8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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EKBAT MLD MUTAPKHD PHUO> ML MLMCXUHU KG TFA =8:6TQLIQUOM AWALT

PBU Uzaehmc Pazkpt

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, =

HLTPKDQETHKL

Ampcx hl tfa bkplhli kl Nqla 5:# =8:6# m ihmlt mhp`qput keeqppad kwap tfa `muhl kg tfa Zkdomballmxm TqliquomPhwap hl Ealtpmc Uh`aphm# Pquuhm# cawachli tpaau kwap ml mpam kg 0#::: ob 0 &99: bh0( &Ghiqpa =(, Axayhtlauuaudaueph`ad m ‑ghpa `mcc# `phift mu tfa Uql‗  &Cklik# 0::9(, Tfa awalt zpkdqead uahubhe mld zpauuqpa ymwau tfmt

yapa paekpdad mcc kwap tfa ykpcd mld cad tk mtbkuzfaphe zfalkbalm &a,i,# `phift lhiftu# lkethcqealt eckqdu(k`uapwad kwap bqef kg Aqpmuhm, Tfa pacamuad alapix ymu cmtap authbmtad tk `a a}qhwmcalt tk m =: baimtkl&Btkl( TLT avzckuhkl# m`kqt =#::: thbau mu zkyapgqc mu tfa lqecamp `kb` dpkzzad kwap Fhpkufhbm hl =841,  Mctfkqif tfa kphihl kg tfhu zfalkbalkl fmu `aal yhdacx da`mtad gkp tfa zmut ealtqpx# ht hu lky ialapmccxmeeaztad tfmt tfa `cmut ymu dqa tk tfa avzckuhkl kg m ekbat kp ml mutapkhd hl tfa ckyap mtbkuzfapa# keeqpphlimt m fahift kg 1 tk =: ob &5 tk 7 bh( kwap tfa pabkta Uh`aphml gkpaut# mld bamuqphli mzzpkvhbmtacx 1: b &=74gt( hl dhmbatap &Cklik# 0::9 mld fttz>++yyy"tf,`k,hlgl,ht+tqliquom+(,

Ghiqpa => Gaccad tpaau hl tfa Tqliquom hbzmet mpam hl Pquuhm gkcckyhli ml avzckuhkl kg ml mutapkhd kp m ekbat hl tfa mtbkuzfapa kl Nqla 5:# =8:6? m`kqt 6: bhcchkl tpaau yapa cawacad `x tfa `cmut &Ukqpea> Ukwhat Memdabx kg Uehalea =809 avzadhthkl cad `x Caklhd Oqcho( 

Dqa tk tfa pabkta hbzmet ckemthkl# tfhu dhumutap dhd lkt emqua mlx uhilhghemlt dmbmia tk fqbml uattcabaltu,Fkyawap# tfa keeqppalea kg m Tqliquom"txza awalt kwap m zkzqcmtad paihkl ykqcd ekluthtqta m bmnkp

emtmutpkzfa, Tfhu pazkpt `aihlu yhtf m dhuequuhkl kg tfa phuo muukehmtad yhtf avtpmtappautphmc `kdhau kp`hthli tfauql# hlecqdhli ekbatu mld mutapkhdu# yfhef eml `aekba batakpu mld batakphtau# fhtthli tfa Amptf‘u mtbkuzfapa mld uqpgmea# pauzaethwacx, Avmbzcau kg ubmcc mld bkdapmta"uh~ad hbzmet awaltu hl paealt fhutkpx mpa datmhcad, M Tqliquom"txza gkktzphlt hu mcuk dawackzad# `muad kl tfa mwmhcm`ca hlgkpbmthkl gpkb gaccad tpaau mld hlgapaleaugpkb `cmut hbzmetu# tk authbmta tfa zpkzaptx mld emuqmctx hbzmetu kg m uhbhcmp"uh~ad awalt kwap tfa Bmlfmttml@kpkqif kg Lay Xkpo Ehtx, Ghlmccx# tfa hbzchemthklu kg ekbat mld mutapkhd phuo gkp tfa hluqpmlea hldqutpx mpafhifchiftad# hlecqdhli tfa paeqppalea zpk`m`hchtx kg tfaua txzau kg awaltu,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 0

EKBAT MLD MUTAPKHD PHUO 

Yfal ekluhdaphli fky tk }qmlthgx tfa phuou muukehmtad yhtf mutapkhdu kp ekbatu hbzmethli tfa Amptf‘u

mtbkuzfapa mld uqpgmea# tfa pmphtx kg tfaua wapx dautpqethwa awaltu bamlu tfmt tfa tfpamt hu ialapmccxdhuekqltad, Fkyawap# tfa =8:6 Tqliquom mhp`qput pabhldu qu tfmt tfa tfpamt hu pamc, Tk qldaputmld tfhu tfpamt#

ht hu quagqc tk ekluhdap dhggapalt emtaikphau kg phuo# dazaldhli kl tfa uh~a kg tfa mutapkhd kp ekbat mu ht altaputfa mtbkuzfapa mld ekcchdau yhtf tfa Amptf ‘u uqpgmea,

Bmuuhwa &| = ob hl dhmbatap kp cmpiap(  M bmuuhwa k`naet ekcchdhli yhtf tfa Amptf‘u uqpgmea ykqcd fmwa dhpaet hbzmetu kl m eklthlaltmc uemca# mu yacc muick`mc eklua}qaleau yhtf ukehmc# aeklkbhe# mld zkchthemc hbzchemthklu, Tfaua awaltu mpa avtpabacx pmpa# yhtfavmbzcau k`uapwad mt iakckihemc thbauemcau, Gkp avmbzca# m bmuuhwa mutapkhd cad tk tfa dabhua kg dhlkumqpu 71bhcchkl xampu mik, Hbzchemthklu kg bmnkp hbzmetu mpa uk avtpaba tfmt tfa zphlehzcau kg hluqpm`hchtx mpa lkt bat#uqef mu tfa zphehli kg tfa phuo, Mu m pauqct# bmlmihli bmuuhwa mutapkhd mld ekbat hbzmetu mpa gmp `axkld tfauekza kg tfa hluqpmlea uxutab, Fkyawap# ukba ykpo fmu `aal dkla tk hlwauthimta bhthimthkl mld zkchexgpmbaykpou chload tk bmnkp hbzmetu &h,a,# ick`mc dautpqethkl yhtf hlekleahwm`ca kddu( &uaa Qphmu at mc,# =887mld Ukbbap# 0::1(,

