Comments on “Arctic State Change: Implications for Governance”

Mostly Yukon, NWT

Outline of Presentation

1. Examples of State Change from the Yukon/NWT (2 minutes)

2. Comments on the paper “Arctic State Change” (4 minutes)

3. Predicting “state change” (1 minute)

4. Concluding Remarks/Questions (2 minutes)

Chief Hyacinthe Andre, Gwich’in Chief 1948-1980

Born 1910

State Changes: Examples Yukon

Caribou Herds in the Arctic Declines = Cod Fishery Declines in eastern Canada?

Examples:Chisana Herd: recovery programSouthern Lakes Caribou: recovery program40 Mile Herd: recovery program

THESE ARE SOMEWHAT DESPERATE MEASURES TAKEN TOO LATE

Cultural Change: First Nations

Residential Schools resulted in a “state change” for FNs culture (the “tipping point”)

Land Claims Agreements/Devolution: “state changes” for governance

Was the Berger Inquiry a “tipping” point?

The Six Waves of Change

Land ClaimsDevolution (Territorial empowerment)New Development Assessment ActsRegional Land Use PlanningSingle Resource Mgt Plans

Big Projects Finally Arriving? (Oil and Gas, Diamonds)

Comments on the Paper

Change is not allows a “state change” (not allows a “broken hockey stick”)

What are the other types of change? (slow decline/or rises?)

Which types of change are applicable to the Arctic?

Comments on the Paper

Late 1980-1990’s State Change: decoupling of the south/north: agreed

understates the emergence of the “self-determination” aspects of devolution/land claim/self government

Comments on the Paper:

Agree with the current “state change” that is happening as a result of climate changes and globalization

Some doubt that future governance is either a ecosystem based management future or the re-emergence of the “great game” of power/control and resource exploitation

Predicting “state changes”

If “state change” is irreversible then predicting it is very important

Example: Oil and Gas Development in the North Yukon Region

North Yukon Planning Region

Example: Linear (Access) Density (km/km2)

Establishing Targets/Thresholds

Woodland Caribou population declines observed

R2 = 0.8918

EAGLE PLAINSTODAY

EAGLE PLAINSFUTURE??

Ecological risk increases as you increase linear density – where do we want to be along the “development curve”?

Source: Salmon 200613

Concluding Thoughts/Questions

Is governance “state change” irreversible”?

Could not the Russians and the American’s enter into another “Cold War”

Concluding Thoughts/Questions

It is worth asking “what is not changing?”

Do a series of “state changes” lead to a “system transformation”?

The Arctic is going through many “state changes” … is this leading to a “system transformation?”

“When will the Arctic not be the Arctic?”