Coal Transitions Overview Presentation 20092016 · 2016. 9. 29. · • The project consists of 2...
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Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations 41 rue du Four – 75006 Paris - France www.iddri.org Coal Transitions: Research and Dialogue on the Future of Coal Project Overview Presentation 20/09/2016 1 Thomas Spencer [email protected]
Transcript of Coal Transitions Overview Presentation 20092016 · 2016. 9. 29. · • The project consists of 2...
InstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRelations41rueduFour– 75006Paris- France
www.iddri.org
CoalTransitions:ResearchandDialogueontheFutureofCoal
ProjectOverviewPresentation
20/09/2016 1
Contents
1. Whythisproject?
2. Whoisparticipating?
3. Whatwillwedo?
4. Whatroleforstakeholderengagement?
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1. Why this project? • Coalmakesup28.1%ofglobalprimaryenergydemand
• Anumberofmajorcountriesarehighlydependentoncoal
• Addressingclimatechangeandotherenvironmentalissueswillrequireasignificanttransitioninthecoalsector
• Thereisincreasingrecognitionthatclimatepolicymustinvolvestrategiestogethighcarbonassetsoffline
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1. Why this project? • Forclimatepolicytobepoliticallyandsociallyfeasible,potential
social,politicalandeconomicimpactsmustbemanaged
• Currently,thereisalackofjoinedupandcomprehensiveresearchon:
• Effectivepoliciestodriveandaccompanystructuralcoalsectortransition
• Internationalmarketimplicationsofdifferentcountrytransitions
• Thereisalackofnationalandinternationaldialoguebetweenpolicy-makers,privatesectorandcivilsocietydialogueontheseissues
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1. Why this project?
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2030FossilFuelDemandinINDCscenario,bridge2Cscenario,and2Cscenario
Source:IDDRI,2015
2. Who is participating?
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FundedbytheKRFoundation
Plusadditionalcountrypartners:MelbourneUniversity
IndianInstituteofInformationTechnology
ProjectCoordinatorsIDDRI France
ClimateStrategies UK
CountryTeamsIndianInstituteofManagementAhmedabad
IIMA
TsinghuaUniversity
China
AustralianNationalUniversity
Australia
UniversityofCapeTown ,EnergyResearchCentre
SouthAfrica
GermanInstituteforEconomicResearch
Germany
InstituteforStructuralResearch
Poland
3. What will we do?
• Theprojectconsistsof2interlinkedcomponents:
• Multidisciplinaryresearchatnationalandinternationallevel• Stakeholderengagementanddialogue
• Theresearchagenda
• Quantifiednationalpathwaysforcoaldemand,production,tradeforAustralia,SouthAfrica,India,China,GermanyandPoland
• Quantitativeandqualitativenationalcasestudiesonissuesrelatedtocoalsectortransition
• Areportonlessonslearnedfrompreviousstructuraltransitions• Globalquantitativescenariosforglobalsteamcoaltrade
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3. What will we do? • Countryscenariosfor“(I)NDC”and
“2C”developedusingnationalmodellingtoolsandexpertjudgement
• Acommonreportingtemplatewillensuretransparency,comparabilityand“dialogue”betweenmodels
• GlobalcoalsectormodellingwillbeconductedusingCOAL-MOD
• Severaliterationstoexploreconsistencyandinteractionsbetweennationalandglobalscalecompositepicture
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Countrypathways
Globalcoalsectormodelling
3. What will we do?
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3. What will we do?
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3. What will we do?
• Nationalcasestudies:• Australia:policyapproachesandpoliticaleconomyofcoal
sectortransitionintheLatrobeValley• SouthAfrica:justtransitionforSouthAfrica'scoaleconomy:
optimizingconstrainedresourceextractionandusefordevelopment
• China:strategicapproachestomanagingcoalovercapacityinthepowersector
• Germany:policyapproachesandpoliticaleconomyofcoalsectortransitionintheLausitz region
• India:energysectortransitionoptionstomanagecoaldependence
• Poland:managinglabour marketimpactsofcoalsectortransition
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3. What will we do
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0
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100
150
200
250
300
GW
Risk ofovercapacity incoal generation – actual investment versusscenariosforChina
Historicalinvestment- Netchange2010-2015
Futureaggregateinvestmentbenchmarks- Netchange2010-2020
Futureaggregateinvestmentbenchmarks- Netchange2020-2030
3. What will we do?
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Nosupport
Compensationorgrandfathering
(backward-looking)
Structuraladjustment
assistance(forward-looking,narrow)
Adaptivesupport(forward-looking,broad)
Consum
ers/h
ouseho
ldsNosuppo
rt
Newpoliciesthatraiseconsumerpricesortaxesarefullyorpartiallyoffsetforallorsome(e.g.low-income)households
Consumers(orasub-set,eg.low-income)aresupportedtoadapttothenewpolicy
-
Workers
Nosupport
Compensationforlosses Workersaregivencashorin-kindassistancetoassistingthemtoretrainintonewjobsand/orrelocate
Workersaregivenstrongsupportnotonlytofindnewjobsbuttomaintainexistingordevelopnewvaluedattachments(ofthekindthatcannoteasilybecompensated),e.g.workofasimilarsocialstanding,inthesameindustryand/orsameplace.
Comm
uniti
es
Nosupport
- - Communitiesinwhichindustrieshavedeclinedaresupported(e.g.throughpublicinvestmentininfrastructure,skills,industrypolicy)
Corporati
ons Nosupport
Newpoliciesthatadverselyaffectthevalueofcorporateassetsareaccompaniedbycompensationforlostassetvalueorexistingassetsare“grandfathered”
Businessesareprovidedcashorin-kindassistancetoadapttonewpolicy
-
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4. What role for stakeholder engagement
• Aprojectwithnotaboos,no“aprioris”,andbasedontrusteddialogue• Stakeholderengagementisatthecoreoftheproject• AllstakeholderinteractionswillbeunderChathamHouseRules
• TheenvironmentalconstraintandtheParisAgreementformanimportantpointofdeparture
• Therewillbe:• Threestakeholdermeetings(likethisone),plusin-country
stakeholderengagement• Aprojectadvisorygroupwillestablished• Alarge-scaleinternationalroundtabletowardstheendoftheproject• Awebsitewillbeupandrunningsoon:www.coaltransitions.org
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