Badhqb &| =:u"=::u b hl dhmbatap(   Ml k`naet qz tk =::u kg batapu hl dhmbatap hbzmethli tfa Amptf hu mcuk pmpa hl fqbml fhutkpx, Yhtf tfaaveazthkl kg tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt# tfapa hu lk ecamp awhdalea kg uhbhcmp hbzmetu hl tfa zmut gay ealtqphau,Tfa hbzmet gpkb uqef ml awalt ykqcd `a eklealtpmtad &mggaethli ml mpam =:u tk =::u kg ohckbatapu hl dhmbatap(`qt eklua}qaleau ekqcd pmlia gpkb ckemc tk paihklmc dazaldhli kl yfapa tfa ekcchuhkl keeqpu, Gkp avmbzca# tfa=8:6 Tqliquom awalt cad tk wapx gay emuqmcthau mld lk zpkzaptx ckuuau `aemqua ht keeqppad hl m pabkta paihklkg Uh`aphm, M pazpkdqethkl kg tfhu awalt kwap m fhifcx zkzqcmtad paihkl ekqcd camd tk fqldpadu kg tfkqumldu kg emuqmcthau mld fqldpadu kg `hcchklu dkccmpu kg dmbmia, Ht ykqcd mcuk emqua ckuuau `axkld tfa emzmehtx kg tfahluqpmlea bmpoat, Fkyawap# mu ckli mu m bmnkp ehtx hu lkt hbzmetad# tfa eklua}qaleau ykqcd `a ekbzmpm`ca tktfa hbzmetu kg m bmnkp amptf}qmoa, Hl tfhu emua# hluqpmlea ekbzmlhau ykqcd choacx pabmhl whm`ca# awal tfkqifzpabhqbu yapa lkt ekccaetad lkp pahluqpmlea zqpefmuad mimhlut ml awalt kg tfhu uh~a,

Ubmcc &|=: b hl dhmbatap kp ubmccap( Tfa keeqppalea kg ubmcc k`naetu altaphli tfa Amptf‘u mtbkuzfapa hu gpa}qalt# yhtf hbzmetu kl tfa uqpgmeauawapmc thbau zap xamp, Yfal tfa hlhthmc ekbat kp mutapkhd hu klcx m gay batapu hl dhmbatap# ht hu fhifcxhlgcqalead `x htu nkqplax tfpkqif tfa Amptf‘u mtbkuzfapa, Ht ialapmccx gpmibaltu mckli htu cqbhlauealt zmtf&ekbbklcx tapbad m ‑ufkkthli utmp‗ ( mld hg tfa kphihlmc bmuu hu lkt ekbzcatacx ckut `x m`cmthkl# tfa pabmhlhligpmibaltu fht tfa ipkqld &h,a,# `aekba batakphtau(, Hl bkut emuau# bhlhbmc alapix hu cagt mt hbzmet `qt kl pmpakeemuhklu# tfa hbzmet zpkdqeau m epmtap bamuqphli m gay batapu tk talu kg batapu cmpia, Hl tfhu emua# pauqcthlidmbmia mld hluqpad ckuu dazaldu kl tfa ckemthkl kg tfa epmtap, Gkp avmbzca# hg m ubmcc batakphta yapa tk utphoam ipkqz kg `qhcdhliu# m ubmcc uq`uat kg tfa hluqpmlea hldqutpx ykqcd `a mggaetad `x tfa hbzmet, Tfhu htuacg hu mfhifcx hbzpk`m`ca awalt? tfa efmlea kg m ubmcc batakphta emquhli bmuuhwa dawmutmthkl `x fhtthli ukbatfhli muzktalthmccx dautpqethwa mu m lqecamp zkyap zcmlt hu awal bkpa pabkta,

Paealt Ubmcc Batakphta Hbzmet Awaltu

Tfapa mpa lqbapkqu avmbzcau kg ubmcc batakphta utphoau kwap zkzqcmtad mpamu hl paealt fhutkpx, Hl 0::5# m

batakphta ufkyap keeqppad kwap tfa Efhemik uq`qp` kg Zmpo Gkpaut# Hcchlkhu, Yfhca bmlx utklau gacc# tfax klcxemquad bhlkp dmbmia# hlecqdhli dmbmia tk pkkgu# yhldkyu# mld emp yhldufhacdu, Hl ukba emuau# utklau `pkoatfpkqif eahchliu mld dmbmiad `qhcdhli ekltaltu, M bmz kg tfa hbzmet mpam mld m zhetqpa kg eahchli dmbmia hltfa Zmpo Gkpaut awalt hu ufkyl hl Ghiqpa 0# mckli yhtf zhetqpau kg dmbmia hl tyk ktfap paealt avmbzcau kg batakphta gmccu —tfa 0::9 Emch# Ekckb`hm awalt &Ghiqpa 0&`(( mld tfa 0::6 ^qlfqm# Efhlm awalt &Ghiqpa 0&e((,Tfa cky cawacu kg dmbmia pagcaet tfa ubmcc uh~a kg tfa batakphtau —m gay ohckipmbu mt `aut —mld tfa dhuuhzmthklkg tfahp kp`htmc wackehthau# mu tfax uhbzcx gacc gpkb tfa uox, Mctfkqif tfapa hu lk daghlhthwa paekpd kg fqbmlemuqmcthau dqa tk batakphta utphoau# fqldpadu kg ecmhbu fmwa `aal bmda &Cayhu# =887(, Gkp avmbzca# hl tfa 0: tf 

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 5

ealtqpx# m batakphta hlnqpad m ykbml hl =814 &hl Uxcmemqim# Mcm`mbm( mld mlktfap batakphta ohccad m eky hl=890 &hl Wmcapm# Wala~qacm(,

Ghiqpa 0> Hbzmetu kg ubmcc batakphta awaltu kwap qp`ml mpamu# yhtf bmz ufkyhli tfa 0::5 Zmpo Gkpaut# Hcchlkhu# batakphta ghacd &cagt(# padpmyl gpkb Uhbkl at mc,# 0::4 mld avmbzcau kg pkkg mld eahchli dmbmia emquad `x batakphtau &phift(> &m( 0::5 Zmpo Gkpaut# Hcchlkhu dmbmia &Ukqpea> P,Acchktt(? &`( 0::9 Emch# Ekcqb`hm dmbmia &Ukqpea> B, Gmpbap( mld &e( 0::6 ^qlfqm# Efhlm dmbmia &Ukqpea> B, Gmpbap( 

 Mu zpawhkqucx hldhemtad# ekltpmpx tk tfa bmnkphtx kg k`naetu tfmt ckua tfahp hlhthmc alapix `x gpmibalthli hl tfamtbkuzfapa# kl pmpa keemuhklu# batakphtau oaaz m cmpia gpmethkl kg tfahp ohlathe alapix mld utphoa tfa Amptf#epamthli cmpia epmtapu, Gkp avmbzca# tfa =849 Uhofkta"Mchl# Pquuhm# awalt ymu tfa cmpiaut `kchda &batakphtheghpa`mcc( awap yhtlauuad hl fhutkphemc paekpdu &Ghiqpa 5&m((# hbzmethli ml acchzthe mpam kg mzzpkvhbmtacx = ob0 &:,4 bh0( hl m pabkta paihkl kg Pquuhm, Bkpa tfml =:: epmtapu yapa gkqld hl tfa utpayl ghacd# yhtf tfa cmpiautepmtap bamuqphli 06 b &80 gt( hl dhmbatap mld 7 b &0: gt( daaz &Imccmlt# =887(, Tklu kg batakphthe hpklufpmzlac yapa mcuk gkqld hl tfa mpam, Bkpa paealtcx# hl 0::9# m ghpa`mcc mzzampad hl tfa uox kwap @kchwhm mldZapq mld pabmhlad hltmet yfhca ht tpmwacad tfpkqif tfa mtbkuzfapa# oaazhli m uhilhghemlt zpkzkpthkl kg htu zpa"mtbkuzfaphe uzaad &@pkyl at mc,# 0::6(, Tfa hbzmet emquad tfa gkpbmthkl kg m epmtap =5 b &45 gt( hl dhmbatap#wapx eckua tk tfa ubmcc Zapqwhml whccmia kg Empmlemu &Ghiqpa 5&`((,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 4

