COLUMBIA - Colliers Multifamily Advisory Group · Dec-17 Woodcreek Farms 751 Jacobs Millpond Rd...
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Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report COLUMBIA Q4 2017 | Multifamily RECENT SALES Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $873 $890 $900 $892 $888 $850 $874 $889 $904 $929 $952 $969 Per Sq. Ft $0.89 $0.90 $0.91 $0.91 $0.90 $0.86 $0.89 $0.90 $0.92 $0.94 $0.97 $0.98 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.7% 1.8% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% -0.9% Occupancy Rate 92.6% 93.6% 93.9% 93.1% 92.9% 93.2% 93.8% 93.3% 94.2% 94.9% 94.4% 93.9% Occupancy Change - Annually -1.3% -0.8% 0.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% -0.6% 1.0% 0.7% -0.5% -0.6% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.6% 1.1% 0.3% -0.9% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-10.03 $-5.75 $-3.77 $-5.43 $-6.48 $-4.82 $-6.94 As a % of Asking Rent -1.2% -0.7% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.6% -0.8% Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Dec-17 Quail Hollow 2700 Feather Run Trl Lexington 215 1973 10,775,000 50,116 Dec-17 West Winds 105 Hillpine Rd Columbia 100 1981 8,000,000 80,000 Dec-17 Spring Valley 127 Sparkleberry Ln Columbia 152 1992 10,750,000 70,724 Dec-17 Woodcreek Farms 751 Jacobs Millpond Rd Columbia 176 2005 14,850,000 84,375 Dec-17 Serenity at Three Rivers 100 Riverbend Dr Lexington 415 1971 19,300,000 46,506 Nov-17 Elmtree-Georgetown Square 1780 Elmtree Rd Columbia 78 1969 3,432,000 44,000 Nov-17 Lake Shore Village 7645 Garners Ferry Rd Columbia 280 1974 11,450,000 40,893 Oct-17 Charbonneau Apartments 167 Stoneridge Dr Columbia 150 1985 9,200,000 61,333
Transcript of COLUMBIA - Colliers Multifamily Advisory Group · Dec-17 Woodcreek Farms 751 Jacobs Millpond Rd...
Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
COLUMBIAQ4 2017 | Multifamily
RECENT SALES
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Effective Rent Per Unit $873 $890 $900 $892 $888 $850 $874 $889 $904 $929 $952 $969
Per Sq. Ft $0.89 $0.90 $0.91 $0.91 $0.90 $0.86 $0.89 $0.90 $0.92 $0.94 $0.97 $0.98
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.7% 1.8% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% -0.9%
Occupancy Rate 92.6% 93.6% 93.9% 93.1% 92.9% 93.2% 93.8% 93.3% 94.2% 94.9% 94.4% 93.9%
Occupancy Change - Annually -1.3% -0.8% 0.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% -0.6% 1.0% 0.7% -0.5% -0.6%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.6% 1.1% 0.3% -0.9%
Economic Concessions Concession Value $-10.03 $-5.75 $-3.77 $-5.43 $-6.48 $-4.82 $-6.94
As a % of Asking Rent -1.2% -0.7% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.6% -0.8%
Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Dec-17 Quail Hollow 2700 Feather Run Trl Lexington 215 1973 10,775,000 50,116
Dec-17 West Winds 105 Hillpine Rd Columbia 100 1981 8,000,000 80,000
Dec-17 Spring Valley 127 Sparkleberry Ln Columbia 152 1992 10,750,000 70,724
Dec-17 Woodcreek Farms 751 Jacobs Millpond Rd Columbia 176 2005 14,850,000 84,375
Dec-17 Serenity at Three Rivers 100 Riverbend Dr Lexington 415 1971 19,300,000 46,506
Nov-17 Elmtree-Georgetown Square 1780 Elmtree Rd Columbia 78 1969 3,432,000 44,000
Nov-17 Lake Shore Village 7645 Garners Ferry Rd Columbia 280 1974 11,450,000 40,893
Oct-17 Charbonneau Apartments 167 Stoneridge Dr Columbia 150 1985 9,200,000 61,333
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 4Q17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Total Units Absorbed 412 776 818 642 367,785 313 1,122 625 242 259
New Supply 415 444 1,060 422 365,158 422 544 397 576 711
Inventory Growth 0.9% 0.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.4%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual November-17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Employment (000s) 374.9 385.8 393.2 400.4 148,507.0 397.0 401.0 405.6 409.5 412.8
Job Gain (000s) 10.7 10.9 7.4 2.5 2,114.0 3.8 4.1 4.5 3.9 3.3
Job Growth (%) 2.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8%
Total Residential Permitting 4,022 4,683 4,625 4,487 1,155,517 4,762 4,968 5,609 4,817 4,429
Relative Change 10.6% 16.4% -1.2% 5.2% 6.3% 3.0% 4.3% 12.9% -14.1% -8.1%
Single Family Units Permitted 3,255 3,719 3,914 3,900 756,569
Relative Change 2.5% 14.3% 5.2% 9.0% 10.2%
Multifamily Units Permitted 760 898 711 579 366,148
Relative Change 64.5% 18.2% -20.8% -15.5% -1.3%
Multifamily as a % of Total 18.9% 19.2% 15.4% 12.9% 31.7%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.4 3.4 2.0 0.7 3.1
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 23.2 14.4 8.2 3.6 5.7
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Columbia, SC Metro Area was 0.6% in November 2017, reflecting 2,500 jobs added during a 12-month period.
