Cognitive Systems & the New Era of...
Transcript of Cognitive Systems & the New Era of...
Computing Power, processing and memory for Intelligent language and Situation understanding
Cognitive Systems & the New Era of Computing
Dr. Ton Engbersen
Dr. Ton Engbersen
May, 2013
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Dr. Ton Engbersen
Scientific Director ASTRON & IBM Center for Exascale Technology,Mgr. Energy ManagementMember IBM Academy of Technology – Past VP Europe
IBM Zurich Research Laboratory – Switzerland.
IBM Research Globalization
China
WatsonAlmaden Austin Tokyo
Zurich
India
Dublin
Haifa
© 2013 IBM Corporation
IBM Research Labs
Australia
Brazil
� Semiconductors� Processors
Africa
IBM Research Collaborations
China
WatsonAlmaden Austin Tokyo
Zurich
India
Dublin
Haifa
New YorkAlmaden
Austin Tokyo
Haifa
India
ChinaDOME
© 2013 IBM Corporation
IBM Research Labs
Australia
Brazil
Africa
Austin
© 2013 IBM Corporation
250 Dense Aperture Arrays 2500 Dishes
3-Core Central Region
SKA Array & Receptor Technologies
© 2013 IBM Corporation
250 Sparse Aperture Arrays
Artists’ Renditions from Swinburne Astronomy Productions
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Up to 10,000 Times larger
Data
Scale
Exa
Peta
Tera
Da
ta a
t R
es
t
Big Data
SKA
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Up to 10,000 times faster
Traditional Data Warehouse and
Business Intelligence
Data
Scale
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time
Data in Motion
Da
ta a
t R
es
t
SKA as an example
RCU Board
A/D
GbE
sw
itch
(2
4 p
ort
s)
RSP Board
WAN
Output
Filter
Filter
Filter
ΣΣΣΣ
ΣΣΣΣ
ΣΣΣΣ
Beamformer
150 Tbit/s 150 Tbit/s 150 Tbit/s 150 Tbit/s (all stations)(all stations)(all stations)(all stations)
25..250 25..250 25..250 25..250 PByte/dayPByte/dayPByte/dayPByte/day
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Backplane& RF Shield
DistributedBeamforming
Sta
tio
nG
bE
sw
itch
(2
4 p
ort
s)
WAN fibreconnections
RSP board 24
Output
controlFilter ΣΣΣΣ
14 EByte/day 14 EByte/day 14 EByte/day 14 EByte/day (all antennas)(all antennas)(all antennas)(all antennas)
1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day
© 2013 IBM Corporation
25 … 250 PB/day25 … 250 PB/day25 … 250 PB/day25 … 250 PB/day 1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day
Top 500: Sum=123 PFlops. 2GFlops/watt.
���� 100x Flops of Sum! ���� ~ 7GWh
System Analysis
Computing Transport Storage
-P1: Algorithms & Machines
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Computing Transport Storage
- P3: Nanophotonics
- P7: RT-Communications
- P6: Compressive
Sampling
- P4: Microservers
- P5: Accelerators
- P2: Access Patterns
P8: Project Lead
Up to 10,000 Times larger
Data
Scale
Exa
Peta
Tera
Da
ta a
t R
es
t
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Up to 10,000 times faster
Traditional Data Warehouse and
Business Intelligence
Data
Scale
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time
Data in Motion
Da
ta a
t R
es
t
© 2013 IBM Corporation
© 2013 IBM Corporation
The Growth of Uncertain Data Presents a Challenge to Today’s Computers:
Cognitive Computing
Exa
byte
s
9000
8000
7000
6000
Percentage of uncertain data
Pe
rce
nt o
f un
ce
rtain
da
ta
100
80
60
Sensors & Devices
© 2013 IBM Corporation14
2010
Vo
lum
e in
Exa
byte
s
6000
5000
4000
3000
2015
Pe
rce
nt o
f un
ce
rtain
da
ta
40
20
0
You are here
VoIP
Enterprise Data
Social Media
Big Data is Ushering in a New Era of Computing
Cognitive Computing
Volume Velocity Variety Veracity
© 2013 IBM Corporation15
Terabytes to exabytes of existing data to process
Streaming data, milliseconds to seconds to respond
Structured, unstructured, text and multimedia
Uncertainty from inconsistency, ambiguities, etc.
Eras of Computing
Cognitive Computing
Tabulating Systems Programmable Systems Cognitive Systems
© 2013 IBM Corporation16
� Sorting and counting
� Sales
� Inventory
� Accounting/general ledger
� Transaction processing
� Database marketing
� e-Commerce
� Near real-time decision support
� Cog.ni.tive: of or pertaining to the mental processes of perception, memory, judgment, learning, and reasoning.
On February 14, 2011, IBM Watson changed history . . .