Ghiqpa 5> Epmtap"gkpbhli hbzmetu kg ubmcc batakphta awaltu> &m( zmhlthli pazpaualthli tfa =849 Uhofkta"Mchl# Pquuhm awalt `x mpthut Z, N, Badwadaw mld &`( tfa epmtap kg tfa 0::9 Empmlemu# Zapq awalt# bamuqphli =5 b hl dhmbatap &Ukqpea> B, Gmpbap( 

Fmd tfaua tyk awaltu keeqppad hl bkpa zkzqcmtad paihklu# tfax ykqcd fmwa eaptmhlcx emquad uawapa dmbmiamld cad tk bmlx emuqmcthau, Hl tfhu ymx# tfa dmbmia emquad `x epmtap"gkpbhli batakphta utphoau eml `aekbzmpad tk ympthba kp tappkphut `kb`hli mttmeou —`qt yhtf lk tmpiat# utphohli mt pmldkb mepkuu tfa Amptf ‘ uuqpgmea,

Awhdalea kg Badhqb &Tqliquom"txza( Awaltu

Cmpiap k`naetu bamuqphli =:u tk =::u kg batapu hl dhmbatap# uqef mu tfa k`naet tfmt avzckdad hl tfa =8:6

Tqliquom awalt# mpa gmp cauu ekbbkl, Bkpakwap# tfapa hu lk ecamp awhdalea kg uhbhcmp"uh~ad k`naetu avzckdhlikwap tfa Amptf hl paekpdad fqbml fhutkpx, Tfhu dkau lkt baml# fkyawap# tfmt lk uhbhcmp"uh~ad awaltu fmwakeeqppad, Tfa Tqliquom awalt ykqcd choacx fmwa `aal bhuuad kp gkpikttal fmd lk kla ikla tk tfa Uh`aphmlgkpaut tk utqdx tfa zfalkbalkl, Kla ealtqpx mgtap tfa hbzmet# tfa awhdalea fmu `aal bkutcx apmuad `x tfa pa"ipkytf kg waiatmthkl, Bkpakwap# fmd tfa utphoa keeqppad kwap tfa keaml# mu hu tfa emua gkp mzzpkvhbmtacx 9:!kg uqef awaltu ihwal tfa zcmlat‘u cmld"keaml dhutph`qthkl# mlx tpmea kg tfa hbzmet ykqcd klcx `a gkqld kl tfakeaml gckkp, Mu utmtad `x @mhcha &0::9(# tfhu txza kg hbzmet hu m ipamt ‑hlwhuh`ca fm~mpd ,‗  

K`naetu kg uhbhcmp uh~a tk tfa Tqliquom awalt eml epamta m cmpia epmtap qzkl hbzmet hg tfax dk lkt avzckda mldgpmibalt hl tfa mtbkuzfapa, Gkp avmbzca# Batakp Epmtap hl Yhlucky# Mph~klm &Ghiqpa 4( hu ml mzzpkvhbmtacx=#0::"b &5856"gt( dhmbatap epmtap epamtad `x tfa hbzmet kg m 1:"b &=74"gt( dhmbatap hpkl batakphta 48#:::xampu mik, @muad kl tfa pmphtx kg fmwhli m ekubhe `kdx ekbzkuad kg ukchd hpkl# epmtap"gkpbhli awaltu mpaavzaetad tk `a m ckt cauu gpa}qalt tfml mhp`qput awaltu, Hldaad# hpkl batakphtau# yfhef mpa cauu choacx tk avzckda

hl tfa mtbkuzfapa tfml pkeou# pazpaualt klcx 1! kg batakphta gmccu, Tfhu bamlu tfmt tfa bmnkphtx kg Tqliquom"ecmuu awaltu ykqcd camwa lk uemp kl tfa Amptf‘u uqpgmea,

Tfapa hu mcuk m fhif zpk`m`hchtx tfmt ktfap hbzmet epmtapu ykqcd fmwa `aal k`chtapmtad `x apkuhkl &lkta tfmtBatakp Epmtap hu uq`naet tk wapx cky apkuhkl pmtau( kp pabmhlad qlhdalthghad qlthc lky &a,i,# kl tfa keaml gckkp#hl dalua gkpautu# kp embkqgcmiad mu ehpeqcmp cmoau(, Mu gkp paealt epmtapu hdalthghad mu uqef# tfax mpa ialapmccxzkkpcx dmtad mld tfapagkpa dhggheqct tk pacmta tk mlx zmut emtmutpkzfa,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 1

Ghiqpa 4> Avmbzca kg badhqb"uh~ad batakphta hbzmetu> Batakp Epmtap hl Yhlucky# Mph~klm#bamuqphli =#0:: b hl dhmbatap mld keeqpphli 48#::: xampu mik, &Ukqpea> Qlhtad Utmtau Iakckihemc Uqpwax( 

Tfa cmeo kg awhdalea kg Tqliquom"txza hbzmetu hl tfa fhutkphemc kp mpefakckihemc paekpd hu mpiqm`cx pacmtad tktfa gmet tfmt emtmutpkzfau kg qlolkyl kphihl fmwa `aal chload tk ktfap fm~mpdu tfmt mpa bkpa gpa}qalt mld`attap qldaputkkd# uqef mu bmnkp wkcemlhe apqzthklu kp amptf}qmoau, Tfa Fkckeala Hbzmet Ykpohli Ipkqz&FHYI(# gkpbad hl 0::1# ekldqetad m utqdx tk taut tfhu fxzktfauhu, Tfa pauqctu kg tfa utqdx hldhemta tfmthbzmetu bmx fmwa mggaetad tfa bkwabalt kg paealt mipheqctqpmc zkzqcmthklu# ekccmzuad zmut ehwhch~mthklu mldawal emquad tfa Dmpo Miau &uaa pawhay hl @mhccha# 0::9(, Ukba awhdalea eml `a k`tmhlad gpkb tuqlmbh dazkuhtu&@cmoaucaa# 0::7(# tpaa"phli mld hea paekpdu# mutpklkbhemc k`uapwmthklu# mld awal bxtfu=, Kla kg tfa ikmcu kg 

tfa FHYI hu tk dabklutpmta tfmt hbzmetu fmwa `aal bkpa gpa}qalt hl tfa paealt zmut tfml eqppaltcx `achawad,Gkp avmbzca# hbzmetu bmx fmwa cad tk tfa ald kg tfa Eckwhu eqctqpa mt =5#::: @EA# tfa Ipamt Gckkd mtmzzpkvhbmtacx 1::: @EA &Emplax# 0::9(# tfa ‑xampu yhtfkqt uqbbapu‗ mt 151―141 EA# mld tfa Chttca Hea Mia mt=41: EA, &Gkp bkpa hlgkpbmthkl# uaa fttz>++tuql,uuee,pq+fhyi+fhyi,ftb(,

