Columbus OH Industrial Trends Q3 2011

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PROPERTY TYPE VACANCY RATES OVER COMPLETIONS 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 (2,000,000) (1,500,000) (1,000,000) (500,000) 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 Completions Absorptions Total Market Vacancy Rate INDUSTRIAL TRENDS REPORT GREATER COLUMBUS REGION www.colliers.com/columbus Construct and Expand INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW The third quarter continued the positive growth from second quarter with more than 1.8 million square feet of positive absorption. Concerns of a double dip recession and continued economic malaise persist however as the national, state and local unemployment rates edge upward. The signs in the market are good however. With 1.8 million square feet in completed construction and 1.8 million square feet of absorption, the Columbus region industrial real estate market seems to be at the front end of an expansionary phase. A number of leases this quarter were expansions into larger space by tenants who were previously in the market. Continued on page 2... FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS There were a few significant institutional sales (sales with property occupancy of 100 percent). Pensyn Investment purchased the 1,272,227 square foot facility at 2890 W. Fair Avenue in Lancaster for an undisclosed amount. Cole Real Estate Investments purchased the 479,000-square-foot 400 Case Avenue in Newark for $11.9 million from Carey Realty Investments. Mars Petcare completed its 1.3 million-square- foot facility in Madison county. Accel completed its 500,000-square-foot facility in New Albany (see page 4 for more New Albany construction news). Pizzuti is underway with a build-to-suit for MBM in Groveport of approximately 125,000 square feet. Tenants are optimistic about growing consumer demand, but cautious in expanding their lease for long terms (5+ years). Companies are still leary of another slowdown. RENTAL RATES Asking rental rates in- creased slightly from last quarter. Supply has de- crease over the past two quarters by 1.6 percent points, from 13.2 to 11.6 percent. Depending on the profile of the vacancy left in market we may see prices edge even further upward. MARKET INDICATORS RENTAL RATES Rates for the Major Product Types Q3 2011* Q4 2011** VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATES *Actual change from previous quarter **Projected change from previous quarter 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 $2.20 $2.15 $2.10 $2.05 $2.00 $1.95 $1.90 $1.85 $1.80 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q10 4Q10 Q3 2011 | INDUSTRIAL $2 $4 $6 $8 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Rental Rate General Industrial R&D/Flex Warehouse/Dist.

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Transcript of Columbus OH Industrial Trends Q3 2011

Page 1: Columbus OH Industrial Trends Q3 2011

PROPERTY TYPE VACANCY RATES OVER COMPLETIONS

1 5 10 15 20 25 30

(2,000,000)

(1,500,000)

(1,000,000)

(500,000)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

Completions Absorptions Total Market Vacancy Rate

INDUSTRIAL TRENDS REPORTGREATER COLUMBUS REGION

www.colliers.com/columbus

Construct and ExpandINDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEWThe third quarter continued the positive growth from second quarter with more than 1.8 million square feet of positive absorption. Concerns of a double dip recession and continued economic malaise persist however as the national, state and local unemployment rates edge upward. The signs in the market are good however. With 1.8 million square feet in completed construction and 1.8 million square feet of absorption, the Columbus region industrial real estate market seems to be at the front end of an expansionary phase. A number of leases this quarter were expansions into larger space by tenants who were previously in the market. Continued on page 2...

FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS• There were a few significant institutional sales

(sales with property occupancy of 100 percent). Pensyn Investment purchased the 1,272,227 square foot facility at 2890 W. Fair Avenue in Lancaster for an undisclosed amount. Cole Real Estate Investments purchased the 479,000-square-foot 400 Case Avenue in Newark for $11.9 million from Carey Realty Investments.

• Mars Petcare completed its 1.3 million-square-foot facility in Madison county. Accel completed

its 500,000-square-foot facility in New Albany (see page 4 for more New Albany construction news). Pizzuti is underway with a build-to-suit for MBM in Groveport of approximately 125,000 square feet.

• Tenants are optimistic about growing consumer demand, but cautious in expanding their lease for long terms (5+ years). Companies are still leary of another slowdown.

