Visualizing Success

Planning for the Future: Committee Meeting #1 - Creating the Baseline for Solutions

October 23, 2013

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PART 1:

INTRODUCTIONS

Activity 1 - Committee Introductions

• At your Table the following items are in a plastic bag:

• 10 Spaghetti noodles

• 30 inches of string

• 30 inches of masking tape

• 1 Marshmallow

• Each table will try build a free standing tower with only the materials stated in the list above.

• The goal is to build a free standing structure that has the whole marshmallow on top –the team that has the tallest free standing structure will be considered the best engineer/architect

• Time to Complete – 12 minutes

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Learn about this activity: TedTalksTom Wujec: Build a tower, build a team

http://www.ted.com/talks/tom_wujec_build_a_tower.html

About – Visualizing Success

• Founded in 2003

• Professional educational planning firm

• Expertise in multiple disciplines

• Over 20 years of planning experience

• Over 80 years of education experience

• Over 20 years of GIS experience

• Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota

• Projection accuracy of 97% or greater

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VISUALIZING

SUCCESS

David StoakesEd.D

Susan SwiftPh.D.

Robert SchwarzCEO, AICP, REFP

Planning

Educators

Cole Andrews Grady Morrison

Heather Huscher

GIS Analysts

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VISUALIZING

SUCCESS

Agenda

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Part 1: Introductions

Part 2: Committee Information• Ground Rules

• Parking Lot

• Sandbox

• Facility Timeline

• How Did We Get Here

• Boundary Process

• Boundary Criteria and BOE Prioritization

Part 3: Enrollment Demographics Development Projections• Sophisticated Forecast Model

• Geographic Information Systems

• Components

• Projections

Part 4: Next Steps• Homework

PART 2:COMMITTEE INFORMATION

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Presentation Goals

1. Provide information that will help the Committee understand the following:

Boundary Process

Community Values / Vision / Criteria

Enrollment / Demographics / Projections

Expectations of Committee

2. Provide a transparent dialogue between RSP and the committee, so the community will better understand what is being discussed at each meeting. No decision has been made by the BOE or Administration.

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Activity 2 - Establishing Ground Rules

Ground Rules:

• What are the common areas everyone should agree with

• How everyone should conduct themselves

• Guidelines all committee members should abide by

TIME to Complete – 5 to 10 minutes

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Parking Lot

• Write the on the provided sticky notes

• Stick them on the sheet labeled “Parking Lot”

• These items can be questions, comments and topics/issues

to be answered by RSP and/or Administration

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Clicker Questions

These questions will happen throughout the presentation:

• See if you are still awake

• Get immediate feedback

• Data will help with future discussions

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Facility Timeline

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High School

• New High School Opens in 2016/17

• Grade configuration remains 10th to 12th grade

Middle School

• Middle School relocates to current High School in 2016/17

• Grade configuration remains 6th to 9th grade

Elementary School

• Wallace Elementary relocates to current Middle School in 2017/18

• Early Childhood locates to current Middle School in 2017/18

• Grade Configuration remains Kdg to 5th grade

• Comprehensive facilities

How Did The District Get Here

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• Residential development continues

• Enrollment continues to increase

• Elementary schools over Mid Capacity in 2016/17 include: Beaver Creek and Horizon

• Middle school over Mid Capacity in 2016/17

• High School over Mid Capacity in 2016/17

• Bond Referendum approved that does the following:

- New High School in 2016/17

- Middle School relocates to current High School 2016/17

- Wallace Elementary relocates to current Middle School in 2017/18

- Early Childhood locates to current Middle School in 2017/18

Listed Below are the items discussed to by the Board of Education (BOE) on September 23, 2013, establishing a framework to help guide the Committee in creating a recommendation to the BOE that will create more opportunities for students:

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• Wallace Elementary and Early Childhood locates to current Middle School in 2017/18

• Better educational opportunity for equitable student experience at each school

• Change will be difficult, but need to happen to improve student opportunity

• Grade configuration remains the same (Kdg-5th, 6th-9th,10th-12th)

• Plan for future residential development in boundary creation

• Utilize all the District’s resources

• Open enrollment students can attend as long as it does not negatively impact resources

