Commercial Mortgage Market Monitor June 2019...the sole tenant at all three assets, filed for...

MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES

Commercial Mortgage Market Monitor

June 2019 Remittances

Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................................ 2

Overview ............................................................................................ 3

Section A: Delinquencies .................................................................. 3

I. Delinquencies as a % of Unpaid Principal Balance ............. 5

II. Watch List Exposure .............................................................. 8

III. Special Servicing Exposure ............................................. 10

IV. Delinquency Broken Out by Vintage ............................... 15

V. Delinquency Broken Out by Status ..................................... 17

VI. Delinquency Broken Out by Property Type..................... 19

VII. Maturing Loans Summary .............................................. 21

VIII. Defeased Loan Trends .................................................... 24

Section B: Losses ............................................................................ 26

I. CDRs .................................................................................... 27

II. Loan Level Losses ................................................................ 29

III. Aggregate Severity Greater than 2% ............................... 30

IV. Average Severity by Property Type .................................. 33

V. Average Number of Months to Liquidation ....................... 37

Section C: Prepayments .................................................................. 39

I. Top 10 Largest Refinancings ............................................... 40

II. Top 10 Largest Refinancings with Yield Maintenance ... 42

III. Top 10 Largest Refinancings with Prepayment Penalties .. 44

Section D: Appraisal Reductions .................................................... 46

I. Percentage of Balance with Appraisal Reduction ............... 47

Section E: Modifications ................................................................. 49

I. Modifications by Type ......................................................... 50

Section F: Commercial Property Prices .......................................... 53

I. Moody’s Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) ............ 54

Section G: CMBS Securitization Volumes………………………………..56

2

Foreword

The Commercial Mortgage Market Monitor provides a monthly snapshot of key risk metrics in the Commercial Mortgage Market. The primary sources of data include Intex and Moody’s. The following definitions will facilitate the use of this report. WATCH LIST If the Master Servicer observes that a loan is headed for distress it may put the loan on “negative credit watch.” The loan typically remains on watch until the Master Servicer/Special Servicer has deemed that the acute credit risk has dissipated. SPECIAL SERVICING When a loan goes delinquent, servicing is transferred from the Master Servicer to the Special Servicer. Likewise, if the Master Servicer believes that delinquency is very likely and curing in a reasonable amount of time is unlikely a transfer to the Special Servicer will occur prior to delinquency. The Special Servicer’s responsibility is to maximize the net present value of the proceeds realized from the loan. Typically, the Special Servicer has substantial commercial real estate experience and uses it to decide whether to initiate foreclosure and liquidate the loan or restructure the loan and return it to the Master Servicer. DELINQUENCY Any loan that is 30 days or more delinquent or is in Foreclosure or REO is flagged as “Delinquent” for the purposes of this report. APPRAISAL REDUCTION Typically, if a property is worth less than 90% of the loans unpaid balance, the Special Servicer is required to reset the principal loan amount to the new appraisal value. This is called appraisal reduction and is meant to preserve capital for senior certificates at the expense of junior classes. In this report we track the percentage of the CMBS loan universe that has received appraisal reductions. MODIFICATION As an alternative to liquidation through foreclosure the Special Servicer may modify the loan in accordance with the guidelines of the Pooling and Servicing Agreement. These modifications can include: maturity date extensions, change to the amortization structure, principal forgiveness, temporary rate reduction, capitalization of delinquent interest, capitalization of delinquent interest, or any combination of these modifications. In this report we track the percentage of the CMBS loan universe that has received modifications. MOODY’S/REAL CPPI The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Index (CPPI) methodology was developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Real Estate industry partner Real Capital Analytics, Inc. The index is designed to track changes in price on commercial properties involved in two or more transactions over time. Appraisal valuations are not used as part of the index but each transaction carries the same weight. The national all-property index is published monthly. Historical data are available as far back as December 2000.

3

Overview

Twenty eight loans totaling $543MM became newly delinquent in June which increased the CMBS 2.0 delinquency rate to 0.74%. The special

servicing (SS) rate increased slightly to 1.34% with sixteen loans totaling $221MM newly transferred to SS.

