Cloud and Desktop Developer Landscape

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Content About this report Key Insights 1. Developers don’t like to stay in their boxes 2. Amazon’s Cloud covers the western World 3. Desktop developers are using web technologies 4. Cloud computing is a choice, not a promotion 5. Advertising: the uncatchable golden goose 6. Plug-In code is reducing development time 7. A third of Cloud developers seek support daily 8. The Browser is the modern desktop storefront 9. Amazon is multilingual, but Java is universal Conclusion Methodology

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9TH EDITION DEVELOPER ECONOMICS

13,000+ IOT DEVELOPERS SURVEYED

140+ COUNTRIES COVERED

Key questions that this report answers: What kind of applications are they creating

What languages do they use

What tools are being used to speed development

How do developers make use of developer-support programs

How are they planning to make money from their apps




METHODOLOGY

This report is based on a large-scale global online developer survey designed, produced, and carried out by VisionMobile over a period of five weeks between May and June 2015. Developer Economics 9th edition reached 13,000+ respondents from 149 countries around the world. As such, it is the most global research on mobile, desktop, IoT and cloud developers combined ever conducted.

Respondents were asked to self-identify as mobile, desktop, IoT or cloud developers, or a combination of those. Data on cloud and desktop developers was used to draw up the charts and statistics used in the report.

To minimise the sampling bias for segment distribution across our outreach channels, we weighted the responses to derive a representative segment distribution. We compared the distribution across a number of different developer outreach channels and identified statistically significant channels that exhibited the lowest variability from the segment medians across our whole sample base. From these channels we excluded the channels of our research partners to eliminate sampling bias due

to respondents recruited via these channels. We derived a representative segment distribution based on independent, statistically significant channels to derive a weighted developer segment distribution. Again, this was performed separately for each of mobile, IoT, desktop and cloud. Within the survey specific questions asked about the use of developer support program. Developers were asked explicitly about which developer programs they used, and how they rated them against various criteria as outlined in the report. This data was combined with the segmentation and operational data gathered in the rest of the survey to draw up the conclusions in that section of the report.

The platforms, languages, and service providers included in our analysis were selected by VisionMobile analysts based on the answers to the survey questions and their estimation of the relevance of the platform. We aim for a representative sample that provides a meaning picture of the landscape, not an exhaustive list. The selection was made independently and was not affected by any business VisionMobile might have with these companies.


FULL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS

About the authors ······························································ 3

About this report ······························································· 5

Key Insights ······································································ 6

Developers don’t like to stay in their boxes ···························· 7

Amazon’s Cloud covers the western World ···························· 10

The Tide of Amazon Breaks on Eastern Shores ··························· 10

Being Big in America won't be enough for long ···························· 11

Desktop developers are using web technologies ······················ 13

Windows is still a Classic ···························································· 13

Linux is as popular as it looks, but only with developers ··············· 14

South Asia is going thin ······························································ 15

Cloud computing is a choice, not a promotion ······················· 17

Advertising: the uncatchable golden goose ···························· 20

Cloud developers have their feet on the ground ··························· 23

Plug-In code is reducing development time ··························· 25

Authentication services are putting end users into context ············ 25

A third of Cloud developers seek support daily ······················· 29

The Browser is the modern desktop storefront ······················· 32

Mobile practice moving to desktop platforms ······························· 32

Enterprises are still getting their apps direct ································· 35

Amazon is multilingual, but Java is universal ························ 37

Heroku – exploiting the niche carved by developers in a hurry ······ 39

Conclusion ········································································ 41

Methodology ····································································· 43