• Student options (Transfers) are to be an administrative decision

• Some boundary changes need to happen sooner than 2017/18

Committee Sandbox

• 3 Board of Education

Meetings

• 5 Committee Meetings

• 2 Public Forums

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Collaborative

Process

Schedule for meetings will

happen between administration

and RSP

RSP Boundary Criteria for Process

The following are always to be considered:

• Exceptional education must take place at each facility in every option

• The goal is to minimize subjective comments and rumors in order to obtain BOE goals and priorities, and yet provide for the educational need of each student

Boundary Criteria Example (Alphabetized):1. Contiguous Planning Areas2. Demographic Considerations3. Duration of Boundaries4. Feeder System Considerations5. Fiscal Consideration - Capital6. Fiscal Consideration - Operational7. Neighborhoods Intact8. Projected Enrollment/Building Utilization9. Students Impacted by Boundary Change10. Transportation Considerations

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• When it is possible, contiguous attendance areas should be maintained.

• Compact grouping of planning areas should be maintained.

• All areas of the district should be assigned to an ES/MS/HS attendance

Contiguous Attendance Areas

Not Contiguous Contiguous

• Demographic diversity could be examined to minimize overloading any school with students that may require significant resources.

• These variables could include census HH salary average, home values, ethnicity, or Free/Reduced Lunch.

Demographic Considerations

• This factor addresses the ability of an attendance area to accommodate the anticipated enrollments for a projected period of time.

• Where possible, attendance areas should be stabilized to limit the number of boundary changes experienced by students.

• In established areas with little or no demographic change projected, boundaries should be planned to last for a significant period of time.

Capacity and Educational Programming will determine future building utilization.

Duration of Boundaries

Feeder System Considerations

Incomplete Feeder Complete Feeder

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• Where possible, create boundaries between

elementary, middle, and high schools in an effort to

have as many schools as possible at each educational

level advance students as one group to the next higher

educational level.

• When changing boundaries, where possible, avoid

small numbers of students being moved from a larger

group when transitioning from elementary to middle

school or from middle to high school.

• The impact on capital costs should be a consideration.

• This factor addresses:

• New facility construction

• Building additions and/or remodeling

• Mobile classrooms

• Demountable wall relocations

• Other capital costs.

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Fiscal Consideration - Capital

• Where possible, boundaries should be planned to maximize district resources in a fiscally responsible manner and take advantage of economies of scale.

• This factor addresses:

• Staffing requirements

• Educational program needs

• Other operational costs

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Fiscal Consideration - Operational

Neighborhoods Intact• Where possible, boundaries should

be structured to maintain a

neighborhood within one school's

attendance area.

• Neighborhoods should not be split

between two schools.

• A neighborhood is defined as the

smallest division of a planning area

that can be subdivided by a natural

line of demarcation, such as a

stream or major traffic way.

• There should be logical limits to

define a neighborhood.

All Planning Areas Intact

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Projected Enrollment & Building Utilization

• This factor considers building utilization, student enrollment, staffing needs and the educational program(s).

• Where possible, attendance boundaries should be created to anticipate the projected enrollment and the program/current capacity of the building.

• Efficient building utilization should attempt to maximize student population without exceeding capacity long-term.

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School Proj Desired Student

Type Capacity Tracking 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Beaver Creek Elementary Low 690 Res/Attend 666 729 736 721 699 674 650 656

K to 5th Mid 750 Res ide 723 751 757 745 749 750 754 789

High 840 Attend 719 730 747 769 798 825 859 923

Horizon Elementary Low 690 Res/Attend 624 629 717 710 681 655 631 591

K to 5th Mid 750 Res ide 671 671 734 741 742 749 757 751

High 840 Attend 665 676 723 772 803 844 883 912

Lawson Elementary Low 621 Res/Attend 419 449 507 485 468 445 405 380

PreK to 5th Mid 675 Res ide 543 491 515 511 521 523 509 508

High 756 Attend 477 463 519 538 573 602 612 636

Timber Ridge Elementary Low 690 Res/Attend 429 478 449 438 392 390 383 364

PreK to 5th Mid 750 Res ide 488 496 458 459 434 454 469 472

High 840 Attend 532 517 482 481 476 519 554 579

Wallace Elementary Low 552 Res/Attend 430 442 462 471 443 411 382 361

K to 5th Mid 600 Res ide 482 467 480 500 502 502 505 518

High 672 Attend 514 490 473 529 562 593 629 675

Past School Enrollment Projections Based on Residence

Students Impacted Boundary Change

• SIBC determines the number of students that will be impacted by a boundary change.