= Gkp bkpa hlgkpbmthkl m`kqt iakbxtfkckix kp tfa pagapalehli kg iakckihemc awaltu hl bxtfkckix# uaa Zheempdh mld Bmuua &0::9(,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 7

BKDACHLI TFA HBZMETU KG M PAZAMT KG TFA =8:6 TQLIQUOM MHP@QPUT

Dmbmia Hlgapalea gpkb Gaccad Tpaau

Hl kpdap tk bkdac tfa aggaetu kg tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt# m dmbmia gkktzphlt tfmt authbmtau tfa iakipmzfheuekza mld bmilhtqda kg hbzmetu bqut `a dawackzad, Tfa efmccalia hl dkhli uk# fkyawap# hu tfa cmeo kg dmtmgpkb yfhef dmbmia hlgapaleau eml `a bmda, Yfmt pamccx fmzzalad kl Nqla 5:# =8:6# hl tfa bhddca kg tfaUh`aphml gkpaut uthcc pabmhlu m bxutapx# zmptheqcmpcx `aemqua lk gpmibalt kg tfa ekubhe `kdx fmu awap `aalgkqld, Gqptfap# lk hbzmet epmtap fmu `aal hdalthghad# mctfkqif tfhu cmut zkhlt fmu paealtcx `aal efmccaliad hltfa chtapmtqpa &Imuzaphlh at mc,# 0::9(, Ht hu klcx gpkb uzmpua axayhtlauu meekqltu mld tfa dmtm kl gkpautdawmutmthkl tfmt tfa gkktzphlt kg tfhu dhumutap eml `a authbmtad, Ghiqpa 1 ufkyu tyk zpkzkuad gkktzphltu gkp tfa=8:6 awalt `muad kl m utqdx kg gaccad tpaau, Tfa gkktzphlt hl Ghiqpa 1&m( &Cklik at mc,# 0::1( zpkwhdau tfa bkutmeeqpmta ekltkqp kg tfa `cmut tk dmta, Tfa gkktzphlt hl Ghiqpa 1&`( &Uappm at mc,# =884( kggapu mddhthklmchlgkpbmthkl `x dhuthliqhufhli paihklu yfapa gmccal tpaau yapa zmpthmccx `qplad &dmpo ipax( gpkb paihklu yfapatfax yapa klcx zqufad dkyl &chift ipmx(, Hl `ktf hccqutpmthklu# gmccal tpaau gkpb m pmdhmc zmttapl# yfhefhldhemtau tfa ukqpea kg tfa `cmut &ufkyl mu m pad dkt hl Ghiqpa 1&m( mld m `cmeo dkt hl Ghiqpa 1&`((,

Ghiqpa 1> Dmbmia gkktzphlt kg tfa =8:6 Tqliquom mhp`qput datapbhlad gpkb tfa utqdx kg gaccad tpaau> &m( bmz kg tfa `cmut hbzmet gpkb Cklik at mc, &0::1(# yfapa tfa m~hbqtfu kg gaccad tpaau eklwapia tk tfa gkemc zkhlt kg tfa `cmut &pad dkt(, Tfa ekckp pmlia gpkb yfhta tk dmpo `cqa hldhemtau ml hlepamua hl m~hbqtf bamuqpau‘ pachm`hchtx & Ukqpea>  fttz>++yyy" 

tf,`k,hlgl,ht+tqliquom+  ( ? &`( dmbmia gkktzphlt gpkb Uappm at mc, &=884(# hldhemthli tfa chbht kg kwaptfpkyl tpaau &ukchd chla( mld tfa chbht kg efmppad tpaau &dmufad chla(, Tfa `cmeo dkt hldhemtau tfa gkemc zkhlt kg tfa `cmut,

Gpkb tfaua tpaa gkktzphltu# tyk txzau kg dmbmia mpa k`uapwad, Ghput# tpaau yapa cawacad kwap ml mpam ekwaphlimzzpkvhbmtacx 0#::: ob0 &99: bh0( &Ghiqpa 1&m(( mld cmpia ghpau yapa hilhtad lamp ipkqld ~apk &Ghiqpa 1&`((, Mctfkqif tfaua gaccad tpaau ihwa ml hldhemthkl m`kqt tfa uh~a# tfa dhpaethwhtx# mld tfa hltaluhtx kg tfa Tqliquom`cmut# eklwapthli tfhu hlgkpbmthkl hltk m dmbmia gkktzphlt gkp mlmcxuhu zqpzkuau hu lkt m utpmhiftgkpympd bmttap,Tfapa hu lk mwmhcm`ca hlgkpbmthkl m`kqt dmbmia mttalqmthkl gpkb tfa ukqpea tk tfa chbht kg tfa gkktzphlt# mutpaau fmwa pacmthwacx `phttca wqclapm`hchthau mld mpa ahtfap utmldhli kp gmccal, Tfa wqclapm`hchtx kg zpkzaptx mld

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 9

zakzca tk m Tqliquom"choa `cmut# mu ekbzmpad tk tpaau# bqut `a datapbhlad, Ekltpmpx tk ktfap fm~mpdu# uqef muamptf}qmoau mld fqpphemlau# tfapa mpa lk fhutkphemc awaltu dkeqbalthli tfa dmbmia tk zpkzaptx mld zakzcatfmt eml dhpaetcx datapbhla wqclapm`hchtx, Ekbzmphuklu tk ktfap zaphcu bqut `a bmda,

Ekbzmphukl tk @cmut Dmbmia

Kla ukcqthkl hu tk qthch~a abzhphemc awhdalea kg `cmut aggaetu gpkb bml"bmda avzckuhklu, Gkp avmbzca# Ghiqpa 7ufkyu ml avmbzca kg m dmbmia gkktzphlt gkp m 0"tkl TLT a}qhwmcalt avzckuhkl, Tfa dmbmia mttalqmthklzmttapl# bkdacad gpkb alihlaaphli `cmut mlmcxuhu# hu ekluhutalt yhtf tfa dmbmia uaal hl tfa tpqeo `kb` mttmeo kl tfa @phthuf Ekluqcmta hl Hutml`qc hl 0::5# yhtf ml authbmtad xhacd a}qhwmcalt tk 0 tklu kg TLT &PBU# 0::6(,Hl tfhu avmbzca# tktmc dautpqethkl &h,a,# =::! BDP kp baml dmbmia pmthk( ymu k`uapwad yhtfhl =1 b &1: gt( kg tfa tpqeo `kb`,

Ghiqpa 7> Dmbmia gkktzphlt gkp m 0"tkl TLT a}qhwmcalt avzckuhkl# hccqutpmthli baml dmbmia pmthk &BDP( mu gqlethkl kg dhutmlea tk ukqpea &h,a,# mttalqmthkl( &Ukqpea> PBU# 0::6( 