RENTAL RATES

Asking rental rates in-creased slightly from last quarter. Supply has de-crease over the past two quarters by 1.6 percent points, from 13.2 to 11.6 percent. Depending on the profile of the vacancy left in market we may see prices edge even further upward.

MARKET INDICATORS

RENTAL RATESRates for the Major Product Types

Q3

2011*

Q4

2011**

VACANCY

NET ABSORPTION

CONSTRUCTION

RENTAL RATES — — *Actual change from previous quarter

**Projected change from previous quarter

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

$2.20

$2.15

$2.10

$2.05

$2.00

$1.95

$1.90

$1.85

$1.803Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q10 4Q10

Q3 2011 | INDUSTRIAL

$2

$4

$6

$8

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

Q211

Q311

Rental R

ate

General Industrial R&D/Flex Warehouse/Dist.

Page 2: Columbus OH Industrial Trends Q3 2011

REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICSThe Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports at least once a quarter in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book about the economic activity of the fourth district, which includes the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Beige Book from September 2011 reported that industrial activity in the fourth district remained stable on the whole. Freight transportation executives reported that shipping volume had continued on a slightly upward trend. Some respondents reported successfully increasing shipping rates. Capital outlays have accelerated during 2011 compared to other years due to a need to replace aging equipment.

Manufacturers reported that production was stable but they indicated that there have been declines in orders and in backlogs. Expectations called for additional slowing in demand which they attributed to uncertainty and caution. Manufacturers remain committed to capital spending plans for 2011. Capacity utilization stabilized or declined slightly. Hiring continued at a modest pace but managers are having a difficult time finding high-skilled workers.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Manufacturing employment of 62,600 employees in July was an increase of 5,000 over June

while year over year manufacturing is down by 1.3 percent. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities employment fell by 300 employees from June and with an increase 1.9 percent year over year. Mining, logging, and Construction decreased by 500 from June and is up 8.6 percent year over year.

ASKING RATESAverage asking rental rates increased slightly from second quarter. R&D/Flex space increased by $.11, General industrial by $.04, and Warehouse/Distribution by $.14. The bottoming of prices has likely occurred and we expect that for the next few quarters we will see slight improvement on lease rates even if the economy dips as real estate prices are a lagging indicator.

MARKET INTELMarket Activity Volume is the sum of the absolute value of each absorption change in the market and it tells us a little more about what exactly happened to the market behind the absorption number. The Market Activity Volume was 5,783,960 square feet which is the largest amount of change in one quarter since before Q1 2009. Net positive absorption in the market, 1.8 million square feet, explains only 28 percent of the changes that occurred this quarter.

The Columbus industrial market consists of 10 suburban submarkets and the Central Business District. The total inventory for the region is 212 million square feet of space

MARKET ACTIVITY

SALES ACTIVITY

PROPERTY ADDRESS SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET

2890 W Fair Avenue August - 1,272,227 AIC Ventures Pensyn Investments - Ware./Dist. Fairfield

400 Case Avenue July $11,900,000.00 479,000 Carey Realty Investments Cole Real Estate Investments $24.84 Ware./Dist. Licking

6100 Opus Drive August 12 $13,739,280.00 676,155 RT Rickenbacker III LLC Exeter 6250 Opus LLC $20.32 Ware./Dist. Southeast

6360 Port Road August 15 $8,900,000.00 434,120 RT Rickenbacker II LLC Exeter 6360 Port LLC $20.50 Ware./Dist. Southeast

2919-2999 Lewis Center

Way

August 16 $12,362,000.00 377,880 ProLogis North American

Properties Fund I, LLC

CLPF-Capital Park 4 LP $32.70 Ware./Dist. Southwest

2700 international

Street

September 16 $3,067,500 152,800 RPH Industrial, LLC Tarrier holdings $20.04 Ware./Dist. West