• Where possible, minimize the number of existing students impacted by a boundary change.

• Consideration should be given the number of students affected by a potential boundary change, specifically how many students from one particular school could be affected.

* Above numbers are examples to show an example of SIBC

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School K 1 2 3 4 5 Total

Beaver Creek 11 15 13 9 10 8 66

Horizon 9 12 12 7 4 6 50

Lawson 8 5 11 5 9 11 49

• Road Classifications are the first consideration in transportation planning.

• Proximity to school is an indicator of travel time, need to account for actual travel times (speed limit, stops, etc. )

Transportation Considerations

• While students may not necessarily attend the closest school; distance, transportation time, and routing should be considered, and minimized where possible, in formulating attendance boundaries.

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BOE Prioritized Boundary Criteria

Prioritized Boundary Criteria

1)Projected Enrollment / Building Utilization (31.5%)

2)Demographic Considerations (25.3%)

3)Duration of Boundaries (13.7%)

4)Neighborhoods Intact (12.3%)

5)Students Impacted Boundary Change (11.6%)

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Framework for creating attendance areasBOE Prioritized these at a the September 23, 2013 meeting

PART 3:

ENROLLMENT DEMOGRAPHICS

DEVELOPMENT PROJECTIONS

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Making it happen

Johnston Community Schools

• Administration

County, City & Others

• Polk County

• City of Johnston

• City of Des Moines

• Census Bureau/ESRI

Development Community

• Builders

• Developers

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• District Boundary (purple line)

• City Limits (Solid Colors)

• Major Streets

• Major water features

District Map

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• District Boundary (purple line)

• Elementary Attendance Areas (solid colors)

• Major Streets

• Major water features

Elementary School Map

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Plan Area MapAn area of land defined by one of the following:• By Land Use (Residential,

Commercial, Industrial)

• By Residential Density (Single-Family, Mobile Home, Duplex, Apartment)

• By Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks)

• By Manmade Features (Railroad and Roads)

• By Elementary School Attendance Areas

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Plan Area Detail Map

• Zoomed into Beaver Creek

• Show the power of GIS information

• See where students are located in relation to streets, subdivisions, parcels

• Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to the parcel

What is a planning area?

A. Made up term

B. Represent a

Neighborhood

C. Attendance Area

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Made

up term

Represe

nt a N

eigh

borhood

Attendance

Are

a

3.8%

38.5%

57.7%

Correct Answer is B

Sophisticated Forecast Model

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This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.

Built-Out

Developing

Where:

Model Components

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• Cohort Growth

• External Growth

• Kindergarten Change

• Economic Scenarios

County

City

Attendance Areas

Streets

Development

Students & People

Issues Addressed in Model

• Housing market changes (Foreclosure Short Sale)

• Economic conditions (Will have a major impact)

• Infrastructure Enhancements (Sewer, water)

• Future residential growth patterns (Many areas)

• Demographic trends (Who is moving here – do they have students)

• Enrollment trends (Are things tracking low or high)

• Capacity of Facilities (Many changes made and will need to be made)

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Assumptions of the FutureThe economy will continue to show signs of recovery

Mortgage interest rates have reached a historic low and likely will remain

below 6%

Subprime loans will continue to impact new development potential

The rate of foreclosures should continue to decline over the next five years

Recirculation of existing homes will remain stable

Final Platted developments will be the location of most development

– less potential for creating new developments that have not been

through the development process

Unemployment rates will likely remain at or below 8%

Nonresidential developments should happen as more residential is

constructed

Fuel prices will remain near $4.00

Private and Parochial school enrollment remains stable

If more of these variables track toward being positive for the District – likely will

start moving toward the high projections – the converse can also occur – midpoint

projection is what the District should use for

planning purposes.

