Coming oil crisis:will there be some surviving ?Uppsala, 24 May 2002Pavel StroevFolkecenter for Renewable EnergyDenmark

Cities traffic – zone of troubles

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

THE RACES

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

is promoting new holes for the oil

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

to drive and live in the traffic

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

We like to drive –we don’t need to love alive people

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

And from the ancient times

We like to live today We need simplest life So We are transferring major costs to the future And we are establishing more and more

difficult technical solutions

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

We still accept nuclear

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

and the big thermal power plants

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

in spite of people movements

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

but we are sure that the wind power is spoiling our landscape

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

World events and crude oil prices

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Stock Values for WT producers

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Change in Stock Values since 1/1-14/3 2000

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

05-jan 19-jan 03-feb 16-feb 02-mar 14-mar

Rel

ativ

e ch

ange

(1/1

/200

0 =

0)

NEG Micon KFX-index (Copenhagen) VestasSource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

THE BASIS OF THE GERMANRENEWABLE ENERGY LAW (EEG), 2000

The grid operator is obliged to connect renewable energy plants, to give priority to their electricity production, and to pay accordingly.

For new plants, the minimum tariff applies for 20 years from the year of installation (with the exception of hydropower). For existing plants, the year 2000 counts as installation year.

The tariffs are differentiated depending on energy source, location, and plant size, decreasing and limited in time.

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Installed capacity in the USANo. of MW (1981-1999)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

MW

0

400

800

1.200

1.600

2.000

2.400

2.800

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Installed capacity in IndiaNo. of MW (1985-1999)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

MW

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1.050

1.200

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Installed capacity in the UKNo. of MW (1990-1999)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MW

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Installed capacity in SpainNo. of MW (1990-1999)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MW

0

450

900

1.350

1.800

2.250

2.700

3.150

3.600

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Installed capacity in GermanyNo. of MW (1987-1999)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MW

0

800

1.600

2.400

3.200

4.000

4.800

5.600

6.400

7.200

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Installed capacity in DenmarkNo. of MW (1981-1999)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

MW

0

300

600

900

1.200

1.500

1.800

2.100

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Dynamics of installed Wind Power Capacity per Year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MW

Selected counties of the quantity regulation system: UK, Ireland, France and Netherlands;Guaranteed price system: Germany, Denmark (up to January 2000) and Spain

The Earth is alive like we are

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

And

It is living for its own rules that we cannot change

just follow or not

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Will there be some surviving?

No if we will continue Yes if we will get 100% renewable energy supply Reduction of consumption Changing the basis of society based on

knowledge New culture and quality of life

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

Thank you for Thank you for attention!attention!

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?