Fkyawap# tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt pacamuad tfa alapix a}qhwmcalt kg =: baimtklu &Btkl( kg TLT, Tfapagkpa#dmbmia zmttaplu uaal hl lqecamp taut avzckuhklu mpa bkpa uqhtm`ca gkp mlmcxuhu zqpzkuau, Hldaad# tfa =8:6pmdhmc zmttapl gkpbad `x cawacad tpaau ymu pazchemtad dqphli mtbkuzfaphe lqecamp tautu hl tfa =81:u mld =87:u,Quhli kwapzpauuqpa# hl zkqldu zap u}qmpa hlef &zuh(# mu m bamuqpa kg tfa uawaphtx kg tfa `cmut mld tfqu tfadmbmia# m gkktzphlt ymu dawackzad gkp m Tqliquom"txza awalt, Ghiqpa 9 pazpaualtu tfa gkktzphlt kg ml mhp`qputkeeqpphli mt ml mcthtqda kg 1 ob &5 bh( yhtf m pacamuad alapix kg =: Btkl, Kwapzpauuqpa hl zuh zap dhutmleapmlia# ufkyl qz tk 4: ob &01 bh( hl pmdhqu# hu datapbhlad `x quhli tfa gkpbqcma mld ipmzfu gpkb Icmuutklamld Dkcml &=899(, Tfa =8:6 Tqliquom gkktzphlt# ufkyl hl Ghiqpa 1&`(# hu kwapcmhd kl tfhu `cmut gkktzphlt gkpekbzmphukl &hl dmufad+dkttad ekltkqp chlau( yhtf htu ‑`qttapgcx‗ ufmza dqa tk tfa ekubhe `kdx‘u tpmnaetkpx

mlica, Mctfkqif tfa =8:6 awalt gkktzphlt gkpbu m `qttapgcx zmttapl# tfa ialaphe gkktzphlt hu muuqbad tk `aehpeqcmp &h,a,# qlolkyl batakp tpmnaetkpx(,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 6

Ghiqpa 9> Gkktzphlt kg m bml"bmda mhp`qput mld kg tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt, Kwapzpauuqpa hl zuh hu hldhemtad zap dhutmlea pmlia gpkb ukqpea &ukchd ekltkqp( mld ekbzqtad gkp m =:"Btkl mhp`qput keeqpphli mt m 1 ob mcthtqda, Tfa avtalt kg gmccal tpaau &dmufad ekltkqp( mld efmppad tpaau &dkttad ekltkqp( gpkb tfa Tqliquom awalt &Uappm at mc,# =884( mpa hldhemtad gkp ekbzmphukl, Tfa Tqliquom gkktzphlt hu ealtapad uqef tfmt tfa gkequ zkhlt gpkb yfhef tfa gmccal tpaau pmdhmta &h,a,#ipkqld ~apk( hu ckemtad mt tfa ukqpea kg tfa bml"bmda `cmut,

Tfa zktalthmc zpkzaptx dmbmia emquad `x m ihwal kwapzpauuqpa hu bamuqpad hl tapbu kg m baml dmbmia pmthk&BDP( mld ml BDP zap dhutmlea pmlia gpkb tfa ukqpea kg tfa avzckuhkl hu dawackzad# uhbhcmp tk Ghiqpa 7 &h,a,#mzzpkmefau quad hl tappkphub bkdachli(, Tm`ca = daueph`au tfa avzaetad zpkzaptx dmbmia dqa tk m =:"BtklTLT a}qhwmcalt avzckuhkl gkp wmphkqu cawacu kg kwapzpauuqpa, Tfaua pauqctu mpa k`tmhlad gpkb lqecamp tautu#tmohli klcx hltk meekqlt `cmut aggaetu# mu klcx mzzpkvhbmtacx 1:! kg tktmc alapix pacamuad gpkb m lqecamp

yamzkl hu dqa tk tfa `cmut, Hl tfhu emua# tktmc dautpqethkl hu avzaetad gkp ml kwapzpauuqpa ipamtap tfml 0: zuh,Yfal tfa gkktzphlt hl Ghiqpa 9# hl ekb`hlmthkl yhtf tfa dmbmia hlgkpbmthkl hl Tm`ca =# hu uqzaphbzkuad kwapml mpam yhtf `qhct avzkuqpa# tfa ckuuau eml `a emceqcmtad `x bqcthzcxhli tfa baml dmbmia pmthk `x tfa wmcqa mtphuo,

Tm`ca =, Avzaetad baml dmbmia pmthk kg `qhcdhli txzau mu m gqlethkl kg kwapzpauuqpa &hl zuh( &Ukqpea> Kgghea kg Taeflkckix Muuauubalt# =898( 

Kwapzpauuqpa&zuh(

Dmbmia DauephzthklBaml Dmbmia

Pmthk &!(

0:/ Pahlgkpead eklepata utpqetqpau

cawacad+dautpkxad

|=::

1/ Gmetkphau# ekbbapehmc `qhcdhliumld pauhdalthmc utpqetqpauuawapacx dmbmiad kp dautpkxad

|9:

=/ Pauhdalthmc utpqetqpau bkdapmtacx

kp uawapacx dmbmiad|5:

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, 8

Gmtmchtx mld hlnqpx pmtau mpa mcuk daghlad gpkb tfa Kgghea kg Taeflkckix Muuauubalt &=898(# gkp tfa umba wmcqaukg kwapzpauuqpa &Tm`ca 0(, Lkta tfmt tfa avtalt kg dmbmia ymu 1: ob &5= bh( mymx gpkb tfa ukqpea kg tfaTqliquom mhp`qput mld ktfap gmp ghacd aggaetu gpkb tfa `cmut yapa paekpdad hl axayhtlauu pazkptu, Gkp avmbzca#gpkb ml axayhtlauu mt tfa Wmlmwmpm tpmdhli zkut# ckemtad 71 ob &4: b( gpkb tfa avzckuhkl>  ‑‧mt tfmt bkbaltH `aemba uk fkt tfmt H ekqcdl‘t `amp ht# mu hg bx ufhpt ymu kl ghpa‧‗ &Oqcho# =85:(,

Tm`ca 0, Avzaetad gmtmchthau mld hlnqphau &hl zapealtmia(# mu m gqlethkl kg kwapzpauuqpa &hl zuh( &Ukqpea> Kgghea kg Taeflkckix Muuauubalt# =898( 

Kwapzpauuqpa

&zuh(Gmtmchthau &!( Hlnqphau &!(

0:/ |86 |0

1/ |1: |4:

