CNX FMCG 25530 6 -0.3 14.0 BSE Oil & Gas 14752 30 6.1 36.1...

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

August 30, 2017

Monthly Technical

Runway clear; Nifty to challenge life-time highs

Domestic equity benchmarks touched fresh life-time highs at the start of

August 2017 before entering into a corrective phase amid profit booking

as risk-off sentiment was triggered by rising geopolitical tensions on the

Korean peninsula along with the Doklam standoff. After the initial down

move from life-time high of 10137 to 9685, the Nifty has been undergoing

a steady base formation between the broad range of 9700 and 9950 over

the last three weeks.

What we expect

We believe the market has undergone a round of healthy corrective

consolidation in August 2017. The market has displayed resilience in

the face of turbulent global cues and absorbed a range of adverse

events like rising geopolitical tensions, FII outflows, Infosys boardroom

tussle while protecting the earmarked support base of 9700 over the

last four weeks. We believe the strong base formation above 9700 has

laid the foundation for the next up move within the structural uptrend.

We reiterate our positive stance and advocate that the current

consolidation should be used as an incremental opportunity to enter

into quality stocks in a staggered manner to ride the next up move

We believe a decisive close above the upper band of the current

consolidation range above 9950 will trigger short covering in the

market and provide the necessary impetus for challenging the recent

life-time high of 10137 over the coming months

Key market internals substantiate overall positive price structure…

Time wise, the Nifty has so far taken four weeks under the corrective

phase while retracing about 61.8% of its last rising segment (9448 to

10137), which occurred in five weeks. The bulk of the price wise

correction occurred in just a week, post which the index entered into a

base formation phase in the last three weeks. Almost equal time wise

consolidation and limited price wise correction highlight the robust

price structure and quantify this as a healthy corrective phase within

the larger degree uptrend

The broader markets represented by the midcap and small cap indices

posted a strong recovery after testing their May 2017 lows post the

sharp correction in second week of August. Thereafter, the broader

markets have consistently outperformed the benchmark over the last

three weeks. It highlights strong demand emerging in broader markets

and stock specific action prevailing in the market while the benchmark

is still undergoing a base formation

In the entire up move since January 2017 till date, the index has

witnessed maximum time wise consolidation for five weeks. In the

present scenario, with four weeks of time wise consolidation above the

key value area of 9700 already in place we believe the index is well

poised to resume its upward momentum over the coming month

Based on the aforementioned observations, we reiterate our positive

stance and conclude that the current corrective phase forms part of the

larger degree uptrend. Going forward, we expect the index to conclude

the ongoing secondary consolidation and resume its primary uptrend to

challenge its recent life-time high of 10137 over the coming months.

Therefore, it presents an incremental opportunity with favourable

risk/reward to enter quality stocks in a staggered manner to ride the next

up move within the larger degree uptrend.

Bia74

Indices Snapshot

% from 3-month 12-month

Indices 200 EMA % chg % chg

Sensex 31388 13 1.7 11.8

CNX Nifty 9796 6 2.9 13.3

CNX Mid Cap 17956 6 4.6 18.8

CNX Small Cap 7522 7 7.6 24.5

CNX IT 10506 0 -0.9 -0.6

BSE Auto 23455 14 -1.2 8.1

CNX Pharma 8865 -13 -0.3 -22.4

CNX FMCG 25530 6 -0.3 14.0

BSE Banking 27261 24 4.2 22.9

BSE Oil & Gas 14752 30 6.1 36.1

BSE Metal 12950 31 16.3 31.6

BSE Capital Goods 17116 15 -1.4 15.5

BSE Power 2232 12 2.1 7.5

BSE Realty 2080 30 11.0 36.6

BSE PSU 8507 18 -0.4 14.9

* Closing Price of Aug 29, 2017

Close

Source: BSE India, NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

* BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap

indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have

considered the CNX IT, pharma, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap

indices for reference

Top picks for September 2017

Ambuja Cement

All stock recommendations have been initiated on i-click to gain

prior to releasing of report. Exact timings mentioned at bottom of

the rationale mentioned later in the report

Performance of stock recommendations (January

2017 till date)

Total Recommendation 25

Positive 19

Open 0

Strike rate 76%

Avg. return on positive call 13%

Research Analyst

Dharmesh Shah

[email protected]

Nitin Kunte, CMT

[email protected]

Dipesh Dagha

[email protected]

Pabitro Mukherjee

[email protected]

Vinayak Parmar

[email protected]


Support base fortified at 9700 region...

