1

COBR: Influenza Pandemic (Emergency Response Simulation), by Eleanor Newton,

Lancaster University BA Hons student, 2015

Please direct all enquiries to:

Dr Matthew Johnson, Lecturer in Politics, Department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion,

Lancaster University, m.johnson@lancs.ac.uk or;

Katherine Young, Recruitment Co-ordinator, Department of Politics, Philosophy and

Religion, Lancaster University, k.young1@lancaster.ac.uk

WARNING: In preparing for the role play scenario, students must only research the conflict

using reputable mainstream media sources, such as The BBC, CNN, ITN, The Guardian, The

Times, The Independent, The Telegraph, etc. Briefing papers are provided to explain the

broader context of the conflict.

2

COBR:

Influenza

Pandemic

(Emergency

Response

Simulation)

3

General Introduction:

Feedback from a previous similar simulation exercise cited its

‘immersive’ nature, contribution to the development of skills

including ‘public speaking, negotiation, planning and preparation,

roleplay and ICT’ and its scope for ‘independent thinking and

learning’ as key components to its success. This simulation has

therefore been designed with careful reference to this previous

feedback with regards to its pace, structure, development of

transferable skills, complexity and format of information, and

enjoyability. This political simulation will be based upon an

influenza pandemic scenario within the UK; taking the form of a mock

‘Cabinet Office Briefing Room’ table-top, time-lapse activity. The

exercise will be predominately student-led due to the targeted age

(16-18 year olds) however facilitators will be on hand to ensure the

flow of the simulation, the safety of the pupils and the dissemination

of resources. In order to ensure students gain first-hand experience

of the difficulties associated with responding to crises, information

will be limited and real-time interjections will take place. Students

will leave the exercise with a greater understanding of the general

UK political process, its institutions, its actors and its scope,

through the microcosmic lens of the crisis. Logistical and pedagogical

considerations have been taken into account at all levels of the

simulation’s design in order to maximize its impact.

4

Aims and Objectives:

1. Content-oriented primary aim: To gain an understanding of the

actors, issues, institutions and limitations involved in the UK

policy-making process.

The specific objectives within this aim are to introduce or enhance

students’ understanding of a)the general scope of political decision

making within the UK b)the actors, agencies and institutions involved,

both at a national and international level, and their corresponding

roles/responsibilities c)the ethical, legal and economic

considerations involved in making often-difficult decisions, d)the

importance of political communication and the media, and finally e)the

potential political, economic and social implications of a health

crisis.

2. Process and skills-oriented secondary aim: To develop a broad

range of cross-curricular and transferable skills:

The specific objectives within this aim are to use and improve a range

of essential skills including a) independent research, b) teamwork,

debate, conflict resolution and cooperative decision-making, c)the

ability to analyse and interpret complex, incomplete or potentially

unreliable pieces of information and identify the key points,

d)effective and appropriate media communication and e)self-reflection

and evaluation.

5

Simulation Design:

General:

● Students will be allocated their role (depending on numbers,

extra roles could be included/omitted or roles may be filled by

several students) and issued with the initial Task, Scenario

Briefing Paper and the ‘Warning and Informing the Public’

guidance sheet (based on official UK government guidelines.1

● Students will then be required to further research their roles

and consider their responsibilities/areas of expertise in

relation to the scenario.

● Students may also wish to familiarise themselves with real-life

examples of pandemics and responses to them, and critically

analyse the impact they may have within the specific area covered

by their department.

● At the initial meet, each student should introduce themselves

and their role within the process to the other members of the

group and decide upon certain operational considerations: how

decisions will be made within the tasks?

● The simulation will take the form of a table-top role-play under

time-lapse rather than real-time conditions.

● Task 1 (the first 24 hours) will be set, debated and decisions

made, based on the information provided in the initial Scenario

Briefing Paper. Students will prepare their first press release

(in which they shall convey the government’s response and advise

the public).

● Task 2 (the first week) will be set, debated and decisions made,

based upon the second briefing sheet received. ETC...