=/ |0 |51

Uealmphk> M Tqliquom"txza Awalt kwap Lay Xkpo Ehtx

Ekluhdaphli tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt# kla bhift muo yfmt tfa ckuuau ykqcd fmwa `aal hg# hlutamd kg keeqpphlikwap tfa Uh`aphml gkpaut# tfa mhp`qput fmd keeqppad kwap kla kg tfa bkut hbzkptmlt aeklkbhe fq`u mld bkutzkzqcmtad ehthau hl tfa ykpcd, Tfa gkcckyhli uealmphk ekluhdapu tfa keeqppalea kg ml awalt yhtf ml hbzmetgkktzphlt uhbhcmp tk tfa kla kg tfa =8:6 awalt kwap Lay Xkpo Ehtx, Tk muuauu zpk`m`ca bmvhbqb ckuu# tfagkktzphlt hu ealtapad kwap tfa `kpkqif kg Bmlfmttml# mu hccqutpmtad kl Ghiqpa 6, Tfa baml dmbmia pmthk# gmtmchtxpmta# mld hlnqpx pmta mpa muuqbad tk `a 9:!# 1:!# mld 4:! hl tfa hllap ekltkqp kg tfa gkktzphlt mld 5:!#0!# mld 51! hl tfa kqtap ekltkqp kg tfa gkktzphlt# pauzaethwacx, Tfaua wmcqau mpa datapbhlad gpkb Ghiqpa 9#yfapa tfa bmnkphtx kg tfa hllap gkktzphlt hu ckemtad hl tfa 1/ zuh pmlia mld tfa bmnkphtx kg tfa kqtap gkktzphlt huyhtfhl tfa =/ zuh pmlia, Hl mddhthkl# ht hu mzzpkzphmta tfmt tfa zmpt kg tfa hllap gkktzphlt yfhef avtaldu hltk tfa=/ zuh pmlia# ekppauzkldu tk fhifap dmbmia pmthku# mu tfa hilhthkl mld uzpamd kg ghpau yhcc hlepamua ckuuau, Ht hu

ykptf lkthli# fkyawap# tfmt tfa uzpamd kg ghpau hu muuqbad eklutmlt kwap tfa mpam tk oaaz tfa uealmphk uhbzca,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, =:

Ghiqpa 6> Ml avtpaba awalt uealmphk> pazpkdqethkl kg tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt kwapcmhd &hl xaccky( kwap Bmlfmttml# uqef tfmt ckuuau mpa bmvhbh~ad 

Avzaetad zpkzaptx dmbmia mld emuqmcthau

Ghiqpa 8&m( ufkyu tfa pauhdalthmc mld ekbbapehmc zpkzaptx mt phuo hl tfa Lay Xkpo paihkl gpkb tfhu uealmphk#dawackzad gpkb tfa 0::6 PBU¬ Q,U, Hldqutpx Avzkuqpa Dmtm`mua &HAD(, Tfa Q,U, HAD hu m ekbzhcmthkl kg hluqpad muuatu &`qhcdhliu mld ekltaltu( gkp zpkzapthau mt phuo gpkb yhld mld ghpa zaphcu, Aeklkbhe wmcqau mpadaphwad gpkb tfa hluqpad wmcqau# ekluhdaphli hluqpmlea zalatpmthkl pmtau tfpkqifkqt tfa Q,U, Quhli hluqpad

avzkuqpa tk tfa zaphcu kg yhld mld ghpa hu mzzpkzphmta hl tfhu emua# uhlea tfa fm~mpd hu dqa tk fqpphemla"gkpeayhldu &a,i,# bmvhbqb yhld uzaad kg 1:0 bzf# =75 bzf# mld 9: bzf gkp ml kwapzpauuqpa kg 0: zuh# 1 zuh# mld0 zuh# pauzaethwacx( &Icmuutkla mld Dkcml# =899( mld tk ghpa hilhthklu dqa tk tfapbmc avzkuqpa, Tktmc aeklkbheavzkuqpa bamuqpau $97: `hcchkl `atyaal tfa kqtap mld hllap ekltkqpu kg tfa gkktzphlt mld $=,56 tphcchkl hluhdatfa hllap ekltkqp, Mu m pauqct# zpkzaptx ckuuau mpa authbmtad mt mzzpkvhbmtacx $=,=8 tphcchkl,

Ghiqpa 8&`( ufkyu tfa ckemthkl kg tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt gkktzphlt hl tfa zpkzkuad uealmphk# kwap tfazkzqcmthkl mt phuo# abzckxhli tfa 0::1 Qlhtad Utmtau CmldUemlTB dmtmuat gkp zkzqcmthkl eklealtpmthklu&CmldUemlTB# 0::1(# yfhef ihwau ealuqu ekqltu kl m 5:º `x 5:º cmthtqda+cklihtqda iphd, Yhtf m zkzqcmthklavzkuqpa kg 5,7= bhcchkl zakzca `atyaal tfa hllap mld kqtap ekltkqpu mld 7,01 bhcchkl zakzca hluhda tfa hllapekltkqp# mzzpkvhbmtacx 5,0 bhcchkl gmtmchthau mld 5,97 bhcchkl hlnqphau mpa avzaetad,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, ==

&m( &`(

Ghiqpa 8> Tfa =8:6 Tqliquom gkktzphlt ealtapad kwap Bmlfmttml yhtf &m( aeklkbhe avzkuqpa &`qhcdhli mld ekltaltu(# ufkyhli $0,=4 tphcchkl hluhda tfa kqtap ekltkqp kg tfa gkktzphlt mld $=,56 tphcchkl hluhda tfa hllap ekltkqp &Ukqpea> PBU# 0::6`(? &`( zkzqcmthkl avzkuqpa kg 8,67 bhcchkl zakzca hluhda tfa kqtap ekltkqp kg tfa gkktzphlt mld 7,01 bhcchkl hluhda tfa hllap ekltkqp &Ukqpea> CmldUeml# 0::1( 

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, =0

HLUQPMLEA HBZCHEMTHKLU

Paeqppalea zpk`m`hchtx kg Tqliquom"txza awaltu

 M paealt utqdx kl tfa paeqppalea kg k`naetu tfmt ekcchda yhtf tfa Amptf# `muad kl m ekbzhcmthkl kg bmlx dmtm

uatu# authbmtau m baml patqpl zaphkd kg =#::: xampu &pmlia gpkb 4:: tk =#6:: xampu( gkp ekcchuhklu yhtf k`naetuuhbhcmp hl uh~a tk tfa =8:6 Tqliquom awalt &@pkyl at mc,# 0::0(, Tfhu pmta kg =#::: xampu ymu zpawhkqucxauthbmtad tk `a mpkqld 0:: ―5:: xampu &Ufkabmoap# =865(, Uhlea tfa gpa}qalex emllkt `a muuauuad gpkbfhutkphemc awaltu# @pkyl at mc, &0::0( avtpmzkcmtad ht gpkb tfa pmta kg `kchda datklmthklu k`tmhlad gpkb ahiftxampu kg umtacchta paekpdu# mu yacc mu gpkb m wmphatx kg mutpklkbhemc k`uapwmthklu &a,i,# tfa Uzmeaymtef zpknaetmt fttz>++uzmeaymtef,czc,mph~klm,adq+(, Lkta tfmt hg ukba kg tfa qlolkyl awaltu tfmt cad tk bmnkp emtmutpkzfau&a,i,# tfa Dmpo Miau( yapa zpkwal tk `a mutapkhd kp ekbat hbzmetu# pmta authbmtau ykqcd laad tk `a pawhuadqzympdu# `x qz tk ml kpdap kg bmilhtqda,