The index has respected its earmarked value area of 9700 during the

current corrective phase precisely in line with our expectation as

highlighted in the earlier edition of this report. We do not foresee the

index going below the 9700 support zone as it is the confluence of the

following technical parameters:

As per the change of polarity principle, the upper band of June 2017

consolidation and recent breakout area of 9700 has reversed its role

and is providing support in the present scenario.

61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last rising segment (9448 to

10137) is placed at 9700

The lower boundary of the expanding channel encompassing the

up move since April 2017 till date is placed around 9740 region

Momentum oscillators

Among oscillators, the weekly RSI is seen rebounding from its bull market

support base placed around 55-60 reading while the short-term stochastic

is at the cusp of generating a positive crossover above its three period

average from the neutral zone of 31 after working off its overbought

conditions seen during the previous month’s rally and supports

continuance of the up move, going forward.

NSE Nifty CMP - 9796

Exhibit 1: NSE Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Weekly RSI as well as stochastic are rebounding from respective support

threshold and support continuance of the up move going forward

7893

Nifty attractively poised to resume its uptrend after

steady base formation above key value area of 9700

Support base @ 9700

- Breakout area of June

2017 consolidation

- Lower band of

expanding channel

- 61.8% retracement of

last up move

9119

6825

10137

9700


Nifty Bank (24107) – Attractively poised at key value area…

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Generic Futures– Weekly Bar Chart


The Nifty Bank index witnessed a round of

profit booking after the RBI cut policy rates by

25 bps at the start of August 2017, which was

in line with market expectations. The index had

already seen a sharp up move in anticipation of

the rate cut in July 2017 and the subsequent

round of profit booking is a normal phenomenon

The monthly price action has formed the

biggest bear candle in the entire up move since

January 2017 highlighting the broad based

profit booking trend after the strong rally in July

2016 approached the upper band of the major

rising channel in place since March 2016. The

index, however, carries a higher high higher low

on the monthly scale for an eighth month in a

row. Structurally, the current decline has the

underpinnings of a healthy corrective phase

within the larger degree uptrend. We believe

the index is attractively poised after a decent

price wise and time wise correction and

provides incremental buying opportunity to ride

the next up move within the structural uptrend

Time wise, the index has spent five weeks

under a corrective phase while price wise it has

retraced just 61.8% of its preceding four week

up move (23007 to 25260). Extended time wise

consolidation and limited price wise correction

is the hallmark of a healthy corrective phase

and highlights the overall robust price structure

It has been observed in the entire up move

since January 2016, the intermediate corrective

phases have not lasted more than four to five

weeks. In the present scenario, with five weeks

of corrective consolidation already in place, we

believe the ongoing secondary corrective is

approaching maturity and the index is set to

resume its primary uptrend in the coming

month. We expect the index to resolve higher

from here on and head towards 25060 in the

coming month. The high formed post RBI policy

session (25060) will act as an immediate hurdle

for the index in the coming month

After the initial price correction, the index is

witnessing a base formation above its support

zone of 23800-24000 over the last three weeks.

We do not expect the index to go below the

23800-24000 value area as it is the confluence

of following technical parameters:

As per change of polarity, the recent

breakout area and upper band of June 2017

consolidation placed around 23900 has

reversed its role and is providing support to

the index in the present scenario

Bullish gap area formed on July 13, 2017 is

placed between 23810-23721

61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last

rising segment is placed at 23870 region

Among oscillators, the weekly stochastic has

approached oversold threshold with a reading of

20 while the 14 week RSI has gradually eased

off towards its major rising trend line and

support pullback efforts in the coming month

Weekly RSI is approaching its major rising trendline

Support@

24000-23800 20934

17617

20650

13406

Weekly Stochastic is poised at oversold threshold

25260


BSE sectoral merry-go-round

In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral

indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of

the 11 major sectors of the BSE relative to the Sensex with the y-axis

plotting the relative price momentum in the past 12 months and the x-axis

plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four

quadrants.

