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The Product Market and the Ideas Market:

Commercialization Strategies for Technology Entrepreneurs

by

Joshua S. Gans and Scott Stern*

First Draft: 19th May, 2000

This paper develops a framework to explain observed patterns of start-upcommercialization strategy across different industrial sectors. Our analysisfocuses on two alternative start-up innovator commercialization strategies: (a)independent commercialization resulting in competition with more establishedfirms (as observed in, say, the disk drive industry) and (b) cooperativecommercialization through contracting with more established firms (perhapsthrough strategic alliances, licenses, or outright acquisition as observed in thepharmaceutical industry). These different paths have very different implicationsboth in terms of the practical management issues associated with implementationand in terms of their predictions about the role of innovation in enhancingproduct market competition. While contracting in the market for ideas reinforcesthe market power of established firms, independent entry results in a more

competitive product market environment. The analysis is organized around twofundamental environmental drivers of commercialization strategy: the strengthof start-up knowledge assets (e.g., their intellectual property) and the scope ofestablished-firm complementary assets. This allows us to characterize fourdistinct commercialization environments. For each of these environments, weare able to identify start-up strategy, incumbent strategy, the incentives to investin a reputation, and, perhaps most importantly, the relationship betweentechnological and market leadership.

DRAFT ONLY: PRELIMINARY AND VERYINCOMPLETE

* Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne, and NBER and Sloan School of Management,MIT, respectively. Contact author: Scott Stern, Sloan School of Management, MIT, Cambridge, MA,02142. E-mail: [email protected]. The latest version of this paper is available at:

www.mbs.unimelb.edu.au/jgans/research.htm.


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1. Introduction

Over the past two decades, there has been a dramatic increase in the level of

investment in start-up innovation. Start-up innovations are the technologies and

inventions with potential commercial application developed by small, young and/or

entrepreneurial firms. Because of their youth and small size, start-up innovators usually

have little experience in the markets for which their innovations are most appropriate, and

they have at most two or three technologies that are at the stage of potential market

introduction at any one time. For many of these firms, their single most important

management challenge is how to translate these promising technologies into a stream of

economic returns accruing to the firm=s investors and employees. In other words, the

main problem is not so much invention but successful commercialization.

In some cases, technologies that show themselves to be intrinsically superior at a

technical level are, for one reason or another, unsuccessful in the marketplace. For

example, in the development and marketing of typewriter keyboards, a number of designs

(most notably the Dvorak keyboard design) have been promoted as being intrinsically

superior to the so-called QWERTY keyboard (named after the first six letters on the top

row of the typewriter) but have met very little success in the marketplace (David, 1986).

From the perspective of inventors such as Dvorak, the advantages accruing to the

established producers of typewriters using the QWERTY system swamped the benefits of


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the proposed design and so precluded successful commercialization of this promising

technology.1

In other cases, the start-up=s technology is successful in the marketplace but the

lion=s share of the profits accrue to firms other than the start-up innovator. Whether

through outright imitation or improvement upon the core ideas inherent in the start-up

technology, the history of high-technology markets is littered with examples where initial

start-up innovators are unable to successfully appropriate the returns on innovation

(Teece, 1986). To take but one dramatic example, the intermittent windshield wiper was

developed by the independent inventor Robert Kearns; shortly after showing his design to

Ford Motor company, Ford introduced their own intermittent windshield wiper based on

a design and technology close to that of Kearns. For over twenty-five years, Ford (and

the rest of the auto industry which adopted and then build on the Ford design through

cross-licensing agreements and the like) did not pay Kearnss firm any royalties on his

innovation; it was not until 1990 (and after extraordinary personal perseverance on the

part of Kearns in pursuing patent litigation against Ford and other auto manufacturers)

was he able to extract even a portion of the economic returns due to his technological

innovation through (Seabrook, 1994).

In each of these cases, a promising start-up invention was not followed up with

successful commercialization by the initial innovator. Together, these cases raise key

strategic questions for start-up innovators:

Was the failure of the Dvorak design or the inability to appropriate returnson the intermittent windshield wiper inevitable, or might an alternative

1 In this specific case, David (1986) highlights the specific role by the process of technologystandardization and the specific role played by network externalities in helping to explaining the very low

diffusion rate of typewriter designs such as Dvorak.


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commercialization strategy produced a more favorable outcome for theinnovator?

What is the right commercialization strategy for a given invention?

To address these questions, it is useful to examine strategies employed by technology

entrepreneurs who in fact have successfully profited from their ideas. Of key interest

here is that this examination does not lead to a simple statement of best practice; instead,

different (successful) technology entrepreneurs employ extremely different

commercialization strategies. On the one hand, there are a number of (extremely well-

known) cases where successful commercialization by a start-up involves the restructuring

of established market structure and patterns of market power. For example, when Sun

Microsystems entered the workstation market as a start-up innovator, it was mostly

discounted by more established firms such as Digital, IBM, and Apollo Systems.