● During the simulation, several further interjections may take

place to challenge the students and replicate real-life

conditions: in response to the constructive feedback provided,

these will take the form of multimedia and suggestions have been

provided within the resources.

1https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/

253488/Emergency_Response_and_Recovery_5th_edition_October_2013.pdf

6

Logistical Information, Pedagogical Considerations & Extra

Concerns:

● Ideally the simulation should take place over the course of half

a day, in order to allow for unstructured debate (process-

orientated) alongside the completion of tasks, press releases

and the reflection exercise (content-orientated).

● The simulation will be student-led, however a facilitator will

be present to disseminate the information updates, manage

timekeeping, lead the debrief and ensure the welfare of the

students involved is not compromised at any point.

● The involvement of specific roles have been incorporated into

different tasks within the game to better-facilitate full

participation and encourage quieter members of the group to

become more involved: at the same time allowing for spontaneous

interjections of other actors to allow for student creativity

and role immersion.

● Inclusiveness of the simulation should be prioritised:

consequently it is suggested that roles are given out on a random

basis in order to prevent already confident students from

dominating roles they may deem more important.

Timetable and Instructions:

Time Activity Details/ Instructions

One Week Prior

to Event

Student

preparation for

simulation

Students should be assigned their role, given

the relevant role information sheet, all should

receive the initial briefing sheet with media

brief attached. Students should be tasked with

researching their role.

8:30am-9:00am Final

Preparations

and Arrivals

Convenors and facilitators should ensure the

COBR simulation room is fully equipped in terms

of table space, seating, pens/paper, ‘place

settings’, projector screen (for interjections)

and power ports for laptops .

7

9:00am-9:30am Role

Introductions

(should also

serve as an

icebreaker)

Students will take their assigned seats and

introduce themselves and their role to the other

members of their group: choosing how decisions

within the room are to be made.

9:30am-10:15am Complete Task 1

and Press

Release 1

*Students will debate the issues arising from

the initial briefing sheet: presenting their

conclusions within the press release.

Interjections will be used as specified.

10:15am-11am Complete Task 2

and Press

Release 2

*As above

11am-11:15am Short Break N/A

11:15am-12pm Complete Task 3

and Press

Release 3

*As above

12pm-12:45pm Complete Task 4

(Debrief)

*As above

12:45pm-1:30pm Finish for

Lunch

N/A

The following

day

Complete

Feedback Sheets

Students will be asked to fill in the feedback

sheets provided to be sent to the Convenor

At a Later time Press

conference

Students may at a later time give their ‘final

report’ as a filmed press conference which could

be used in outreach material.

8

Roles:

Prime Minister Leader of the

Opposition

Secretary of State

for Foreign and

Commonwealth

Affairs

Chancellor of the

Exchequer

Home Secretary Secretary of State

for Defence

Secretary of State

for Health

Secretary of State

for Transport

Secretary of State

for Energy

Secretary of State

for Work and

Pensions

Press and

Communications

Officer

Secretary of State

for Communications

and Local

Government

Secretary of State

for Environment,

Food and Rural

Affairs

Secretary of State

for Education

Civil Contingencies

Secretariat

(CONVENOR ROLE)

9

Role Sheet (to be filled in by student)

Role General Duties/

Responsibilities

Scenario-specific

Priorities

Extra Motivations

(Be Creative!)

(ie. Job/

position title)

(ie. General job

description)

(ie.Consider how

your areas of

concern may be

affected)

(ie. You may wish

to use this

crisis to gain

extra funding for

your department)

Suggested Resources:

● https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/cabinet-office/about:

Descriptions of government ministers’ roles

● http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18958032: a brief overview of

how the cabinet operates

10

“Warning and Informing the Public”:

Guidance on Media Handling and Communications:2

● The main purposes of government communications and media relations in a major

incident are: “To maintain confidence in the government; To support the response

objectives, specifically the prevention of loss of life and detection of further

incidents or developments; To keep the public fully informed; and To assist in the

management of community impact and any consequences arising from an incident”