Leadership quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which

represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum

vis-à-vis the Sensex.

Weakening quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where

the relative price of a sector has started to deteriorate and momentum

has started to slow.

Lagging quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the

relative price of a sector has become negative with momentum

suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.

Improving quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where the

relative price trend of the sector has started to rise with momentum.

In summary, if a sector appears in the top right quadrant, it indicates the

sector is trending higher and outperforming the benchmarks. If a sector

appears on the bottom left it indicates it is trending lower. Sectors

appearing on the bottom right indicate they are underperforming the

benchmark while if they appear in the top left it suggests an improving

price momentum.

Note: BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of

historical data, we have considered the NSE IT, pharma and FMCG indices for reference

Exhibit 3: BSE sectoral indices relative performance


Sector rotation monitor

What each quadrant indicates

Sectors in the top right quadrant indicate

strong trending sectors

Cyclicals near neutral zone amid pick up in

select laggards: The BSE banking, FMCG and

auto sectors moved towards the neutral zone as

the sectors consolidated their recent gains.

Going forward, we expect these sectors to

resume their up move after the recent

consolidation. The Realty index saw profit

booking on expected lines as it surrendered the

momentum within the leading quadrant after the

recent outperformance

BSE capital goods index has further drifted

towards the weakening quadrant suggesting

further consolidation. Going forward, we expect

stock specific outperformance to continue from

this space

BSE metal index has seen a pick-up in relative

momentum and is at the cusp of re-entering the

leading quadrant implying that the consolidation

over last couple of months is approaching

maturity. This sector is set to resume its

momentum, going forward, thereby presenting

buying opportunities

BSE IT index remain at the improving quadrant

implying consolidation in this space, with stock

specific action

BSE oil & gas and PSU indices has seen a pick-

up in relative momentum after slipping in the

lagging quadrant implying consolidation over the

last couple of months is approaching maturity

BSE healthcare has moved higher in the lagging

quadrant signalling a pause in the recent

downtrend The sector is likely to enter

consolidation phase, going forward


Sectoral performance – Relative to benchmarks

In order to closely gauge the underlying strength in respective sectors

vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative

(RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a comparative measure of

strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector.

While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general

market, i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending

market or going down less, in a down trending market or even rising.

While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad

equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may

be even going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is

falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line

indicates in line market performance going up or down by the same

magnitude.

The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are

outperforming and avoid sectors that are underperforming.

BSE Auto Index

The Auto Index reacted from the higher band of the rising channel amid

selling pressure in index heavyweights. In relative terms, the index

underperformed the benchmark mainly due to a decline in Tata Motors.

However, a micro view of sectoral constituents indicates stock specific

outperformance, which is likely to continue. Technically, we continue to

like Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp and TVS Motors.

Exhibit 4: BSE Auto Index – Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 5: BSE Auto Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


Relative Strength Comparative: Evaluating

the underlying strength

Ratio line is seen approaching its trend line support

and likely to revert higher

BSE Auto Index and relative to Sensex

Sector likely to resume its relative out performance...

20386

Index is seen entering a consolidation while

maintaining its positive structure

23209

15385

RSI continues to trend above bull market support of 45-50 zone

although remains ambivalent of short term direction


BSE Capital Goods Index

The capital goods index extended its round of consolidation. In relative

terms, the sector underperformed the benchmark. However, slower pace

of retracement of last rising segment indicates robustness in price

structure. We expect the sector to do well in medium term. RSC line

eased to its channel support and may revert higher given the bullish price

structure. Stocks like L&T, KEC are positively poised on technical charts.