However, Sun translated its overall technological vision (the network is the computer)

into a concrete series of technological, organizational, and market positioning choices

which allowed Sun to emerge as the dominant firm within its core market within five

years after its founding. On the other hand, some of the most recent spectacular financial

successes by technology entrepreneurs have been earned not by direct entry but through

integration into the value chain constructed by established industry players. For example,

in the field of interconnection technology, companies such as American Internet

Corporation and Growth Networks developed technology and positioned themselves for

acquisition by the market leader, Cisco Systems; in the case of the 20-month-old Growth

Networks, the $355 million acquisition secured an extraordinary return for the firms

stakeholders -- at the time of the acquisition, Cisco paid more than $1 million per


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employee in order to integrate this firms technology and technology development team

into its Internet routing business.

The main goal of this paper is to provide a framework for understanding the

fundamental drivers of these differences in commercialization strategy by start-up

innovators. Our analysis is organized around the contrast between two alternative

commercialization principles: competition and contracting. Under a competition

approach, profiting from technological success involves direct entry into the product

market and posing a challenge to established sources of market power; in other words,

the start-up innovator uses their technological leadership to construct a new value

proposition for the industry. In contrast, under a contracting strategy, successful

commercialization involves working with established firms to integrate the start-up

innovators technology and ideas into the existing value proposition in the industry.

Simply put, the key strategic commercialization choice facing start-up innovators is

between the product market and the ideas market.

The remainder of this paper first describes these two principles of

commercialization in more detail; we highlight both the types of industries and

competitive environments where we tend to see one strategy or the other and, from a

more theoretical perspective, the benefits and costs associated with each approach. We

then turn to the development of our commercialization strategy framework. In addition

to providing a way of understanding the differences in commercialization strategy across

different environments, the framework provides a guide as to the elements of strategy

appropriate for particular competitive environments and some guidance for public policy,

particularly in the areas of antitrust and intellectual property.


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2. Profiting From Innovation: The Product Market versus theIdeas Market

For many technology-based start-ups, reaching the commercialization stage is the

first opportunity to truly define a firms strategy and positioning. Prior to the irreversible

strategic choices related to commercialization, the start-up innovator is often able to have

multiple strategic visions coexist among the firms managers and within the organization

more generally; indeed, technology entrepreneurs often exploit this ambiguity to attract

initial investors and employees, each of whom has a different vision of the opportunities

afforded by the new organization. However, the process of choosing how to bring a new

technology to the market forces a companys managers to confront a set of concrete

choices about how to translate their technological vision into sustainable competitive

advantage. By successfully implementing these strategic decisions, the organization

begins to reflect areas of competence necessary for success within a given strategy.2

One view of competition attributed to Joseph Schumpeter sees innovation-

based entry as the principal means of the eroding incumbent market power. Indeed,

Schumpeters main concern was that innovation might become beyond the reach of the

smaller firm. This is because the increasing internal financial resources required to bring

those products to final consumers could only be feasibly undertaken by larger incumbents

who have little incentive to create products that cannabalize their existing sunk assets.

Hence, competition would fall away along with previous patterns of technological

dynamism.

2 Of course, the relationship between organizational definition and firm strategy is more iterative than the

perspective provided here. However, particularly for start-up innovators, the commercialization process isthe first instance in which concrete strategic decisions are made and are then reflected in the organziations


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In recent times, however, there is renewed interest in the process by which

smaller research-oriented firms pursue innovative activity. In particular, the

Schumpeterian view widespread in the economics literature3 that small firms will

commercialize their innovations by competing with incumbents in the product market has

been challenged anecdotally, empirically and theoretically. Anecdotally, there are many

examples of firms where small, research-oriented start-ups never enter the product market

directly. Instead, they choose to commercialize their innovations by contracting by

means of licensing, partnerships or acquisition with product market incumbents. Such

cooperative commercialization strategies are commonplace in among biotechnology start-

ups.

Empirically, there appears to be heterogeneity in commercialization patterns

across industries. Figure 1 depicts the proportion of small firm innovations that chose

cooperative rather than competitive commercialization paths by industry group.4 The

pattern confirms the anecdotal evidence regarding cooperation used in biotechnology

versus more competitive strategies in among smaller electronics firms. This heterogeneity

is substantial; suggesting important industry-specific drivers of commercialization

strategies.

boundaries and structures (Burgelman, 1994). Also, short discussion of dynamic capabilities (Teece, Shuen,and Pisano, 1998).3 See, for example, Gilbert and Newbery (1982) and Reinganum (1989).4 This was based on a sample of over 100 small firms surveyed by Gans, Hsu and Stern (2000).