Ghiqpa =: ufkyu tfa bkut qz"tk"dmta gpa}qalex"bmilhtqda pacmthklufhz gkp hbzmetu kg ubmcc tk badhqb uh~ak`naetu &3=:: b hl dhmbatap(, Gpkb tfhu pacmthklufhz# @pkyl at mc, &0::0( datapbhlad tfa Tqliquom"txza awaltpatqpl zaphkd kg =#::: xampu, Tfa pacmthklufhz zpkzkuad `x Ufkabmoap &=865( hu mcuk ufkyl gkp ekbzmphukl&dmufad chla hl Ghiqpa =:(, Gkcckyhli tfa pauqctu gpkb @pkyl at mc, &0::0(# `kchdau kg mzzpkvhbmtacx =: b &55 gt(hl dhmbatap keeqp awapx daemda mld `kchdau kg kla batap hl dhmbatap keeqp pkqifcx tal thbau zap xamp,

 Mctfkqif ubmcc awaltu mpa gpa}qalt# tfax ialapmccx zkua lk tfpamt, Klcx m gpmethkl kg tfaua awaltu ykqcd fmwaalkqif fhif alapix cagt mt hbzmet &a,i,# tfa =849 Uhofkta"Mchl# Pquuhm awalt kp tfa 0::9 Empmlemu# Zapq awalt(tk emqua ckemch~ad dmbmia kwap m zkzqcmtad paihkl,

Ghiqpa =:> Gpa}qalex ― ̀ kchda alapix &kp a}qhwmcalt dhmbatap( pacmthklufhzu zpkzkuad `x @pkyl at mc, &0::0( &`kcd chla( mld `x Ufkabmoap &=865( &dmufad chla( gkp ubmcc lamp"Amptf k`naetu &3=:: b( ekcchdhli yhtf tfa Amptf, Tqliquom"txza awaltu &|=: Btkl TLT a}qhwmcalt( mpa lkymdmxu authbmtad tk keeqp mpkqld klea awapx =#::: xampu &4:: ― =#6:: xampu( &@pkyl at mc,# 0::0(# ckyap tfml tfa 0:: ― 5:: xampu patqpl zaphkd zpkzkuad zpawhkqucx &Ufkabmoap# =865(,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, =5

Hluqpm`hchtx kg Tqliquom"txza awaltu

Hl kpdap tk muuauu tfa hbzmetu kg m Tqliquom"txza awalt kl hluqpad avzkuqpa mt phuo# m zpk`m`hchuthe phuo bkdac`muad kl pamchuthe dmtm bqut `a dawackzad, Mu dhuequuad hl datmhc `x Okwmeu mld Fmccmo &0::9(# ml muuauubaltkg tfa ekutu kg mutapkhd mld ekbat hbzmetu pa}qhpau bmlx muuqbzthklu mld tfa dawackzbalt kg mlx zpkzkuadzpk`m`hchuthe phuo bkdac hu dhggheqct# ihwal tfa cmeo kg fhutkphemc awaltu, 0 Yfhca tfa meeqpmex kg m phuo muuauubaltbkdac hu hbzkptmlt# uk hu tfa hbzkptmlea kg qldaputmldhli tfa bmlmiabalt kg tfa phuo, Kl tfa hluqpmlea uhda#ekbzpafaluhwa bqcth"zaphc kp mcc"phuo hluqpmlea zkchehau ekwap mcc phuou tfmt mpa lkt uzaehghemccx avecqdad# bamlhlitfmt m Tqliquom"txza awalt hu ialapmccx ekwapad `x tfhu txza kg hluqpmlea, Ht hu qlecamp hg# kl mlx eqppaltekltpmetqmc ipkqldu# hluqpapu ykqcd avecqda dmbmia emquad `x uqef m zaphc, Yfhca tfa bkdaut zpabhqbumzzpkzphmta tk `a efmpiad gkp tfa phuo ykqcd `a qlhgkpb mepkuu cmld mpamu &mctfkqif m tuqlmbh zpabhqb bmxmcuk laad tk `a mddad gkp ekmutchlau( ht uaabu qlchoacx tfmt hluqpapu ykqcd `ktfap tk mdd tfhu efmpia avzchehtcxtk tfahp zphehli bkdacu,

 Mt tfa umba thba# ml hluqpap ufkqcd `a mympa &uhbhcmp tk bmlmihli amptf}qmoa phuo(# awal mt tfa avtpabacx ckyzpk`m`hchthau datapbhlad fapa# tfmt fmwhli m zkptgkchk eklealtpmtad hl uhlica ehtx epamtau m ipamtap zpk`m`hchtx kg pqhl gkp ml hbzmet tfml m yacc"dhutph`qtad zkptgkchk, Ckuu utmthutheu gkp lmtqpmc dhumutapu dabklutpmta m dpmbmthehlepamua hl ckuuau uhlea =81:, Tfhu hlepamua hu dphwal `x m eklealtpmthkl kg zkzqcmthkl mld zpkzaptx hl qp`mlmpamu# tfa dawackzbalt kg fhifcx avzkuad ekmutmc mld wmccax paihklu# mld tfa ekbzcavhtx kg bkdapl ukehathaumld taeflkckihau &Ubkcom# 0::7(, Tfhu ufkyu tfmt tfa phuo muukehmtad yhtf avtpaba mutapkhd mld ekbat awaltu

eml klcx hlepamua tfpkqif thba mld tfmt bkpa pauampef tk qldaputmld tfaua avtpabacx pmpa awaltu ufkqcd `aalekqpmiad,

0 Gkp ml avmbzca kg m zpk`m`hchuthe phuo bkdac gkp Tqliquom"txza mhp`qputu# uaa Bhilml at mc,# 0::8,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/comet-and-asteroid-risk-an-analysis-of-the-1908-tunguska-event 15/17

 

¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, =4

PAGAPALEAU  

@mhccha# B, &0::9(, Tfa emua gkp uhilhghemlt lqb`apu kg avtpmtappautphmc hbzmetu tfpkqif tfa cmta Fkckeala, Nkqplmc kg ]qmtaplmpx Uehalea# 00&0(# =:="=:8,

@cmoaucaa# U, &0::7# Lkwab`ap =4(, Mlehalt epmuf# azhe ymwa, Lay Xkpo Thbau # Uehalea Uaethkl,

@pkyl# Z, at mc, &0::6(, Mlmcxuhu kg m epmtap gkpbhli batakphta hbzmet hl Zapq, Nkqplmc kg Iakzfxuhemc Pauampef Zcmlatu #==5# A:8::9# dkh>=:,=:08+0::6NA::5=:1,

@pkyl# Z, at mc, &0::0(, Tfa gcqv kg ubmcc lamp"Amptf k`naetu ekcchdhli yhtf tfa Amptf, Lmtqpa# 40:# 084"087,

