Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team Safety Team

2006 Collier Trophy Nomination2006 Collier Trophy NominationDr. Michael RomanowskiDr. Michael Romanowski

Aerospace Industries AssociationAerospace Industries Association

NAA Selection Committee PresentationNAA Selection Committee PresentationFebruary 6, 2007February 6, 2007

Crystal Gateway MarriottCrystal Gateway MarriottArlington, VirginiaArlington, Virginia

Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Need for Dramatic ActionNeed for Dramatic Action

19

59

19

65

19

75

19

85

19

95

20

05

20

15

We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Year

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Hull loss accidentsper year

Hull loss accident rate

Airplanes in service

12,595

25,598

1997 2016

Millions of departures

Business

as usu

al

Our goal

Improvement areas: Lessons learned Regulations Airplanes Flight operations Maintenance Air traffic management Infrastructure

5.1-3

19

59

19

65

19

75

19

85

19

95

20

05

20

15

We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Year

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Hull loss accidentsper year

Hull loss accident rate

Airplanes in service

12,595

25,598

1997 2016

Millions of departures

Business

as usu

al

Our goal

Improvement areas: Lessons learned Regulations Airplanes Flight operations Maintenance Air traffic management Infrastructure

5.1-3CAST 1998 FSF Briefing

CAST Has Saved Lives - CAST Has Saved Lives - It’s Changed Our Safety Expectations & the It’s Changed Our Safety Expectations & the

Way We Manage Aviation SafetyWay We Manage Aviation Safety

R

By Today’s Standards, Accidents in the Mid-90s Were Frequent

AMR, NY Comair, Lexington

CA

ST

AMR, CaliValueJet, EvergladesDelta, PensacolaTWA, New York

Operations policy andprocedures

Airplane/pilot publications Approved maintenance

program Maintenance, policy, and

procedures Maintenance publications Safety program Training

Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Safe AirplaneAirplane + Safe + Safe OperationOperation + Safe + Safe InfrastructureInfrastructure = Safe Air Travel = Safe Air Travel

Air Safety

*

Safe airplane design Safety enhancing technology

development Flight and maintenance

operations, recommendations,documents, training, andsupport

Maintenance planning Safety related analysis Safety initiatives

Aviation law Operations specification Rules and regulations Inspectors policy,

procedures, and training Airline policy and

procedures requirements Safety, health, environmental

law, and regulations Navigation facilities/operations Airport facilities Departure enroute, arrival,

approach policy, andprocedures

Air traffic control services Safety related analysis

ManufacturersGovernment

Operators

*

Including Air Traffic Service providers5.1-9

CAST Came Together in 1997 to Form an CAST Came Together in 1997 to Form an Unprecedented Industry-Government PartnershipUnprecedented Industry-Government Partnership

• Voluntary commitments• Consensus decision-making• Data driven risk management• Implementation-focused• Goals:

• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007

• Reach out internationally to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

* Representing P&W and RR** Observer

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingGE*RAAFSF

CAST Brings Key Stakeholders To Cooperatively CAST Brings Key Stakeholders To Cooperatively Develop & Implement A Prioritized Safety AgendaDevelop & Implement A Prioritized Safety Agenda

Industry

Commercial Aviation Safety Team

(CAST)

Government

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAO**JAATCCANATCA** NTSB**EASA

IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**

Current composition

Data Drove CAST Focus Areas Data Drove CAST Focus Areas Act on Highest Priority ThreatsAct on Highest Priority Threats

Worldwide Airline Hull Loss AccidentsClassified by Type of Event 1988 - 1997

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Number ofHull Losses

75

31

914

2 1

84 3

16CA

13 CC

2Unk

Fuelexhaus-

tion

CFIT Loss ofcontrolin flight

In-flightfire

Sabo-tage*

Mid-air

collision

Hijack* Fueltank

explo-sion

Wind-shear

(Micro-burst)

Landing RunwayIncursion

RTO Ice/snow

Takeoffconfig.

100

80

60

40

20

0

44

Total Hull Losses = 219

7 634 2 2 2 2

Loss of Control: CA = Control Available (16); CC = Control Compromised (13); Unk = Unknown/TBD (2)

NOTE: some non-onboard fatalities are included on this chart.* Exceptions to statistical accident definition

CFIT = Controlled Flight Into TerrainRTO = Refused Takeoff

Struc-ture

Misc.fatality

Un-known

On-ground

1

1

5.1-5

Worldwide Airline Hull Loss AccidentsClassified by Type of Event 1988 - 1997

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Number ofHull Losses

75

31

914

2 1

84 3

16CA

13 CC

2Unk

Fuelexhaus-

tion

CFIT Loss ofcontrolin flight

In-flightfire

Sabo-tage*

Mid-air

collision

Hijack* Fueltank

explo-sion

Wind-shear

(Micro-burst)

Landing RunwayIncursion

RTO Ice/snow

Takeoffconfig.