Cognitive Computing
© 2013 IBM Corporation17
The New Era of Computing – Cognitive Systems
Cognitive Computing
Training and Learning EnginesTo Build Models and Define Insight Policy Engine
(Natural Interfaces)
Society Nature Institutions Archives
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To Build Models and Define Insight
Hypothesis EnginesTo Understand and Plan Actions
Policy EngineBusiness, Legal
and Ethical Rules
Verification Engines(e.g. Simulations)
Active Learning
Outcome EngineActuation and Validation
Watson vs. Brain: Big Efficiency Gap Calls for Technology Innovation
Cognitive Computing
Sys
tem
Po
we
r (W
)
5 nm
15 to 11 nm45 nm
Watson Power Scalingwith Moore’s Law
> 1,000x
© 2013 IBM Corporation19
Sys
tem
Po
we
r (W
)
Year
with Moore’s Law> 1,000xEfficiencyGap*
*brain does far more than scaled Watson
Human Brain
Cognitive Computing
CognitiveCognitiveComputingComputing
© 2013 IBM Corporation20
NanotechnologyNanotechnology
ComputingComputing
Cognitive Computing
Brain can Integrate and Co-ordinate Multiple Sensory, Motor Modalities
© 2013 IBM Corporation21
Cognitive Computing
Computers and the Brain: Different & Complementary
© 2013 IBM Corporation22
Integrates memory and processor
Parallel, distributed processing
Event-driven, low active power
Does “nothing” better, low passive power
Learning system, reconfigurable, fault-tolerant
Substrate and pattern recognition
Separates memory and processor
Sequential, centralized processing
Ever increasing clock rates, high active power
Huge passive power
Programmed system, hard-wired, fault-prone
Algorithms and analytics
Cognitive Computing
“Mimicking” the Brain:
© 2013 IBM Corporation23
"Spikes“ as Computational
Primitives
W_0*w(0)
W_1*w(1)
W_i*w(i)
W_n*w(n)
Threshold
0/1∑
0
1
i
n
Cognitive Computing
© 2013 IBM Corporation
First cognitive computing chips developed at IBM Research – Almaden
Learn more at ibm.com/synapse
24
Cognitive Computing
SynapsesScheduler
Demonstrated Two Neurosynaptic Cores in 45nm CMOS-SOI
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Neurons
(a)256 neurons, 64K synapses, 1MHzLearning on board
(b)256 neurons, 256K synapses, asynchronous, 45 pJ/spike
25
~ 1000x Human Brain
Cognitive Computing
© 2013 IBM Corporation26
IBM Watson brings together a set of transformational technologies to drive optimized outcomes
99%
60%
10%
Understandsnatural language and human speech
Generates and evaluates
hypothesis for better outcomes
2
1
Cognitive Computing
© 2013 IBM Corporation27
human speech
Adapts and Learns from user selections and responses
3IBM Watson represents a new class of cognitive
solutions built on a massively parallel probabilistic
evidence-based architecture
Challenge
� Rising caseloads: 1.6 million new cancer cases this year in the US alone*
� Complexity of cancer: a disease with hundreds of sub-types
� Non-specialists cannot keep up with rapidly changing information
Case Study: A Cognitive System Applied to Medical Diagnosis
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Cognitive Computing
© 2013 IBM Corporation28*American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts and Figures 2012
changing information
Solution
� Combine IBM Watson with Sloan Kettering’s clinical knowledge, molecular and genomic data and vast repository of cancer case histories, along with updated guidelines and published research
� Share evidenced-based options to oncologists anywhere to help them decide how best to care for an individual patient
Watson just keeps getting smarter
First applications for lung, breast and prostate cancers
under development.
Pilots to begin with a select group of oncologists by
year-end
Bio-InspiredComputation
InAs
Neuromorphic & Quantum Devices
Non-Von NeumannArchitectures
Von NeumannArchitectures
Algorithms
New Devices, Architectures &
Computing Paradigms
New ArchitecturesLeveraging
100’s of Billions of
Inc
rea
sin
g E
ffic
ien
cy
Computing Without Programming
+Neuromorphic
Devices &Circuits
Quantum Devices & Circuits
50µm
Device and Technology Roadmap
Cognitive Computing
© 2013 IBM Corporation29
Time
Subsystem Integration(3D, SCM, Photonics)
CarbonElectronics
High-k
Nanowires
Vddh
ck2_hick2b_hi
ck2
ck2bck2_lo
ck2b_loen
Vc=Vddh-Vdd
(constant)
Vddh
ck2_hick2b_hi
ck2
ck2bck2_lo
ck2b_loen
Vc=Vddh-Vdd
(constant)
Low VCircuits & Architecture
InAs
Si
Low VDevices
ReconfigurableLogic
Architectures
Today
Accelerators
Spintronic& Magnetic
100’s of Billions of Low-Voltage Devices
Existing Architectures
Inc
rea
sin
g E
ffic
ien
cy
Computing with Programs: Fetch Instructions, Decode, Execute & Repeat.
FPGA’s
Cognitive Computing
Biologically-Inspired Learning Systems
© 2013 IBM Corporation30
1014
Synapses1014
Synapses
Cognitive ComputingC
om
pu
ter
Inte
llig
en
ce
Watson2011
CognitiveSystems
Cognitive Systems: The New Tools for the 21st CenturyThe New IT
Frontier
“Within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess
champion” 1958,H. A. Simon and Allen Newell
© 2013 IBM Corporation31Time
Co
mp
ute
r In
tell
igen
ce
Counting Machine
Circa 1820
ENIACcirca 1945
AntikytheraAstronomical
Computercirca 87 BC
Abacuscirca
3500 BC
Napier’’’’s Rodscirca 1600
System/360 1964
Deep Blue1997
Calculators
“There is a sense from many places that whoever figures out how the brain computes will come up with the next generation of computers,”
says Dr. Thomas Insel, the director of the USA National Institute of Mental Health.
© 2013 IBM Corporation32