Cogent Company.March Analytics Event

Right People, Right Business, Right Direc4on Seminar

Cogent Company March 22, 2012

Order of Events for Seminar

•  11a to 11:30a Arrivals, Networking and Lunch •  11:30a to 11:45a Marc Hoppers, Welcome and IntroducCons •  11:45a to noon Bill Schaffler, People Report/Black Box Intelligence •  Noon to 12:30p Simon Saugier, Cogent AnalyCcs DemonstraCon •  12:30p to 1p Marc Hoppers, Discussion and Wrap Up

2 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.

About Cogent Company


Marc Hoppers Managing Partner Cogent Company

Who is Cogent Company?


Select Client List

5 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.

Cogent Thinking

• Office 2003 Programming: Real World ApplicaCons • Pro ASP.NET 2.0 Website Programming • Mastering Office Programming with VSTO • Beginning MicrosoZ Word 2010

Books

•  5 Business Reasons for AdopCng the Windows Pla\orm -‐ CIO.COM • Easy Time & Billing with SharePoint, Outlook, & Excel (and VSTO tool) -‐ Devx.com • Repurpose SharePoint Services Data Using Excel's Spreadsheet XML -‐ Devx.com • Outlook the Way You Want It—Build Custom Outlook GUIs with WinForms & VSTO -‐ Devx.com • Create a Sales Dashboard using Excel, InfoPath and VSTO 2005 -‐ Devx.com • VSTO's Outlook IntegraCon Makes Building Managed Add-‐ins A Snap -‐ Devx.com • An Office Developer's Timesaver: Using VSTO 2005 to Integrate Excel and Access -‐ Devx.com

ArCcles (call for links)

• Southern Methodist University, Cox School of Business: Adjunct Faculty; Guest Lecturer, IT and OperaCons Management. • University of North Texas: Guest Lecturer in College of Business AdministraCon and English Department; Advisory Board, College of Business AdministraCon, InformaCon Technology & Decision Sciences Department • Member, University of North Texas Center for Decision and InformaCon Technology.

Academics


Restaurant Industry Overview


Bill Schaffler COO/CFO People Report/Black Box Intelligence

Restaurant Intelligence March 2012

About Their Sample Size •  32,000+ Units •  1 Million+ Employees •  $35 Billion+ in Sales


Year Over Year Stacked Results by Quarter


Comp Sales Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL

FY 2009 -‐5.8% -‐6.1% -‐7.0% -‐4.8% -‐5.9%

FY 2010 -‐1.7% -‐0.5% +2.0% +2.0% +0.5%

FY 2011 +2.4% +2.1% +0.4% +1.4% +1.6%

FY 2012 +2.7%

TOTAL -‐2.4% -‐4.5% -‐4.6% -‐1.4% -‐3.8%

Source: Black Box Intelligence

Comp Store Sales & Traffic 12-‐Month Trend


-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5% Comp Store Sales


By Segment 12-‐Month Trend


-‐5.0%

-‐4.0%

-‐3.0%

-‐2.0%

-‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Fast Casual / Family Dining Casual Dining Upscale Casual / Fine Dining


Comp Sales & Traffic Against Gas Prices


$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

Comp Sales Comp Traffic Retail Gas Prices

Source: Black Box Intelligence & Energy InformaCon AdministraCon US Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices

CER Restaurant Willingness to Spend Index Feb 2011-‐2012


60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105 Overall 3 Month Rolling Average Base Level

Source: Consumer Edge Research Analysis

CER Willingness to Spend Index by Income Feb 2011-‐2012


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120 High Income Middle Income

Source: Consumer Edge Research Analysis

Comp Store Sales by Quar4les Feb 2011-‐2012


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8% 25th percentile Median


Comp Store Traffic by Quar4les Feb 2011-‐2012


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6% 25th percentile Median


Comp Sales and Traffic by Region Rolling 12 Months


2.05%

-0.73%

1.20% 1.30%

2.42%

2.92%

1.29%

2.23% 1.80% 1.74%

2.65% 2.23%

-0.75%

-2.20%

-0.54%

-1.34% -1.54%

0.40%

-1.87%

-0.86%

-1.77% -1.78%

-0.65%

1.45%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

Sales Traffic


Comp Sales and Traffic by Region Last Two Weeks


-‐10.0%

-‐8.0%

-‐6.0%

-‐4.0%

-‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%


Regional View: Comp Sales DMA Rankings


Rank Region Feb Jan 1 Tulsa 10.84% 9.12% 2 Milwaukee 9.94% 6.65% 3 Detroit 8.95% 7.62% 4 Wichita Hutchinson 8.66% 10.67% 5 Ft. Smith Fayetteville Springdale Rogers 8.60% 6.29% 6 Green Bay Appleton 8.44% 11.05% 7 Madison 8.37% 4.70% 8 Little Rock Pine Bluff 7.95% 5.41% 9 Ft. Wayne 6.93% -0.10%