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Finally, from the perspective of economic theory, there are two reasons why a

cooperative path would result in greater rents being appropriated by small firms than if

they pursued a competitive path. First, by cooperating with product market incumbents,

small start-ups avoid the costly investment in complementary assets required for

successful product market entry. Instead, a cooperative arrangement allows the

innovation to be combined with an incumbents existing complementary assets; thereby,

minimising potential cannabilisation. Second, a cooperative path avoids the dissipation of

monopoly rents that might otherwise occur with product market competition. Generally,

the sum of profits of an incumbent and entrant from competition are lower than the

F i g u r e 1 : P r o b a b i l i t y o f C o o p e r a t i o n b y I n d u s t r i a l S e g m e n t

( f r o m G a n s , H s u a n d S t e r n , 2 0 0 0 )

0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

B io te ch no lo gy I nd us tr ia l E qu ip me nt E le ct ro nics I ns t r ume nt s C om pu te r S of tw ar e

I n d u s t r i a l S e g m e n t


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profits the incumbent might earn if it had exclusive access to the innovation. Hence,

choosing a cooperative path preserves industry rents precisely because it subverts the

competitive impact of an innovation.

The broad implication of all this is that the potential for cooperative

commercialization paths to be chosen by small start-ups challenges the Schumpeterian

notions that independent innovation was a force of creative destruction and that

innovation that requires complementary assets for commercialization will become the

exclusive domain of larger, financially-resourced incumbents. When start-ups choose a

cooperative path they explicitly minimise the destructive tendencies for innovative

activity and act to reinforce rather than subvert product market power. Also, in so doing,

the possibility of commercializing innovations through a market for ideas rather than the

product market per se, gives smaller firms an opportunity to appropriate rents from

innovative activity without the need for costly investment in complementary product

market assets. In effect, the ability of small start-ups and incumbents to trade in markets

for ideas is a substitute for product market competition based on innovation.

Consequently, innovation is neither an avenue for increased competition nor is it

necessarily the exclusive domain of less innovative incumbent firms. When cooperation

is possible there will be a lot less destruction but a lot more creation than Schumpeter

envisaged.

From the above discussion, it can be seen that the choice between cooperative and

competitive commercialization paths is both an important phenomenon the patterns of

which differ across industries that gives rise to crucial considerations in the role of

innovation as a competitive force in product markets. Thus, it becomes important to


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consider in detail why some start-ups in some industries tend to follow more cooperative

commercialization paths than those in other industries. Hence, a goal of this paper is to

identify the critical factors that drive this choice and what they mean for the strategies of

entrants and incumbents and overall patterns of technological change at an industry level.

Also, by identifying factors that determine commercialization paths we can also provide a

means of predicting such patterns and informing start-ups and incumbents of important

directions they might commit to as part of their research strategies. Finally, we will then

be able to use these factors to sort among prior perspective that treat some or all of these

factors as fixed.

3. Benefits and Costs of Trading in Ideas Markets

The previous section outlined the broad choice facing start-up innovators as to

whether to commercialize their innovation by competing with established firms in the

product market or contracting with those firms through the ideas market. This choice

depends not so much on the absolute returns it will receive from a cooperative path per se

but on its return relative to a choice of competition. This distinction is important as

transactions in ideas markets take place in the shadow of potential returns by competing

in product markets. That is, competition is both an alternative commercialization path

and potentially the default option for start-up innovators. Consequently, some factors

such as stronger intellectual property rights and a greater competitive advantage to

smaller firms will give the start-up higher returns on either path whereas we seek here

to identify the factors that will cause those firms to favour one commercialization path

over another.


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From this perspective, a competitive choice is really one of choosing to by-pass

ideas markets entirely. That is, a start-up sees value in committing to a product market

presence rather than exploring intermediate trading options for the innovation itself. This

means that we need to consider what the benefits and costs are to start-up firms in

engaging in ideas market trading as opposed to avoiding such trades altogether (at least

given the current stage of development of their innovation).

There are several clear benefits of commercializing innovations through ideas

markets. Essentially, these are the same type of benefits that would arise from non-

integration of the start-up firm in product market activities; allowing it to develop ideas

production as its core competency. First, commercializing through ideas markets means

that costly duplicative investments are avoided. The start-up firm themselves avoids the

costs associated with developing assets for manufacturing, distribution and marketing

that may already exist elsewhere. Established firms that cooperate with the start-up avoid

having to engage in imitative research programs that would become necessary as they

attempt to catch-up with a new entrant. At the very least, a cooperative strategy allows

the incumbent and start-up to use their common advantages to economize on further

development and commercialization costs.