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If more of these variables track toward being positive for the District – likely will start moving toward the high projections – the converse can also occur – midpoint

projection is what the District should use for planning purposes.

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Planning Area Change Map (Count Difference)

• Depicts student movement at each planning area from 20009/10 to 2013/14

• Orange areas experienced an increase since 2009/10; green areas a decrease

• White areas had no net change of students between 2009/10 and 2013/14

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Planning Area Change Map (Density)

• Depicts student movement at each planning area from 2009/10 to 2013/14

• Enrollment change is weighted by land area of each planning area to show density

• Green areas experienced decrease; orange areas experienced increase

• Is it related to changes in the community? A particular type of development?

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Student “Heat” Map

• Red areas depict highest student density, gray as the lowest student density

• Overlapping points (2 or more students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points

• Illustrates by student address where there is the greatest clustering of students

• This type of analysis can help with knowing student population to geographic proximity to schools

Past School Enrollment

Pig in the Snake Effect• Largest class in 2013/14 – 5th grade (521)• Smallest class in 2013/14 – 12th grade (471)• Graduating senior class will likely be similar to the next

year incoming Kindergarten class

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th gradeThe above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment CountDoes not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School or Wildrose

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Oink?

Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total

2000/01 291 316 344 334 314 340 343 319 323 290 328 300 286 4,128

2001/02 335 313 326 351 362 329 376 346 321 319 316 346 310 4,350

2002/03 367 345 323 335 364 374 348 384 345 319 328 307 314 4,453

2003/04 351 394 353 335 333 398 379 361 389 363 329 323 260 4,568

2004/05 398 392 410 379 347 355 421 395 368 409 357 316 325 4,872

2005/06 385 414 404 433 390 368 392 432 397 385 408 363 332 5,103

2006/07 423 427 435 417 456 407 391 401 438 401 384 402 374 5,356

2007/08 429 439 446 450 433 467 426 392 414 442 419 388 368 5,513

2008/09 473 455 458 466 471 450 472 438 395 420 445 421 404 5,768

2009/10 472 488 470 467 481 485 461 484 443 410 424 446 430 5,961

2010/11 460 473 489 489 487 509 497 472 497 445 411 427 445 6,101

2011/12 452 466 479 495 492 492 491 506 483 483 453 403 448 6,143

2012/13 485 460 497 491 519 492 508 507 512 484 494 444 416 6,309

2013/14 496 473 472 491 492 521 506 519 499 529 490 490 471 6,449

Source: Iowa Department of Education (2000/01 to 2004/05) & Johnston Community School District (2005/06 to 2013/14)

Past School Enrollment

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Examining the Trends• Largest average class increase – 11th to 12th grade (+20)• Largest average class decrease – 10th to 11th (-7+)• Propensity to have each cohort increase students from year to year in most grades

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th gradeThe above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment CountDoes not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School, or Wildrose

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th

From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th

2000/01 2001/02 44 22 10 7 28 15 36 3 2 -4 26 18 10

2001/02 2002/03 32 10 10 9 13 12 19 8 -1 -2 9 -9 -32

2002/03 2003/04 -16 27 8 12 -2 34 5 13 5 18 10 -5 -47

2003/04 2004/05 47 41 16 26 12 22 23 16 7 20 -6 -13 2

2004/05 2005/06 -13 16 12 23 11 21 37 11 2 17 -1 6 16

2005/06 2006/07 38 42 21 13 23 17 23 9 6 4 -1 -6 11

2006/07 2007/08 6 16 19 15 16 11 19 1 13 4 18 4 -34

2007/08 2008/09 44 26 19 20 21 17 5 12 3 6 3 2 16

2008/09 2009/10 -1 15 15 9 15 14 11 12 5 15 4 1 9

2009/10 2010/11 -12 1 1 19 20 28 12 11 13 2 1 3 -1

2010/11 2011/12 -8 6 6 6 3 5 -18 9 11 -14 8 -8 21

2011/12 2012/13 33 8 31 12 24 0 16 16 6 1 11 -9 13

2012/13 2013/14 11 -12 12 -6 1 2 14 11 -8 17 6 -4 27

3-Yr Avg 12.0 0.7 16.3 4.0 9.3 2.3 4.0 12.0 3.0 1.3 8.3 -7.0 20.3

3-Yr Wavg 15.2 -2.3 17.3 2.0 9.0 1.8 9.3 12.3 -0.2 6.5 8.0 -6.3 21.3

Source: Iowa Department of Education (2000/01 to 2004/05) & Johnston Community School District (2005/06 to 2013/14)

