Cognitive Continuum Theory Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D. Center for Policy Research Rockefeller College...

Cognitive Continuum Theory

Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D.Center for Policy Research

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at Albany

State University of New [email protected]

Public Administration and PolicyPAD634 Judgment and Decision Making Behavior

cognitive-continuum.ppt 2

Premise I: A cognitive continuum

Various modes, or forms, of cognition can be ordered in relation to one another on a continuum that is identified by intuitive cognition at one pole and analytical cognition at the other.

Hammond (1996), p. 147


Premise II: Common sense

The forms of cognition that lie on the continuum between intuition and analysis include elements of both intuition and analysis and are included under the term quasirationality. This form of cognition is known to the layperson as “common sense.”

Hammond (1996), p. 150


Premise III: Theory of task structures

Cognitive tasks can be ordered on a continuum with regard to their capacity to induce intuition, quasirationality, or analytical cognition.

Hammond (1996), p. 180


Cognition and tasks on a continuum

Cognitive continuum

Intuition AnalysisQuasirationality

(“common sense”)

Task continuum

Intuition-inducing Analysis-inducing


Properties of intuition and analysis (review)

Cognitive control Low High

Rate of dataprocessing

Rapid Slow

Conscious awareness Low High

Organizing principle Weighted average Task specific

Errors Normally distributed Few, but large

Confidence High confidence inanswer;

Low confidence inmethod

Low confidence inanswer;

High confidence inmethod

Intuition Analysis

Based on Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M., Grassia, J., & Pearson, T. (1987). Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-17, 753-770.


Dual systems

From: Kahneman, D. and Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. in T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics & Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (pp. 49-81). New York: Cambridge University Press.

See also: Sloman, S. A. (2002). Two systems of reasoning. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. (pp. 379-396). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Hammond argues (p. 147 ff.) that this dichotomy is not useful, and should be replaced by a continuum.

Elaboration of task-cognition relation

Task Characteristic Intuition-inducing stateof tasks characteristic

Analysis-inducing stateof task characteristic

1. Number of cues large (>5) small2. Measurement of cues perceptual measurement objective, reliable

measurement3. Distribution of cue values continuous, highly

variable distributionunknown distribution;

cues are dichotomous;values are discrete

4. Redundancy among cues high redundancy low redundancy5. Decomposition of task low high6. Degree of uncertainty in task low certainty high certainty7. Relation between cues andcriterion

linear nonlinear

8. Weighting of cues inenvironmental model

equal unequal

9. Availability of organizingprinciple

unavailable available

10. Display of cues simultaneous display sequential display11. Time period brief long


Premise IV: Dynamic cognition

Cognitive activities may move along the intuitive-analytic continuum over time; as they do so, the relative contributions of intuitive and analytical components to quasirationality will change. Successful cognition that maintains constancy with the environment inhibits movement; failure and loss of constancy stimulate it.

Hammond (1996), p. 192


Premise IV: Theory of task structures

“Oscillation”

Hammond (1996), p. 195


Premise V: Pattern recognition and functional relations

Human cognition is capable of pattern recognition and the use of functional relations.

Hammond (1996), p. 196

Alternation between the use of multiple fallible indicators and patterns (p. 198).

Narrative (p. 200)


Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond, 1980)

• Complexity of task structure

– Texture of judgment scale, number of cues, vicarious mediation, cue distribution, weights, organizing principle

• Ambiguity of task content– Availability of an organizing principle, task outcome

available, familiarity with content, feedforward, feedback

• Form of task presentation– Task decomposition, cognitive decomposition, type of cue

data, type of cue definition, response time permitted or implied

Cognitive Continuum Theory Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D. Center for Policy Research Rockefeller College...

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