10 Jackson MS 6.86% 4.08% 11 Indianapolis 6.75% 2.70% 12 Sherman Ada 6.48% 4.59% 13 Topeka 6.29% 13.39% 14 Oklahoma City 6.09% 7.51% 15 Memphis 5.97% 7.07% 16 Lubbock 5.97% 4.76% 17 Dallas-Ft. Worth 5.86% 5.71% 18 Albany Schenectady Troy 5.61% 8.11% 19 San Antonio 5.52% 5.35% 20 Harlingen McAllen Brownsville 5.44% 6.62% 21 Evansville 5.29% 7.10% 22 Houston 5.28% 2.51% 23 Cedar Rapids Waterloo Dubuque 5.24% 1.65% 24 Des Moines Ames 5.23% 2.47% 25 Cincinnati 5.18% 5.04% 26 Charlottesville 5.14% 7.51% 27 Minneapolis St. Paul 4.86% 3.06% 28 Cleveland Akron Canton 4.79% 2.77% 29 Wichita Falls Lawton 4.67% 8.80% 30 Springfield 4.53% 2.42% 31 Shreveport 4.52% 5.27%

Rank Region Feb Jan 32 Grand Rapids Kalamazoo Battle Creek 4.46% 4.44% 33 Tyler-Longview Lufkin Nacogdoches 4.33% 3.88% 34 Chicago 4.28% 1.03% 35 Birmingham Anniston Tuscaloosa 4.24% 5.58% 36 Nashville 4.23% 7.00% 37 Kansas City 4.06% 6.65% 38 Austin 4.04% 3.15% 39 Knoxville 3.88% 8.38% 40 Las Vegas 3.82% 3.68% 41 Ft. Myers Naples 3.82% 4.07% 42 Waco Temple Bryan 3.73% 3.03% 43 Augusta 3.69% 4.86% 44 Amarillo 3.64% 5.97% 45 Syracuse 3.37% 4.85% 46 Denver 3.34% 3.69% 47 Columbus GA 3.21% 0.18% 48 Columbia 3.14% 4.40% 49 Florence Myrtle Beach 3.11% 8.33% 50 Salt Lake City 3.04% 2.72% 51 Tampa St. Petersburg Sarasota 3.03% 3.00% 52 San Francisco Oakland San Jose 3.02% 1.79% 53 Colorado Springs Pueblo 2.98% 1.96% 54 Columbus OH 2.90% 3.66% 55 Palm Springs 2.80% 4.76% 56 Charleston 2.76% 1.77% 57 Greenville 2.75% 4.22% 58 Orlando Daytona Beach Melbourne 2.75% 3.53% 59 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 2.62% 3.21% 60 Springfield Holyoke 2.50% 4.69% 61 Albuquerque Santa Fe 2.49% 1.62% 62 Seattle Tacoma 2.49% -0.20% Source: Black Box Intelligence

Regional View: Comp Sales DMA Rankings -‐ con4nued


Rank Region Feb Jan 63 Champaign Springfield Decatur 2.48% 3.88% 64 Dayton 2.35% 2.10% 65 Chattanooga 2.26% 4.42% 66 Omaha 2.12% 7.38% 67 Charlotte 2.11% 4.02% 68 Portland 2.11% 1.88% 69 Louisville 2.08% 4.30% 70 Mobile Pensacola 2.02% -0.20% 71 Atlanta 1.96% 5.68% 72 West Palm Beach Ft. Pierce 1.92% 3.13% 73 Tallahassee Thomasville 1.80% 1.01% 74 Pittsburgh 1.72% 7.95% 75 Huntsville Decatur Florence 1.69% 4.72% 76 Phoenix 1.64% 2.53% 77 St. Louis 1.62% 0.00% 78 Youngstown 1.55% 3.31% 79 Los Angeles 1.44% 3.11% 80 New Orleans 1.38% -1.00% 81 Roanoke Lynchburg 1.26% 3.82% 82 Greensboro High Point Winston Salem 1.22% 5.22% 83 Baton Rouge 1.15% -1.90% 84 Montgomery Selma 0.96% -1.50% 85 Raleigh Durham Fayetteville 0.95% 4.01% 86 Norfolk Portsmouth Newport News 0.89% 1.50% 87 Jacksonville Brunswick 0.77% 0.87% 88 Sacramento Stockton Modesto 0.42% -0.30% 89 Lexington 0.29% 4.81% 90 Richmond Petersburg 0.13% 3.86% 91 Fresno Visalia 0.06% 0.06% 92 Tucson Sierra Vista 0.04% 2.77% 93 San Diego -0.10% 1.13%

