Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Looking to Colorado’s Future Alexandra Hall, Director...

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Looking to Colorado’s Future

Alexandra Hall, DirectorLabor Market Information

What we’ll cover today:

Basic Industry/Occupation Concepts

Current Economic Climate

Forecasting Process

Hot Industries

Hot Occupations

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1939

1940

1941

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1949

1950

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1952

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1987

1988

1989

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1991

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1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

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2004

2005

Colorado Employment and Recessions 1939 - 2005

"A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months."

Industry

Individual companies conducting similar business

Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing

Industry

Individual companies conducting similar business

Tourism Hi-Tech Bio-Tech

Occupation

Work in which people engage to earn a living

Accountant Secretary Flight Attendant Surgeon Software Engineer Network Analyst

Occupation

Work in which people engage to earn a living

Customer Service Representative Administrative Assistant

What is Labor Market Information?

Industry Employment & Wages

Occupation Employment & Wages

Demand for Workers

– Current Demand

– Future Demand

Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado through 2014

Employment Outlook to 2014Projections Process

Labor force– Economic growth– Industry employment– Occupational employment

Population growth rates

1.41.7

1.31.0 0.9 1.0 0.9

1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

through2014

Annual rates of change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau

projected

National

The civilian labor force will grow by 1.0 percent annually through 2014.

1.1

1.7

2.6

1.6

1.1 1.21.0

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 1994-04 through2014

Annual rates of change

projected

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National

Labor force participation rate by gender


Percent, 1952-2004 and projected 2014

86.4

71.8

33.9

59.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

1952 1962 1972 1984 1994 2004 2014

Total

Men

Women

projected

National

Labor force participation of men andwomen age 55 and older, 1948-2004

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Men

Women

Percent


National

21.2

10.913.6

11.5 10.99.1

1984-1994 1994-2004 2004-2014

Women Men

Women’s labor forcegrowth outpaces men’s

Percent change


projected

National

Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up

44 46 46 48

56 54 54 53

1984 1994 2004 2014 1984 1994 2004 2014

Women Men


Percent of labor force

projectedprojected

National

Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites

33.7 32.4

16.8

7.310

Hispanic Asian Black White Total

Percent change, through 2014


National

Workers by Race

69.064.3

13.115.911.312.0

4.3 5.12.3 2.7

White, non-Hispanic

Hispanic Black Asian All other

2004 2014


Percent of labor force

National

Colorado

4,335,4634,735,025

5,627,740

2,391,239 2,526,8123,163,231

2000 2005 2014, Projected 2000 2005 2014, Projected

Population Labor Force

24%

19% 20%

25%

1995-2004 2005-2014 1995-2004 2005-2014

Population Labor Force

Colorado

Percent Change Percent Change

Employment Outlook: through 2014Projections Process

Labor forceEconomic growth

– Industry employment– Occupational employment

A healthy economy isprojected through 2014

3.1

5.0

2.7


Selected economic variables, Percents

GDP(annual growthrate, projectedthrough 2014)

Unemploymentrate, 2014(assumed)

Productivity(annual growthrate, projectedthrough 2014)

National

The 2014 projections assume a 3.1 percent real GDP growth rate

4.04.4

3.23.0

3.43.2 3.1

1949-1959

1959-1969

1969-1979

1979-1989

1989-2000

1994-2004

2004-2014

Average annual rate of change

projected

National

Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions

0.5

2.7

0.1

-1.2

-0.1-1.0

4.4

60Q2-61Q1

69Q4-70Q4

73Q4-75Q1

80Q1-80Q3

81Q3-82Q4

90Q3-91Q1

01Q1-01Q4

Average annual rate of change, percents

National

5.5

3.5

5.85.3

4.0

5.0

1959 1969 1979 1989 2000 2014,projected

The 2014 projections assume a5.0 percent unemployment rate

National

Labor forceEconomic growthIndustry employment

– Occupational employment

Employment Outlook: Through 2014Projections Process

Total employment is projected to increase by 13% or 18.9 million. Nonfarm wage and salary

employment is projected to increase by 18.7 million or 14%.

Millions of jobs

145.6164.5

132.2

150.9

2004 2014, 2004 2014,projected projected

Total employment Nonfarm

wage and salary

employment


National

Total employment is projected to increase byor 664,360 (28.6%). Nonfarm wage and salary

employment is projected to increase by 663,320.

