Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)

Colliding Worlds Workshop with Anton Musgrave

#SMEleaders16

Anton MusgraveSenior Partner

FutureWorld Internationalwww.FutureWorld.org

Dublin2 December 2016

Colliding Worlds

H o w t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e c h a n g i n g w o r l d

CollisionsHow we live

How we interact with each other With our environment

And how we do business

With massive implications

digital business!

Many collisions ahead!

Linear vs. exponential Predictability vs. chaos Physical vs. virtual Legacy vs. speed People vs. machines Ownership vs. access Capitalism vs. shared

wealth

Shareholders vs. ecosystems Jobs vs. creative entrepreneurship Rules vs. flexibility Constraints vs. abundance Fossil fuels vs. renewables Reality vs. dreams West vs. East Tanks and guns vs. Code Reality vs. AI and VR

and MANY more

Andanother collision!

I wish things were like they used to be

Entire industries wither and die

Theworld'slastVCRfactorycloseditsdoors onlylastmonth.

Digitaladvertisingissettoovertakethe$200-billionTVmarket

AndGoogleandFacebookalreadycontrol72%...thenewmonopolies?

India sets world record by launching 20 satellites in a single mission

Tesla may manufacture its electric cars in India

Just thinkBut new industries blossom

Strategic Choices

Its about FOCUS!Looking in the wrong directionAsking the wrong questions

Understand Your Future Context

Your current future

Today Market Forces Evolutionary innovation

Courageous innovation

Analog, Linear, Dumb

Business of Today

Digital, Exponential,

Cognitive Business of Tomorrow

Decline without fast,

radical innovation

What is YOUR future readiness?

What is your digital IQ/EQ?

Our World

New World

Friction = Legacysystems, people and

thinking!

Wedidntdoanythingwrong,butsomehow,

welostStephenElop,CEO,Nokia

whenNokiawasacquiredbyMicrosoft

Yes, they did do something wrong

THEY MISS THE FUTURE!what is that future really going to be?

AND HOW DO WE CREATE IT?

Whatisthis?

"Inthe2030s,wearegoingtosendnano-robotsintothebrainthatwillprovidefullimmersionvirtualrealityfrom

withinthenervoussystemandwillconnectourneo-cortextothecloud.

RayKurzweil October,2015

Thoroughly unbelievable futures

What is YOUR deepest thinking groove?

Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved

Organisation

Leadership

Partnerships

The Environment

Business today

Our Markets

The Environment

Our Markets

Strategic Thinking & Strategic ActionTM

Business Tomorrow

Today Future

Strategic Inputs

Strategic Actions

PoliticalSocialEconomic

Technology

A process for learning from

the future

The

10%Rule

Give us 10% of your time to create a process for choosing

your future.

Needs

Unique valueWinners/Losers

Waypoints today

Future technology Future humans Future business Future work Lessons and rules.

Waypoints


The Computer Revolution


Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution

A fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines

between the physical, digital

and biological worlds

the new neweconomics of digital business

Bio- and Nanotechnology Cognitive Neuroscience Synthetic Biology & Biomimicry Artificial Intelligence Big Data & Advanced Analytics Virtual, Augmented & Mixed Reality Neural and Quantum Computing

Driving costs downOpening new global markets

Creating new industriesChallenging incumbents

New sciences and technologies

Imagine a world where EVERYONE and EVERYTHING

is connected

Ubiquitous connectivity

Over to Facebook

Connected, virtual, intelligent everything!

From www toWeb of the whole, wide

worldwwww!

It's just insane!

The 'LUDICROUS' button has just been launched!

When your self-driving car has a bank account

$$$$

Cars today: parked 96% of the time 1/3 of urban land for parking In dense cities (e.g. Los Angeles) up to 60% EIGHT parking spaces per car in use 13% of the avg home for parking vehicles

JUST THINK OF THE POSSIBILITIES!

We have reached peak cars as we know them!

BUTwhat does this mean?

Energy internet managed by the blockchain

Energy tipping point

Renewable energy overtakes coalnow the world's largest installed power source

500,000 solar panels installed every day

Key technologies are hydro, solar and wind

Source: International Energy Agency 2016 World Energy Outlook

Exponential ThinkingFacebook: creates no content

Uber: owns no carsAirbnb: owns no roomsAlibaba: keeps no stock

Whatsapp: owns no serversApple: owns no factoriesNetflix: owns no cinemas

Game changers: Fast new models

Legacy ThinkingLarge and clunkyMassive overhead

Thousands of peopleTrained in out-dated methods!

AI / Machine Learning / Big Data

Machines vs Humans

"There is no single human skill that

cannot be done by robots or Artificial

Intelligence"

Whew! Thankfully, we're not factory workers

A universal wage for all?

As AI and robotics develop, so jobs are disappearing. How will humans live without work?

VR = New human experiences?

Combinatorial innovation explodes

Ubiquitous connectivity

Internet of everything

Big, deep & dark data

Artificial Intelligence, VR & IoTSmart robotics

Self learning systems

Fractal free energy

Smart Life

Man vs. Machine

Waypoints


The human revolution

Genomics, neural prosthetics, augmentation

Longer life New human relevance

Big issues to comebut do you remember Test tube babies?