One notable delinquency was the $27MM Shopko Oregon Portfolio loan (2.6% JPMDB 2017-C5). The loan is secured by the fee simple

interest in three Shopko retail stores (319,006 SF) located in Eugene, Salem, and Bend, Oregon. Reported occupancy is at 100% but Shopko,

the sole tenant at all three assets, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy at the beginning of 2019. As part of the reorganization plan, Shopko will

close more than 100 locations. All three of the stores are on the closure list. The borrower is exploring options in order to determine the best

workout strategy going forward.

One large loss severity in June resulted from the liquidation of the $10.4MM Holiday Inn – Houma LA (WFRBS 2014-C19). The loan was

secured by a 97 key full service Holiday Inn located in Houma, LA. The property was built in 2006 and most recently renovated in 2013. The

Houma market is heavily dependent on off shore oil and gas production. Since hitting over $100 per barrel in 2014, the price of West Texas

Intermediate crude has declined significantly and with that, oil companies have decreased travel and mandated price reductions from their

hotel vendors. Subsequently, net cash flow at the hotel for 2018 was reported to be negative $161,311 versus $1,271,697 at the time of

underwriting. Due to this significant decline in asset performance, the property was sold which resulted in an $8.2MM loss to the trust (79.5%

loss severity).

In new issue CMBS, twelve private label deals ($7.5BN) priced including five conduit deals ($3.8BN) and seven single asset/single borrower

(SASB) deals ($3.7BN). The conduit transactions utilized L-shaped and horizontal risk retention structures. The conduit AAA LCFs priced at a

weighted average spread of swaps + 95 bps.

The largest SASB transaction was a $1BN 10yr fixed rate deal collateralized by the borrower’s fee simple interest in an approximately 1.46mm

square foot office condo designated as the Time Warner Unit of the 30 Hudson Yards office building. The AAA class priced at a spread of

swaps + 95 bps.

2019 private label issuance across conduit/SASB totals $37.9BN across 61 transactions year to date.

4

Section A:

5

I. Delinquencies as a % of Unpaid Principal Balance

6

0.0073834

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

CMBS 2.0 Delinquency PercentageCMBS 2.0 Delinquency PercentageCMBS 2.0 Delinquency PercentageCMBS 2.0 Delinquency Percentage

Newly Delinquent 30++ % (rhs)

Delinquent 30+%

Exhibited by TCW from Intex Data

7

Top 10 Largest CMBS 2.0 Loans Entering Delinquency

Deal Property Name Type Balance % Deal Tapedate DQ Status City

JPB14C18 545 Madison Avenue Office 30,000,000 3.7% 06/15/19 30 Days New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

JPD17C5 Shopko Oregon Portfolio Retail 27,163,510 2.6% 06/15/19 30 Days Salem, OR-36.98% Bend-Redmond, OR-35.56% Eugene,

OR-27.47% COM13CC9 Raintree Apartments Multi-Family 25,498,476 2.3% 06/10/19 30 Days Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY

COM14C19 CHS Professional Office 22,618,992 2.2% 06/10/19 30 Days Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

COM13C12 Monarch 544 at Coastal Carolina Multi-Family 22,015,022 2.1% 06/10/19 30 Days Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC

MSC16U11 Nameoki Commons Retail 15,538,415 2.2% 06/15/19 30 Days St. Louis, MO-IL

WFC15L20 Shop City Shopping Center Retail 15,296,634 1.9% 06/15/19 30 Days Syracuse, NY

COM14UB5 Port O'Call Apartments Multi-Family 14,182,633 1.2% 06/10/19 30 Days Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN

WFC15NX4 The Streets of Chester Retail 13,289,740 1.8% 06/15/19 30 Days New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

COM15L19 Hampden Villa Retail 9,614,909 0.7% 06/10/19 30 Days Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

Total 195,218,331


8

II. Watch List Exposure

9

11.26%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

CMBS 2.0 Watch List Exposure PercentageCMBS 2.0 Watch List Exposure PercentageCMBS 2.0 Watch List Exposure PercentageCMBS 2.0 Watch List Exposure Percentage


10

III. Special Servicing Exposure

11

1.34%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

CMBS 2.0 Special Servicing Exposure PercentageCMBS 2.0 Special Servicing Exposure PercentageCMBS 2.0 Special Servicing Exposure PercentageCMBS 2.0 Special Servicing Exposure Percentage


12

Hotel 16.1%

Industrial 2.6%

Multi-Family 13.8%

Office 23.4%

Other 5.5%

Retail 38.7%

Property Type Stratification Property Type Stratification Property Type Stratification Property Type Stratification ---- Specially Serviced AssetsSpecially Serviced AssetsSpecially Serviced AssetsSpecially Serviced Assets


13

Top 10 Largest CMBS 2.0 Loans Entering Special Servicing

Deal Property Name Type Balance % Deal Tapedate DQStatus City

WFC16C34 Regent Portfolio Office 68,983,550 10.1% 06/15/19 60 Days New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA-

94.77% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm UBS17C03 IC Leased Fee Hotel Portfolio Other 27,000,000 3.9% 06/15/19 60 Days Appleton, WI-25.76% St. Louis, MO-IL-25.23%

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY-13.45% Hartford-UBS17C02 IC Leased Fee Hotel Portfolio Other 24,000,000 2.8% 06/15/19 60 Days Appleton, WI-25.76% St. Louis, MO-IL-25.23%

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY-13.45% Hartford-UBS17C01 Boston Creek Apartments Multi-Family 16,396,780 1.7% 06/15/19 60 Days Lubbock, TX

SGCM16C5 Regent Portfolio Office 11,333,012 1.6% 06/10/19 60 Days New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA-

94.77% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm GS214G22 Westwood Plaza Retail 10,785,556 1.3% 06/10/19 90+ Days Johnstown, PA

COM13CC8 Carlsbad Airport Corporate Center Office 10,676,948 1.0% 06/10/19 <30 Days San Diego-Carlsbad, CA

MSC15UB8 Holiday Inn Express - Atlanta Airport Hotel 10,404,240 1.3% 06/15/19 Current Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

MSB16C29 Crossings at Halls Ferry Retail 9,582,781 1.2% 06/15/19 30 Days St. Louis, MO-IL

JPC10C01 Del Alba Plaza Retail 6,962,671 4.8% 06/15/19 Current Pittsfield, MA

Total 196,125,539


14

0.628%0.708%

11.260%

1.337%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Watch List and Special Servicing SummaryWatch List and Special Servicing SummaryWatch List and Special Servicing SummaryWatch List and Special Servicing Summary

SS and Cur

SS and DQ

Watch List

Special SVC Pct


15

IV. Delinquency Broken Out by Vintage

16

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19

Monthly 30+ Delinquent % by Vintage Monthly 30+ Delinquent % by Vintage Monthly 30+ Delinquent % by Vintage Monthly 30+ Delinquent % by Vintage

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


17

V. Delinquency Broken Out by Status

18

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19

Monthly Delinquency % by StatusMonthly Delinquency % by StatusMonthly Delinquency % by StatusMonthly Delinquency % by Status

DQ30 DQ60 DQ90P FC REO


19

VI. Delinquency Broken Out by Property Type

20

1.72%

0.5%0.4%

0.7%

0.9%0.7%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

Property Type Monthly Delinquency: as Percentage of Property Property Type Monthly Delinquency: as Percentage of Property Property Type Monthly Delinquency: as Percentage of Property Property Type Monthly Delinquency: as Percentage of Property TypeTypeTypeType

Multi-Family Office Industrial Hotel Retail Other


21

VII. Maturing Loans Summary

22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Maturing Loans SummaryMaturing Loans SummaryMaturing Loans SummaryMaturing Loans Summary

Paid off no extension Paid off with extension Paid off in later quarter Unpaid Paid off with loss


23

Top 10 Largest Loans Maturing without Payoff

Deal Property Name Type Balance % Deal Tapedate Maturity DQStatus City

JPC14FL6 Southland Mall Retail 67,500,000 56% 06/15/19 05/09/19 Current Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

WFC14L16 Massillon Industrial Industrial 19,627,042 2% 06/15/19 05/06/19 Current Canton-Massillon, OH

WFR14C20 Hilton Garden Inn Panama City Hotel 8,790,512 1% 06/15/19 05/01/19 30 Days Panama City, FL

WFC14L16 Microtel Inn & Suites Portfolio - Texas Hotel 8,688,212 1% 06/15/19 05/06/19 Current San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX-57.80%

Austin-Round Rock, TX-42.20% RCAP1401 610 Bluford Street Multi-Family 3,423,003 8% 06/25/19 05/01/19 Current Greensboro-High Point, NC

Total 67,500,000


24

VIII. Defeased Loan Trends

25

4.64%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

5%

Outstanding Defeased Loan Balance as % of CMBS UniverseOutstanding Defeased Loan Balance as % of CMBS UniverseOutstanding Defeased Loan Balance as % of CMBS UniverseOutstanding Defeased Loan Balance as % of CMBS Universe


26

Section B: LossesLossesLossesLosses

27

I. CDRs

28

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

CMBS Universe CDRsCMBS Universe CDRsCMBS Universe CDRsCMBS Universe CDRs


29

II. Loan Level Losses

30

Loans with Losses Greater than 2%

Deal Property Name Type Balance % of

Deal Loss LossPct Tapedate City

WFR14C19 Holiday Inn - Houma, LA Hotel 10,385,848 1.1% 8,256,971 79.5% 06/15/19 Houma-Thibodaux, LA

COM13L13 Red Roof Inn Laredo Hotel 2,604,820 0.3% 944,431 36.3% 06/10/19 Laredo, TX

COM14C17 Gander Mountain Dothan Retail 4,845,909 0.5% 1,227,410 25.3% 06/10/19 Dothan, AL

WFC15C27 Country Club Apartments Multi-Family 5,001,770 0.5% 892,419 17.8% 06/15/19 Shreveport-Bossier City,

LA Subtotals 22,838,347 11,321,230 39.7%

Loans with Losses Less than 2%

Deal Property Name Type Balance % of

Deal

Loss LossPct Tapedate City

COM15DC1 Comfort Inn - St. Clairsville Hotel 3,871,149 0.3% 20,035 0.5% 06/10/19Wheeling, WV-OH

Subtotals 3,871,149 20,035 0.5%

Aggregate Totals 26,709,496 11,341,265 31.9%

31

III. Aggregate Severity Greater than 2%

32

Totals Balance Loss Amt Avg Severity Count

Jun-19 22,838,347 11,321,230 39.7% 4

May-19 68,992,754 59,471,921 81.9% 3

Apr-19 24,771,100 10,057,385 47.4% 3

Mar-19 9,431,095 1,783,216 18.9% 1

Feb-19 20,667,254 8,781,432 63.5% 5

Jan-19 70,626,197 39,221,245 66.6% 6

Dec-18 3,573,743 601,822 16.8% 1

Nov-18 63,494,311 49,690,585 76.1% 2

Oct-18 34,647,154 35,412,984 103.1% 3

Sep-18 13,343,182 4,059,399 29.2% 2

Aug-18 4,103,474 3,391,372 82.6% 1

Jul-18 23,151,359 10,225,836 45.2% 2

Jun-18 70,447,140 46,427,798 66.3% 11

May-18 25,333,283 12,864,068 45.9% 4

Apr-18 7,518,024 3,912,153 52.0% 1

Jan-18 15,438,934 8,943,647 55.0% 2

Nov-17 17,942,540 8,643,041 49.6% 2

Aug-17 5,495,687 3,518,584 63.4% 2

Jul-17 937,061 720,934 76.9% 1

Apr-17 23,389,777 8,353,097 35.7% 1

Mar-17 7,184,789 3,063,581 70.1% 2

Feb-17 37,715,064 14,686,944 39.0% 2

Jan-17 76,640,608 49,503,297 56.6% 4

Jun-16 498,663 170,444 34.2% 1


33

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Average Loss Severity and Number of Liquidations

Liquidation Count (rhs) Severity

34

IV. Average Severity by Property Type

35

All Loans

Prop Type Balance Loss Severity Count

Hotel 16,861,817 9,221,437 38.8% 3

Multi-Family 5,001,770 892,419 17.8% 1

Retail 4,845,909 1,227,410 25.3% 1

Total 26,709,496 11,341,265 27.3% 5

Loans with severity greater than 2%


Hotel 12,990,668 9,201,402 57.9% 2

Multi-Family 5,001,770 892,419 17.8% 1

Retail 4,845,909 1,227,410 25.3% 1

Total 22,838,347 11,321,230 33.7% 4


36

Loans with severity less than 2%


Hotel 3,871,149 20,035 0.5% 1

Total 3,871,149 20,035 0.5% 1


37

V. Average Number of Months to Liquidation

38

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Average Number of Months to LiquidationAverage Number of Months to LiquidationAverage Number of Months to LiquidationAverage Number of Months to Liquidation

Liquidation Count (rhs) Avg Months to Liquidation


39

Section C: Prepayments

40

I. Top 10 Largest Refinancings

41


42

II. Top 10 Largest Refinancings with Yield Maintenance

43

Deal Property Name Type Balance Pct Date DispositionType City

JPB14C21 100 Cambridge Discovery Park Office 55,500,000 5% 05/31/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

WFR13C12 Studio Green Apartments Multi-Family 25,946,089 3% 05/20/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-

MD JPB13C14 American Twine Office 18,000,000 2% 06/01/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

COM14C19 Maui Portfolio Hotel 15,749,477 2% 06/06/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI-100.00%

MSBA13C7 10 Park Place Office 13,078,251 1% 06/01/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

COM15C26 Walmart Lake Geneva Other 8,006,422 1% 05/16/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Whitewater-Elkhorn, WI

JPC13C10 Discovery Tech Center II Office 6,769,922 1% 06/01/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

MSB13C13 Currier Square Shopping Center Retail 6,678,079 1% 06/09/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Chico, CA

COM13C12 Crye-Leike Headquarters Office 6,639,970 1% 05/15/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Memphis, TN-MS-AR

COM12CC2 400 North State Street Other 6,218,728 1% 06/03/19Payoff With Yield Maintenance Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

Total 162,586,937


44

III. Top 10 Largest Refinancings with Prepayment Penalties

45

Deal Property Name Type Balance Pct Date DispositionType City

JPC12LC9 Amazon Fulfillment Center Industrial 38,500,000 6% 06/01/19 Payoff With Penalty Cleveland, TN

WFR13C12 Evergreen Owners, Inc. Multi-Family 3,940,095 0% 05/28/19 Payoff With Penalty New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

IMPF1001 Windham Apartments Multi-Family 2,040,919 1% 06/07/19 Payoff With Penalty Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

WFR13C12 Maple Court Apartments, Inc.Multi-Family 2,015,326 0% 05/28/19 Payoff With Penalty New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

Total 38,500,000


46

Section D: Appraisal Reductions

47

I. Percentage of Balance with Appraisal Reduction

48

0.491%

39.6%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Appraisal Reduction on CMBS UniverseAppraisal Reduction on CMBS UniverseAppraisal Reduction on CMBS UniverseAppraisal Reduction on CMBS Universe

Pct w/Appraisal Reduction

Appraisal Reduction Amt


49

Section E: Modifications

50

I. Modifications by Type

51

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Percent CMBS Universe with ModificationPercent CMBS Universe with ModificationPercent CMBS Universe with ModificationPercent CMBS Universe with Modification

Maturity Ext Amort Change Prin Forgiveness Temp Rate Reduction

Interest Capitalization Taxes Capitalization Other Combination


52

Top 10 Largest Legacy Loans Modified


53

Section F: Commercial Property Prices

54

I. Moody’s Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)

55

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Moody's Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)Moody's Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)Moody's Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)Moody's Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)

Index, December 2000 = 100 Non-Major Markets All Properties Major Market All Properties

Exhibited by TCW from Moody’s

56

Section G: CMBS Securitization Volumes

57

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Conduit SASB/FLTR Total

Quarterly CMBS Origination Volume in MillionsQuarterly CMBS Origination Volume in MillionsQuarterly CMBS Origination Volume in MillionsQuarterly CMBS Origination Volume in Millions

Q22000

Q22001

Q22002

Q22003

Q22004

Q22005

Q22006

Q22007

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Q22019

Exhibited by TCW from Bloomberg

58

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Conduit SASB/FLTR Total

Annual CMBS Origination Volume in MillionsAnnual CMBS Origination Volume in MillionsAnnual CMBS Origination Volume in MillionsAnnual CMBS Origination Volume in Millions

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Exhibited by TCW from Bloomberg

Commercial Mortgage Market Monitor June 2019...the sole tenant at all three assets, filed for...

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