2,419,241

2,997,500

2,225,500

2,792,500

2005 2014, Projected 2005 2014, Projected

Total employmentNonfarm wage and salary

employment

Millions of jobs

Colorado

Service-providing industriescontinue to lead employment growth

22.7 21.8 21.7

92.2

110.3

129.1

1994 2004 2014 1994 2004 2014

Goods-producing

Service-providing

projected projected


Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

National

224323

430

619

686706

841947

971

1,125

1,292

1,403

1,9482,477

4,155

Mining

Utilities

Other services

Transportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitality

Federal government

Construction

Information

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Education and health services

State and local government

Professional and business services

Financial activities

Manufacturing

Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted

for nearly half of total output in 2004

Billions of dollars

Service ProvidingGoods Producing


National

523570

2,7283,138

4,2505,6556,210

6,9658,052

12,47914,330

15,03516,41316,953

18,890

Mining

Utilities

Federal government

Information


Wholesale trade

Other services

Construction



Manufacturing

Retail trade



State and local government (ex. educ. and hosp.)

Education and health services and professional and business services, along with

state and local government, accounted for nearly 40 percent of employment in 2004

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

Service ProvidingGoods Producing


National

43

364

476

506

734

792

849

1,649

2,128

2,214

4,566

5,193

Federal Government

Information

Wholesale trade


Other services

Construction


Retail trade

State and local government




Education and health services and professional and business services account for half of

projected total employment growth

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, through 2014

Service Providing

Goods Producing


National

Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries through 2014 are technical, three

are health related.

38

39

41

45

46

47

48

60

68

69Home health care services

Software publishers

Management, scientific, and technical consulting services

Residential care facilities

Facilities support services

Employment services

Independent artists, writers, and performers

Office administrative services

Computer systems design & related services

Outpatient, laboratory, & ambulatory care


Percent change

National

47.5%

48.5%

50.9%

51.5%

51.9%

54.1%

55.2%

56.8%

63.5%

81.4%Support Activities for Mining

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Warehousing and Storage

Administrative and Support Services

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

Transit and Ground Passenger Transport

Specialty Trade Contractors

Support Activities for Transportation

Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets

Electronics and Appliance Stores

Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing industries through 2014, 2 are transportation related and

2 are construction related.

Colorado

503

537

600

688

783

792

1,224

1,451

1,580

1,649

Colleges, universities, and professional schools

Home health care services

Residential care facilities

Hospitals, private

Local government educational services

Construction

Office of health practitioners

Food services and drinking places

Employment services

Retail trade


Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected through 2014

Service Providing

Goods Producing

National

10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected through 2014

12,510

13,610

22,410

23,870

31,660

52,830

53,630

64,410

68,39091,930

Construction of Buildings

Credit Intermediation & Related Activities

Hospitals, Private

Local Government, Exc. Edu. & Hospitals

Ambulatory Health Care Services

Specialty Trade Contractors

Food Services & Drinking Places

Educational Services

Administrative & Support Services

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services

Colorado

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth

Detailed industries with:– employment growth greater than 13%

– and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3%.

These industries accounted for:– 17% of employment in 2004– and are projected to account for 38% of

employment growth through 2014

National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth

If you include industries with:– faster than average employment growth – and average annual output growth of at least 2%

per year:

These industries accounted for:– 25% of employment in 2004– and are projected to account for 46% of

employment growth through 2014

National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater

than 3% per yearManufacturing

– Transportation equipment mfg (95,300)*– Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (76,000)– Motor vehicle parts mfg (43,200)– Aerospace product and parts mfg (36,400)– Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control

instruments mfg (18,300)– Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and

bolt mfg (13,800)– Motor vehicle body and trailer mfg (13,000)– Medical equipment and supplies mfg (7,900)– Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied mfg

(7,500)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, through 2014

National


than 3% per year

Wholesale Trade/Retail Trade– Wholesale Trade (475,900)*– Retail Trade (1,648,700)

Transportation and warehousing– Warehousing and storage (138,100)– Truck Transportation (129,200)– Transit and ground passenger transportation (90,400)– Air Transportation (45,200)

National


Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 3% per year

Information– Publishing industries (205,000)*– Software publishers (161,000)– Internet and other information services (129,600)

Financial activities– Monetary authorities, credit intermediation (151,300)– Securities, commodity contracts (121,200)