Second, a start-up focused on innovation and that is rewarded only in terms of the

value of that innovation to incumbent firms has high-powered incentives to create

innovations that are of specific value to those firms (Aghion and Tirole, 1994). Hence,

start-up innovations will complement rather than cannibalize an incumbents existing

assets and allow it to be a more effective competitor in product markets. Thus,


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established firms can utilize some important advantages smaller, focused firms possess in

generating ideas. MORE?

Finally, a cooperative path pursued by trading innovations in ideas markets avoids

the dissipation of monopoly rents that might otherwise occur with product market

competition. Generally, the sum of profits of an incumbent and entrant from competition

are lower than the profits the incumbent might earn if it had exclusive access to the

innovation. Hence, choosing a cooperative path preserves industry rents precisely

because it subverts the competitive impact of an innovation. The end result is softer

product market competition and an extension of the incumbents product market

franchise.

Notice that there are distinct benefits to ideas market trading in terms of

increasing industry-wide returns from the innovation. The avoidance of duplicative

investments, the creation of incentives by start-ups minimizing cannibalization and the

softening of product market competition increase or preserve industry profits relative to a

situation where the start-up avoided such contracting. However, while the start-ups

returns are likely to be higher, the more important are each of these benefits, the start-up

will also be concerned with their expected returns from this path as opposed to

competition. In particular, if the process of searching and engaging in negotiations with

incumbent firms was costly or itself weakened a start-up firms potential competitive

position in the product market, the start-up might have an incentive to by-pass such

contracting opportunities.

To see this, we consider some potential frictions that make it difficult to transact

in and maintain ideas markets. First, in order to contract with an incumbent partner, a


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start-up must search for and convince that incumbent of the value of their innovation.

Such search costs must be incurred ex ante, so naturally a start-up will be concerned

about their eventual return. If it is difficult to convince incumbents of the value of an

innovation, rather than incurring the transaction costs associated with doing so, a start-up

may find it more attractive to take their chances in product market competition. Hence, a

start-up may choose a competitive strategy even though ex post there would have been

mutual gains to trade in the idea itself.

Second, there is a more fundamental problem associated with contracting over

ideas: the disclosure problem. The difficulty with selling an idea is that the potential

buyer needs to see the idea and understand it in order to establish their willingness-to-pay

for the idea. However, it is possible that such disclosure may lead to opportunistic

behaviour by the buyer who may expropriate the idea claiming that it was already known.

Arrow (1962) sums up the problem

In the absence of special legal protection, the owner cannot, however, simply sell

information on the open market. Any one purchaser can destroy the monopoly, since he

can reproduce the information at little or no cost. Thus the only effective monopolywould be the use of the information by the original possessor.

He goes on

there is a fundamental paradox in the determination of demand for information; itsvalue for the purchaser is not known until he has the information, but then he has in effectacquired it without cost. Of course, if the seller can retain property rights in the use of the

information, this would be no problem, but given incomplete appropriability, thepotential buyer will base his decision to purchase information on less then optimalcriteria. He may act, for example, on the average value of information in that class as

revealed by past experience. If any particular item of information has differing values fordifferent economic agents, this procedure will lead both to a non-optimal purchase of

information at any given price and also to a non-optimal allocation of the informationpurchased.

At one level, this is just a problem of imperfect property rights. An idea as an asset is not

easy to own and control. It is not easy to exclude users and, moreover, secrecy as a means

of exclusion is given up whenever there is an attempt to trade the idea. The idea seller is


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faced with low prices regardless of whether the idea is revealed prior to trade or not. This

is a problem because of necessary private information:

Idea value: the buyer does not know the true value of the idea (lowering price prior to

revelation).

Idea source: the source of the idea is not ex ante or ex post verifiable (lowering price

after revelation)

If either of these private information problems were eliminated there would be no

disclosure problem. This is because the use of the idea by the buyer must be verifiable. If

this were not the case then only by resolving the idea source problem could the disclosure

problem be solved.

Consequently, the start-up firm may anticipate such expropriation and avoid

contractual negotiations altogether. Hence, the possibility of disclosure problem is a

reason why a market for ideas may not exist. Essentially, it is a problem of a weakness in

the start-ups intellectual property protection over their innovation. An ironclad patent

would give the start-up the ability to exclude the incumbent firm from utilising

innovations that may have been disclosed during negotiations.5

Alternatively, a strong competitive option could, as Anton and Yao (1995)

suggest provide a start-up firm with indirect protection in situations where property rights

are weak. If a start-up could enter product market competition and if the incumbents

profits from monopoly as opposed to competition were large, then failure to reach

agreement could become relatively more costly for the incumbent firm than any returns

5 Example of windshield wiper case described here.


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from expropriation. In effect, the incumbent decides to pay the start-up so as to preserve

monopoly rents rather than for the value of the innovation per se.6

This suggests that there are two factors that will be critical in determining whether

the start-up chooses a cooperative or competitive commercialization path. First, as an

incumbents complementary assets become more important in generating a value from

the innovation, the incumbent and start-up will have an enhanced incentive to reach a

contracting agreement and avoid costly duplication of those assets. This is especially the

case when start-up entry into the product market may lead to a large loss in profits to the

incumbent. The absence of such complementary asset places the incumbent and start-up

on a more equal footing in product market competition making such competition

relatively more attractive from the small firms perspective.