Rank Region Feb Jan 94 Harrisburg Lancaster Lebanon York -0.20% 3.53% 95 El Paso -0.40% 0.63% 96 Buffalo -0.50% 0.66% 97 Boston Manchester -0.60% 0.29% 98 New York -0.70% 3.87% 99 Bluefield-Beckley Oak Hill -0.90% 6.58%

100 Greenville New Bern Washington -0.90% 2.44% 101 Macon -0.90% -1.10% 102 Johnstown Altoona -1.00% 2.07% 103 Baltimore -1.20% 2.44% 104 Charleston Huntington -1.20% 4.15% 105 Tri-Cities -1.40% 3.08% 106 Hartford New Haven -1.60% 1.77% 107 Philadelphia -1.70% 3.97% 108 Rochester -1.70% -0.80% 109 Washington DC -2.60% 1.20% 110 Providence New Bedford -3.00% -0.70% 111 Savannah -3.90% -2.80% 112 Wilmington -4.30% -0.20%


Management Turnover by Quarter Q2 2009 – Q4 2011


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Quick Service Fast Casual/Family

Casual Dining Upscale Casual/Fine

Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11

Source: People Report

Hourly Turnover by Quarter Q1 2009 – Q4 2011


40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100% 110% 120% 130%

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11

Quick Service Casual Dining Upscale Casual/Fine

Source: People Report

Black Box Sales Intelligence Sample Dashboard Comp Store Sales by Growth


Black Box Sales Intelligence Sample Dashboard Weekly Trends


People Report Sample Dashboard Front of House Salary Intelligence


Cogent AnalyCcs DemonstraCon


Simon Saugier Managing Consultant Cogent Company

Introducing the Sandlot

•  You’ve probably never seen The Sandlot as you drive down the street, but restaurant operators and franchisees, hoteliers, and retail operators will recognize many of the paZerns described in the following dashboards.

•  Cogent Company consultants have aggregated our experience in the restaurant, hospitality, and retail verCcals to create two years of operaCng data history for The Sandlot. We have modeled all of the elements you would need to manage a restaurant in a analyCcs soluCon: •  Sales, revenue, cost •  Management and hourly staff costs and performance behavior •  Item-‐level sales and performance informaCon •  Unit and regional level performance visualizaCons

•  The Sandlot analyCcs soluCon accommodates the needs of mulCple types of users, including execuCves, operaConal senior managers, regional managers, and unit managers.

•  Finally, The Sandlot analyCcs soluCon is built on technology that allows it to run either in your data center or in the cloud, and it can run on PC or Mac desktops and laptops and Android or Apple tablets.


Assessing Sales and Revenue

Using Dashboards to Iden4fy Trends Across Your Geographies…

Trends oten appear through interacCve visualizaCon where you hadn’t seen them in tradiConal Excel spreadsheets or reports.

Tracking Item-‐Level Performance to Improve Performance

Affinity or basket analysis, item performance, or seasonal-‐ or weather-‐related trends can guide markeCng and supplier decisions.


Unit Comparisons and In-‐Unit Analysis

Understanding the Compara4ve Performance of Units…

IdenCfying the performance between units can help senior management idenCfy trends and act at mulC-‐unit levels.

Performance Within Your Units Can Guide Managers…

Giving unit managers the power to understand the performance at their unit can help them make changes to improve performance.


Keeping Track of Your Talent

Managing Top and Boeom Talent…

IdenCfying and managing your best talent is key to success in any restaurant, hospitality or retail operaCon.

Keeping The Best Talent and Growing New Talent…

Understanding turnover at the unit, regional, etc., level can guide retenCon, promoCon, or separaCon acCons.


Adjustments and Payments

Tracking Transac4ons Where You Don’t Make Money…

Knowing where you’re making money is important. Knowing where you’re not making money can help you make profitable decisions.

Monitoring Payment Types to Improve Performance…

Knowing how your customers are paying can guide vendor discussions and help you improve your customer experience.


Discussion


For More InformaCon, Contact Marc Hoppers

Office: 214.341.1004 Email: [email protected]

www.cogentcompany.com

Cogent Company.March Analytics Event

Technology

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