National



than 3% per year

Professional, scientific and technical services – Administrative and support management and remediation

services (2,461,800)*– Administrative and support services (2,374,100)– Employment services (1,579,900)– Management, scientific consulting (471,200)– Computer systems design (452,900)– Accounting and tax preparation (283,900)– Investigation and security services (169,600)– Other professional, scientific, and technical services

(142,700)

National



than 3% per yearEducation and health services

– Ambulatory health care services (2,085,100)*– Offices of health practitioners (1,223,700)– Nursing care and residential mental health

facilities (782,000)– Hospitals, private (688,300)– Home health care services (537,100)– Colleges and universities (503,000)– Outpatient and laboratory services (324,300)

National



than 3% per year

Leisure and hospitality– Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries

(358,400)*– Accommodation (304,200)– Performing arts, spectator sports, and related

industries (78,400)– Spectator sports (30,200)– Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions

(22,900)

National


Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and/or output growth greater than 3% per year

Other services– Religious, grant making and giving services,

and social advocacy organizations (381,300) *– Religious organizations (202,500)– Personal and laundry services (200,600)

Automotive repair and maintenance (176,800)– Personal care services (109,200)– Grantmaking and giving services (55,700)

State and local government– Local government passenger transit (52,200)

National


8,870

9,030

10,250

12,190

13,200

14,800

16,430

18,200

19,570

30,720

63,340

64,060

64,410

68,590

75,690

76,170

91,930

5,880Mining

Arts, Entertain, & Recreation

Mgt of Companies & Enterprises

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Real Estate, Rental & Leasing

Information

Manufacturing

Transport. & Warehousing

Finance and Insurance

Government

Accomm. & Food Services

Retail Trade

Educational Services

Admin., Supp., Waste, & Rem.

Construction

Health Care & Social Assist.

Prof., Sci., & Tech. Services

Colorado Employment Growth through 2014

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.2% per year

Colorado

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (91,930)*

Health Care & Social Assistance (76,170) –Ambulatory health care services (31,660)–Hospitals (22,410)–Nursing and residential care facilities (11,270)–Social assistance (10,830)


Colorado

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (8,870)*– Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (770)

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.2% per year

Transportation & Warehousing (18,200)–Warehousing and storage (4,250)–Support activities for transportation (3,790) –Transit and ground passenger transport (2,190)–Scenic and sightseeing transportation (150)


Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services (68,590)*

Educational Services (64,410) Accommodation and Food Services (63,340)

– Food services and drinking places (53,630)– Accommodation (9,710)

ColoradoDetailed industries with faster than average

employment growth greater than 2.2% per year


Mining (5,880)* – Support activities for mining (4,190)

Construction (75,690)– Specialty trade contractors (52,830)– Construction of buildings (12,510) – Heavy and civil engineering construction (10,350)

ColoradoDetailed industries with faster than average

employment growth greater than 2.2% per year


Labor forceEconomic growthIndustry employmentOccupational employment

Employment Outlook: through 2014Projections Process

There are 22 major occupation groups

Of these, 12 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, they:

– Accounted for 35% of employment in 2004

– And are projected to account for 55% of employment change through 2014

National

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (13%)

14151616

1617

19

20

21

21

2631

33

Protective service

Arts, entertainment, sports, media

Legal Occupations

Food preparation

Life, physical, and social science

Building and grounds cleaning

Business and financial operations

Education, training, and library

Community and social services

Personal Care

Healthcare practitioners

Computer and Mathematical

Healthcare support

Percent change, projected through 2014


National

Major occupational groups projected to grow slower than average (13%)

-1.3

-0.7

5.8

9.6

11.1

11.3

11.4

12

12.5

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Production

Office and administrative support

Sales and related occupations

Transportation and material moving

Management occupations

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Architecture and engineering

Percent change, projected through 2014


National

11 major occupations are projected to have a net employment increase of more than

14 million


Thousands of jobs, projected through 2014

967

991

1,032

1,116

1,122

1,163

1,380

1,476

1,714

1,740

1,756

Computer and mathematical

Personal care

Management occupations


Business and financial operations

Healthcare support


Sales and related occupations

Food preparation and serving

Education, training, and library

Healthcare practitioners

Percent change projected to be greater than average (13%)

