18 April 2023

The 21 century: the end of car mobility as we know it

Wim Korver

Club of Amsterdam

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Car mobility growth comes to a halt, is this structural?

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Content

• Driving forces behind (urban) mobility• Four possible reasons for lower car use• Challenges: the sustainable city• (Possible) Solutions

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Economic growth = mobility growth

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Knowledge economy = growth of cities

Share of people living in cities

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Possible reasons for lower car use

1. Saturation level achieved• Everyone has a car

2. Internet society• Less need for physical trips

3. More international trips• Mobility occurs at another place

4. Behavioral change?• Do people favour other modes

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NL: still growth potential, no signals for saturation

Travel time constant during the last 15 years

Car ownership in NL is low: 500 cars per 1.000 inhabitants)

Italy: 600 cars per 1.000 inh.

USA: 800 cars per 1.000 inh.

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Internet society leads to less car use?

• Is Internet the transport mode of the future?• Or is it the self driving car?

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Historically: more communication leads to more physical trips

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No scientific evidence of lower car use as a result of the internet revolution

• Influence of the internet society on car use is the sum of substitution and generation

• Some car trips disappear (teleworking) and • at the time new trips are made.

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More international mobility: strong growth (+45%)

International travel: distance traveled by Dutch people

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20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bill

ion

kmD

is

Holiday

Other

Total

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But, limited influence on local car mobility, because:

• The share of international trips is 2% of al trips• Most international trips are short distance trips,

growth is mainly holidays trips to destinations further away

• Time spend on international trips is constant

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Less car use under younger age groups

Car mobility per person

Mode Trips between 1995-2009

Car -27%

Train +31%

Bus/tram/metro -46%

Bicycle -16%

Total -21%

Age group: 18-29 years

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Younger people:

• Favor city life• Follow higher education (in the city)• Increasingly live in 1 or 2 persons households• Use more and more sharing systems

(sharification)

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Younger people do own less cars

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Possible reasons for lower car use

1. Saturation level achieved NO

2. Internet society Could be

3. More international trips NO

4. Behavioral change? Yes

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So …

• Major reason for lower car use, is new behavior of younger age groups

• Aspects that play a role:• Younger people are more oriented on the city• Less orientation on ownership (car sharing)• Internet society leads (for these age group) to new

spatial patterns

• But also … financial crises, it could also be a temporal dip

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Challenges for cities

• Growth of the number of (young) inhabitants• On the long term: major environmental

challenges: health and climate problems• And accessibility, traffic safety as well

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The sustainable city: HealthCars kill people

Lower life expectancy in months due to small particles (source: EU)

NL

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The sustainable city: Climate Transport becomes major source CO2 emissions

Expected CO2 emissions, EU-27

Transport related CO2 emissions

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Solutions

• Less urban car use is needed• Clean technologies (e.g. electric vehicles) will

help, but will not be enough• Higher densities• Sustaining the new transport behavior

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Higher densities lead to lower CO2 emissions

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Invest in sustaining the new transport behavior of the younger age groups, for instance

• Life event: the step from studying towards working life

• PartYcipation: inhabitants create there own environment

• Support Sharification: peer-to-peer systems, car sharing, bike sharing, etc.

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Conclusions

• (Major) Cities will continue to grow• Urban mobility will continue to grow

• Strong growth trips to and from the cities• Alternatives for the car are available

• Challenge: sustainable growth• Higher densities• Livable cities need policies to make the new transport

behavior structural