● You must remember that under the Civil Contingencies Act of 2004 “there are two

aspects of the duty in relation to communicating with the public. The first is that

the public be made aware of the risks of emergencies. The second is that

arrangements are made to warn the public and that the public be provided with

information and advice as necessary” (7.1 cca)

● You must also (as stipulated within the CCA Regulations) keep in mind the need not

to alarm the public unnecessarily, when making arrangements to warn, inform and

advise them. (7.8,7.9)

2 (adapted from: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140122145147/http:/www.levesoni

nquiry.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/MPS-6-Guidance-on-Media-

Handling.pdf)

11

TASK 1 RESOURCES

12

Task 1 Instructions:

20/11/2015

The Cabinet Office

Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)

You have been summoned here today for an emergency meeting

concerning the potential outbreak of an infectious disease. You have

been provided with a report from the GSR, adapted from the DH

Pandemic Influenza National Framework. You have 45 minutes in which

to consider the information provided to you, and prepare a press

release detailing your response.

13

Initial Briefing Paper:

Key Information:

● Information supplied to us last week by the CDC suggested that an

American patient, suffering from a currently unidentified virus had

recently returned from holidaying in Europe.

● A further dozen cases have now been confirmed in the USA; a

spokesperson for the French government suggested Europe should be on

the lookout for people who may have been exposed to the patient.

● We have since received unconfirmed reports from several emergency

rooms of patients coming into A&E with symptoms similar to those seen

in ‘Patient Zero’.

Key Issues:

● With confirmed human to human contact, the virus currently

constitutes a ‘phase 4’ threat according to the World Health

Organization pandemic assessment framework

● Current modelling suggests that “from the time it begins in the

country of origin it could reach the UK within two to four weeks.

Once in the UK, it is likely to spread to all major population

centres within one to two weeks, with its peak possibly only 50 days

from initial entry”.

● Data shows that “it is unlikely that the UK could prevent importation

except by closing all borders entirely”

● “Public and political concern, general scrutiny and demands for

advice and information are inevitable at all stages of an influenza

pandemic.” It is important that during the management of your

response, the dissemination of effective advice and information is

prioritised.”

14

Example of Extra Source Materials:

*Extra Material

designed to help

make the simulation

more realistic

could include:

a:CDC Letter

b:Description of

symptoms

c:Details of

hospitals*

15

TASK 2 RESOURCES

16

Task 2 Instructions:

27/11/2015

The Cabinet Office

Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)

You have been provided with a further report from the GSR,

summarizing the developments of the last seven days. You have 45

minutes in which to consider the updated information provided to

you, and prepare a press release detailing your response.

17

Interjection 1: Information Briefing Paper 2: 1 week later:

Key Information:

● It has become apparent

that the virus has

indeed spread beyond

American borders.

Europe has responded by closing its borders.

● There have now been over a dozen confirmed cases in Britain, with

many more hospitals reporting suspected cases.

● With outbreaks having been identified in the UK, the threat level has

been increased to the UK Alert Level 3 (WHO level 6)

Key Issues:

● Exacerbated by the border closures and likely to worsen due to fear

of infection or actual illness: “Society is also likely to face much

wider social and economic disruption, significant threats to the

continuity of essential services, lower production levels, shortages

and distribution difficulties. Staffing is therefore the critical

element in business and service continuity plans.”

● Advising those with symptoms to stay at home in voluntary isolation,

or school closures may be an effective means of slowing the virus’

progression; but may exacerbate disruption.

● The key concern, is now the maintenance of vital public services and

essentials such as: energy and water, food and supplies, financial

services, public transport and general healthcare.

18

Example of extra source materials:

*Extra Material designed to

help make the simulation more

realistic could include:

a:Copy of the Border Closure

vote results

b:Image showing projected

spread in UK

c:News report showing that

concerns are being raised

about the impact of the virus

on certain services*

19

TASK 3 RESOURCES

20

Task 3 Instructions:

27/12/2015

The Cabinet Office

Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)

You have been provided with a further report from the GSR,

summarizing the developments of the last thirty days. You have

45 minutes in which to consider the updated information

provided to you, and prepare a press release detailing your

response.