3811 Twin Creeks Drive September 9 $1,300,000.00 45,000 Bank of America Meritex Twin Creeks LLC $28.89 Flex/R&D West

763 Hague Avenue July 11 $850,000.00 42,017 CREPD LLC Flo Realty Ohio LLC $20.23 Flex/R&D West

222 Stover Drive August 18 $1,150,000.00 34,925 Advantage Bank American Howa Kentucky Inc $32.93 Flex/R&D Delaware

Union County

Delaware County

Licking County

North

East

CBD

West

Southwest Southeast

Fairfield County

Pickaway County

Madison County

LEASE ACTIVITY

PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF LESSOR LESSEE ASKING PRICE (NNN) TYPE SUBMARKET

3301 Toy Road 292,956 Opus Real Estate Union Supply Co $3.25 Bulk Warehouse Southeast

4555 Creekside Parkway 250,846 Pizzuti Genco $3.25 Ware./Dist. Southeast

2160 McGaw Road 135,000 Columbus 2, LLC Midwest Express, Inc. $1.50 Ware./Dist. Southeast

2400 Spiegel Drive 127,996 TRT-DCT Rickenbacker IV Allrite Logistics $1.00 Ware./Dist. Southeast

3319 Southwest Boulevard 70,800 Kansas City Life Insurance Co. Safety Today Inc $3.25 Bulk Warehouse Southwest

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Page 3: Columbus OH Industrial Trends Q3 2011

CONSTRUCTION

McGraw-HillConstructionreportedthatconstructionstartsforcommercial,industrial,hotelandinstitutionalprojectsslipped46percentintheeight-countyregionforJulytolessthan$69.5million,from$127.9millioninJuly2010.VerylittlespeculativeconstructionhasoccurredinthemarketinthelasttwoyearsexceptforarecentprojectPizzutiisworkingoninNewAlbany.ItseemsthatthemarketreactedquicklytothebadeconomicnewsfromAprilthroughJune2011.Theslowdownofeconomicgrowthwillkeepspeculativeprojectsatbayforsometimebutitwiillikelynotdeterwell-funded,build-to-suitprojects.

UPDATE Market Comparisons

INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates

SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions WH/Dist R&D/FlexCBD 5,907,062 716,317 12.1% 97,767 362,358 - - - $4.75

EAST 20,682,243 4,240,670 20.5% (527,826) (465,336) 878,000 500,000 $3.30 $5.50

FAIRFIELD 6,771,842 444,127 6.6% 600 78,600 - - $4.00 $6.90

LICKING 18,727,930 1,362,016 7.3% - 337,874 - - $2.66 -

MADISON 8,148,397 - 0.0% - - - 1,300,000 - -

NORTH 16,747,580 1,623,462 9.7% (124,130) (106,088) - - $3.91 $4.92

NORTH DELAWARE 9,132,849 1,051,634 11.5% (191,668) (169,383) - - $3.00 $6.75

PICKAWAY 3,550,850 71,900 2.0% - - - - $2.48 -

SOUTHEAST 64,181,757 9,316,121 14.5% 1,696,473 1,792,455 125,000 - $2.67 $3.24

SOUTHWEST 17,683,127 1,442,880 8.2% 243,762 70,905 - - $2.79 $3.03

UNION 6,333,817 518,565 8.2% (11,964) 7,232 - - - $5.60

WEST 35,935,786 3,902,168 10.9% 644,976 1,644,189 - - $2.23 $4.59

TOTALS 213,803,240 24,689,860 11.5% 1,827,990 3,552,806 1,003,000 1,800,000 $2.70 $4.34

Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates

SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions By Product TypeR&D/FLEX 20,210,125 3,116,036 15.4% 107,851 371,516 - - $4.28

GENERAL INDUSTRIAL 71,945,581 6,131,857 8.5% (447,299) 135,456 428,000 500,000 $3.24

WAREHOUSE/

DISTRIBUTION

121,647,534 15,441,967 12.7% 2,167,438 3,045,834 575,000 1,300,000 $2.70

TOTALS 213,803,240 24,689,860 11.5% 1,827,990 3,552,806 1,003,000 - $2.96

QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS

Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates

QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions ($)Q2, 2011 211,998,240 26,074,727 12.3 2,103,147 1,640,784 1,992,000 - $2.80

Q1, 2011 211,923,599 27,972,230 13.2 (468,993) (468,993) 1,992,000 - $2.72

Q4, 2010 205,420,829 26,113,915 12.71 743,685 (766,901) 1,575,000 (536,292) $2.57

Q3, 2010 205,957,121 27,183,626 13.20 313,420 (1,381,820) 170,000 - $2.93

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Page 4: Columbus OH Industrial Trends Q3 2011

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTThe Central Business District (CBD) has now recorded a full of year positive absorption since third quarter 2010 by adding 97,767 square feet. This brings the vacancy rate down to 12.1 percent. Leasing was driven by various leases at the Techsouth facility.

