Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling
description
Transcript of Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Coastal Wave – Surge ModelingR. Luettich, J. Fleming, B. Blanton, C. Kaiser, Jie Gao
NW NE
SW SE
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Project Overview• Advance the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling• Use state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling to meet
operational needs • Disseminate / train community in the state of the art in coupled wave – surge –
inundation modeling.
Project Relevance to DHS S&T Mission/Impact of Project• Risk determination and delineation - FEMA National Flood Insurance Program • Event based forecasting – partnership with NHC / NWS – Irene, Isaac, Sandy• Initial post storm damage estimates• Training exercises
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Technical Approach• ADCIRC + SWAN + ancillary support models• ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – ASGS• “ADCIRC Bootcamp”• NetCDF, OpenDAP, Thredds, data standards / Matlab tools • CERA website + outreach to EMs + moble apps
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Progress to Date• Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas• Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study• Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast
process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for
interoperability & tools to access / visualize results• Improvements to parametric wind model
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from H*Wind
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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.000.00
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f(x) = 0.693098200501339 xR² = 0.931434909541539
Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)
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Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from OWI Wind
(m)
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.000.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
f(x) = 0.880623496735267 xR² = 0.908947706731987
Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)
Mod
eled
Max
imum
Wat
er E
leva
tion
(m)
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from Asymmetric Vortex Gradient Wind
(m)
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.000.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
f(x) = 1.01019305952791 xR² = 0.904616682117848
Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)
Mod
eled
Max
imum
Wat
er E
leva
tion
(m)
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Progress to Date• Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas• Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study• Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast
process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for
interoperability & tools to access / visualize results• Improvements to parametric wind model• PRIME TIME USE
– Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week)– Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble– Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble– Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Progress to Date• Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas• Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study• Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast
process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for
interoperability & tools to access / visualize results• Improvements to parametric wind model• PRIME TIME USE
– Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week)– Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble– Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble– Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,
• 3 annual “ADCIRC Bootcamps” (25 – 35 attendees / year)
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
ADCIRC Bootcamp 2012
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Current Translation Activities and End Users • FEMA NFIP study – various working groups• ADCIRC bootcamp• NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites• ADCIRC_Viz• Briefings for USCG, USACE, NHC, public media
Products • Numerous publications and presentations• NC FEMA NFIP reports• NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites
Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013
Looking Forward • Careful evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN modeling system for recent storms • Enhancements to parametric wind model – see Jie Gao poster• Expansion of groups running ASGS around US and integration of results
from multiple sources• HURRICANE SANDY