LIST OF GRAPHS & FIGURES

1. Half of professional developers work across desktop and

cloud

2. Amazon’s global domination isn’t complete, yet

3. The browser has become the biggest interface to the desktop

4. As experience goes so developers look to the clouds

5. Contract work is bread and butter, but device royalties is

gold

6. Advertising makes no money, but developers can’t shake off

the dream

7. Time to market is what drives developers to use external

APIs

8. Cloud developers value documentation and sample code

9. Desktop app stores still not making a big impression

10. Platform stores are still a minority option for desktop

software

11. Microsoft clouds attract Microsoft programmers

12. Python carves a niche on the Mac, and a home on Linux


ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Bill Ray Senior Analyst

You can reach Bill at: [email protected] @bill4000

Bill wrote his first mobile app in 1988, and has been failing to make money out of them ever since. He architected set-top boxes at Swisscom and Cable & Wireless, and was Head of Enabling Technology (responsible for on-device software) at UK mobile network O2. He then spent eight years as a journalist at tech publication The Register, before joining VisionMobile as a senior analyst.

Christina Voskoglou Director of Research and Operations

You can reach Christina at: [email protected] @ChristinaVoskog

Christina leads the analyst team and oversees all VisionMobile research and data projects (big or small!), from design to methodology, to analysis and insights generation. She is also behind VisionMobile’s outcome-based developer segmentation model, as well as the Developer Economics reports and DataBoard subscription services. While at VisionMobile, Christina has led data analysis, survey design and methodology for the ongoing Developer Economics research program, as well as several other primary research projects.

Michael Vakulenko Strategy Director

You can reach Michael at: [email protected] @mvakulenko

Michael has over 18 years’ experience in mobile and telecom starting from working on first experimental 3G systems in Qualcomm. Later on Michael was part of several startups developing products in the areas of wireless, enterprise networking and mobile apps. At VisionMobile Michael works at the cross section of business models, economics and technology where he leads strategy practice for software-centric business models in mobile, Internet of Things and Connected Car.


INTRODUCTION

Taking data from the 9th edition of Developer Economics - the leading research program on software developers and the app economy – this report focuses on developers who are creating applications for deployment on desktop or cloud platforms, or (increasingly) a combination of the two. While mobile developers get a good deal of the limelight, and IoT is the trendy place to be, it is cloud and desktop developers who create the applications we all use every day, applications so ubiquitous that in some cases they have become all but invisible.

Desktop computing is the oldest paradigm, but one which is evolving rapidly as techniques developed in the virgin fields of handheld computing are being extended into the desktop and beyond. Locked-down ecosystems served by single application stores, cross-platform toolkits, and automated updates, are all

now part of the desktop experience, and spreading into cloud computing too.

The overlap between cloud and desktop computing isn’t just in the tools and facilities, but also in the audience using them. Cloud developers are creating desktop applications, and vice versa, as the skills are increasingly transferable.

The 9th edition of the Developer Economics survey reached over 13,500 respondents from 149+ countries and provides detailed data on thousands of desktop and cloud developers. The survey tracks developer experiences across platforms, revenues, apps, languages, tools, APIs, segments and regions, allowing us to extract information on the developer groups we’re most interested in.


DEVELOPERS DON’T LIKE TO STAY IN THEIR BOXES

Desktop and Cloud are not distinct communities, as the majority of developers involved in one area are at least dabbling in the other. Almost half of the combined population are making money from both arenas, as backend and frontend come from the same source.

Taking all the professional developers working on desktop or cloud we find that half of them (49%) are working, professionally, across both. Developers, and their employers, don’t necessarily label themselves as being involved in “cloud” or “desktop”. Many are creating applications which make use of a client-server architecture, and are involved in writing code at both ends.

This trend reflects the huge improvements in connectivity we have seen over the last few years, with many desktop applications assuming continuous (and effectively unmetered) connections to the Internet. High-profile examples include Adobe Photoshop and Microsoft Office 365, both of which offer off-line modes but are

designed to be closely integrated with their respective cloud services.

That architecture; of assuming connectivity while permitting offline use, has been replicated across desktop applications, few of which are now entirely local. The advantages of subscription billing, and data sharing, are overwhelming, and forcing every desktop application to have a cloud component. Creating those components requires that every desktop developer have at least a passing knowledge of the cloud.