Privacy and the right to be forgotten Digital ethics Terrorism, torture and crime Government intervention looms

THREE BILLION new minds will join the global economy in next

10 years

Tens of $trillions in emerging buying power

And a new internet-empowered entrepreneurial class

Game changers: Scale

Can we deal with them?

They ARE different!

What about YOUR kids?

Future Auditors?

Its 2026.What do they really want.how do they operate...how do

they buy? Lessons for us?

Waypoints


The new world is Exponentially different

Not negotiable!

Are you ready to operate in this world?

Naked Leadership

Life in a Fishbowl: The Challenge of an Open and Transparent Marketplace

Living in Exponential times2035

2016

1995

1795

You are here -------->

Many vs. the Experts

Toxic assumptions in Cokes business?

Discuss some core toxic assumptions in your 2016 thinking?

Discuss the KEY strategic enablers of exponential change in Irish

businesses.

Your feet are on fire!

The 21st Century Corporation? Open, frictionless world Ideas flow freelyso does capital! New competitors and markets New relationships & ecosystems!

Waypoints


Purposemustbepartofouroperatingmodel.Everybrandmustbecomeacause,asocialmovement womensesteemwithDove,

hygienewithLifebouy- PaulPolman,CEOUnilever

DeviseaStrongPurpose

Be careful of yesterdays experts

Dream #workrevolution!

Is it insightful?Is it exponential?Is it disruptive?

Is it aspirational?

What Characteristics Create Value?

RationalAnalysis

ReductionistLinear

IntuitiveSynthesisHolistic

Nonlinear

Source: Based on the thinking of Fritjof Capra The Web of Life 1996

Mechanistic World

Thinking

Strategy

ConservationCooperation

QualityPartnership

ExpansionCompetition

QuantityDomination

Systemic/Fractal World

How does your net worth stack up?As an individual? As a business?

How do you evolve these new attitudes?

ENGAGE

ENABLE

INSPIREREWARD

Four steps to build The Leader of the Future

Relevance of Future leaders Key leadership attributes to ensure 2026

relevance? Skills Attitudes Diversity Future readiness Future fit Core Behaviours ????

Action ScenariosTM


ELEPHANT AND CROUCHING TIGER

INDIAIn the 21st Century


Low Economic Growth High

Higher Government Intervention Lower

Low Economic Incentives High

Low Environmental Focus High

Higher Ethnic Conflicts Lower

Key Strategic Drivers/Dilemmas


Scenario MatrixParadise Found

Government actively drives growth, infrastructure and regional

integration. Urban and rural populations absorbed into booming economy. World leader in services, biotech and health care. Active and

positive role in world politics.

Unfulfilled DreamGovernment thrusts into

economic liberation thwarted by a dull world economy and reduced

consumer demand. Political turmoil follows poor economic

performance.

Mega-Slums Government's increasingly socialist policies kill economic growth. Poverty expands and major businesses leave their research facilities and unemployment leads to unrest.

Business DepartsIndia becomes increasingly isolated from a growing world economy. Government controls increase and infrastructure crumbles. Mobile Indian diaspora establish businesses elsewhere.

Flat

W

orld

Eco

nom

y B

oom

ing

Conflict Government/Business Synergy

?

?The Future of India

?

?

Action ScenariosTM

Discuss and agree the 6 key

drivers/forces shaping the 2026future of Irish business

Understanding our strategic choices

Characteristic 2.

Characteristic 4Characteristic 3

Characteristic 1Characteristic 1

Low

D

river

1

Hig

h

Low Driver 2 High

?

?The Future

of .

?

?

Likely Future

Ideal Future

Contin-gency

Contin-gency

Contin-gency

Key Insights for YOUR business?

Waypoints


Strategy in 3 Pics!

The Digital IQ and EQ of your business?

WHY would I talk about you? When and how would I talk about you?

Do I care enough about you? Is your business visible?

Is your business incredibly useful? What stories would I tell?

Is YOUR business contagious?Contagious: Jonah Berger

Telling the storya passionate purpose

Enable Humanness

AwarenessMysteryEmotionSerendipityStoriesRelationshipsCreativityDesignHumourFun

Business of Today

SWOT

Competitor AnalysisConstraintsRules

Business of Tomorrow

Understand the future contextDefine a new gameOpportunitiesCreativity

Linear BusinessTop-down, bureaucratic and

hierarchicalDriven by financial outcomes

Innovation from withinRisk intolerant

Processes are fixed and inflexible

Strategy by extrapolating from the past

Exponential BusinessNetworked, fast, agile and open

Driven by a Massively Transformative Purpose

Collaboration and partnershipHigh risk appetite, fail fastProcesses outsourced and

market-responsiveBig vision and short-term course

correction

Which do you want to be?

I have a spread-sheet!I have a budget!I have a strategy!

Martin Luther King

Your future is journey and it is a matter of choice NOT chance!

The Future is Ours!

[email protected]#antonmus

www.mindbullets.netwww.futureworld.org

Thank you!

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Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)

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Transcript of Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)