Second, as the start-ups ability to exclude the incumbent from utilizing the

innovation increases, the lower are the costs that it bears in transacting in the market for

ideas. In effect, strong intellectual property protection is the lubricant of a well-

functioning ideas market and creates incentives for start-ups to be concerned about the

industry profits from the innovation that could be achieved through cooperation as

opposed to competition. Without such protection, fear of disclosure may lead to the start-

up pursuing a more secretive path; controlling the innovation through commercialization

stages in order to gain a competitive edge over the incumbent in the product market.

6 Like Rasmusen (1988).


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4. A Framework for Commercialization Environments

In the previous section we explained why commercialization paths of competition

versus cooperation are a choice for start-up firms and how their relative likelihood relates

to the importance of incumbent complementary assets and the strength of intellectual

property protection. In this section, we build upon this insight to suggest that the two

dimensions of incumbent complementary assets and intellectual property protection can

be combined to yield a framework that completely covers patterns of competitive

interaction through innovation over all industries. That is, our framework suggests that

these two dimensions fundamentally guide start-up and incumbent research and

competitive interactions in both ideas and product markets.

To see this more clearly, we ask two questions of the commercialization

environment a start-up may be faced with following the successful generation of a

commercializable innovation:

( Intellectual Property Protection) Can innovation by the start-up preclude

effective development by the incumbent?

(Complementary Asset Availability) Do the incumbents complementary assets

contribute to the value proposition from the new technology?

Notice that there are four possible combinations of yes/no answers to these questions.

Table 1 labels each of the resulting environments and our purpose is to describe each in

turn. In particular, for each we will describe start-up strategies, incumbent strategies, real

world industry examples and the related research literature.


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Table 1: Identifying Commercialization Environments

Do incumbents complementary assetscontribute to the value proposition from the

new technology

No Yes

No

Head-to-HeadCompetition/Attackers

Advantage

InternalDevelopment or

Reputation-BasedIdeas Trading

Can innovation bythe start-up

preclude effectivedevelopment by the

incumbent? Yes

Internal development

or Non-exclusiveLicensing

Ideas

Factory/Contractingor Spot Trading of

Ideas

3.1 Head-to-Head Competition

Consider an environment where start-ups have limited abilities to exclude

imitative development by the incumbent but where incumbents do not possess important

complementary assets that could not be accessed elsewhere. In this environment, the

start-up and incumbent face a level playing field. On the one hand, this frees the start-up

from duplicating previous incumbent investment. On the other, however, it is an

environment where the start-ups technological leadership may be fleeting. Competition in

this type of industry is likely to be intense with incumbents facing constant entry

challenges that destroy the value of existing competencies and where start-ups face

difficulties in appropriating value from their innovations over the longer-term; as they

become incumbents in an environment that does not value incumbency.

In this world, start-ups have an opportunity to capture market leadership by the

effective development of competence destroying technology. That is, attackers have an


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advantage (Foster, 1985). Moreover, there are few opportunities for the start-up to

contract with current market leaders due to the relative salience of a disclosure problem.

Consequently, the most effective start-up strategy is one of stealth. They gain

competitive advantage by choosing niche customers, reconfiguring architectures and not

provoking a competitive response from incumbents until it is too late.

For incumbents, the basis of their competitive advantage is based on products not

competencies. Indeed, each may persist in name only with incumbents benefiting from

research strategies that dismiss their current competencies and instead focus on

technological opportunities that might be occupied by new entrants. A sustainable market

position involves constant reinvention and pre-emption of rivals. When studying similar

environments, Christensen (1997) sent a message to incumbents that they might be

subject to S-curve blind spots (i.e., that fail to not that their current products are

reaching the end of an accelerated growth period and instead assume continued growth).

Consider, for example, Figure 2 that demonstrates the lack of leadership by established

firm in the hard disk drive sector. In response, an effective strategy for the incumbent

involves constant monitoring of new developments and a clearer integration of market

knowledge and technical know-how.


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Figure 2: Leadership of Entrant Firms in the Hard Disk Drive Sector

Source:Christensen (1997), p. 23.

In the end, this is a world of tight integration between research and

commercialization and where market leadership is ultimately determined by

technological leadership. Competition forces firms to undertake high levels of risky R&D

investment in order to survive with established firms falling into competency traps and

becoming subject to the attackers advantage. (e.g., Softbank). On the other hand, start-

ups will invest in seemingly duplicative complementary assets in terms of manufacturing,

marketing etc. as part of establishing a novel value proposition.