21

Interjection 2: Information Briefing Paper 3: 1 month later:

Key Information:

● A UK level 4 threat has been confirmed, with approximately 23% of the

population affected by the virus. Severity of symptoms has varied,

with approximately 65% of the infected recovering with self-care, 20%

following hospital admission and with a 15% mortality rate.

● Disruption to goods and services, alongside increased pressures upon

the police services has led to a rise in crimes including looting and

rioting.

● There have also been renewed calls for the enforcement of the

quarantining of individuals who may be suffering from the virus.

Key Issues:

● Part 2 of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 “established a new generic

framework for emergency powers, allowing the Government to make

special temporary legislation (emergency regulations)where existing

legislation is insufficient to respond in the most effective way”.

● Key provisions under the Public Health Act include: “powers to seek

orders requiring a person to be medically examined, removed to, or

detained in hospital”, “powers to request a person does not attend

work; to require a child not to attend school”, and “the creation of

criminal offences where people expose others to the risk of

infection”.

22

Examples of Extra Source Material:

*Extra Material designed

to help make the

simulation more realistic

could include:

a:Photos of looting

b:Copy of police report

c:Evidence from twitter*

23

TASK 4 RESOURCES

24

Task 4 Instructions:

Three months have passed since your first meeting. An inquiry into

the governmental handling of the 2015 influenza pandemic has been

ordered. You should:

1. Assess the general impact and instigate/implement/support

recovery measures

2. Identify and act upon lessons learnt

3. Provide ongoing advice and support for the public

A Press conference will be arranged at a later date. It is

recommended that you evaluate your individual and group performance

over the last few months.

25

Interjection 3: Information Briefing Paper (Report), 3 months

later:

Key Information:

● With levels of infection having returned to below that expected

within a normal seasonal flu outbreak, the UK threat level has been

lowered; the pandemic has been declared over and Britain has now

entered its recovery phase.

Breakdown of the Impact:

● Health: The NHS coped with the situation with difficulty. Waiting

times for assessment and treatment were far below what was expected.

It is believed that the already-strained health services would have

been unable to cope with a second wave of infection.

● Services: The scale of staff absences disrupted the ability of

businesses and public services to meet the needs of the population.

In the private sector, food supply was the major cause for concern;

in the public sector, demand for medicine overwhelmed supply.

Businesses lost a lot of money and have demanded assistance from the

government in recovering.

● Law and Order: The impact of disruption to policing is estimated to

have caused £1.3billion worth of damage in terms of loss of stock and

vandalism. Calls for increased patrols have resurfaced

● Communications: Though government communication was largely coherent

and detailed, there have been issues with the consistency of the

messages delivered.

26

Examples of Extra Source Material:

*Extra Material designed to help make the simulation more realistic

could include:

a:Comedy show comments on government response

b:Image showing demands for an investigation

c:Renewed protests about NHS staffing

d: Evidence of suffering businesses*

27

Simulation Feedback Sheet:

To what extent did the simulation

exercise help to develop your skills in

the following areas?:

1= Not at all

5= Significantly

(Please Circle Appropriately)

Independent research 1 2 3 4 5

Analyzing and interpreting complex

information 1 2 3 4 5

Working in a group 1 2 3 4 5

Communicating 1 2 3 4 5

Working with limited time and information 1 2 3 4 5

Self-evaluation and reflection 1 2 3 4 5

To what extent did the simulation

increase or cement your awareness of

the following:

1= Not at all

5= Significantly

(Please Circle Appropriately)

The actors and institutions involved in the

policy-making process 1 2 3 4 5

The difficulty involved in multi-actor,

multi-interest and multi-level decision

making

1 2 3 4 5

The real processes and issues involved in

responding to major events 1 2 3 4 5

The role of the media and importance of

political communication 1 2 3 4 5

Ethical, legal and economic considerations

involved in policy-making 1 2 3 4 5

The Different agencies, public services,

international bodies and NGOs 1 2 3 4 5

28

1. What I liked about the simulation:

2. What could be improved:

3. Further comments: