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Lead


9,800

10,800

11,800

12,800

13,800

14,800

15,800

16,800

17,800

18,800

-14

-9

-4

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Nickel


1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Aluminum


1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Copper (COMEX)


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

15,500

16,500

17,500

18,500

19,500

20,500

21,500

22,500

0

5

10

15

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Tin


Precious Metals



Livestock



8Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. respective graphs represent daily data. All

commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Lean Hogs


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Live Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Feeder Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

12

19

26

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Silver

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Gold


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

450

950

1,450

1,950

2,450

2,950

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Palladium


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

1,750

1,950

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

Platinum


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Agriculture

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

·Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

9

Inventories

Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2017/2018 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Corn - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections vs.

previous = -0.5%

0

50

100

150

200

250

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Coffee - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections

vs. previous = 5.2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Cotton - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


vs. previous = 3.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybeans - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections vs. previous = 3.2%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybeans - Ending StocksAnnual data in , from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections vs. previous = 3.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Coffee - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln bags (60 kg), from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections

vs. previous = 1.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

83

/84

85

/86

87/8

8

89/9

0

91/9

2

93/9

4

95/9

6

97/9

8

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05/0

6

07/0

8

09/1

0

11/1

2

13/1

4

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Cotton - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln 480 lb Bales, from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections vs.

previous = 1.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Corn - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections

vs. previous = 0.9




Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

10Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Wheat - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 0.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01

/02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10

/11

11

/12

12

/13

13

/14

14

/15

15

/16

16

/17

17

/18

18

/19

19

/20

Sugar - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1998 to 2019


vs. previous = 0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybean Oil - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 0.1%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Wheat - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = -0.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Sugar - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = -11.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybean Oil - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 0.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

Cocoa - InventoryAnnual data in '000 metric tons, from 1981 to 2019

Industrial Metals


Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Livestock


11Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Tin Inventory

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes) SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data in '000 MT, from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Lead Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data, from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

0

50

100

150

200

250

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Nickel InventoryDaily data in '000 MT, from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

406080

100120140160180200220240

Feb

19

Ma

r 1

9

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 19

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Feb

20

Zinc Inventory



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Aluminum Inventory



80130180230280330380430480530580

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 19

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)


Copper Inventory

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

85/8

6

87/8

8

89/9

0

91

/92

93

/94

95/9

6

97/9

8

99/0

0

01/0

2

03

/04

05

/06

07/0

8

09/1

0

11/1

2

13

/14

15

/16

17/1

8

19/2

0

Lean Hogs InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2019

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Live Cattle InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2019

Energy

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: IEA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

12Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag.


300

350

400

450

500

550

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

US Oil Inventory

5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2019 2020

Weekly data in mln barrels, from Feb 15 to Feb 20

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Gasoline Inventory



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951

Natural Gas Inventory


Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from Feb 15 to Feb 20

6

11

16

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Heating Oil Inventory



280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory


Monthly data in mln barrels, from Nov 14 to Nov 19

Agriculture




·


13

Commodities Front Month Futures and

Trading Volumes

Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Cocoa Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)

Daily data in USD/MT, from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$3.2

$3.4

$3.6

$3.8

$4.0

$4.2

$4.4

$4.6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Corn Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/bu., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$0.20

$0.22

$0.24

$0.26

$0.28

$0.30

$0.32

$0.34

$0.36

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/lb., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

$0.16

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Sugar Front Month Futures Price



$0.7

$0.8

$0.9

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Coffee Front Month Futures Price



$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

-150

350

850

1,350

1,850

2,350

2,850

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Cotton Front Month Futures Price



$7.0

$7.5

$8.0

$8.5

$9.0

$9.5

$10.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Soybeans Front Month Futures Price



$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Wheat Front Month Futures Price



Energy




Carbon


14Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$3.4

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$1.3

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

-$1,000

$4,000

$9,000

$14,000

$19,000

$24,000

$29,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

3.4 €

8.4 €

13.4 €

18.4 €

23.4 €

28.4 €

€0

€200

€400

€600

€800

€1,000

€1,200

€1,400

€1,600

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Carbon Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in EUR/MT, from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

$1.9

$2.0

$2.1

$2.2

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Gasoline Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

Industrial Metals







$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

-$4,000

$1,000

$6,000

$11,000

$16,000

$21,000

$26,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Aluminum Front Month Futures Price



$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

$3,100

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Zinc Front Month Futures Price



$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Nickel Front Month Futures Price



$2.3

$2.4

$2.5

$2.6

$2.7

$2.8

$2.9

$3.0

$3.1

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 1

9

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price



$15,000

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$23,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Tin Front Month Futures Price



$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Lead Front Month Futures Price



$5,200

$5,400

$5,600

$5,800

$6,000

$6,200

$6,400

$6,600

$6,800

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) 200 dma (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS)


Precious Metals



Livestock





$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

$1.55

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$0.32

$0.42

$0.52

$0.62

$0.72

$0.82

$0.92

$1.02

$200

$700

$1,200

$1,700

$2,200

$2,700

$3,200

$3,700

$4,200

$4,700

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price



$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Platinum Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/t oz., from 21 Feb 19 to 21 Feb 20

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Gold Front Month Futures Price



$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Palladium Front Month Futures Price



$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Silver Front Month Futures Price



Agriculture




·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

17

Futures Curves

Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

$2,800

$2,900

$3,000

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10Maturity (Month)

Cocoa Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Coffee Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$3.5

$3.6

$3.7

$3.8

$3.9

$4.0

$4.1

$4.2

$4.3

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Corn Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/bu.

$0.58

$0.60

$0.62

$0.64

$0.66

$0.68

$0.70

$0.72

$0.74

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Cotton Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$0.290

$0.300

$0.310

$0.320

$0.330

$0.340

$0.350

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

Maturity (Month)

Soybean Oil Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$8.7

$8.8

$8.9

$9.0

$9.1

$9.2

$9.3

$9.4

$9.5

$9.6

$9.7

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

Maturity (Month)

Soybeans Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/bu.

$0.110

$0.115

$0.120

$0.125

$0.130

$0.135

$0.140

$0.145

$0.150

$0.155

$0.160

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Sugar Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$4.5

$4.7

$4.9

$5.1

$5.3

$5.5

$5.7

$5.9

$6.1

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

Maturity (Month)

Wheat Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/bu.

Energy




Carbon


18Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$54

$56

$58

$60

$62

$64

$66

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Brent Oil Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/bbl.

$49

$51

$53

$55

$57

$59

$61

$63

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

WTI Oil Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/bbl.

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$2.7

$2.9

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Natural Gas Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MMBtu

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

$1.90

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M1

1

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Gasoline Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/gal.

$1.60

$1.65

$1.70

$1.75

$1.80

$1.85

$1.90

$1.95

$2.00

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Heating Oil Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/gal.

17.0 €

19.0 €

21.0 €

23.0 €

25.0 €

27.0 €

29.0 €

31.0 €

33.0 €

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

Maturity (Month)

Carbon Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

EUR/MT

Industrial Metals







$1,660

$1,760

$1,860

$1,960

$2,060

$2,160

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Aluminum Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

$1,800

$1,850

$1,900

$1,950

$2,000

$2,050

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Lead Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

$2.55

$2.60

$2.65

$2.70

$2.75

$2.80

$2.85

$2.90

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M1

0

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

M24

M25

Maturity (Month)

Copper (COMEX) Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$5,600

$5,700

$5,800

$5,900

$6,000

$6,100

$6,200

$6,300

$6,400M

1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Copper (LME) Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

$15,500

$16,000

$16,500

$17,000

$17,500

$18,000

$18,500

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Tin Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

$11,500

$12,300

$13,100

$13,900

$14,700

$15,500

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Nickel Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Zinc Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/MT

Precious Metals



Livestock





$16.0

$16.5

$17.0

$17.5

$18.0

$18.5

$19.0

$19.5

$20.0

$20.5

$21.0

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

Maturity (Month)

Silver Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/t oz.

$1,430

$1,480

$1,530

$1,580

$1,630

$1,680

$1,730

$1,780

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

Maturity (Month)

Gold Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/t oz.

$860

$880

$900

$920

$940

$960

$980

$1,000

$1,020

$1,040

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Platinum Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/t oz.

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Palladium Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USD/t oz.

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Lean Hogs Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Live Cattle Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

$1.34

$1.39

$1.44

$1.49

$1.54

$1.59

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Feeder Cattle Futures

21 Feb 20 14 Feb 20 21 Jan 20 21 Nov 19

USd/lb.

C

Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained

CALENDAR

WisdomTree - Recent Blogs

19-Feb-20 Pierre Debru Defensive Assets: The duration your portfolio needs

17-Feb-20 Kevin Flanagan Going Viral

12-Feb-20 Pierre Debru Defensive Assets: Are all equity strategies created equal?

11-Feb-20 Jason Guthrie Why Blockchain matters

05-Feb-20 Pierre Debru Defensive Assets: Is playing too safe too risky?

28-Jan-20 Aneeka Gupta Implications of the viral outbreak in China

21-Jan-20 David Linden Battery Storage: Driving the Energy Transition

17-Jan-20 Nitesh Shah Gold outlook for Q4 2020: Trade turbulence and Middle East tensions still to dominate

15-Jan-20 Mobeen Tahir Another geopolitical jolt for oil markets?

13-Jan-20 Jesper Koll Japan in 2020: Surprises on the horizon?

08-Jan-20 Pierre Debru Quality Investing, an All-Weather Approach

17-Dec-19 WisdomTree Was this Cloud grown organically?

16-Dec-19 Jesper Koll Beyond Abenomics

WisdomTree - Past Issues of Commodity Monthly Monitor

Dec- Jan 2020 Research Team Commodities moving beyond trade and geopolitics

Oct - Nov 2019 Research Team Commodities wait while equities rally

Sep - Oct 2019 Research Team Phase1 of trade deal bifurcates commodity markets

Aug - Sep 2019 Research Team Jitters in the oil market and beyond

Jul - Aug 2019 Research Team Trump and Xi's Midas touch

The research notes are for qualified investors only.

Key Reports

Current Next release

11-Feb-20 10-Mar-20 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

11-Feb-20 10-Mar-20 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

12-Feb-20 11-Mar-20 OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report

11-Feb-20 09-Mar-20 IEA IEA Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER

Important Information

Communications issued in the European Economic Area (“EEA”): This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree Ireland Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

Communications issued in jurisdictions outside of the EEA: This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

WisdomTree Ireland Limited and WisdomTree UK Limited are each referred to as “WisdomTree” (as applicable). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.

For professional clients only. The information contained in this document is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or shares. This document should not

be used as the basis for any investment decision. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any

decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof.

Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by WisdomTree based on publicly available information. Although WisdomTree endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this

document, WisdomTree does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this document make no warranties or representation of any kind relating

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or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.

This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding current expectations or beliefs with regards to the performance of certain assets classes and/or sectors. Forward looking statements

are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.

WisdomTree strongly recommends that you do not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of

such strategy would have been. However, back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and

should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1, 0, or 1

depending on whether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not

available or not relevant, scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight

significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance.

The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow:

- price vs. 200 days moving average: 1 when price is above 200dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 200dma and return is negative, 0

otherwise

- % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, 0 when no change

- % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, 0 when no change

- roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, 0 when no change

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-02-19/defensive-assets-the-duration-your-portfolio-needs

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/blog/author/Kevin Flanagan

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-02-17/going-viral

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-02-12/defensive-assets-are-all-equity-strategies-created-equal

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/blog/author/Jason Guthrie

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-02-11/why-blockchain-matters

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-02-05/defensive-assets-is-playing-too-safe-too-risky

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-28/implications-of-the-viral-outbreak-in-china

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-21/battery-storage-driving-the-energy-transition

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-17/gold-outlook-for-q4-2020-trade-turbulence-and-middle-east-tensions-still-to-dominate

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-15/another-geopolitical-jolt-for-oil-markets

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-13/japan-in-2020-surprises-on-the-horizon

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-01-08/quality-investing-an-all-weather-approach

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-12-17/was-this-cloud-grown-organically

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-12-16/beyond-abenomics

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2020,-d-,01_commodity-monthly-monitor.pdf





https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0919.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_september_2015.pdf

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

·

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