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3.2 The Ideas Factory

Standing in complete contrast to head-to-head competition is the ideas factory

environment. In this world, the answer to our two questions is affirmative with start-ups

able to exclude further development of the innovation by the incumbent but where the

incumbent possesses complementary assets the innovation is specialized to.

Consequently, trade in markets for ideas is both feasible and highly desirable so that

start-up firms can specialize in innovation the so-called ideas factory (Pisano) and

contract with incumbents to commercialize the innovation in the product market through

an exclusive licensing arrangement (Gans and Stern, 2000).

Therefore, the key issue for start-ups is no long if they should contract with an

incumbent but when. Moreover, their performance will depend critically on the degree of

bargaining power they command in markets for ideas; that is, their ability to play

incumbents off against one another and prevent work-around technologies from gaining a

product market foothold. In this environment, entering into the product market is both

highly costly and potentially very low in return. Consequently, the threat of competition

does not play a crucial role in bargaining so that start-ups have maximal incentives to

tailor their innovations to incumbents existing asset base; i.e., minimise cannibalization.

For incumbents, start-up technology would not be viewed as a threat as it is in

head-to-head competition. Instead, it is a critical source of improvement to the current

product set. Their sustained market position requires co-opting potential competitors

through the ideas market; indeed, to the point of assisting start-ups with technical and

financial assistance. The primary challenge is to balance internally developed and

externally available technologies in the product development process.


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To see how an ideas factory works consider the intensively studied than the

patent race for human insulin that occurred in the late 1970s (a popular account of this

research is provided in an entertaining book by Hall (1988)). Closely watched at the time

by industry observers and public policy makers, the development of a human insulin

product represented the first commercially-oriented product in the novel field of

biotechnology; as such, innovative investments towards that development goal were

closely watched and the scientific and commercial issues which arose set the context for

debates about the proper use and organization of biotechnology research (for a useful

summary of these debates, see Krimsky (1982)). In the twenty years since the successful

development of insulin by the start-up firm Genentech, the case of human insulin has

been used again and again as an example to motivate different models of technological

competition (for instance, the main case used to explain technological competition and

patent races to business school students is The Race to Develop Human Insulin (Parese

and Brandenberger, 1992)).

Most analysts date the commencement of this case of technological competition

to a research conference hosted by Eli Lilly in May, 1976. As the worlds leading

producer of insulin for diabetics, Lilly arranged the conference to assess whether novel

recombinant DNA tools could be utilized to produce human insulin, providing a quality-

improving substitute to the pork and beef insulin that had been used historically in the

treatment of diabetes. While molecular biologists were extremely excited by the

possibilities of rDNA from a scientific perspective, few analysts or scientists expressed a

belief that there would be important commercial applications in the near future;


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moreover, most of the main researchers were employed by universities, limiting their

incentives and opportunity to explore commercial applications.

The Lilly research meeting, along with continued encouragement by Lilly in the

form of research funding and commitments to license commercializable technology,

provided researchers with new information that financial returns could be realised

through the application of the new scientific tools. As a result, three separate research

teams pursued programs aimed at the expression of the insulin gene (a necessary

condition for commercial exploitation of the rDNA techniques). Two of the teams, based

at the biology/biochemistry departments of Harvard and UC-SF, were essentially

university research labs diverting attention and resources away from purely scientific

projects and towards the commercially relevant human insulin project. The third team

was initiated by Genentech, a start-up biotechnology firm founded by an entrepreneur

(Bob Swanson) and a scientist (Herbert Boyer), which operated outside of the confines of

a university research lab.

According to all accounts of the research, each of these three teams was aware of

the investments by the others and acted to pre-empt the other teams research success.

For example, the UC-SF research team violated NIH rules regarding the use of genetic

materials in their experiments; this type of violation was serious enough so that a leading

researcher speculated that Capitalism sticking its nose in the lab has tainted

interpersonal relationsthe UCSF team was in competition with a group at Harvard

which was known to be working with better source material. (David Martin, quoted in

Wade, 1977, p. 1342). As well, the Harvard team, headed by Walter Gilbert, chose to

discontinue support for a well-regarded graduate student, Forrest Fuller, precisely


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because Fuller was unable to successfully contribute to his assigned portion of the

commercialisation project (see Hall, 1988, pp. 176-178).

Perhaps most telling, Genentech chose to pursue an alternative research strategy

gene synthesis which was more amenable to commercialisation prospects because it

was not subject to burdensome NIH regulations governing the use of genetic materials.