100

80

60

40

20

0

44

Total Hull Losses = 219

7 634 2 2 2 2

Loss of Control: CA = Control Available (16); CC = Control Compromised (13); Unk = Unknown/TBD (2)

NOTE: some non-onboard fatalities are included on this chart.* Exceptions to statistical accident definition

CFIT = Controlled Flight Into TerrainRTO = Refused Takeoff

Struc-ture

Misc.fatality

Un-known

On-ground

1

1

5.1-5

Initial Agenda:• Approach & landing accidents• Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)• Loss of control accidents• Runway incursions• Uncontained engine failures• Weather-related accidents

CAST 1998

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of

study

• Data analyses

CAST

Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Implementation

Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Rigorous Processes Created to Guide Rigorous Processes Created to Guide Development & Implementation of CAST PlanDevelopment & Implementation of CAST PlanRigorous Processes Created to Guide Rigorous Processes Created to Guide Development & Implementation of CAST PlanDevelopment & Implementation of CAST Plan

Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Tota

l

LOC

Flt

CFI

TFi

re/E

xplo

sion

Run

way

Col

lisio

n

LOC

GN

D

Mid

air

Cre

w In

c

Eng

-UC

EF

Sys

-Com

p

Turb

ulen

ce

Eva

c

Po

rtio

n o

f R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.

Implementation of CAST Enhancements Has Implementation of CAST Enhancements Has Significantly Improved Aviation Safety Significantly Improved Aviation Safety

Does not include new “remaining risk” enhancements committed to in 2006

Resources vs. Risk Reduction Highlights Resources vs. Risk Reduction Highlights the Power of the CAST Approachthe Power of the CAST Approach

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Res

ou

rce

Co

st (

$ B

illi

on

s)

Risk Reduction

Total Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

APPROVED PLAN

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Ris

k E

limin

ate

d

Completed

CAST-050

$$ $$ $$

$$

$$

CAST 2002 Plan

Do

llars

/Flt

. Cy

c

Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents100

80

60

40

20

0

Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle

Fatality Risk Reduction

Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle

Or

~ $620 Million Dollars/Year

Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan.

2002 2007

Cost SavingsCost SavingsCost SavingsCost Savings

CAST Maintained Commitment to Implementation CAST Maintained Commitment to Implementation Despite Challenging Post-9/11 Economic ConditionsDespite Challenging Post-9/11 Economic Conditions

CAST demonstrated that prioritized safety makes good business senseCAST demonstrated that prioritized safety makes good business sense

CAST65 SEs40 complete25 in work76% reduction

PAASTCFIT and ALAR

ESSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction

COSCAP UEMOA(late 2005)

COSCAP CISSpecific CIS Projects

COSCAP NA, SA, SEA27 SEs in work60% reduction

COSCAP BA(late 2005)

COSCAP AM

COSCAP GS(2006)

Estimated Fatality Risk Reduction

CAST Outreach Has Improved CAST Outreach Has Improved Aviation Safety World-wideAviation Safety World-wide

SummarySummary

Unprecedented partnership & positive impact

Long-term industry & government commitment

Dramatically improved aviation safety in US and World-wide

Committed to continue to drive future safety improvements- Enable cooperative incident-level data sharing

CAST is deserving of the Collier Trophy

“for its outstanding achievement and dramatically improving the safety of commercial aviation and

saving lives in the US and around the world”

QuestionsQuestions

COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAMCOMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM

Generic model for achieving long Generic model for achieving long term accident rate reductionterm accident rate reduction

TrainingSOPsMaximize existing systemsProactive data management

Design solutions

Acc

iden

t R

ate

Time

Gov’t and Industry Focused ActionGov’t and Industry Focused ActionLed to Dramatic Reduction in Led to Dramatic Reduction in

Wind Shear AccidentsWind Shear Accidents

Wind Shear Accidents

727New Orleans

7/9/82727Doha

3/14/79

DC-9Philadelphia

6/23/76

727Denver8/7/75

707Pago Pago

1/30/74

DC-9Charlotte

7/2/94

L1011Dallas-ft. Worth

8/2/85

DC-10Faro

12/21/92

85 95 20001970 75 80 90

Training/Pilot Guide

R

Reactive Wind ShearSystems

Predictive Wind ShearSystems

Enhancements

CAST metrics to ensure implementation and CAST metrics to ensure implementation and

effectiveness; identify areas for additional actioneffectiveness; identify areas for additional action

Identify

PrioritizeResolve

Monitor

CAST entered loop in 1997/98

98 02 06

3.0

2.0

1.0

UE

F C

ateg

ory

3 &

4 E

vent

s pe

r Y

ear

Year

Uncontained Engine Failure MetricTracking the Progress

Projected Reduced Number of Events

due to Enhanced Inspections

Upper Control Limit

1.0

2.0

040092 9694

4.0

No. of Events expected based on 92 to 98 average rate

No. of Annual Events

Events per year projected without intervention

0705030199979593 9898 0202 0606

3.03.0

2.02.0

1.01.0

UE

F C

ateg

ory

3 &

4 E

vent

s pe

r Y

ear

Year

Uncontained Engine Failure MetricTracking the Progress

Projected Reduced Number of Events

due to Enhanced Inspections

Upper Control Limit

1.0

2.0

040400009292 96969494

4.04.0

No. of Events expected based on 92 to 98 average rate

No. of Annual EventsNo. of Annual Events

Events per year projected without intervention

07070505030301019999979795959393

Fre

que

ncy

Time

Emerging risk due to systemchange

SE-3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 CFIT: Precision-Like Approaches

9/30/04

(15)

AFS-200

(9)

11-30-09

Install VGSE at Each

Runway End

AAF

(8)

AFS-200

(9,19,24,27)

Policy for RNP IFR

procedures(26)

Policy for new approach

procedures

Complete transition to RNAV/RNP

(25b)

ATP-500S&GAS

current aircraft retrofit

(30)

AIA Re-name GPS procedures to

RNAV

AVN

(18)

4/30/07

4/30/03

Crew interaction

for new procedures

(10)

ICAO SARPs S&GAS CAT II/III

(28b)

AFS-400

Harmonized approach minima.

(16)

AFS-200

AFS-400

6/30/01

(9)

(28A)

(6,11,16,19,23,24,27)

5/31-03

Transition to RNAV/RNP

(25a)

ATP-500

(24,27)

5/31-04

AFS-400

(28A)

Refine internationalconcepl for

GLS

SE-3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 CFIT: Precision-Like Approaches

9/30/04

(15)

AFS-200

(9)

11-30-09

Install VGSE at Each

Runway End

AAF

(8)

AFS-200

(9,19,24,27)

Policy for RNP IFR

procedures(26)

Policy for new approach

procedures

Complete transition to RNAV/RNP

(25b)

ATP-500S&GAS

current aircraft retrofit

(30)

AIA Re-name GPS procedures to

RNAV

AVN

(18)

4/30/079/30/04

(15)

AFS-200

(9)

11-30-09

Install VGSE at Each

Runway End

AAF

(8)

AFS-200

(9,19,24,27)

Policy for RNP IFR

procedures(26)

Policy for new approach

procedures

Complete transition to RNAV/RNP

(25b)

ATP-500S&GAS

current aircraft retrofit

(30)

AIA Re-name GPS procedures to

RNAV

AVN

(18)

4/30/07

4/30/03

Crew interaction

for new procedures

(10)

ICAO SARPs S&GAS CAT II/III

(28b)

AFS-400

Harmonized approach minima.

(16)

AFS-200

AFS-400

6/30/01

(9)

(28A)

(6,11,16,19,23,24,27)

5/31-03

Transition to RNAV/RNP

(25a)

ATP-500

(24,27)

5/31-04

AFS-400

(28A)

Refine internationalconcepl for

GLS

4/30/03

Crew interaction

for new procedures

(10)

ICAO SARPs S&GAS CAT II/III

(28b)

AFS-400

Harmonized approach minima.

(16)

AFS-200

AFS-400

6/30/01

(9)

(28A)

(6,11,16,19,23,24,27)

5/31-03

Transition to RNAV/RNP

(25a)

ATP-500

(24,27)

5/31-04

AFS-400

(28A)

Refine internationalconcepl for

GLS

Exploiting FOQA-type data can Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful system benefitsbring powerful system benefits

CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the Futureand Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the FutureCAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis

and Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the Futureand Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the Future

Combining isolated data sources can leverage the power of safety information data sharing

ASAP

Legacy

Weather

AIDS

NAIMS

Firewall

ECCAIRS

PDARS

Other

NTSB

ASRS

ROMAN

SDRNAOMS

FOQA

Possible safety issues