Emplax# U, &0::9(, Dhd m Ekbat Emqua tfa Ipamt Gckkd; Tfa qlhwapumc fqbml bxtf bmx `a tfa ghput avmbzca kg dhumutappazkpthli, Dhuekwap Bmim~hla # Lkwab`ap 0::9,

Imccmlt# P, &=887(, Uhofkta"Mchl Pawhuhtad, Batakphta Bmim~hla # Ga`pqmpx =887,

Imuzaphlh# C, at mc, &0::9(, M zkuuh`ca hbzmet epmtap gkp tfa =8:6 Tqliquom Awalt, Tappm Lkwm # =8# 041"01=,

Icmuutkla# U, mld Z, N, Dkcml &=899(, Tfa aggaetu kg lqecamp yamzklu , Ymufhlitkl# D,E,> Q,U, Ikwaplbalt Zphlthli

Kgghea,

Okwmeu# Z, mld Fmccmo# M, &0::9(, Hluqpmlea Ekwapmia kg Batakphta# Mutapkhd mld Ekbat Hbzmetu  ― Huuqau mld Kzthklu,Hl Z,T @k`pkyuox mld F, Pheobml &Adu,( Ekbat+Mutapkhd Hbzmetu mld Fqbml Ukehatx> Ml Hltapdhuehzchlmpx Mzzpkmef &zz, 478"496(, Lay Xkpo> Uzphliap"Wapcmi,

CmldUemlTB &0::1(, CmldUeml TB  Ick`mc Zkzqcmthkl Dmtm`mua , Kmo Phdia# TL> Kmo Phdia Lmthklmc Cm`kpmtkpx, Mwmhcm`camt fttz>++yyy,kplc,ikw+cmldueml,

Cayhu# N, U, &=887(, Pmhl kg Hpkl mld Hea>  Tfa Wapx Pamc Tfpamt kg Ekbat mld Mutapkhd @kb`mpdbalt , Pamdhli# Bmuu,> Mddhukl"Yaucax,

Cklik# I, &0::9(, Tfa Tqliquom awalt, Hl Z,T, @k`pkyuox mld F, Pheobml &Adu,( Ekbat+Mutapkhd Hbzmetu mld Fqbml Ukehatx> Ml Hltapdhuehzchlmpx Mzzpkmef &zz, 5:5"55:(, Lay Xkpo> Uzphliap"Wapcmi,

Cklik# I, at mc, &0::1(, M lay qlhghad emtmckiqa mld m lay bmz kg tfa =8:6 tpaa gmcc hl tfa uhta kg tfaTqliquom Ekubhe @kdx avzckuhkl, Hl B, Ubacpkp# F, Dxzwho# mld G, Tuhomcmu &Adu,(  Mutapkhd"ekbat Fm~mpd 0::1 &zz, 000"001(, Ut, Zatapu`qpi> Hluthtqta kg Mzzchad Mutpklkbx kg tfa Pquuhml Memdabx kg Uehaleau ,

Bhilml# M,# Ipkuuh# Z, mld Bqhp"Ykkd# P, &0::8(, Phuo Muuauubalt kg Tqliquom"txza Mhp`qputu, Lmtqpmc Fm~mpdu  &uq`bhttad(,

Kgghea kg Taeflkckix Muuauubalt &=898(, Tfa Aggaetu kg Lqecamp Ymp , Ymufhlitkl# D,E,> Q,U, IkwaplbaltZphlthli Kgghea,

Zheempdh# C, mld Bmuua# Y, @, &0::9(, Bxtf mld Iakckix, Iakckihemc Ukehatx kg Ckldkl Uzaehmc Zq`chemthkl 095 #Ckldkl> Iakckihemc Ukehatx,

PBU &Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu(# &0::6(, Tappkphub Phuo> 9"Xamp Patpkuzaethwa# 9"Xamp Gqtqpa Zapuzaethwa ,fttz>++yyy,pub,ekb+Zq`chemthklu

PBU &Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu(# &0::6`(, PBU¬ Q,U, Hldqutpx Avzkuqpa Dmtm`mua mld Hldqutpx Ckuu EqpwauQuap Dkeqbaltmthkl 0::6# Ketk`ap 0::6,

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu# Hle, =1

Uappm# P, at mc, &=884(, Avzaphbaltmc fhltu kl tfa gpmibaltmthkl kg tfa Tqliquom ekubhe `kdx, Zcmlat, ' Uzmea Ueh,# 40# 999"965,

Ufkabmoap# A,B, &=865(, Mutapkhd mld Ekbat @kb`mpdbalt kl tfa Amptf,  Mll, Paw, Amptf Zcmlat, Ueh, # ==# 47="484,

Uhbkl# U, @, at mc, &0::4(, Tfa gmcc# paekwapx# mld ecmuuhghemthkl kg tfa Zmpo Gkpaut batakphta, Batakphtheu ' Zcmlatmpx Uehalea # 58# 701"754,

Ubkcom# M, &0::7(, Lmtqpmc dhumutapu mld tfa efmccalia kg avtpaba awaltu> phuo bmlmiabalt gpkb ml hluqpmleazapuzaethwa, Zfhc, Tpmlu, P, Uke ,# 574# 0=49"0=71,

Ukbbap# I, U, &0::1(, Mutpklkbhemc kddu ― M zkchex gpmbaykpo gkp tfa ekubhe hbzmet fm~mpd # Patphawad gpkb PMLD mtfttz>++yyy,pmld,kpi+zq`u+piu[dhuuaptmthklu+PIUD=64+

Qphmu# N, B, at mc, &=887(, Zcmlatmpx Dagalua> Emtmutpkzfhe famctf hluqpmlea gkp Zcmlat Amptf >   M Pauampef Zmzap zpaualtad tk Mhp Gkpea 0:01 , Patphawad gpkb fttz>++eumt,mq,mg,bhc+0:01+wkcqba5+wkc5ef=7,zdg 

8/3/2019 Comet and Asteroid Risk: An Analysis of the 1908 Tunguska Event

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¨ 0::8 Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu Hle =7

 MEOLKYCADIABALTU

 Mqtfkp> Mplmqd Bhilml

Ekltph`qtkpu> Zmtphehm Ipkuuh mld Pk`apt Bqhp"Ykkd

Adhtkp> Ufaccx Apheoual

 M`kqt PBU 

Phuo Bmlmiabalt Ukcqthklu hu tfa ykpcd‘u camdhli zpkwhdap kg zpkdqetu mld uapwheau gkp emtmutpkzfa phuo 

bmlmiabalt, Bkpa tfml 4:: camdhli hluqpapu# pahluqpapu# tpmdhli ekbzmlhau# mld ktfap ghlmlehmc hluthtqthklupacx kl PBU bkdacu tk }qmlthgx# bmlmia# mld tpmlugap phuo, Gkqldad mt Utmlgkpd Qlhwapuhtx hl =866# PBU uapwauechaltu tkdmx gpkb kggheau hl tfa Q,U,# @apbqdm# tfa Q,O,# Gpmlea# Uyht~apcmld# Hldhm# Efhlm# mld Nmzml, Gkpbkpa hlgkpbmthkl# whuht kqp ya`uhta mt yyy,pbu,ekb