Despite the use of this alternative approach, the possibility of pre-emption was one of the

most important tools used by Genentech management in motivating their researchers. As

recounted by Roberto Crea, one of the principal Genentech scientists, Definitely the

name of Wally Gilbert was in Swansons mouth all the time. That we had to beat

himSwanson used that as a management tool to keep pressure on Goeddel, knowing

that Goeddel was so competitive. (Roberto Crea, quoted in Hall, pp. 219)

Under the threat of pre-emption, each research team pursued human insulin until

August, 1978, at which time Genentech researchers were able to successfully synthesize

the human insulin gene in bacteria, opening the door to the first commercial application

of biotechnology. One day after their experiment was validated, Genentech signed an

exclusive license agreement with Eli Lilly which granted Lilly the manufacturing rights

to Genentechs intellectual property and contracting with Genentech for collaboration on

certain of the scale-up activities for which Genentech would have greater expertise. One

of the distinctive feature of the negotiations around this license is that, despite Lillys

encouragement of the research, Lilly turned out to be an extremely strong negotiator, de-

emphasising Lillys need for the technology (they could continue to use animal insulin)

and discounting claims by Swanson of the viability of the product (Hall, p. 23*).


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The irony of this case is that the realised gains from this research investment came

in the form of a license to the incumbent Eli Lilly. Most prior economic models of

technological competition which evaluate the relative R&D incentives of incumbents and

entrants exclude this possibility by dictating competition in the product market after the

realisation of the innovation. While Lilly did pursue a research program, Lillys main

investments were focused towards encouraging research by independent researchers,

confident that successful innovations could be licensed and that the independent research

teams would be in a relatively weak bargaining power in negotiations.

What is perhaps most interesting about this case is that it is, by all accounts, not

unique for the biotechnology industry. Except for a small number of exceptions,

biotechnology firms either became licensors of their technology to a large established

firm (which retained responsibility for FDA approval procedures, marketing, etc) or

were purchased outright by such a firm through an acquisition. As noted by Orsenigo,

the NBFs, born to exploit commercially their unique skills in the new technologies,

attempted to integrate forward and to acquire capabilities in production but, in most

cases, became specialized suppliers of very specific technical know-how. (Orsenigo,

p.145). Indeed, despite a radical change in the scientific underpinnings of

pharmaceutical research and waves of entry by independent research firms attempting to

exploit these scientific opportunities, there has been little change in the downstream sales

leadership of pharmaceutical products (excluding mergers and acquisitions between

companies) (Henderson and Cockburn, 1996; Gambardella, 199*). Instead of sustained

waves of displacement of incumbents, the set of incumbents has remained relatively


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constant and the incentives for entry for independent firms has been the expectation of

being acquired by one of these incumbent firms.

Thus, the ideas factory paints a picture of a competitive environment focused on

the ideas market. While there may be some competition between start-up firms and

established firms in that market, once an innovation is generated, there are substantial

gains to trade as those firms become complementors. As a consequence, there may well

be frequent changes in technological leadership and the sources of innovation as start-up

firms compete to generate innovations but these changes will not translate into changes in

market leadership (see Table 2 that demonstrates the persistent market leadership of

established pharmaceutical firms). In effect, start-up firms compete with each other for

priority in negotiations with the market leader whose own position is assured by this

process and their existing product market asset base. New technologies reinforce and

build upon this base because the key to maximizing returns in the ideas market depends

on such reinforcement. Indeed, for that reason it is encouraged by established firms.

Table 2: Pharmaceutical Firm Market Leadership

Sales Rank,

1997

Company Date Established Sales Rank,

1973

1 Merck 17th century 2

2 Bristol-MyersSquibb

1887, 1856 9

3 American HomeProducts

1926 6

4 Pfizer 1848 7

5 Abbott Labs 1900 21

6 Eli Lilly 1876 117 Warner Lambert 1852 3

8 Baxter 1931 79

9 Schering-Plough 1851 15

10 SmithKline Beecham 1830 31

Sources: Various corporate web sites; BioWorld 1998; James, 1977.


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3.3 Winner-Take-All Competition

There is no necessary reason why the answers to our two questions should be

correlated; that is, there are shades of grey to these aggressively competitive and mutually

cooperative outcomes. Indeed, one could have a situation where a start-ups innovation is

excludable but also overturns the value of incumbents assets. The formal economics

literature emphasises the potential for a non-integrative outcome by demonstrating the

profitability of widespread licensing once an innovator has established property rights

over an innovation (Arrow, 1962). However, until that point incumbents and start-ups

should compete aggressively to be the first to win control of an innovation either through

a patent (Gilbert and Newbery, 1982; Reinganum, 1989) or the establishment of a

technological standard (Katz and Shapiro, 1987). Thus, incumbents and start-ups are

participants in a winner-take-all race. Consequently, incumbents should view their

innovative activity as partly defensive against the potentially highly incentivized entrant

start-ups (Reinganum, 1989).