Percent change projected to be less than average

National

Seven of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, three are

computer relatedPercent change, projected through 2014

41

42.7

43

43.3

44.2

48.4

49.6

52.1

54.6

Home health aides

Network systems and data communications analysts

Physician assistants

Computer software engineers, applications

Physical therapist assistants

Dental hygienists

Computer software engineers, systems software

Dental assistants

Personal and home care aides

59

Medical assistants


National

Top ten occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to

grow faster than average, by earnings2004 average annual earnings

$65,590

$67,260

$69,140

$70,430

$70,720

$71,070

$75,380

$79,540

$84,310

$95,470General and operations managers

Computer software engineers, systems software

Biomedical engineers

Physician assistants

Environmental engineers

Computer systems analysts

Medical scientists

Hydrologists

Database administrators

Computer software engineers, applications


National

Top occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow

faster than average, by earnings2004 average annual earnings

$26,710

$39,490

$39,800

$41,580

$43,510

$47,390

$55,430

$56,880

$60,620Dental Hygienists

Registered Nurses

Forensic science technicians

Paralegals and legal assistants

Cardiovascular technologists

Occupational therapist assistants

Physical therapist assistants

Veterinary technologists

Diagnostic medical sonographers


National

$26,160

$29,680

$29,970

$32,650

$35,460

$37,240

$37,810

$38,720$55,940

Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific

Carpenters

Hazardous materials removal workers

Truck drivers, heavy & tractor-trailer

Maintenance and repair workers

Dental assistants

Customer service representatives

Medical assistants

Executive secretaries and admin. assts.

Top occupations generally requiring either long-term or moderate-term on-the-job training that are

projected to grow faster than average, by earnings2004 average annual earnings


National

Computer and mathematical occupations will continue to grow at the

highest rate

36.6%

34.7%

33.6%

33.4%

32.6%

32.6%

31.3%

30.0%

29.4%

38.8%

40.2%

40.3%

53.0%Computer & Mathematical

Construction & Extraction

Healthcare Support

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Education, Training, & Library

Architecture & Engineering

Building and Grounds Cleaning & Main.

Legal

Business & Financial Operations

Community & Social Services

Life, Physical, & Social Science

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Colorado

Job openings from replacement needs exceed those from employment growth for

three occupational groups

.82.7

3.5 3.1

5.9

6.2 3.0

7.4 4.6

17.6 8.7

13.6 13.5

14.3 17.5

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Production



Construction and extraction

Management, business, and financial

Professional and related

Service

Sales and related

New Jobs

Replacements

Thousands of jobs, projected through 2014

31.8

27.1

26.3

12.0

9.2

7.5

3.5

6.6

.4

Colorado

Colorado’s highest expected job losses through 2014

-910

-890

-850

-530

-470

-270

-250

-230

-200

-140

-130

-120

-100 Extruding/drawing machine setters

Office machine operators

Machine feeders & offbearers

Parking lot attendants

Cutting & press machine setters

Photographic machine operators

Information & record clerks

Meter readers, Utilities

Credit authorizers & clerks

Computer operators

Mail clerks, not postal service

File Clerks

Order Clerks

Colorado

Expect an increase in the proportion of jobs requiring Bachelor's degrees or higher

68%

9%

22%

67%

9%

23%

2004 2014

983 thousand jobs

708 thousand jobs

1,992 thousand jobs1,581 thousand

jobs

Colorado

206,980

112,240

49,850

41,820

30,340

36,700

119,390

31,930

11,880

6,740

7,810 First professional degree

Doctoral degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Postsecondary vocational training

Work experience in a related occupation

Long-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Short-term on-the-job training

Bachelor's degree or higher

Post-secondary education less than B.A.

Work related training

About 32% of job growthwill be from positions requiring a

post-secondary education

Colorado

Most job openings: Bachelor’s degree or higher through 2014

3,740

3,900

4,110

4,530

6,550

6,820

7,800

8,780

8,930

11,280

11,350

Network & Computer Systems Administrators

Lawyers

Secondary School Teachers

Network Systems & Data CommunicationsAnalysts

Computer Systems Analysts

Computer Software Engineers, SystemsSoftware

Elementary School Teachers

Business Operations Specialists

Accountants & Auditors

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

General & Operations Managers

Colorado

Web sites

• Colorado Labor Market Informationhttp://www.coworkforce.com/lmi

• Occupational Outlook Handbook http://www.bls.gov/oco/

• Career Guide to Industrieshttp://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/

• Occupational Outlook Quarterlyhttp://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm

For More Information:

303.318.8850

303.318.8870

[email protected]

www.coworkforce.com/lmi

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Looking to Colorado’s Future Alexandra Hall, Director...

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