But despite the overlap the barriers to entry for desktop development are lower, and that is reflected in the high proportion of amateur desktop developers. 49% of those involved in desktop development are pursuing it as a hobby or to develop their skills, so half are professionals. For cloud computing that number jumps to almost two thirds, 64%, with amateurs firmly in the minority.

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DESKTOP DEVELOPERS ARE USING WEB TECHNOLOGIES

The web browser has become the default platform for desktop applications, thanks to its ubiquity and cross-platform nature. Developers targeting the browser get a free foot into mobile, and access to the layout tools and high-level languages available through web-based interfacing.

The browser has become the preferred platform for desktop developers, in every region with the notable exception of Eastern Europe, where Classic Windows and the browser compete for dominance.

Since the birth of the world wide web there has been a strong feeling that the browser would provide a better interface for local, as well as remote, computing. Microsoft’s experiments with the Windows Active Desktop – an attempt, launched in 1997, to place the browser as the primary desktop interface – proved a step too far, but the concept is still popular and forms the bases for Google’s ChromeOS.

We know that many developers are working on both backend and frontend projects, bridging the traditional separation which pushed

developers into separate roles. That separation was largely born of the technical differences between the ends of a client/server application; different languages, architectures, and methodologies, which have largely disappeared as software development of all kinds has converged on high-level languages and multiplatform toolsets.

A developer skilled in JavaScript can apply those skills to both ends of an application, just as modern versions of Java, Python, Ruby and Visual C++ can all be used to create cloud, and desktop, applications. This contrasts with the environment a decade ago, where client-side programming was all in HTML and servers were programmed in PHP or arcane scripting languages.

In such an environment it is less surprising that so many developers are looking to use the browser as the primary platform for the desktop development. These developers are not using the browser as an interface to locally-running applications, but are targeting the browser as the interface to their client/server applications.

2


Cloud developers have their feet on the ground Amongst the cloud development community contract work is the most popular revenue model, which could be considered surprising given the relative immaturity of the paradigm. In other fields we have seen the proportion of Guns for Hire increase as the market matures and hobbyists turn professional, but in cloud computing that trend is less obvious. Cloud computing offers opportunities to many companies from outside the traditional IT industry, and in those instances the use of developers under contract is often preferable, or a precursor, to long-term investment in staffing. Despite its popularity cloud contracting isn’t attractive for everyone. Almost half of cloud developers who are contracting make more than $2,000 a month, making it viable for many, but not all.

Cloud developers are not immune to the lure of easy money promised by advertising – a significant proportion of cloud developers are trying to make money from advertising, but well over half (54%) are failing to make even $500 a month. Advertising may only be part of their revenue stream, as developers might adopt more than one revenue model, but either alone or in combination it is clear that advertising is not delivering for the majority of developers.

Subscriptions are the most-important source of revenue to many, and generate significant income. This move towards providing software as a service, rather than a product, is a well-recognised trend, but it is good to see it reflected in the revenue figures. Charging users to download software is an outdated distribution model, across every platform, and cloud developers – aided by their ability to dynamically manage access to their software - have been quick to embrace subscriptions as an alternative.

Selling physical products is less popular, but almost as successful. Only 6% of cloud developers are making money from physical-goods e-commerce, but those who do are making a good revenue. This revenue, and the involvement of cloud developers, reflects the proportion of the Internet which is still focused on replicating retail operations. While generic product stores proliferated in the early development of e-commerce there is now a need to differentiate services, and those selling physical products are expected to engage with their customers in a much-more holistic fashion.

With e-commerce providing such an effective source of revenue, and competition in on-line sales driving the need for ever-greater differentiation, it seems likely that e-commerce will be increasingly important to cloud developers over the next few years.


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distilling market noise into market sense

Cloud and Desktop Developer Landscape

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