Axiometrics forecasts Columbia, SC Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.0% in 2018, with 4,093 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.0% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 3,912 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 622 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, down -89 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 4,836 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, an increase of 211 units from the prior year’s total.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of January 15, 2018, Axiometrics has identified 234 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 1,060 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,343 per unit, or $1.42 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,301, or $1.37 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-41.81. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $897 per unit ($0.91 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $892 per unit, or $0.91 per square foot, in 4Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-5.43.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Northeast 66 206 34 306 36 3 $1,400 $1.43 $1,364 $1.39
South 185 332 200 717 68 8 $1,253 $1.46 $1,237 $1.44
Other 299 522 821 146 12 $1,313 $1.30 $1,263 $1.26
Columbia, SC 550 1,060 234 1,844 250 5 $1,351 $1.41 $1,311 $1.37
*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market Units1 The Edge Proposed Clayco Inc 1401 Assembly St The Congaree Vista MF 2402 Merrill Gardens at BullStreet Proposed Pillar Properties 2100 Bull St Downtown Columbia MF 1963 Cardinal Newman Development Proposed The Beach Company 4701 Forest Dr Northeast Arcadia Lakes M 2564 Kline City Center Proposed Jerome Kline 1221 Huger St The Congaree Vista MF 3065 The Brickworks Proposed Easlan Capital, Inc. Knox Abbott Dr West Central MF 1866 Thirteen 21 Proposed Capitol Places 1321 Lady St Downtown Columbia MF 1307 The Stadium at USC Proposed 1115 & 1087 Shop Rd Llc 1087 Shop Rd Outer East Central MF 1328 Brookland Under Construction Estates & Companies 275 Meeting St West Central MF 2359 National Guard Apartments Under Construction Howard T. Scott 1 National Guard Rd Outer East Central MF 19810 Sola Station Under Construction The Beach Company 383 Taylor St The Congaree Vista MF 33911 The Empire Under Construction Park7 Group 1011 Assembly St The Congaree Vista MF 320
Total Units 2,538
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
3
4
2
8
1
5
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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
LEGACY AT SANDHILL | Columbia, SC
CHALLENGE: Significant prepayment penalty on the existing loan so buyer had to assume and put an additional supplemental loan on top. Capital Markets shifted and effected the supplemental loan proceeds after being under contract.
STRATEGY & RESULTS: The East Region team was the exclusive sales agent for Mesa Capital Partners. Our goal was to minimize exposure to the seller and generate the highest net number possible for them. We provided the clients with property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations, and due diligence up until closing. This is the second time in three years this team has sold this property, resulting in the highest price per unit trade in Columbia year to date.
CLIENT: Mesa Capital Partners UNITS: 240
OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings
Greenhill Parish CrossingColumbia, SCUnits: 240
Villas at Spears CreekColumbia, SCUnits: 240
Legacy at SandhillColumbia, SCUnits: 240
Springtree ApartmentsColumbia, SCUnits: 152
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
39,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.8B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
24COVERING OVER
STATES
Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 574 1061
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:
Max KemetherASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2337
AT YOUR SERVICE
Ryan GriffithASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2336