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• Current students who are in 1st

through 12th grade that were not attending the district the previous year as Kindergarten through 11th

graders

• Who is new to the district that was not attending the previous year

• 416 new students that were not in the district in 2012/13

In-Migration Map

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• Students attending the district currently who were in Kindergarten through 11th grade that did not attend the previous year as 1st

through 12th grade

• Shows where the student resided when they attended the district

• 367 students left the district from 2012/13

Out-Migration Map

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Census Ages 0-4 in 2017

• Depicted by Census Block Groups with 2017 estimates

• Density weighted by land area of each Block Group

• Red areas have greatest density

• Blue areas have least density

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• Depicted by Census Block Groups with 2017 estimates

• Density weighted by land area of each Block Group

• Red areas have greatest density

• Blue areas have least density

Census Female Ages 15-59 Population in 2017

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Development Trends

Source: Census Estimates, Johnston Community Schools Enrollment and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

The above numbers reflect census population change, District enrollment change, and Certificate of Occupancies issued each year.

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Certificate Occupancy 631 390 537 458 409 350 416 180 218 237 200 207 69

Enrollment Change 222 103 115 304 231 253 157 255 193 140 42 166 140

Census Change 846 880 916 953 991 1,031 1,072 1,115 1,160 1,204 628 640 653

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nu

mb

er

Enrollment Conclusions

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• Elementary and high school enrollment will increase

• Middle school enrollment will be stable

• Enrollment tends to have cohort increase from year to year

• Greatest enrollment increase tend to happen in the newest residential areas

• Some of the older areas of the community are experiencing enrollment increase

• Each planning area has its own enrollment student cycle

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• Shows where growth has been the last 5 years

• Location of development will impact future enrollment change

• Colors of dots represent a specific year according to Polk County Assessor

• Bulk of residential units built will continue on the north and west side of the district

Year Built Map

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Enrollment and Residential UnitsSchool Total K to 5 6 to 7 8 to 9 10 to 12 District

Year K to 5 6 to 7 8 to 9 10 to 12 Units Yield Rate Yield Rate Yield Rate Yield Rate Yield Rate

2000/01 1,939 662 613 914 8,219 0.236 0.081 0.075 0.111 0.502

2001/02 2,016 722 640 972 8,850 0.228 0.082 0.072 0.110 0.492

2002/03 2,108 732 664 949 9,240 0.228 0.079 0.072 0.103 0.482

2003/04 2,164 740 752 912 9,777 0.221 0.076 0.077 0.093 0.467

2004/05 2,281 816 777 998 10,235 0.223 0.080 0.076 0.098 0.476

2005/06 2,394 824 782 1,103 10,644 0.225 0.077 0.073 0.104 0.479

2006/07 2,565 792 839 1,160 10,994 0.233 0.072 0.076 0.106 0.487

2007/08 2,664 818 856 1,175 11,410 0.233 0.072 0.075 0.103 0.483

2008/09 2,773 910 815 1,270 11,590 0.239 0.079 0.070 0.110 0.498

2009/10 2,863 945 853 1,300 11,808 0.242 0.080 0.072 0.110 0.505

2010/11 2,907 969 942 1,283 12,045 0.241 0.080 0.078 0.107 0.507

2011/12 2,876 997 966 1,304 12,245 0.235 0.081 0.079 0.106 0.502

2012/13 2,944 1,015 996 1,354 12,452 0.236 0.082 0.080 0.109 0.507

2013/14 2,945 1,025 1,028 1,451 12,521 0.235 0.082 0.082 0.116 0.515

Source: Polk County, Johnston Community School, and RSP

Grade Configuration

Breaking this Down• In 2000/01 the District yielded about 50 students per 100 units – increased to 51 in 2013/14• This table will help better understand what it means for enrollment with every 100 units built

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Future Land Use

• Helps illustrate where the growth will be

• Identifies possible areas that could develop

• Yellow and Orange areas are targeted for residential

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Growth Area Map

• Where will the growth be?