So for start-ups, a winner-take-all market is a tremendous opportunity where they

are unconstrained by past investments but have maximal ability to earn returns form an

innovation; if they succeed in the race to patent or in establishing a standard. However, in

this they face an aggressive response from others precisely because returns are so high.

Incumbents with established monopolies will be keen to preserve them. Their competitive

advantage, however, rests on similar terms to start-ups and not on their established

competences. Moreover, the benefits of maintaining their monopoly may be eroded in

part by potential weakness in the bargaining position in markets for ideas as start-ups

have solid alternative options. Indeed, it is only be ceding rents to upstream technology


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partners that incumbents can hope to sustain their market position. But such sustained

presence comes at the cost of profits. Just as it was in dog-eat-dog competition where

incumbents were forced to accelerate cannibalistic R&D investments, an incumbents

profit base is eroded by the need to pay dearly for cannibalistic innovations in the market

for ideas.

EXAMPLES: RETAILING? STANDARDS WARS

This competitive environment is potentially very intense but also the industry

rents accruing to successful innovation are higher. Where the rents go depends much less

on becoming the market leader per se but developing the winning technology. That is the

source of bargaining power over the value chain and, indeed, gives technological

providers an opportunity to use this power to buy the benefits of incumbency.

3.4 Reputation-Based Ideas Trading

When a start-ups innovation is not excludable but incumbents possess key

complementary assets, while there is a large incentive to trade in ideas, ideas markets

themselves are difficult to establish and maintain. In a head-to-head competitive world,

the incentive for trade is not there; making competition the feasible commercialization

path. Firms there are driven towards secrecy while keenly monitoring for technological

opportunity. When there is a value to incumbency, incumbents themselves drive the

potential value of ideas trading. However, unless they manage short-term temptations to

expropriate rents from start-ups, incumbents will be forced to rely in in-house research

capabilities with consequent low powered incentives on researchers (Aghion and

Tirole, 1994). In this scenario, the rate of innovative activity will be diminished.


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A more favourable outcome is possible if incumbents can develop a reputation for

rewarding start-ups for successful innovation even though they might be able to imitate

an idea relatively easily. That reputation encourages start-up entry in an otherwise

incomplete contracting world and, moreover, encourages a closer working relationship

between start-ups and incumbent firms. Incumbent firms that succeed in establishing

relational research contracts (Baker, Gibbons and Murphy, 2000) will be able to generate

a greater rate of product innovation than their competitors. This provides those

incumbents with an opportunity to move beyond the highly integrated structures in dog-

eat-dog competition and use a virtual ideas factory model to sustain market leadership.

Symantec Corporation practices this type of strategy. It has established a

reputation for acquisition of entrepreneurial start-ups at a reasonable price and also the

sensitive integration of those firms into its larger organization. Consequently, software

developers have come to see Symantec as a potential partner in development rather than a

competitor.

USER-BASED INNOVATION MODEL

This environment will be characterized by far less market and technological

stability than other structures. In most cases, the lions share of innovation is the result of

internal development. Nonetheless, a substantial opportunity exists for incumbents to

encourage external innovation by providing rewards and incentives through relational

contracting despite the lack of property rights and potential for expropriation and hold-up

of start-up researchers.


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5. Empirical Evidence

The main argument of the previous section was that the dimensions of intellectual

property protection and the importance of incumbent complementary assets allow us to

characterize alternative commercialization environments facing start-up innovators. In

particular, for each combination of answers to our guiding questions, we can identify the

profitability of cooperative as opposed to competitive commercialization strategies and

how this alters the strategic positions of incumbents and start-ups in both product and

ideas markets.

Of particular interest is the start-ups choice of cooperation over competition. As

noted earlier, this choice is critical in determining whether the locus of technological

competition is ideas or product markets and whether the Schumpeterian gale of creative

destruction actually blows or not. If start-ups pursue cooperative commercialization

strategies, incumbent market power is likely to be reinforced rather than challenged by

start-up innovation.

Gans, Hsu and Stern (2000) provide an empirical examination of the choice of

commercialization strategy and, in particular, how that choice relates to intellectual

property protection and the importance of specialized complementary assets. Table 3

reports their principal findings arising from their survey of start-up firms that have

successfully generated a commercially viable innovation over a range of industry

segments. Notice that, as predicted in Section 3, cooperation is more likely to be chosen

over cooperation when intellectual property protection is strong and complementary

assets are important.


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Table 3: Proportion Choosing Cooperation

Entrants Cost of Acquiring Necessary Complementary Assets

Relatively Low Relatively High

Nopatents

14% 31%

NumberofPatentsAssociatedwiththeProject

Atleastonepatent

35% 56%


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Conclusion

TO BE DONE ...


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