EASTThe submarkets comprising eastern Columbus are East and Licking County. Construction has wrapped up for the 500,000-square-foot Accel facility at 9000 Smith’s Mill Road, New Albany.

New Albany’s industrial construction is prolific: Vee Pak’s construction on a 105,000 square foot building continues and is expected to finish in fourth quarter 2011. KDC, Quebec Ontario-based, is expected to complete its 240,000-square-foot in spring 2012 and it will house 200 employees. Axium Plastics, Mississauga Canada-based, will complete a 110,000-square-foot facility in spring 2012 employing 165. Pizzuti has begun a speculative 303,000-square-foot building planned for spring 2012 with tenants Alene Candles and Jeye’s already signed on. Sonoco is contructing a 120,000-square-foot facility and is expected to be completion in 2012.

Net absorption in the East was negative largely due to Acatel-Lucent’s departure from 6200 Broad Street, leaving more than 400,000 square feet available.

Licking county vacancy remained unchanged. 10 of the 11 properties with vacancies in Licking have vacancies of 50,000 square feet. These contiguous spaces bode well for strong leasing

NORTHThe submarkets comprising the northern Columbus are North and North Delaware. Both submarkets lost a moderate amount of occupancy 124,130 and 191,668 respectively.

SOUTHEASTThe Southeast submarket absorbed more than 1.8 million square feet with net absorption of more than 1.6 million square feet. Genco leased more than 250,000 square feet at 4555 Creekside Plaza; Midwest Express leased 135,000 square feet at 2160 Mcgaw Road; All

Right Logistics leased 127,996 square feet at 2400 Spiegel Drive; SB Capital expanded into 96,053 more square feet of 4458 Alum Creek Drive. Typifying the expansionary nature of the third quarter, Union Supply Co. has signed a lease for 292,956 square feet at 3301 Toy Road in Groveport. The company is moving its warehousing operation from 6300 Commerce Drive, where it leased 127,720 square feet.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there are signs of a continuation of third quarter’s strong leasing. Exel Logistics received a tax credit to expand into a second operation at 2120 Creekside Parkway where they will employ 275 all told.

Pizzuti has begun construction on a 150,000-square-foot facility for MBM in Groveport at 2240 Creekside Parkway.

SOUTHThe southern submarkets are Pickaway and Fairfield counties. Both markets saw very little movement this quarter and maintained their very low vacancy rates.

SOUTHWESTThe Southwest submarket added to last quarters negative absorption of 117,548 square feet with roughly 60,000 square feet more of negative absorption. The largest vacancy was Valley Towing at 2200 Southwest Boulevard.

WESTThe submarkets on the west side of Franklin county are West, Madison, and Union. The West was the strongest performing sector with more than 600,000 square feet of net absorption. Leading leases were signed by Virginia Beverage Distribution for 155,720 at 3600 Sullivant Road and by Tarrier Foods which purchased the 152,800-square-foot 2700 International Street. Union and Madison counties had negligible and no change respectively. In Madison, the construction of Mars Petcare’s 1.3 million square foot facility has been completed.

CSX formally announced what has been speculated, the firm will expand its intermodal distribution center in the west. The expansion of $59 million will continue to bolster central Ohio’s strong logistics position.

Leslie HobbsMarketing and Research Manager8800 Lyra DriveSuite #150Columbus, Ohio, 43240TEL +1 614 410 5640

Jonathan BadgleyResearch Analyst175 South Third StreetSuite # 285Columbus, Ohio 43201TEL +1 614 437 4495

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