• Identifies where development activity is happening (green)

• Identifies possible areas that could develop (yellow)

• The market and property owner desire to build guides the timing of development

Development Conclusions

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• The District is getting closer to being fully built out

• There is some possibility for in-fill development opportunities on the southeast side of the District

• Areas north of Camp Dodge have limited opportunities for development unless infrastructure is extended

• Areas in the City of Grimes along Hwy 141 are likely to be nonresidential

• Based on home values, the Johnston Community is typically seen as a move up community

Projection Accuracy

High School

• Projected 1,431

• Actual 1,451

• 98.6% Accuracy

District

• Projected 6,432

• Actual 6,449

• 99.7% Accuracy

Elementary

• Projected 2,957

• Actual 2,945

• 99.6% Accuracy

Middle School

• Projected 2,044

• Actual 2,053

• 99.6% Accuracy

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Wildrose students not in the projections

Past, Current & Future Enrollment

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Source: Johnston Community Schools and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

1,939 2,016 2,108 2,164 2,281 2,394 2,565 2,664 2,773 2,863 2,907 2,876 2,944 2,945

1,275 1,362 1,396 1,492 1,593 1,606 1,631 1,674 1,725 1,798 1,911 1,963 2,011 2,053914 972 949 912

998 1,1031,160 1,175

1,270 1,300 1,283 1,304 1,354 1,451

2,967 3,025 3,079 3,159 3,239

2,067 2,075 2,077 2,065 2,042

1,516 1,491 1,573 1,569 1,612

4,1284,350 4,453 4,568

4,8725,103

5,356 5,5135,768

5,961 6,101 6,143 6,309 6,449 6,550 6,591 6,729 6,793 6,892

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

200

0/01

200

1/02

200

2/03

200

3/04

200

4/05

200

5/06

200

6/07

200

7/08

200

8/09

200

9/10

201

0/11

201

1/12

201

2/13

201

3/14

201

4/15

201

5/16

201

6/17

201

7/18

201

8/19

ES MS HS Mid ES Proj Mid MS Proj Mid HS Proj District

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th gradeThe above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment CountDoes not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School, or Wildrose

Elementary Enrollment Projections

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School Desired Student

Capacity Tracking 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Beaver Creek Elementary 690 Res/Attend 729 736 715

K to 5th 750 Reside 751 757 747 758 764 766 801 829 741 747 749 784 812

840 Attend 730 747 723

Horizon Elementary 690 Res/Attend 629 717 693

K to 5th 750 Reside 671 734 711 716 716 737 750 762 706 706 727 740 752

840 Attend 676 723 701

Lawson Elementary 621 Res/Attend 449 507 531

PreK to 5th 675 Reside 491 515 547 563 586 597 616 621 563 586 597 616 621

756 Attend 463 519 543

Timber Ridge Elementary 690 Res/Attend 478 449 432

PreK to 5th 750 Reside 496 458 436 415 432 438 439 462 448 465 471 472 495

840 Attend 517 482 478

Wallace Elementary 552 Res/Attend 442 462 485

K to 5th 600 Reside 467 480 504 515 527 542 553 565 509 521 536 547 559

672 Attend 490 473 500

ELEMENTARY TOTAL 3,243

K to 5th 3,525 Reside 2,876 2,944 2,945 2,967 3,025 3,079 3,159 3,239 2,967 3,025 3,079 3,159 3,239

3,948 Attend 2,876 2,944 2,945

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student. Over Low Capacity

Note 2: The Enrollment Model is based on a Head count of students by Planning Area at each facility Over Low & Mid Capacity

Note 3: School capacity and timing of facilities provided by the Johnston Community School District Over Low, Mid, & High Capacity

Past School Enrollment Projections Based on Residence Projections Based on Attendance