Exhibit 6: BSE Capital Goods Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 7: BSE Capital Goods vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


NSE Pharma Index

Pharma stocks underwent another round of selling last month extending

their down trend. In relative terms, it remained the most laggard sector

against benchmark. After last month’s sell-off, prices have approached

the lower band of the channel and momentum oscillator has developed

positive divergence against price. Going forward, we expect relative

underperformance to continue as the sector enters a consolidation phase.

Exhibit 8: NSE Pharma Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 9: NSE Pharma Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison


Relative Underperformance to stay...

Index is poised at lower band of channel

and likely to enter consolidation pattern

BSE Capital Goods Index and relative to Sensex

Consolidation augurs well...

RSC line seen easing down spelling

underperformance over coming weeks

Consolidation to act as launching pad for next up move

RSI remains in rising trajectory and taking

support at previous trend line breakout

RSC line continues to trend downwards scripting

continuation of relative under performance

NSE Pharma Index and relative to Nifty


BSE Oil & Gas Index

The Oil & Gas index continued its uptrend as it scaled new life-time highs.

In relative terms also, index maintained leadership profile. Going forward,

we expect the sector to trade with a positive bias with stock specific

action. Relative outperformance may continue. Gas distribution

companies like IGL, MGL and RIL stay structurally positive on price charts

Exhibit 10: BSE Oil & Gas Index Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 11: BSE Oil & Gas Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


NSE IT Index

The IT index extended its consolidation over the previous month amid a

host of news flow. While the relative underperformance of the index is

likely to continue for a while, the index has held its early 2017 lows

despite a host of negative news flow and is currently seen in a basing

formation process. Only a decisive resolution above the down trend

channel would indicate the end of the corrective phase. In relative terms,

the index is likely to continue its relative underperformance.

Exhibit 12: NSE IT Index Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 13: NSE IT Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison


Stock specific action…

Index likely to consolidate with positive bias...

Oil & Gas index scaled fresh life high powered by

strength in OMC’S and Gas distributors

Index is likely to extend its out performance over

medium term

The RSC remains in well defined down trend

maintaining negative bias on relative terms

IT index is likely to undergo basing

formation over few months

BSE Oil & Gas Index and relative to Sensex

Monthly RSI in rising trajectory at resistance

NSE IT Index and relative to Nifty


NSE FMCG Index

The FMCG index ex-ITC remained in consolidation. Selective

outperformance has continued in the space barring ITC. We maintain our

positive bias on the sector while in relative terms the index is likely to see

an outperformance. We remain positive on Nestlé, Manpasand Beverages

and Britannia Industries.

Exhibit 14: NSE FMCG Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 15: NSE FMCG Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison


BSE REALTY Index

Realty index took a breather after recent up move as it is poised at the

multiyear breakout levels around 2250. In relative terms, index is

expected to do well as it breaks out of a double bottom formation. After

an elongated multiyear down trend and underperformance, realty space

is witnessing positive developments on price charts. Stocks like Brigade

Enterprises, Godrej Properties and Oberoi Realty are attractively poised.

Exhibit 16: BSE Realty Index Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 17: BSE Realty Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


Consolidation augurs amid stock specific action…

Index at an inflection point...

On relative terms index is expected to enjoy

leadership profile barring ITC

Ratio line is seen breaking out of double

bottom formation indicating change of guard

after multiyear under performance

Index at an inflection point as it

challenges 2010-2014 peaks

NSE FMCG Index and relative to Nifty

Weekly RSI is seen reverting from oversold zone

BSE Realty Index and relative to Sensex

17406

23219 22716

19457

Monthly RSI is approaching overbought threshold

Index ex-ITC expected to

continue uptrend


BSE Metal Index

The Metal Index is set to extend its next up leg as it breaks above the key

trend line resistance. The robust price structure of most index

constituents may lead index higher. In relative terms, index is likely to

resume its outperformance after recent breather. We remain positive on

stocks like JSW Steel, Hindalco and Hindustan Zinc over medium term.

Exhibit 18: BSE Metal Index Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 19: BSE Metal Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


Relative outperformance to continue...

