Commercial Property Value Webinar
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Transcript of Commercial Property Value Webinar
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A I t d ti t thAn Introduction to the Economics Center’s Commercial co o cs Ce te s Co e c aProperty Value Forecast Model
E i C tEconomics CenterUniversity of Cincinnati
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What is Innovative about Our Model?
Developed specifically for your community, based on local data (Underlying model can be updated on a 3- year cycle)
Requires minimal User Input
User can “force” a current year estimate before updated property value data are available– Forced estimate carries through 10-year projections– Forced estimate carries through 10 year projections
User may also adjust the model to account for out-of-trend changes prior to updating of underlying model
Produce forecasts for various conditions
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How Our Model WorksHow Our Model Works
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Model InputModel InputCurrent Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77 711 585 $ 326 688 714 $ 107 450 862 $ 77 812 2742008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
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Model InputModel InputCurrent Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
A t l R id ti l V l A t l C i l (TIF t t l) V lActual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,4312007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
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Model InputpCurrent Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
djAdjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) ValueActual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
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What does Our Model do?What does Our Model do?
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Our Model Output Examplep pReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
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Adjustment Factor Illustrationj
TIF ActualTIF Actual
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Adjustment Factor IllustrationAdjustment Factor Illustration
TIF ActualTIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Adjustment Factor IllustrationAdjustment Factor Illustration
TIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Adjustment Factor IllustrationAdjustment Factor Illustration
TIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)TIF Predicted2 (adj)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Additional InformationAdditional InformationFull Product includes:Full Product includes:
Customized forecast model and documentationdocumentation
Presentations to your staff and community y yleaders to explain the model and train to use
Support with updating forecast inputSupport with updating forecast input
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Flexible PricingFlexible Pricing
Depends on:The number of taxing districts, TIF districtsThe number of taxing districts, TIF districtsNumber of presentations to your community leader and stakeholdersleader and stakeholders
U d d l i d l i d lUpdates to underlying model are priced separately
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Thank youThank youfJennifer Pitzer
Research [email protected] p
(513)556-2491www.economicsresearch.org
Client Testimonial:“The TIF Model is intuitive, easy and flexible for reporting to the Township
Trustees to help them understand the resources that Deerfield Township h il bl Th T t ll i t h i t l th tmay have available. The Trustees really appreciate having a tool that can
inform planning for the future, beyond the upcoming year.”
- John Wahle, Fiscal Officer, Deerfield TownshipJohn Wahle, Fiscal Officer, Deerfield Township