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - October 2013

Note 4: Transfers between facilities are not factored into the projections

Note 5: Attend is the facility the student has been assigned by the District

Note 6: Reside is the placement of a student in the model either geographically or by attenandance area for out of district students

Note 7: The Enrollment Model assumes ES(K-5) MS(6-9) and HS (10-12)

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th gradeThe above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment CountDoes not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School, or Wildrose

Secondary Enrollment Projections

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School Desired Student

Capacity Tracking 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Summit Middle School 1,080

6th and 7th 1,200 Reside 997 1,016 1,026 1,042 1,028 1,012 1,013 1,005 1,042 1,028 1,012 1,013 1,005

1,280 Attend 997 1,016 1,026

Johnston Middle School 930

8th and 9th 1,050 Reside 966 995 1,027 1,025 1,047 1,065 1,051 1,037 1,025 1,047 1,065 1,051 1,037

1,130 Attend 966 995 1,027

Johnston High School 1,500

10th to 12th 1,550 Reside 1,304 1,354 1,451 1,516 1,491 1,573 1,569 1,612 1,516 1,491 1,573 1,569 1,612

1,600 Attend 1,304 1,354 1,451

ELEMENTARY TOTAL 3,243

K to 5th 3,525 Reside 2,876 2,944 2,945 2,967 3,025 3,079 3,159 3,239 2,967 3,025 3,079 3,159 3,239

3,948 Attend 2,876 2,944 2,945

MIDDLE TOTAL 2,010

6th to 9th 2,250 Reside 1,963 2,011 2,053 2,067 2,075 2,077 2,065 2,042 2,067 2,075 2,077 2,065 2,042

2,410 Attend 1,963 2,011 2,053

HIGH TOTAL 1,500

10th to 12th 1,550 Reside 1,304 1,354 1,451 1,516 1,491 1,573 1,569 1,612 1,516 1,491 1,573 1,569 1,612

1,600 Attend 1,304 1,354 1,451

DISTRICT TOTALS 6,753

K to 12th 7,325 Reside 6,143 6,309 6,449 6,550 6,591 6,729 6,793 6,892 6,550 6,591 6,729 6,793 6,892

7,958 Attend 6,143 6,309 6,449

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student. Over Low Capacity

Note 2: The Enrollment Model is based on a Head count of students by Planning Area at each facility Over Low & Mid Capacity

Note 3: School capacity and timing of facilities provided by the Johnston Community School District Over Low, Mid, & High Capacity

Past School Enrollment Projections Based on Residence Projections Based on Attendance

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - October 2013

Note 4: Transfers between facilities are not factored into the projections

Note 5: Attend is the facility the student has been assigned by the District

Note 6: Reside is the placement of a student in the model either geographically or by attenandance area for out of district students

Note 7: The Enrollment Model assumes ES(K-5) MS(6-9) and HS (10-12)

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th gradeThe above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment CountDoes not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School, or Wildrose

Projection Conclusions• Overall District enrollment will increase

• Elementary and High school enrollment increases, middle school remains stable

• Beaver Creek and Horizon Elementary will continue to have capacity challenges

• The new high school will better accommodate the increasing enrollment

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PART 4:NEXT STEPS

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Activity 3 - Expectations

At Your Table:

• Share with those people at your table what your Greatest Hope is

for this process.

• Report out to Group

TIME to Complete – 5 to 10 minutes

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What was your learning

experience tonight?

A. Blown Away

B. Learned Something

C. Learned One Thing

D. Learned Nothing

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Blow

n Aw

ay

Lear

ned S

ometh

ing

Lear

ned O

ne Th

ing

Lear

ned N

othin

g

27.3%

0.0%

9.1%

63.6%

Next Steps

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Boundary Committee

• Next Meeting will be November 6, 2013 at 6:30PM

• Homework – take the Elementary boundary maps home and think about what you think might make a good natural boundary – suggest driving the community and seeing what is happening

Communication

• Talk with your neighbors and others in the community about what has been discussed and be ready to provide that feedback at the next committee meeting

World Class Education

• The goal of this process is to enhance the student experience as well as provide better educational opportunities

Notes:

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