Metal index is seen breaking above

key long term trend line thereby

reinforcing positive bias

Ratio line is likely to head higher after

forming a higher low

BSE Metal Index and relative to Sensex


Stock Picks

Ambuja Cement (AMBCE)

Buying Range: ` 275.00–280.00 Target: ` 308.00 Stop loss: ` 262.00

Exhibit 20: Ambuja Cement – Weekly Bar Chart


Strategy Follow up – August 2017

Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment

26-Jul RCF Cash Buy 84.00 104.00 77.00 25.00 Target price achieved

28-Aug L&T Financial Holding Cash Buy 181.00 205.00 167.00 8.00 Booked 50% profit at 195.00

26-Jul Hindustan Zinc Cash Buy 280.00 327.00 262.00 7.00 Booked 50% profit at 300.00

23-Feb Axis Bank Cash Buy 521.00 610.00 479.00 -3.00 Square off at 505

26-Jul Emami Cash Buy 1105.00 1250.00 1040.00 -3.00 Square off at 1068

26-Jul Birgade Enterprise Cash Buy 284.00 335.00 262.00 -6.00 Square off at 267.00

Long term trendline breakout signals

continuation of the uptrend

The share price of Ambuja Cement remains in a

strong up trend forming higher peak and higher

trough in all time frame

The key observation on the price chart of Ambuja

Cement is that the stock has recently registered a

breakout above the falling trend line joining the

yearly high of 2015 (| 287) and 2016 (| 281)

currently placed around | 275 levels signalling

continuation of the current uptrend and relative

outperformance in the short term

The weekly MACD is in uptrend and is seen taking

support at its nine period’s average highlighting

strength and validates positive bias in the stock

We expect the stock to continue with its current

uptrend and head towards | 308 levels in the

coming month being the price parity with the

previous up move from | 191 to | 270 (270-

191=79 points) added to the recent trough of |

229 (229+ 79=308) project upside towards | 308

in the short term

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain

at 12:08 on August 28, 2017.

Price parity with previous

up move @ 308

287

191

281

Weekly MACD in strong up trend

270

229


Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Date Event

India

31-Aug Fiscal Deficit INR Crore

1-Sep Nikkei India PMI Mfg

5-Sep Nikkei India PMI Services/Composite

12-Sep Industrial Production YoY

12-Sep CPI YoY

14-Sep Wholesale Prices YoY

29-Sep Fiscal Deficit INR Crore

US

31-Aug Initial Jobless Claims

1-Sep Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

1-Sep Markit US Manufacturing PMI

1-Sep ISM Manufacturing

6-Sep Markit US Services PMI

15-Sep Industrial Production MoM

20-Sep FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)

22-Sep Markit US Manufacturing PMI

22-Sep Markit US Composite PMI

28-Sep Personal Consumption

28-Sep GDP Price Index

Eurozone

1-Sep Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

5-Sep Markit Eurozone Services PMI

5-Sep Markit Eurozone Composite PMI

13-Sep Industrial Production SA MoM

28-Sep Economic Confidence

28-Sep Industrial Confidence

China

1-Sep Caixin China PMI Mfg

5-Sep Caixin China PMI Composite

14-Sep Industrial Production YTD YoY

27-Sep Industrial Profits YoY

Japan

1-Sep Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

5-Sep Nikkei Japan PMI Services

5-Sep Nikkei Japan PMI Composite

12-Sep PPI MoM/YoY


21-Sep BOJ Policy Balance Rate

29-Sep Retail Sales MoM

UK

1-Sep Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA

5-Sep Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI

5-Sep Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI

5-Sep Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI


29-Sep GDP QoQ

29-Sep Nationwide House PX MoM


NOTES:

It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report

Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report

on closing basis.

The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the

position, it will be communicated through separate mail.

Trading Portfolio allocation

It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various

technical research products

Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to

allocate equal amount to each recommendation

Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation


Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Technical & Derivative Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]


Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify

that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was,

is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities

generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the

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The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein

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The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor

is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as

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recommendations. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks

associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and

may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject

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ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of

these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services

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CNX FMCG 25530 6 -0.3 14.0 BSE Oil & Gas 14752 30 6.1 36.1...

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Transcript of CNX FMCG 25530 6 -0.3 14.0 BSE Oil & Gas 14752 30 6.1 36.1...