Commercial Aviation Outlook: 2015-2034 by Boeing

Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014

July 2014

Current Market Outlook

2015 Randy Tinseth

Vice President, Marketing June 2015


. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.


Recent market performance, trends 20-year traffic and airplane forecast

Product strategy

Agenda


NOTE: Annual growth rates (%) and cumulative profit ($B)

Cargo market recovering nicely

Passenger market resilient, growing

Global economic growth rate below average

Airlines managing better than ever before

Since 2010


Continued strong replacement demand

Market much more diverse, balanced

Growth driven by emerging economies, LCCs

New airplanes, capabilities opening new markets


20-year traffic and airplane forecast


Twenty-year traffic and product forecast

All regions of the world • 185 airlines / groups • 63 traffic flows

All jets 30 seats and above • No turbo props • No business jets

Freighters

Scheduled and nonscheduled flying


Product strategy

Long-range business plan

Suppliers and airline customers


Accurate

Conservative

Under-forecasted single-aisles

Over-forecasted large and regional jets

Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats

SOURCES: CMO 1995, CMO 2005, ASCEND

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 - 2014

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

1995 - 2014

Medium-term

Long-term

1995 CMO Forecast

2005 CMO Forecast

Actual

Actual


reca

Infrastructure Economic growth

Market liberalization

Emerging markets

Fuel price

Airline strategies &

business models

Airplane capabilities Environment

High speed

rail

Current Market Outlook

2015-2034


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

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1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Resilient, growing market expected to continue 5% long-term growth rate

RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic

RP

Ks

(trill

ions

)

Above

trend

since

2010


Trade GDP level

GDP per capita Labor force

Network structure Infrastructure

Business model Regulatory environment

Macroeconomics

Value of service

Demand


2014 to 2034

3.1% World

economy (GDP)

4.9% Airline traffic

(RPK)

4.7% Cargo traffic (RTK)

Number of airline

passengers 4.0%


~6% traffic growth (RPKs)

SOURCE: IATA and BCA Analysis

+180 million passengers

+900 more airplanes (passenger)


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Market fragmentation drives growth

SOURCE: August OAG Index 1994=1.00

Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets

Average Airplane Size

Air Travel Growth

Wor

ld


It’s what passengers want, not bigger airplanes

New direct routes

Additional frequencies

Larger airplane size on existing

routes

78% 8%

14%


Region Airplanes

Airplane deliveries: 38,050 2015 - 2034

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Regional jets 7%

Single- aisle 70%

Small wide-body

13%

Large wide-body

1%

Medium wide-body

9%

2,490

26,730

4,770 540

3,520

New airplane deliveries by region 2015 - 2034

38%

19%

8%

8% 3%

3%

21%

38,050

Asia 14,330 North America 7,890 Europe 7,310 Middle East 3,180 Latin America 3,020 Africa 1,170 C.I.S. 1,150

World Total 38,050


Region Airplanes

Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion 2015 - 2034

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Regional jets 2%

Single- aisle 50%

Small wide-body

22%

Large wide-body

4%

Medium wide-body

22%

$100B

$2,770B

$1,250B

$230B

$1,220B

New airplane values by region 2015 - 2034

39%

19%

13%

6% 3%

3%

17%

$5.6T

Asia $2,200B North America $940B Europe $1,050B Middle East $730B Latin America $350B Africa $160B C.I.S. $140B

World Total $5,570B


Global fleet will double Units

38,050

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2014 2034

5,510 Retained fleet

16,090 Replacement

42%

21,960 Growth

58%

43,560

21,600


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

WidebodySingle-aisle

Western jets retired with >90 seats, excluding hull losses

SOURCE: Flight Global Ascend


SOURCE: Ascend & Boeing CMO

12%

65%

11% 8%

3% 6%

70%

13%

9% 2%

Large wide-body

Medium wide-body

Single-aisle

Regional jet

Small wide-body

2014

21,600 airplanes

2034

43,560 airplanes


-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

Air cargo market Year-over-year RTK growth

SOURCE: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

New freighter deliveries: 920 2015–2034

Airp

lane u

nits

Market value: $290 billion 2015–2034

Marke

t valu

e

Medium 40-80 tonnes

30% Medium

40-80 tonnes 21%

$60B

Standard <45 tonnes

Large >80 tonnes

79%

$230B

Standard <45 tonnes

Large >80 tonnes

70%

0

50

100

150

200

250

270

650

$0B 0


2015 to 2034 Freighters

Delivery units

2014 Freighters

1,720

2034 Freighters 2,930

Share of fleet

2,340

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1,020

650

400

270

Large production >80 tonnes Wide-body conversions 40-120 tonnes Medium wide-body production 40-80 tonnes Standard-body conversions <45 tonnes


Product strategy


Superior value, efficient market coverage

737-900ER

200

150

100

500

450

400

350

300

250

Seat

s

200

150

100

500

450

400

350

300

250

Seat

s

737-700

737-800

747-8

787-9

777-200ER

777-300ER

787-8 767-300ER

737 MAX 9

737 MAX 8

737 MAX 7

787-9

747-8

787-8

787-10

Current Boeing Future Boeing

777-8X

777-9X

737 MAX 200


Backlog by value ($B)

Backlog = 5,715 aircraft

Value = $435 billion Model Single- Aisle 45%

Twin- Aisle 54%

747

737

767 787

777 Large 1%

Region L.

America & Africa

Asia Pacific

Leasing, Gov't & BBJ

North America

ME, Central

& S. Asia

China, East & SE Asia

Europe &

Russia


Strong, growing market being driven by expansion

Single-aisle fuelling forecast

Boeing product strategy is right for today and the future

Things to remember


For more information, please visit our CMO website:

http://www.boeing.com/cmo

Commercial Aviation Outlook: 2015-2034 by Boeing

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